Old Media has mostly ignored Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's poor showing among non-African-American voters, even though it was obvious way back in the early-March Ohio and Texas primaries. To the degree that there has been coverage of the situation at all, it has been presented as if there is something wrong with the voters, not Obama himself or his "message." Clay Waters at NewsBusters noted the most egregious example of this thought process ("Hillary Winning Too Many White Votes") when he reviewed recent coverage in the New York Times on Wednesday.
While at the same time decrying the injection of race into the campaign when anyone suggests that Obama pastor Jeremiah Wright's "white supremacy" shtick is relevant, Old Media is mere inches away from calling the vast majority of non-African-American voters in at least eight states racists, aren't they?
Here is how the last nine major primaries (with apologies to Rhode Island and Vermont) have gone for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Take a good look, because I don't think you'll see these stats anywhere else:
Sources:
- Vote percentages -- Ohio, Texas, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon.
- African-American (AA) percentages of population -- Wikipedia entries for the various states.
- AA percentage of total turnout -- Mostly from the FiveThirtyEight.com blog; most recent figures are best estimates based on previous primaries.
- Obama percentage of AA vote -- Mostly from "Democratic Exit Poll Results" at Fox News election coverage site; most recent figures are best estimates based on previous primaries.
- Obama percentage of non-AA vote -- Calculated considering other factors just described.
Of the nine states, all went to Bush in 2004 except PA and OR. Of course a lot can happen in 5-1/2 months, but Obama's horrible performance with non-African-Americans in every one of the Bush 2004 states would make them out of reach if the election were held today (except IN, which could be explained by a next-door-to-Illinois effect, and appears just as out of reach), and could swing Pennsylvania in the red-state direction. The fact that Obama's problem isn't present in Oregon, which is almost surely a Democratic presidential win no matter who is on the ballot, is of little significance.
It's unusual to have to admit that Hillary Clinton has a valid point about anything -- but she has a point when she talks about electability, and Old Media wants nothing of it.
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters
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AMERICA To the tune of
May 23, 2008 - 10:02 ET by ledurchiAMERICA To the tune of Steppenwolf’s “The Pusher”From the 2008 release "Obama for President"
Words by Jeremiah Wright
You know I've preached a lot of crap
O' Lord, I've told a lot of lies
But I never preached nothin'
That my spirit could deny
You know, I've seen a lot of people walkin' 'round
With tombstones in their eyes
But America don't care
Ah, if you live or if you die
God damn, America
God damn, I say America
I said God damn, God damn America
You know that whitey, that whitey is a man
With the hate of blacks in his hand
Oh but America is a monster
Good God, it's not a natural land
That whitey for a nickel
Lord, will sell you lots of sweet dreams
Ah, but America ruin your body
Lord, it'll leave your, it'll leave your mind to scream
God damn, America
God damn, God damn America
I said God damn, God, God damn America
Well, now if Obama were the president of this land
You know, he'd declare total war on America
He'd cut it if it stands, and he'd shoot it if it run
Yes he'd kill it with my Bible and my razor and my gun
God damn America
God damn America
I said God damn, God damn America man
© Racist Music Inc. (PMI)
Amazing!
May 23, 2008 - 10:12 ET by MeanderingThis is amazing. Of the percentage of the African Americans that make up the many state's populations MS is the only one that had more than 50% of them vote for Obama. This is an awesome table! You really don't think the MSM will report on this? Can African Americans be racist against themselves??? That's Awesome!
I think....
May 23, 2008 - 10:42 ET by Tom Blumeryou're missing the point, Meandering. The AA% of total turnout column is the percentage of all Dem primary voters who were AA.
AAs voted for Obama by 84% or more in every state that was exit-polled, and more than likely voted 90% or so for Obama in the later states were exit polls didn't track the black vote.
No surprise in OR and really
May 23, 2008 - 10:55 ET by CapitalismRulesNo surprise in OR and really no surprise in MS with 15%, but taken together this is a HUGE problem for Obama. He's noplace NEAR what he needs in white voters in any of those states. Any calculation as to how many Electoral Votes that represents that I guess his campaign at this point as to assume he'll lose?
Mistaken, sort of
May 23, 2008 - 11:02 ET by MeanderingThanks Tom, I can see how what I wrote was unclear. What I meant was I was amazed that out of (let's say Ohio) 12.7% of the AA population in that state, only 18% came out to vote in the Demo primary. So I agree with you that even thought 87% of the AA total turnout is high its only 18% of the 12.7% of the AA population. Am I making sense now?
In other words, we were lead to believe that Obama had the AA vote, but really he doesn't.
No that's not it either
May 23, 2008 - 12:10 ET by Tom BlumerOut of every 100 Dem primary voters in OH, 18 were AA. In TX, it was 19 of every 100, etc.
This occurred because AAs are overwhelmingly Dems already, and they may have turned out disproportionately. How relatively big either factor is I don't know.
(For anyone who saw this comment earlier, I added "out of every" at the beginning, which I had meant to include earlier. Meandering, Obama does seem to have the AA vote locked up.)
»→ But it's not racist
May 23, 2008 - 12:17 ET by Cool ArrowWonder how many of these AA's are voting for the first time in their lives, even though many are up into their 60's.
But of course, it's not racially motivated.
LYDSEXICS UNTIE!
There was a suprise in Oregon
May 23, 2008 - 17:27 ET by homemkr99I have to agree that to a point there was no suprise in OR, BUT what the media and others fail to see is that the Obama's win in OR was not by the majority that was predicted. The support of HC was much higher than many anticipated.
The Oregonian was shameless in their support of Obama. HC got little to no coverage. McCain only gets poor reporting. If you have been reading the "letters to the editor", most supporters of HC have pledged NOT to vote for Obama.
Obama does not have the support of most white, working class voters.
Of course,
May 23, 2008 - 14:29 ET by docbthe AFA community is not monolithic any more than the white community votes in block...More to the point, the polls today are seriously hampered by the fact that pollsters can only use land lines to get information. This leaves a huge hole in the electorate of today.
In other words, it is a badly managed crapshoot with no solid credentials under it. Less than an educated guess.
Obama WILL run WITH Hillary
May 23, 2008 - 10:20 ET by CapitalismRulesNo question that this guy HAS to pick Clinton as his running mate if he wants white votes. Anyone on board with this or am I shooting from the hip?
I hope not!
May 23, 2008 - 10:24 ET by MeanderingThis is what I fear because Obama would get the white vote, so I hope they keep going at each other so this doesn't happen.
Sheets
May 23, 2008 - 10:32 ET by Burgherwhy not Robert KKK Byrd as VeeP. Obamanator will at leasr get WV.
Satan is pushing his
May 23, 2008 - 10:35 ET by CapitalismRulesSatan is pushing his snowblower.
I'm not exactly comfortable with it either
May 23, 2008 - 10:34 ET by CapitalismRulesWho else is he going to choose to get the most dems on board with him? But imagine what would happen if he gets the White House with her on his ticket-
That means if Obama dies in office, Clinton is president, if Obama and Clinton both kick it, Pelosi is president.....
Bad Options
May 23, 2008 - 10:36 ET by MeanderingThe options keep getting worse and worse.
It may be just wishful
May 23, 2008 - 12:19 ET by motherbeltIt may be just wishful thinking, but I'm not really sure HRC would do the trick for him.
I'm thinking that women might not be happy having the woman relegated to the #2 spot.
»→ motherbelt
May 23, 2008 - 12:23 ET by Cool ArrowObviously it's Obama's turn and not some woman's
I mean, haven't white women enjoyed the ultimate fulfillment of giving birth to little white baby Presidents for over 200 years?
/sarcasm intended.
LYDSEXICS UNTIE!
Professor Begala
May 23, 2008 - 10:45 ET by DocTop Democrat strategist Paul Begala: "We can't win with eggheads and African-Americans"
Just wondering...
May 23, 2008 - 10:50 ET by rsb1Are there figures available that would split out the far left liberal from more centrist liberal non-AA populations and how they voted? My question is whether the non-AA populations are shunning Obama because of his far-left policies. Perhaps that would be magnified in the general election when more non-AA voters will go to the polls. I wonder how the turnouts in the general election will reflect the actual populations. If the percentages voting are more reflective of the populations, how will that affect the outcomes?
I also wonder when someone in the MSM will mention that AA populations are apparently voting more nearly as a block than before, perhaps out of attitudes against the white candidates or in favor of the AA candidate. Or do Obama's policies really reflect the positions of a majority of AA populations?
Adding Hillary as VP does not necessarily add all the votes together. Hillary supporters will feel cheated that she is not top of the ticket. And if you hate one of the candidates, do you necessarily vote for the ticket because you like the other? My personal opinion is that Hillary does not want the VP slot, because Obama may not win, and you rarely get a second chance after you've lost the general once. She will want to try again in 2012 if she is not the nominee this time.
My Take
May 23, 2008 - 11:03 ET by CapitalismRulesOr do Obama's policies really reflect the positions of a majority of AA populations?
I would have to surmise that this is the case, no way that AAs would defect to someone like Keyes or Powell over Hillary just because he is black. And let's face it, many of them are not too hot on Clarance Thomas either.
My personal opinion is that Hillary does not want the VP slot, because Obama may not win, and you rarely get a second chance after you've lost the general once. She will want to try again in 2012 if she is not the nominee this time.
I believe you about her not wanting the VP slot, but her allegiance to the party I think would trump this. I truly believe that Hillary and Bill are that confident, misguided or not, that with her on the ticket they could NOT lose.
How is this any different
May 23, 2008 - 11:53 ET by ConservativeRexHow is this any different than any other election since at least 1980? No Republican ever gets more than 2 to 5% of the black vote. And still Republicans win nearly every national election.
Those are the figures that must be disheartening to the liberal black voters, they give 98% of their votes to the losing Presidential candidate and it is never enough. And it will never be enough. Which just points out how great our country is. All Americans are included in our government, no matter the representation.
Obama and Race
May 23, 2008 - 13:15 ET by PShannonhttp://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaRace.htm
Poll results the LA Times will never headline on the front page
May 23, 2008 - 18:56 ET by Gary HallPoll results the LA Times will never put on the front page.