St. Paul Pioneer Press Reporter Botches Food Inflation Report

Photo of Tom Blumer.

Twin Cities news consumers aren't well served, and it may get worse.

Avista Capital Partners, which owns the Minneapolis Star Tribune, said earlier this month that its investment in the Strib is performing so poorly that it had to be written down by 75%. Earlier, the New York Post reported the possibility that the paper might go bankrupt. That possibility will loom as long as the Strib, which many locals refer to as "Red Star Tribune," largely serves as the apparent PR outlet of the Democratic Farm Labor Party (the Gopher State's Democrats).

If a Strib bankruptcy were to occur, and it ceases publication, the St. Paul Pioneer Press is less than ready to step into the breach, at least if Tom Webb's article Thursday about recent food price inflation is any indication.

Webb's opening:

What's up at the supermarket? Prices for almost everything

Food inflation hit an 18-year high in April, with grocery prices rising 1.5 percent for the month, the government said Wednesday. Prices rose in every aisle - dairy, breads, meats, beverages, fruits and vegetables. It means $53 more a month to feed a family of four with a typical food budget.

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Jim Taranto at Best of the Web caught the obvious nonsense on Friday:

This would mean that before the 1.5% increase, the typical family of four spent $3,533 a month, or a hair under $42,400 a year, on food. No wonder America has an obesity epidemic!

I thought I would try to give the apparent best of the Pioneer Press's Webb the benefit of the doubt, and attempted to determine where he got his figure from.

Beats me.

I went to the USDA's web site, where it presents monthly updated costs for various levels of eating for food at home. I used the March 2008 costs at this link (PDF), and calculated the effect of a 1.5% increase using the (of course) "Liberal plan":

USDAfoodInflationEstimate0408

I can't for the life of me figure out where the $53 came from. Even the $911.10 in the "Moderate" column yields an answer of $13.67; if Webb erroneously double-counted and multiplied by 4, that's still a rounded $54, not $53. Perhaps a more "creative" reader can channel Mr. Webb's inner calculator.

Webb's figure got past the vaunted layers of fact-checking newspapers like the Pioneer Press allegedly have.

If Webb's numerical literacy is typical of newsrooms across America, that would go a long way towards explaining why the utter nonsense of last year's blatantly political and breathtakingly deceptive Food Stamp Challenges received very little scrutiny, and quite a bit of blind, fawning acceptance. Time after time, in city after city, those challenges repeated the patently false assertion that recipients have only $1 per person per meal with which to buy food, when the amounts involved are 28-70% higher, depending on family size (the benefit provided is about $1 per person per meal, because calculations based on family income and assets determine how much a family has and can afford to pay out of its own resources).

Based on the Strib's tribulations and the Pioneer Press's apparent inadequacies, the Twin Cities would seem to be fertile ground for an enterprising fair and balanced online hard-news publication.

Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.

—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters


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Typical innumeracy

In an earlier part of my life I was in a management role over several televsion newsrooms. Aside from the general liberal bias that is standard issue with reporters was an almost incredible innumeracy.

Any statistal factoid is to be swallowed whole, with no thought given to checking whether it meets any common sense order of magnitude check. The willingness to accept data without checking is a big piece of this, and is part of the same syndrome that has led us to worship at the altar of anthropromorphic global warming.

In a nation where stores shut down when the computerized cash registers crash because the staff can't make chage, I suppose it's not surprising but it is sure disappointing.

One possibility:

The Liberal Plan shows two scenarios of family composition so take $948.60 + $1106.60 divided by two to produce an "typical food budget" of $1027.60, then enter a typo in figuring the 1.5% you are looking for. Multiply the $1027.60 by .051 (assume a common typo of reversed digits here) to get $52.41, and round up to $53 because it covers the amount but uses fewer characters.

Other possibility:

Check the crystal ball...

Wow

That's creative and astute .... and not necessarily unlikely.

Thank you

It only requires one error, reversed digits, and that is an error that a person is likely to repeat even if they "check" their math. Of course, my teachers always stressed the importance of reversing the problem in order to check my work, like the calculation in the story that gave a monthly food budget of $3533, but many people don't seem to have gotten that lesson. 

Perhaps Webb should ditch his Chinese calculator...

...in favor of a nice Japanese one. :-)

Tom, I don't really see any subterfuge going on here. Just your basic fat-fingered calculator error.

As a former land surveyor, these errors are rather common. If anything he is guilty of failing to check his math.

I agree....

on no "subterfuge." The point is that Webb and no one else realized that the number doesn't pass the stench test. And there was no subsconscious filter in anyone asking "is it really that bad?" because they all inherently think that things really ARE that bad.

Right, Tom. It didn't even

Right, Tom. It didn't even occur to them that figuring just a quick 1% of $500 a month is only $5.00!

And although it's not chopped liver, and compounds, like interest, they probably figured that saying a food bill went up by only $14 a month doesn't sound like anything at all. So $53 a month sounded reasonable.

A point almost nobody in the media has made

Inflation compounds, just like interest. Exactly why this situation sucks so much for the poor, and is so good for obese government regardless of media math typos.
JMR

The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.

Tom, LOL, Hey, I didn't say he was smart.

Just that he has fat fingers.  :-)

And you are correct, as an error of this magnitude should have been easily caught prior to publication.

We are being smothered by government in this country. - Neal Boortz

Minnesota has always had a

Minnesota has always had a hard tinge of leftism to it. To this day, they still pride themselves on some Nordic notion of socialism. For the past 100 years, it was always a hotbed of communist agitation. Even Gus Hall was from Minnesota. 

The “Farmer Labor” party is a disgusting bunch. A book written some years ago by John Earl Haynes, Dubious Alliance: The Making of Minnesota's DFL Party, lays out how their was tons of communist influence in this party.

Rochester, Minnesota: A Fem_Leftist City!

Regardless of media math errors

1.5% inflation in food prices per month sucks. Not only that, it especially sucks for the poor people politicians of various sorts claim so-loudly to care about, despite those same politicians' behavior. Media bias/errors aren't the problem when it comes to inflation -- it's all obese government, folks. I spent the past few years here saying "inflation's coming" so I could now say these 4 words: "I told you so."
JMR

The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.

If you use the "misplaced

If you use the "misplaced decimal" theory and try the scenario with a $5.30 increase then the monthly food budged would be $353...I guess that would come in under the "super-duper thrifty"  plan!

 

I just happened to notice...

On the USDA website, the "Liberal Plan" "Family of 4" with "2-3 and 4-5 years" children shows the following "Monthly cost" for the noted months:

Jan '08 - $956.70

Feb '08 - $954.60 (-$2.10 or 0.22% drop from Jan '08)

Mar '08 - $948.60 (-$6.00 or 0.63% drop from Feb '08) and (-$8.10 or 0.85% drop from Jan '08)

So haven't the food prices been dropping for the last three months before they reportedly rose in April?

Please check me on the following:

April '08 - $962.83 (calculated as $948.60 X 1.015 according to the story)

Compared to Jan '08 - increase of $6.13 or 0.64% rise from Jan '08

There are always some increases and decreases in the cost of food due to a variety of causes, but it isn't nearly as exciting a story when it is compared to Jan '08, is it?   ;-)

Great point

about fluctuations.

Wow! People spend way too

Wow! People spend way too much money on food.  We eat really well at the amber house.  Gormet vegis, good meat, fruit, grains, fancy herbs like saffron... and we only spend $300, even with the King salmon and live maine lobster, at the most for our family of 5 (kids all over 6 years of age).  It is called a garden and a small farm opperation.  We save over $500 a month on food to live out in the country and we save over $1500 a year on property taxes and another $1000 a month on mortgage or rent costs.  (I could reply to this article or the previous one about the bad Americans who waste fuel by not living in the cities.)  I will say, though, the cost of food for our animals has over doubled in 2 years, way outpacing inflation.  Food costs are going to rise a lot this year if politicians don't remove their head from their behind over the biofuels issue.  It is probably too late for this year. 

welcome to my world

The Peoples Republic of Minnesota lies on the other side of the looking glass. The Red Star & Tribune is wholly Marxist and the Young Pioneers Press (Russian youth similar to the Hitler Youth for those of you who don't read history) is completely schitzophrenic, badly presenting both sides of the argument with leftist dribble and rightist (mangled) facts. They are purveyors of the "keep adding zeros until someone pays attention" method of journalism.

The people up here are 50/50 - 50% insane, 50% confused and indifferent. They keep voting for a utopian world view and the results are rampant crime from minorities, excessive taxation wasted on welfare and other scams, and Central Planning Commitee jewels like light rail going nowhere useful at 1.5 billion scheduled to double this year and a 20% ridership occupancy rate.

Wizard

You must live in the cities. Down here in Southern, MN, we are a lot more conservaive.