Did you know that 574,000 and 1.1 million more Americans had jobs in March than in February and January, respectively?
Seriously, as you can see on the right (data can be retrieved from this BLS page; select the very first "not seasonally adjusted" table).
Now the fact remains, as you can also see, that job growth during the past two months is nowhere near as great as it was during the same two months in 2006 (1.91 million) or 2007 (1.58 million). This goes a long way towards explaining why total employment, when adjusted for seasonality, fell 80,000 during March, and by 232,000 during the first quarter.
There's no denying that the employment situation has been deteriorating for several months, and I'm not trying to minimize that. What I am saying is that the "employees were thrown out on the streets during March" narrative cooked up by Old Media today, including the Associated Press's Jeannine Aversa, is clearly false, either because Old Media reporters and their editors don't understand a concept as basic as seasonality, or they don't want to.
Here are the relevant offending paragraphs from Aversa's report (host copy for future reference) today (the relevant raw-data job changes are in italics):
Employers buffeted by talk of recession slashed 80,000 jobs in March (actually, employers added a lower-than-usual 574,000 jobs in March) .....
..... Job losses were widespread in March. Construction, manufacturing, retailing, financial services and various business services all racked up losses (actually, every sector noted except manufacturing had gains). That overwhelmed gains elsewhere, including in education and health care, leisure and hospitality as well as in government (this sentence is thus false on its face).
In March, construction companies cut 51,000 jobs (actual was +49,000), factories eliminated 48,000 positions (actual was -19,000), retailers cut payrolls by more than 12,000 (actual was +53,000). Professional and businesses services lost 35,000 jobs (actual was +67,000) and temporary help firms cut nearly 22,000 jobs (actual was +20,000). Financial firms chopped 5,000 jobs (actual was +5,000).
When government hiring was removed, the numbers looked even worse. Private employers shed 98,000 jobs in March (actual was +474,000; 105,000 jobs were added in government during March, vs. the +18,000 seasonally adjusted amount inferred).
Beyond that, there's the annoying presumption on the part of Aversa and others that job reductions always occur because employers "cut" jobs. If a person leaves his or her job voluntarily or retires and isn't replaced, did the employer just "cut" or "chop" a job (with the heavy implication that some innocent person was thrown out of work)? Of course.
Naturally, seasonality goes in both directions. For example, in January 2008, there were 1.7 million fewer jobs than in December 2007. This is a normal post-Christmas season occurrence, and further illustrates why seasonally adjusting data is important and necessary.
Again, this isn't to say that the economy isn't in a rough patch. But it's a long way from March's easily reportable reality -- unadjusted job growth occurred, but not as quickly as in previous years, causing seasonally adjusted job growth to be negative -- to the patent fiction of "blood on the streets" being foisted on the public today.
Thousands of Old Media outlets already have and will continue to mindlessly relay the job-cut narratives of AP, the New York Times ("Unemployment Rate Rises After 80,000 Jobs Cut"), and others. No doubt politicians leverage it and pile on. But all the newsprint used, all the bandwidth burned, and all the uninformed rhetoric won't change the fact that in the real world, those cuts simply did not happen.
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters





















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Clearer stats would help
April 4, 2008 - 18:16 ET by nkviking75I don't mean to excuse the MSM, but it would help if the government would just report straight numbers rather than "seasonally adjusted" numbers. Then they should just explain the seasonal factors, such as "employees are hired on a temporary basis for the Christmas season, leading to an annual drop in employment numbers in January". Government agencies also spin.
When you put the clowns in charge, don't be surprised when a circus breaks out.
Valid point, but.....
April 4, 2008 - 18:44 ET by Tom BlumerSeasonality came into play so that all the seasonal factors didn't have to be explained over and over again, and to minimize mindlessly emotional reactions to big rises and dips.
The "problem" is that BLS developed its reporting format and style when its reports weren't read by anyone except reporters and politicians. It presumes that you know it's all framed in seasonally adjusted terms (if you go to the report, you'll see in the third para that something is described as NOT seasonally adjusted, implying that everything before and after is).
Oldtime reporters probably understood seasonality. Today's reporting shows that people like Aversa don't (or do, and are deliberately distorting). Unless she's out to distort, she wouldn't write as she did if she knew that real jobs weren't lost as she described. I just think she, and the media horde, are that ignorant.
BLS, unfortunately, needs to do as you suggest or clearly label every figure presented in its topline report as seasonally adjusted, or not.
I wonder
April 4, 2008 - 18:58 ET by 10ksnookerWhat shovelling snow week after week did to unemployment and retail sales for that matter. Hard to sell anything when your customers are all standing in their driveways either pushing their cars or shovelling snow.
Just saying ... cold is much worse than warm.
Of course
April 4, 2008 - 19:17 ET by Tom BlumerAnd March was ridiculously bad for snow.
the fact that in the real
April 4, 2008 - 20:14 ET by Conservative in the Artsthe fact that in the real world, those cuts simply did not happen.
Oh yea?!!
I got laid-off on Tuesday! I'm part of that rising unemployment rate.
Just ribbing you there, I get laid off every year at this time. I'm a seasonal worker with a teachers school year calendar. It's just so much fun to yell at the government and then in the very next breath ask for a check.
Amazing Numbers
April 4, 2008 - 23:29 ET by JoelCTTom, the pure number itself is just amazing to me. One Hundred Thirty Seven Million people are employed right now. With 300 million in America, if you subtract out the farm workers and the retirees and the kids and the stay-at-homes and people in prison and so on, dang near everyone is employed. Yet some Socialist Bozo working at a British newspaper earlier in the week said we're having a "Depression".
I'm with you. To write a newspaper column like this you either have to be a complete dolt, or else you are intentionally wanting to poison people's minds. Jeannine Aversa works for the AP, plus I am a little more cynical than you, so I believe she is the latter.
Tom
April 5, 2008 - 15:28 ET by Noel SheppardTom,
I have mixed feelings about this post mainly because we really do ignore the non-adjusted data for as you stated are obvious reasons. And, it works both ways.
For instance, last July, unadjusted payrolls declined by almost 1.4 million jobs. Yet, media reported the seasonally adjusted tally of a 57,000 gain. If they're lying today about job cuts, weren't they lying in August when they reported job gains?
The fact is that when it comes to this statistic, we really do ignore the unadjusted data because of the seasonalities. And, we do this knowing that sometimes the adjustments make things look better than they are, and sometimes they make things look worse.
Of course, on the flipside, I've often wondered how accurate the adjustments are. How often are the adjustments recalibrated to changes in the economy? I'm sure you've seen the same thing as I have in the past five years or so just how much the Household survey very often differs from the Establishment survey. Maybe the errancy of the seasonal adjustments is at fault. Possible?
In the end, I think there's a lot wrong with how we collect and disseminate this data that raises a lot of questions, and, sadly, allows for the numbers to almost always offer fodder for politicians on both sides of the aisle. ns
Noel
April 5, 2008 - 17:09 ET by Tom BlumerI agree that it cuts both ways, and I would have to check earlier reports where the seasonal number was a positive but actual hiring was negative to see how the media has handled those situations. I'll be looking at that in the future.
The context is that there wasn't blood on the streets (cuts, slashes, eliminations in Media lingo); there was a slower pickup than in previous years.You don't cut or eliminate a season job; you do that to a real one.
Every Feb. or March there's a comprehensive revision. I missed this year's, so I believe it must not have amounted to much. Prior comprehensive revisions have added as many as 900,000 jobs to previously reported figures during the past two years. That tells you that there are a lot of issues with how the data is accumulated and revised. I'm surprised that the press and the markets put so much emphasis on the most recent number and not the three most recent, or whatever.
And yes, as long as the data jump around so much, there will be opportunity for politicians to pile on. The narrative that Hill and Obama are jumping on that people are being thrown out of work is wrong, and is fed (on purpose?) by orgs like AP.