Of course, the expectations game can be frustrating, and we won't know for sure until the actual report is released Thursday at 8:30 a.m. But there appears to be remarkably good economic news ahead. Naturally, it is getting the barest of coverage from an Old Media business press corps that seems intent on talking the economy down.
First, a week ago Monday, MarketWatch's Greg Robb, in an article entitled "Economists think U.S. can dodge recession," said the following (bolds are mine throughout this post): "The economy grew at a 3.9% rate in the third quarter, and many economists expect an upward revision above 4.5% when the government revises the data on Nov. 29."
Then, at MarketWatch.com yesterday, ("Dollar under pressure as credit fears loom"; link requires free registration), reporter Lisa Twaronite got this quote from an industry expert:
"Even though the early indications from the weekend U.S. retail sales were not as poor as feared, and [third-quarter gross domestic product] is expected to be revised significantly higher later this week, the anticipation of more write-downs and losses related to the leveraged lending-subprime and otherwise-the credit-crunch to undermine growth in [the fourth quarter] and early 2008 weighs on the dollar," wrote currency analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.
Then there was this tidbit in the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday (link requires subscription). You would have no idea from the WSJ article's headline ("How Rio Tinto Defensive Moves Could Make BHP Billiton Blink") that this is coming. It starts the third of three items that originally came from behind the subscription wall at BreakingViews.com:
Credit Markets
In normal times, a U.S. recession would be a distant prospect. The biggest piece of economic data this week is the revision of third-quarter U.S. GDP growth rate, probably to a far-from-recessionary 5%. But these are not normal times.
If (emphasis "if") Thursday's actual result is 4.9% or higher, it will be the best GDP growth since the third quarter of 2003, and the second-best since the second quarter of 2000. See for yourself.
Chances are almost overwhelming that you haven't read about the predicted GDP revisions anywhere, because this Google News search on [US revised "gross domestic product"] (typed as indicated, for date range of November 19-27) shows that the predictions aren't being carried, or, as with the stories noted above, they are buried in otherwise downbeat reports.
As Larry Kudlow has often said (latest example here), it's the "Greatest Story Never Told."
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters
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Comments Policy
It's the looming election
November 27, 2007 - 15:11 ET by c5thenIf this were an "off year" or there happened to be a democrat in the Whitehouse, this would be all over the news. As it is, the liberal/socialist media do not want J.Q. Public to know that the economy is doing remarkably well and that there is cause for optimism. The G.W. Bush economy is the least reported and best kept secret in recent years. Any one who has listened to the MSM and invested defensively has lost many many % from their returns as a result.
The day that "politician" became a career choice is the day we started losing the Republic. Let's get it back! Fred08.com
bush economy
November 27, 2007 - 15:36 ET by johnGhow do you give credit for a good economy to a president? that's stupid, if you say that then clinton was an economic genius? i doubt you like the sound of that.
but that's not the point of my post, rather that mr. blumer thinks that just because 3Q(lagging indicator) GDP means anything about an future possibility of recession(the reason for all the press about the downturn in the markets).
recession or bear market talk is completely reasonable and the "because there is a republican in office" is probably the dumbest reason i've ever heard of. short-term outlook could be ugly with tightening credit markets, slumping consumer confidence, a recent plunge in financial sector stocks including GSEs(huge credit consequences), and further declines in housing. are all these enough to drag the economy into a recession...maybe. i will say this: bush's economic policy isn't what's going to prevent recession, look for ben b to cut rates in december and save us.
another rate cut will only sink the dollar's value further
November 27, 2007 - 15:44 ET by professor truthThis article will describe why our economy is in big trouble:
http://www.counterpu...
long term vs short term
November 27, 2007 - 16:01 ET by johnGworrying about the dollar becoming too devalued is more of a long-term issue. the issue of a mid cycle slow possibly slipping into a recession would trump the issue of the dollar becoming devalued. there wouldn't be permanent consquences from the dollar being slightly devalued by another rate cut in dec.
Just rhetorical...
November 27, 2007 - 18:29 ET by mattmHow do you give blame for a bad economy to a president? And worse, how can the media justify calling the economy bad when it's no worse (or better) than it was back when Clinton was in office and they were calling it good?
question
November 27, 2007 - 18:38 ET by johnGmattm, what metrics are you using to compare bush's economy to clinton's?
and i fully agree that you can't give credit or blame to a president because the election cycle and business cycles are not the same, i state that all the time on here.
Tomorrow's headline: "GDP
November 27, 2007 - 15:22 ET by motherbeltTomorrow's headline:
"GDP Rises Sharply, In Spite of Sluggish Economy"
Alternate Headline!
November 27, 2007 - 15:28 ET by PawpawNGDP Rises Sharply-Is this the Calm Before The STORM!
Minorities and women....
November 27, 2007 - 16:04 ET by Prester John....likely to be hit hardest.
Americans will have to
November 27, 2007 - 18:27 ET by red_dragon311Americans will have to start to live within their means