Conservatives have debates over whether they should cite Rasmussen poll data because it is too divergent from other surveys. If that's the case, then why accept the new CBS/New York Times poll, which is out of step with other recent polls? Keep in mind, Rasmussen polls "likely voters," where CBS/NYT interviewed "adults." The distinction is critical. The latest CBS/NYT numbers show a very wide 42-percent gap for Obama: 66 percent approve, only 24 percent disapprove. The current average gap on Real Clear Politics is around 30 percent.
The same thing happened a few weeks before the election. The Polling Report showed Bush’s approval numbers in an October 19-22 survey were 22 percent approve, 72 percent disapprove – 11 to 14 points wider than the other polls at the time.
Over at Hot Air, Ed Morrissey points out the Times also touted "By contrast, just 31 percent of respondents said they had a favorable view of the Republican Party, the lowest in the 25 years the question has been asked in New York Times/CBS News polls." Are the liberals cooking the party-ID books again for these polls? Yep.
It’s not unusual for the Gray Lady to cook the numbers, either, to make sure their poll shows that support. This is the breakout in their demographics on page 23:
Democrats - 39%
Republicans - 23%
Independents - 30%
In February, just a month earlier, they had Democrats at 36% and Republicans at 26% — still too low for the GOP, but only a ten-point gap. Now they want to argue that Democrats have pushed the partisan gap to 16 points in a single month? Not hardly, says Rasmussen:
In March, the number of Democrats in the nation fell two percentage points while the number of Republicans fell by half-a-point. Democrats continue to have a sizable advantage in terms of partisan identification, but the advantage is smaller than it’s been since December 2007.
Currently, 38.7% of Americans say they are Democrats. That’s down from 40.8% a month ago. It’s also the first time the Democratic total has slipped below the 40% mark since the Republican convention bounce last September. … In March, 33.2% of American adults say they are Republicans. That’s down from 33.6% a month ago. Over the past year, the number of Republicans has ranged from a low of 31.4% in April to a high of 34.4% in September.
Morrissey added:
Unfortunately, they’re not the only news agencies using ridiculous sampling to bolster their contentions of wild popularity for Barack Obama. Newsweek used a 19-point gap in its latest polling. CNN thus far has neglected to publish the internals of its poll. It’s just another round of dishonesty from the media.
Rasmussen has Obama’s polling at a more rational 58%, but then again, they don’t have an investment in Obama, Inc, as the media does.
—Tim Graham is Director of Media Analysis at the Media Research Center.
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Comments Policy
CBS/New York Times Poll
April 7, 2009 - 12:58 ET by allanfThe CBS "News"/ New York Times Poll's purpose is to generate Republican bashing stories. I don't think its results can be trusted by anyone who needs accurate information.
seeBS
April 7, 2009 - 15:19 ET by 10ksnookerAll you need to know.
a contrarian view
April 7, 2009 - 16:19 ET by sms5217Let me be the contrarian here.
I don't trust ANY MSM person, institution, or entity, and I think their Obama-mania is downright criminal and pathetic.
However, maybe it's just that I live currently in blue-state America...or maybe not. Everyone I know around coastal Virginia/tidewater area is liberal, loves Obama, says Mrs. Obama can do no wrong, and the cars are painted with his stickers.
It is simply nauseating, and emblematic of the deep blue regions of the country. Given that more and more of America is becoming blue, I think that the high Dem low Repub breakdown may be more accurate than we NB's can reasonably bear.
Again, this country has changed. Young people love this silly faux-messiah and his bs message. If the under 30 vote or ideas is any indication, we have already lost, and we ain't even winning again.
This empty suited messiah won't be defeated folks. Just won't, and it looks like the best we have is a very compromised and controversial Palin to be fed to the wolves again in 2012.
Just absolutely depressing.
Trial lawyers are the scum of the earth
This isn't a poll, its propaganda
April 7, 2009 - 13:09 ET by R D HelmThe MSM will do whatever is necessary to prop up the failing potentate in the White House.
And that includes lying through their teeth.
-Dave
This coup has gone on long enough. The time to put it down is NOW.
polls
April 7, 2009 - 13:09 ET by east tennessee johnThey can say what they want, they do anyway. Too bad their rigged numbers are being heard by smaller and smaller audiences for both CBS and the NYT. Yelling success in an echo chamber as Rome burns doesn't address the fire, does it?
east tennessee john...
April 7, 2009 - 13:31 ET by dborschjr68"Yelling success in an echo chamber as Rome burns doesn't address the fire, does it?"
That statement was sheer poetry. Bravo, sir, bravo.
I couldn't
April 7, 2009 - 15:30 ET by UpNorthagree more, well said ETJ.
Ha!
April 7, 2009 - 13:18 ET by DontFeedTheTrollsThose numbers are way different from those in this MSNBC poll with 1.8 million polled so far.
D
Keep the ILLEGALS out, join NumbersUSA to send free faxes to your reps.
And that from the farthest
April 7, 2009 - 14:57 ET by kgAnd that from the farthest left cable TV site. Is there any chance the 3 anchors at the MSNBC nightly comedy hours will mention this?
"DumbAssity of Dope"
Too small a sample
April 7, 2009 - 13:19 ET by aakaakaakThey polled under 1,000 people for a nationwide survey. That's...20 people per state. Plenty of room for error if you ask me.
http://www.americanw...
That's actually a pretty
April 7, 2009 - 15:04 ET by motherbeltThat's actually a pretty standard number for polls.
But more than a million people voted in MSNBC's online poll, and they certainly didn't tout those results!!
They might say "Wow, that sucks!" But at least they'll say "Wow!" -Duff Goldman, the Ace of Cakes
And,
April 7, 2009 - 15:33 ET by UpNorthif you total the C's, D's and F's, the Obamunist gets 62% passing or worse. And you're right MB, no one will tout the results.
Online polls are worse then regular ones.
April 8, 2009 - 09:19 ET by aakaakaakAnybody who's a little tech savvy can throw together a batch file and a web proxy to skew results to their liking without the owner knowing about it. If it's a huge, multi-million people poll you might even use a botnet to skew your results. The point being that all polls are skewed to some point or another. I've done it myself on lower level systems.
http://www.americanwarmonger.blogspot.com
Total BS
April 7, 2009 - 13:34 ET by SickofLibsIt's just the drones doing hive maintenance.
Obongo has only been in for 11 weeks - who gives a sh*t what his approval poll numbers are every day? The financial markets aren't buying it, are they?
Why this continuous non-stop need to keep him propped up and validated? We're stuck with him for 4 years unless he croaks or is impeached - enough already.
I'll be anxiously awaiting all the NY Slimes/CBS Tea Party coverage next week.
"Keep in mind, Rasmussen
April 7, 2009 - 13:34 ET by Chris Norman"Keep in mind, Rasmussen polls "likely voters," where CBS/NYT interviewed "adults." "
Tim, did CBS say if these "adults" had functioning brains?
The "Mainstream" Media: By liberals. For liberals.
yeah, but adult 'whats'?
April 7, 2009 - 14:02 ET by SickofLibs"Tap your hoof once for yes, twice for no."
They are going to continue
April 7, 2009 - 13:36 ET by bigtimerThey are going to continue to rig the poll numbers in favor of the leftists...all the way to the next mid-term election and the next Prez election.
Agenda matters...and if they continue with these false numbers they can use them in the polling precints for lawsuits, court tie-ups etc when the 'D' side of the aisle candidate loses...by gum, they are going to get their people in, one way or the other...by hook or by crook.
Doubling down on stupid is not a particularly good idea. ~Andrew Breitbart
Survey Says!!!!
April 7, 2009 - 13:38 ET by Nearly NobodySurvey Says!!!! "Nearly Nobody's News" will push the Drudge Report to the #2 blog this year. 100% of the people surveyed agree.
Hey this is my poll it will say what I want it to say.
GIGO. "Socialism is a
April 7, 2009 - 13:49 ET by fitzfongGIGO.
"Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery." -Winston Churchill
The MSNBC on-line poll. Results? Obama - bad!!
April 7, 2009 - 13:52 ET by Gary HallThe MSNBC on-line poll had a huge turnout, 1.8 million votes. Not scientific, Tim, but the results surprised the heck out of me.
This is reminiscent of the on-line poll conducted by MSNBC - If you were grading Barack Obama on his performance as president, what would he get?, and covered on NB Sunday.
w/1,804,813 votes in:
What did MSNBC do with the results? Will they manage to report it on air? Will Matthews or Maddow or Olbermann find room for a brief mention? Will Jack Cafferty pick it up have a fit and blame the poor showing on Rush?
(;~> gary
If the poll results do not
April 7, 2009 - 14:07 ET by IgnatzJFahrquarIf the poll results do not fit the MSNBC (NBC) model then "it was rigged by rightwing poll-voting-spambots". If the the poll results would have fit MSNBC (NBC)'s model, well, then, you get headlines similar to what CBS is spewing.
"It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt." Mark Twain
With the MSNBC poll and
April 7, 2009 - 14:56 ET by Dan The Man 2With the MSNBC poll and using the latest failure grading from schools the could say that Obama is getting a passing grade on foriegn policy with 57% approving; 57% being a D or better. Of course if the threshold is a C like it is in my household then 57% say he is failing. Interesting that 57% is the threshold either way and Obama said there were 57 states and there is a 57 Hinz steak sauce? Hmmmmm.
Ok stupidity aside, the last real poll and the one that counts was taken November 4, 2008. It said his approval rating was just over 50%.
Nuke em til they glow then shoot em in the dark.
Except for one thing...
April 7, 2009 - 16:55 ET by c5thenThose "Poll Results" conducted on Nov 4, 2008 were cooked and skewed a bit with the help of ACORN and other "get out the vote" groups. Not by a huge amount. Probably just a % or two.
Hey, I got the wrong "CHANGE"!
www.loyaltoliberty.com
Memorandum
April 7, 2009 - 13:55 ET by xyzzypoofsThe only way CBS' polls could be any less believable is if they released them in a "typed" memo
CBS Polls.
April 7, 2009 - 14:39 ET by blazermaniacCBS News/Washington Postpolls are just a waste of time. They are both big liberal groups, and don't America's interest where it should be.
that's funny!
April 7, 2009 - 15:21 ET by SickofLibsTip to CBS: And this time, use a typewriter typeface.
Sigh.
April 7, 2009 - 15:29 ET by Joe BlogsRead Rasmussen and forget the rest. He's been dead on for the past nine years about every national and state election. It makes me wonder why anyone else is left in this business.
The right answer (from R2):
"Overall, 58% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the
President's performance so far. Forty-one percent (41%) disapprove.
With just one exception, the President’s overall approval has stayed
between 55% and 58% every day for a full month."
There is no such thing as
April 7, 2009 - 16:27 ET by pepsimanThere is no such thing as an independent. So the sample was 69% democrat and 23% republican. How sad are the cooked results if you look at it in that context ? What would the results be if they just made a thousand random calls to people out of the phone book regardless of political affiliation ? I would bet anyone that Kenyas #1 son is below 50%
pepsi
April 7, 2009 - 16:55 ET by well99Your wrong.There is such thing as independant.To be truthful I could go thru a long process of explaining it but I wont.I done it before and not worth the time.As far as the poll being biased definately.CBS/NYT are so far in the tank for the dear leader it is embarrasing to see it.They have no Journalistic integrity so they have no problem with stacking the deck.
Sure, I can see Obama
April 7, 2009 - 17:02 ET by msh1973Sure, I can see Obama getting that kind of approval ratings....if you only poll those that voted for him. My phone isn't ringing!
msh... LOL...mine hasn't
April 7, 2009 - 17:12 ET by bigtimermsh...
LOL...mine hasn't either!
Good to catch you here...haven't seen you forever.
Doubling down on stupid is not a particularly good idea. ~Andrew Breitbart
bigtimer, I got a sick
April 7, 2009 - 17:32 ET by msh1973bigtimer,
I got a sick message in my "inbox", so I am really taking it easy. It was vile and threatening. I found out that others received it as well.
Good to hear from you.
Hey msh... Are you talking
April 7, 2009 - 17:35 ET by bigtimerHey msh...
Are you talking about here on NBs in the PM inbox?
Doubling down on stupid is not a particularly good idea. ~Andrew Breitbart
bigtimer, Here on NB.
April 7, 2009 - 17:38 ET by msh1973bigtimer,
Here on NB.
msh... Thanks...PM
April 7, 2009 - 17:43 ET by bigtimermsh...
Thanks...PM sent.
Doubling down on stupid is not a particularly good idea. ~Andrew Breitbart
tilted duh... but..
April 7, 2009 - 17:22 ET by GeronLMaybe conservatives have finally stopped approving of the GOP??
I know I have!!
Even with the home cooking,
April 7, 2009 - 17:37 ET by dervishnotice that his disapproval rating is the highest ever -- 24%, up from 20% last month. For some reason they don't mention that quite as much.
Re Independents
April 7, 2009 - 18:00 ET by slickwillie2001Independents can't be defined unless we agree that there are a half-dozen different varieties of 'independent'. They run the gamut all the way from idiots that decide who to vote for on election day based on who has the nicest smile or is a certain color or ethnic background, or who their union goon tells them to vote for, or college kids that say they are independent because it sounds nice. At the other end are truly thoughtful people that believe in a variety of issues that cross party lines. There are for example the social liberals/fiscal conservatives, or libertarians.
The first variety deserves nothing but derision. It would be better for the country if they sat out elections. If you are the latter variety, please don't take offense over criticism of the others.
Weighted Results
April 7, 2009 - 20:24 ET by TIRMTheir reported results are actually weighted to give more weight to Dems and less to Reps.
Actual respondents were
R - 264 (26.5%) D - 349 (35.0%) I - 385 (38.6%)
Adjusted numbers used in for results
R - 230 (23.0%) D - 391 (39.2%) I - 377 (37.7%)
Approval Rating based off actual respondents
A - 636 (63.7%)
D - 258 (25.9%)
DK - 104 (10.4%)
As a statistician it pisses me off to no end when statistics are manipulated.
Re Weighting
April 7, 2009 - 21:04 ET by slickwillie2001You might like this then -the latest on the self-reporting D/R ratio and trend: Independents Trending Toward GOP: http://www.redstate.com
We need to stop that trend asap!
April 8, 2009 - 01:20 ET by well99The way for repubs to get independants is find the common ground.I must of lived a sheltered life but I dont remember meeting a regular person saying they wanted higher taxes.I know of none that wish to let a illegal take their job or SSN.The same with union members.While I was in the union nobody wanted to go on strike.It has to be grassroots.Now I live in flyover country and it has been along time since I lived on either coast but you cant win a election in the US with just rep/dems.The msm has created the image of the Republicans and their leadership.If the Reps want to let them it is up to them.That isnt a good thing since the left controls the Dem party.
The people who (still)
April 8, 2009 - 02:05 ET by RR GOPThe people who (still) watch CBS wouldn't bat an eye.
The rest of us are like, "No way."
Judging solely by FNN and conservative talk show ratings, that simply cannot be an accurate poll. I'd say more like 50/50 at best.
One of the 34% who thinks George W. Bush was a great President. One of the 61% who wants to bring back the stock and pillory (yep...approval for Congress now at 39%...do you believe that!?).