Democrats (including Democrats in the media) are unhappy the presidential race is within five points, so they're eager to find wider polling margins than that. Yahoo! readers saw this headline at the top of the news on Saturday morning: "Obama widens lead over McCain by 15 points in latest poll."
It was Reuters reporting on a Newsweek poll. As the reader should suspect, the poll questioned more Democrats than Republicans: 231 Republicans to 324 Democrats, plus 307 independents. But that wasn't in this web article, which began:
Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama has opened up a double-digit lead over Republican John McCain two weeks after he clinched the nomination, a new poll published on Friday showed.
The nationwide poll conducted by Newsweek showed Obama leading McCain by a margin of 51-36 percent, indicating that he might have got a bounce from his recent primary victory over Hillary Clinton.
Reuters did eventually notice the obvious: "Obama's edge in the latest poll is larger than in other recent surveys. A Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday found Obama had a only a 5-point lead." (I'd bet that wasn't at the top of the Yahoo! page.)
Newsweek's story on its own poll betrayed its delight that "finally" Obama was winning big, as Michael Hirsh began his web-exclusive article:
Barack finally has his bounce. For weeks many political experts and pollsters have been wondering why the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain had stayed so tight, even after the Illinois senator wrested the nomination from Hillary Clinton. With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country's direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that.
As many conservatives have worried this election looks like 1996 -- formerly media-honored old war veteran is portrayed as bridge to last century, constantly portrayed as losing by double digits -- many liberals see 1992, the last time a forty-something JFK figure was making his national campaign debut:
The latest numbers on voter dissatisfaction suggest that Obama may enjoy more than one bounce. The new poll finds that only 14 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction of the country. That matches the previous low point on this measure recorded in June 1992, when a brief recession contributed to Bill Clinton's victory over Bush's father, incumbent George H.W. Bush.
At least Hirsh mentioned that the general-election campaign isn't exactly over yet:
[Pollster Larry] Hugick points out that in May 1988 when the primaries ended, Democrat Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 54 percent to 38 percent lead over George H.W. Bush. But Bush wound up winning handily.
Funny, that number did not make the Reuters story at all.
—Tim Graham is Director of Media Analysis at the Media Research Center.
Editor at Large
Comments Policy
President Dukakis
June 21, 2008 - 07:56 ET by P.J. GladnickAh yes. We all remember the administration of President Dukakis with great fondness.
What Is 2008 Ratio For Registered Voters?
June 21, 2008 - 11:39 ET by zeestephenThe sampling in Newsweek's poll breaks out like this:
Republican: 26.8%
Democrat: 37.6%
Independent: 35.7%
Democrats lead Republicans by 10.8%.
How close is that to the 2008 registration rate nationally?
In 2006, the Democrat lead was about 9%, so this sampling may be close to current reality.
Well, that does it! Cancel
June 21, 2008 - 08:01 ET by motherbeltWell, that does it! Cancel the election, kick out George Bush (constitution, schmonstitution....he's changed everything else, why not that too!) and let's install Barack as President for Life (did they do a poll to see how many Americans would go for that too?)
It did seem like the story
June 21, 2008 - 08:12 ET by SchnikeysIt did seem like the story about which Mr. Graham posted was strange, as I had just checked Rasmussen yesterday morning, which showed the difference to be one of single digits.
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"It could be the answer to our age-old, philosophical question, 'Why are we here?' PLASTIC!"
This is what happens
June 21, 2008 - 09:02 ET by jefflebowskiwhen your choices are Obama and Obama Lite. The Republican leaders..aka Mr. Wussypants...never quite figured it out that McPain alienated the conservative block and won't submit to extortion tactics. Every 30 or so years, we need a Jimmy Carter.
Jeff Lebowski
www.angrywhitedude.c...
Every 30 or so years, we
June 21, 2008 - 09:40 ET by NewsbusterbrownEvery 30 or so years, we need a Jimmy Carter.
As someone who lived through the Carter Administration, we don't need another Jimmuh.
“There are no easy answers' but there are simple answers. We must have the courage to do what we know is morally right.” - Ronald Reagan (1964 Republican Convention)
NBB...
June 21, 2008 - 10:32 ET by ontheright...you are absolutely right. I too survived the Carter administration catastrophe and based on that fiasco, I don't believe the US, with its diminishing conservative base, could handle the stress of another 4 years of a "Carteresque" team of charlatans.
We would be ripe for additional foreign attacks, increased domestic terrorism and the clandestine integration of sharia law might find little, if any resistance. One only has to look to Europe to see how easy this scenario could mainifest itself.
The key to this downfall would be to elect the Obamessiah. Be afraid, be very, very afraid.
On the right, Sharia law in the US?
June 21, 2008 - 10:48 ET by jefflebowskiWe would be ripe for additional foreign attacks, increased domestic
terrorism and the clandestine integration of sharia law might find
little, if any resistance. One only has to look to Europe to see how
easy this scenario could mainifest itself.
I agree about the foreign attacks and terrorism but I don't believe that sharia law is coming any time soon...at least not here in TX. The main difference between us and Europe is that we have guns. Lots of them.
Jeff Lebowski
www.angrywhitedude.c...
Wish I could be so optimistic!
June 21, 2008 - 11:08 ET by w0tmSo do I (guns that is). And I will follow the famous quote of Charlton Hesston. But we'll just be a speed bump. There are not enough of us. Most will "submit". The media has purposely ignored the fact that sigificant areas of Europe now quietly allow Sharia law to override the country's laws in Germany, France and England - especially Germany. There have been many family "honor killings" of rape victims where the (usually) brother wasn't even charged due to the unwillingness of any witness to testify.
Sharia law - it's coming. By the end of the Hussein Obama first term the country will be so brainwashed that Sharia law will be welcomed with Sharia law allowed in return for no more "9/11's". We'll be neutered, Balkanied and no longer a world power.
If we get Obama as POTUS and
June 22, 2008 - 01:27 ET by ThatDudeIf we get Obama as POTUS and the country starts rounding the turn to communism, I sure do hope that Texas becomes the first to secede from the US. The saying "out of many, one" does not mean that we are expected to give up our own autonomy. I'd like to see some of our senators and governors have the balls to even mention seceding. If the federal government keeps deciding to go in the opposite direction of some states, then there's little option besides to leave, correct?
ThatDude, I hate to tell ya, pal, but this country...
June 22, 2008 - 01:46 ET by R D Helm...made that turn nearly 70 years ago.
Forked, we are.
The truth is insensitive. - Neal Boortz
Jeff.. Not just
June 22, 2008 - 01:33 ET by bigtimerJeff..
Not just Texas...so does Montana.
"Never murder your opponent when he is committing suicide." ~ W. Wilson
NBBrown, I agree and disagree
June 21, 2008 - 10:30 ET by jefflebowskiI also lived through Carter. The parallels between Osama and
Carter are scary! Remember, people voted for Carter because he had a nice smile!
I agree that another disastrous Carter-like Presidency is not in our best interest. I disagree because the American people also need to be reminded that "change" can be for the worse and that we need to get our priorities in order. The Repubs putting the democrat McPain as their candidate shows how far things are off center.
I firmly believe that without Carter we would not have had Reagan.
And that Obama, he has such a nice smile PLUS he's a negro!
Jeff Lebowski
www.angrywhitedude.c...
>>>Every 30 or so years, we
June 21, 2008 - 10:30 ET by seanrobins>>>Every 30 or so years, we need a Jimmy Carter. As someone who lived through the Carter Administration, we don't need another Jimmuh.
Even if we do (and I don't necessarily agree)... why do WE have to be the ones to get him elected???
sean robins
blog.seanrobins.com
Obama is a empty suit, and lost without a teleprompter
June 21, 2008 - 09:17 ET by ChiefE9I think he is a mix of McGovern, Dukakis, Mondale and Jimmy Carter and that isn't good for America!
He is a terrible choice for America!
I think he would dismantle our military and ignore the terrorist threat just like Clinton did!
Obama is a empty suit, and lost without a teleprompter
June 21, 2008 - 09:23 ET by shawn228Did you watch the night he captured the Democratic nomination? It was McCain that looked lost without a teleprompter.
shawn -- that was the
June 21, 2008 - 09:58 ET by Jack Bauershawn -- that was the ill-advised McCain speech WITH the teleprompter wasn't it?
I believe the point people are making is that Obama is way average without a teleprompter.
There's tons of video evidence to uh--um-- y'know, prove that
I don't think you're getting an argument from Reps that Obama is better at reading the TP.
Jack
June 21, 2008 - 10:15 ET by shawn228Democrat of Republican, McCains speech t was one of the worst speeches, I have ever seen. Obama says some pretty silly things without a tp I admit that. 57 states anyone?
That was a dumb decision by McCain to make that speech that night. I realize most Republicans think that the libs at Obamas speech were a bunch of sheep that night, but man that guy can give a speech. He had 20 k plus hook line and sinker
Obama is fine without a
June 21, 2008 - 10:07 ET by motherbeltObama is fine without a teleprompter, as long as he stays on his talking points and stump speech. It's when he tries to construct a coherent thought on the fly that he shows what a lightweight he is.
Witness the runaround about the cost of operations in Iraq. He was pretty good at pretending people in the audience were at fault for distracting him, though. So apparently he can think on his feet, to cover for his "losing his bearings."
Shoot 'em all and let God sort 'em out! - Marge Simpson
Tim would you say.....
June 21, 2008 - 09:28 ET by shawn228they purposely picked more Democrats than Republicans or did those people happen to answer "Democrat" when they were asked party affiliation, when these people were picked randomly?
Of course most Republicans will back McCain and ditto for Dems for Obama. This sounds like a random cluster sample.
Yesterday our local radio
June 21, 2008 - 10:06 ET by motherbeltYesterday our local radio station here in PA had a discussion of how many Republicans were lost and Democrats gained. It wasn't pretty. They were wondering if the state is going blue in a big way (despite all those gun-and-relgion clingers).
They did mention "Operation Chaos" but not by name...just commenting about Repubs who switched to vote for either CLinton or Obama.
Shoot 'em all and let God sort 'em out! - Marge Simpson
I Thought I Was Watching Felix the Cat
June 21, 2008 - 10:24 ET by BondPlainBondI was just watching MSNBC before "someone" changed the channel on me. Within the last seven minutes they have touted this Newsweek poll three times!
I laughed so hard my sides ached, but my heart did NOT go pitter-pat.
The blonde is asking the guest "why this HUGE bump for Obama?"
The guest says the poll was taken at a time when John McCain and Obama were head-to-head on foreign policy issues and it just goes to prove, paraphrasing here, how much stronger Obama is on foreign policy.
Earlier, the blonde asked a different guest if this "trend" will continue. The guest said it would as Hillary is out of it now and Obama has 40% of the independent vote locked up.
I've had to wipe the tears of laughter out of my eyes over and over again just to type this. My cheeks hurt and my stomach hurts I was laughing so hard.
MSNBC. What is their viewership? Six? Seven people? And a dog?
The sheer and utter desperation is really out of control over there.
MSNBC will focus on this one poll for the next week as if it were the only poll in the whole scheme of things. The graphic didn't even say how many were polled, it only showed a +/-4%, that's it.
That Yahoo! is pushing it gives me pause. Yahoo! is Leftist, Google is Leftist; are there any middle-of-the-road or Right-inclined search engines? Seriously.
>>>MSNBC. What is their
June 21, 2008 - 10:29 ET by seanrobins>>>MSNBC. What is their viewership? Six? Seven people? And a dog? . . . a goat, two chickens, and a mongoose...named Keith...
sean robins
blog.seanrobins.com
>>> Hugick points out that
June 21, 2008 - 10:26 ET by seanrobins>>> Hugick points out that in May 1988 when the primaries ended, Democrat Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 54 percent to 38 percent lead over George H.W. Bush. But Bush wound up winning handily.
I wonder, was the May 1988 poll similarly skewed by the outrageously dishonest sampling bias of the worthless polling agency???
This is why we should not give much credence to any particular poll, particularly this early. I have little faith in the honest of most pollsters, I don't care how allegedly "reputable" they may be.
sean robins
blog.seanrobins.com
Your right sean
June 21, 2008 - 10:30 ET by shawn228It is too early anything can happen, just like Michael Dukakis anything can happen from now till the election. McCain was up by double digits about two months ago.
Looks like Obama without a doubt has the momentum right now, and the GOP is losing more house seats and the Dems have a small chance of getting 60 seats in the senate come November.
Maybe McCain will rebound, but we have a long way to go.
Quinnipac Poll
June 21, 2008 - 10:31 ET by allanfI noticed that the Qunnipac College June 18th poll, which showed McCain trailing in Florida received much press coverage. It is funny that the other polls, which showed Obama trailing in Florida did not receive similar coverage.
Drudge is pumping this phony poll too
June 21, 2008 - 10:41 ET by mitchfloridaMatt Drudge has converted himself to little more than a stooge for Obama.
the number isn't sufficient to me
June 21, 2008 - 11:08 ET by Susan II just don't understand how you can poll a little over 800 people, and "those" people are what the rest of us think. Especially when it is more dems than repubs.
Until the day I get polled, I won't believe one poll out there. Have you, or do you know of anyone who has ever been polled?
It's a joke especially when it's Newsweek, who is totally in the tank for BO boy.
This is what the left wing
June 21, 2008 - 12:18 ET by MrSnugglesThis is what the left wing media will do, they will find one ridiculously shameless poll that means nothing and pound away at it up until the general election in hopes that the poll will change peoples minds. they did it in 2006 and it worked.
Polls at these early points
June 21, 2008 - 12:27 ET by GregEPolls at these early points are simply tools that uninformed voters can use to begin their flow with the crowd. Other than that, its completely useless news. Ask McCain and Obama both where they were in early primary season polls.
BREAKING POLL NEWS...
June 21, 2008 - 13:20 ET by Jack BauerGotta tell ya... it's looking bad for the RNC
I heard nothing but this
June 21, 2008 - 17:38 ET by bigtimerI heard nothing but this news on msnbc this morning with Alex Witt...funny, they are desperate to say he got a bounce...plus Hillary voters are moving to him now, which by the way, I am sure that would be true for the majority of them by Nov. anyway...what they neglected to say is other polls defy this fake poll...I heard Gallup has them only two points apart....
Give me a break!
As an aside, I remember well the Newsweek polls that came out early on the week-ends for Kerry ect....why he would still be Prez if they were anywhere close to true.
Newsweek is and always has been nothing but bogus IMO.
"Never murder your opponent when he is committing suicide." ~ W. Wilson