ABC's Diane Sawyer Implores Carville: Obama Will Win, Right?

On Wednesday's "Good Morning America," co-host Diane Sawyer appeared worried about the upcoming presidential election and repeatedly grilled Democratic strategist and Clinton supporter James Carville about whether Barack Obama will be able to overcome a tough primary and defeat John McCain in November. Asking a question she would ultimately repeat four times, Sawyer fretted, "Should he be the nominee, will Senator Obama beat John McCain? Is there any doubt in your mind that he'll beat John McCain?"

Apparently Carville's prediction of a victory for the Illinois senator wasn't enough. Sawyer doggedly reiterated, "But you're saying he will win?" After the longtime Clinton strategist stated that Obama will win, but Clinton could be victorious by more, Sawyer quickly rebutted, "So, that's not an argument, really. You do think he would win?" While discussing the Democratic National Committee and its upcoming meeting to decide what will be done with the delegates from Florida and Michigan, the ABC anchor anxiously wondered, "If the decision on Saturday means [Clinton] doesn't have the popular vote on June 3rd, must it be over?"

And while Sawyer's first question to Carville was a softball about ex-White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan's new Bush-bashing book, the GMA host failed to quiz the political operative about Clinton's odd reference on May 23 to the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy while she justified staying in the race for the Democratic nomination. And this was despite the fact that Carville himself mentioned the issue three times:

JAMES CARVILLE: I thought Senator Obama had his campaign, try to hype this idiotic story out of South Dakota. I thought that set things back.

...

CARVILLE: But the way that they handled this South Dakota thing was not helpful at all.

...

CARVILLE: I thought that this foolishness they tried to pull on the South Dakota thing-- I cannot tell you how hurtful it was, how hurtful it was to me that they tried to play this little game.

If viewers were confused what the "South Dakota thing" was, Sawyer didn't engage the issue. (Clinton made her assassination remarks in South Dakota.) She kept moving on to other issues. Finally though, Sawyer quietly pondered, "Did [Clinton] make a mistake in what she said?"

A transcript of the May 28 segment, which aired at 7:07am, follows:

DIANE SAWYER: And let's go now to Democratic strategist, author of "40 More Years," James Carville, watching, fired up, I gather. Scott McClellan, news of the day. First of all, your reaction to this?

JAMES CARVILLE: I think this is going to be the rest of their lives. I think there's going to be more books coming out. I think that there are going to be investigations. I think President Bush and this administration is going to spend a long, long time, defending what was done and answer these kind of questions.

SAWYER: Are you saying that if the Democrats-- if the Democrats win, there's going to be a series of full-scale investigations?

CARVILLE: Well, I think in the next Congress there probably-- there are any number of open questions about the war, about a lot of other things. I think history-- Historians-- full investigations, historians. People in the administration are going to leave. They're going to write books. Why do we think that Scott McClellan is going to be the first and only book about this administration?

SAWYER: Yeah, but are you really anticipating when you say, long, long time, a series of investigations?

CARVILLE: I'm certainly anticipating a series of history books being written. I think that there are a lot of unanswered questions. And I think the Congress, no matter who the president is, I know there's going to be a Democratic Congress. I think that Congress Waxman is going to continue to look into some of this stuff. I do.

SAWYER: All right. Okay. Another question out there this morning. Question, again, June 3rd. You have said that by June 3rd, we'll have a nominee, time to unite. June 3rd, six days from today. Going to have a nominee. Time to unite?

CARVILLE: Well, I think on June 3rd, we're going to have a split decision on June the 3rd. I don't know that, but let's wait and see. Because, if you believe that delegates are more important, Senator Obama will have a lead in delegates. If you think that votes are more important it's very likely that Senator Clinton will have a lead in votes.

SAWYER: Depending on Florida and Michigan.

CARVILLE: Well, again, I pointed out on numerous occasions, Senator Clinton has the absolute, superior moral case on Florida and Michigan As you recall, I offered Mr. Willingham of the Obama campaign, to split the cost of these primaries. He refused and then myself, Governor Rendell and Governor Corzine said we'll pick up the entire cost of the primary to re-vote. Senator Obama refused to do that.

SAWYER: But are you changing your June 3rd date? And by the way, George Stephanopoulos, George Stephanopoulos--

CARVILLE: Right. The great George Stephanopoulos.

SAWYER: The great George Stephanopoulos, yesterday on this broadcast, when I said to him what are the odds you're going on to a Democratic convention fight, that this will be decided at the convention, said zero percent, then amended it to maybe one percent. Zero percent. Is he wrong?

CARVILLE: I don't want to question-- He's obviously a very knowledgeable guy. I would say it would probably be decided by the convention. It was a very big setback. I thought Senator Obama had his campaign, try to hype this idiotic story out of South Dakota. I thought that set things back.

SAWYER: But, Senator Obama publicly said he moved on from that.

CARVILLE: Diane, I'm not a journalist, I'm a political operative. I don't fall for that. I mean, come on, please. He had his campaign put out this statement. Then put the tape to these guys on cable TV. And 24 hours later, it comes out. I mean, please.

SAWYER: But I want to be clear what you're saying here this morning. Are you saying super delegates are lining up to go with her and there will be a fight all of the way to the Democratic convention? We're talking August 25th.

CARVILLE [Points to eraser board on GMA set with dates on it. Points to June 3]: I'm saying this. On this date, I don't know if it's going to happen. There's a chance she's going to be the winner in the popular vote. Already, we're seeing emerging a pattern in the polls that she is the stronger, and looks like by more than a little bit, general election candidate. I'm saying that it very well, her case is -- she certainly has the superior position on Florida and Michigan. I think a lot of super delegates are going to say, wait a minute, you mean you got more votes than he did? Said, yes. Senator Clinton's going to say we got more votes and look at these polls.

SAWYER: And if she doesn't-- If the decision on Saturday means she doesn't have the popular vote on June 3rd, must it be over?

CARVILLE: Well, that's going to be up to her. But I sure do think that her case, if she has more popular votes is going to be stronger. But I have to say that, in all honesty, as you know, I said down at Furman University in South Carolina, I thought he was the likely nominee, I certainly am prepared to support Senator Obama if he is the nominee. But the way that they handled this South Dakota thing was not helpful at all. Of course we're going to reconcile. Of course-- this was a -- this was not -- this is not a very -- this is not a good thing.

SAWYER: Should he be the nominee, will Senator Obama beat John McCain? Is there any doubt in your mind that he'll beat John McCain?

CARVILLE: I think that Senator Obama will beat John McCain. I think the country is so fed up with the Republicans that the Democrats are going to win the election in November.

SAWYER: Because, you know that Senator Clinton and former President Clinton have both raised questions about whether he can win. But you're saying he will win?

CARVILLE: I think any fair reading of the current polls would said that Senator Clinton would win by more, as a stronger general election candidate. That's not to say that Senator Obama would not win. But, I think any-- Florida -- in all this-- what happened here --

SAWYER: So, that's not an argument, really. You do think he would win?

CARVILLE: I think the Democrats will win. I think that reconciliation-- I thought that this foolishness they tried to pull on the South Dakota thing-- I cannot tell you how hurtful it was, how hurtful it was to me that they tried to play this little game. And like I say, that was a very, very bad. I -- myself --

SAWYER: Did she make a mistake in what she said?

CARVILLE: I don't think she did. No one in the room thought she did. I think the press made a fool of themselves and I think Obama tried to pull a clever political trip and it backfired on them.

SAWYER: All right. Can't go on.

CARVILLE: You can't? I wish we had more time.

SAWYER: That's because you had-- You should see the cup of coffee, the size of the coffee.

CARVILLE: I'm jacked up on that Louisiana juice here.

SAWYER: Okay. James Carville, good to have you here.