Media Jumped on Pro-Obama Poll, But Was the Sample Screwy?

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Wednesday morning, ABC News and the Washington Post released a new poll showing Barack Obama leading John McCain by 9 points, 52% to 43%. The next day, NBC News and the Wall Street Journal released a poll showing a much tighter race — 48% for Obama, 46% for McCain.

Any guesses as to which poll excited the press more? And which poll has come under fire for over-sampling Democrats?

ABC, naturally, reported its own poll on Wednesday’s Good Morning America, with Diane Sawyer touting at the top of the broadcast: “Breaking news this morning: Barack Obama gains ground in a new ABC News poll, a nine-point lead over John McCain.” The on-screen graphic exclaimed: "Obama Surges Ahead"

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Chief Washington correspondent George Stephanopoulos was giddy: “Diane, you have to go back to 1948 for the last time when a candidate, having this kind of a lead in late September, lost.”

The ABC poll was so thrilling to journalists, it was also part of the political discussion on CBS and NBC that same morning. CBS’s Harry Smith confronted Republican Karen Hughes: “We look at brand new poll numbers this morning, nationwide poll numbers, and all of a sudden Barack Obama has jumped out to this nine-point lead.”

And NBC’s Today made room for their competitors’ poll in their news round-up. “The financial crisis is the number one issue concerning voters, according to a new poll out this morning. It shows Barack Obama gaining ground over John McCain in the race for the White House. The ABC News/Washington Post poll has Obama now leading McCain by nine points; two weeks ago in the same poll, McCain had a two-point edge over Obama,” newsreader Hoda Kotb told viewers.

As for the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, the head-to-head numbers didn’t even excite NBC that much. Political Director Chuck Todd went over them in a Wednesday night preview on Nightly News, which did not lead the broadcast but came about 10 minutes into the program.

After going through numbers showing how McCain “was getting clobbered on the economy over these past two weeks," Todd mentioned: "Oh, by the way, we did have a head-to-head number here, this narrow lead for Obama, 48 percent to 46. This is a slight change from our last poll, showing a little drift toward Obama.”

The next morning on Today, the discussion of the poll also downplayed the head-to-head match-up, and neither CBS nor ABC were excited enough by the narrow margin to mention any of their competitors findings.

But the ABC poll has come under fire, both from the McCain campaign’s pollster Bill McInturff and from Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who worked on the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, for over-sampling Democrats.

As MSNBC’s “First Read” blog reported Wednesday morning: “Those identifying as Democrats in the ABC/Washington Post poll outweighed Republican by 16 points, a wider-than-usual number, McInturff said. ‘It’s way different than what other pollsters are showing,’ McInturff said, citing many polls showing about a four-to-nine point Democratic Party ID advantage.”

After the NBC/Journal poll came out, Hart pointed out the same reason to doubt the ABC/Post poll:

The Journal/NBC News poll comes a day after a national poll conducted for the Washington Post and ABC News found Sen. Obama with a nine-point lead. Mr. Hart, the Journal's Democratic pollster, argued that these results were skewed because their sample included a disproportionate number of Democrats. Democrats had a 16-point advantage in the Post/ABC poll, which is considerably higher than most polls have found historically and this year.

The Journal/NBC poll found an eight-point advantage for Democrats.

In a posting to ABC’s Web site polling director Gary Langer defended his methodology:

Partisanship is measured by asking if people think of themselves as Democrats, Republicans or independents. That’s unleaned party ID. A next step is to ask independents which party they lean toward. That’s leaned party ID.

Unleaned party ID is more telling – it’s more rooted in actual partisan sentiment; it lets us look separately at independents, the quintessential swing voters; and it’s the number that’s comparable to what we learn from the exit polls on Election Day.

As noted, unleaned party ID among likely voters in our latest poll is 37-30 percent. Its average since we started following likely voters in June has been about the same, 36-31 percent. Among the broader population of registered voters it’s 38-28 percent, exactly matching its 2008 average in ABC/Post polls. Our leaned party ID among registered voters, also as noted, is 54-38 percent. Among likely voters it’s 52-41 percent.

The real question is whether the ABC poll that so titillated the media is the first sign of a pro-Obama trend, or merely a stray data point in a statistically-tied horse race. Both ABC/Post and NBC/Journal looked at relatively few voters (780 likely voters and 1085 registered voters, respectively) compared to the big Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls that present a three-day rolling average of 2,700 and 3,000 voters every day.

And those polls have shown no sign of validating the big swing towards Obama that ABC/Post theorized. As of Friday morning, Rasmussen shows a five-point advantage for Obama, while Gallup has them tied at 46% each. The RealClearPolitics average shows a 3.7 percent advantage for Obama — a clear swing from the trend of two weeks ago, but hardly an affirmation of ABC’s numbers.

But as the knee-jerk reaction to the ABC News/Washington Post poll shows, the media’s interest in individual polls has less to do with an appreciation of their carefulness or exhaustiveness than with their ability to generate a sensational (pro-Obama) storyline.

—Rich Noyes is Research Director at the Media Research Center.


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Was the sample screwy?

YES!!

I'm glad the MSM does this, It makes the iffy voter go out and vote for MCCAIN... It happens every 4 years..

If you repeat the same thing over and over again... 

Soon the MSM will be running neck and neck with the morning game shows.

CLIMATE CRISIS

IranianUranium

But this "Obama Surges

But this "Obama Surges Ahead" is totally wrong, wasn't Obama against the surge?

Nuke em til they glow then shoot em in the dark.

But this "Obama Surges

But this "Obama Surges Ahead" is totally wrong, wasn't Obama against the surge?

 

 Hahahaha   Zinggg!

 

 Obama is against/for anything and everything at one time or another.

That's the play of the

That's the play of the day! 

*****

"People only insist that a debate stop when they are afraid of what might be learned if it continues." - George Will 

My question is this...

...what demographic is being polled? I work from home and most, if not all polling calls come in during the middle of the day. Most of my friends, peers and colleagues (who don't own their own businesses) are gainfully employed and at work during the day.

So what is the "true" demographic - the Oprah, View and "Days of our Live's" viewers? What political leanings do these groups have? Why is this not reported on further, or at least discussed?

Could it be the deck is stacked with a lopsided, Democrat leaning audience that may not tell the truth to get a home loan, much less honestly answer polling questions?

Just curious.

Good point

Good point

Those who have not swords can still die upon them.

Watchagonnadowendacomfoyou?

Either way, come Nov. 5th, there's going to be a whole lotta of wailing and knashing of teeth. An Obama administration will be like going on a 4 year road trip in an 18 wheeler with a manic-depressive, Hollywood crack whore at the wheel; exciting but deadly. A McCain administration will be like....will be.... like...(well hell, never mind, for better or worse, the voices in my head have stopped.) Time to feed the birds.

Poll is good news -- Bill and Hill will work Harder against BHO

This will motivate PUMAs
Bill Clinton will book some more interviews.
Meanwhile, Americans still remember the Kerry FLORIDA exit polls . . . being WRONG !
It also sets up the MSM as being Untrustworthy.
The Republican Revolution will not be Televised

Hey Rich... This is great

Hey Rich...

This is great work...thank you.

When I saw that poll and heard about it endlessly, especially on msnbc...I laughed my self silly...

Who in their right mind would pay any attention to that in the first place in the real world...

With the exception of the leftist msm and the loony leftist bloggers.

"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh

The Broadcast Media....Polls, etc.

Whatever happened to any semblence of accuracy and objectivity in reporting the news?  When is the media going to realize their error in taking sides in a presidential campaign.  Wasn't anything learned in the totally inaccurate exit polls taken during the last two elections?  It seems to me that today's political campaign news is based more on wishful thinking than pure fact.  What a shame.  One can only hope that there will be a lot of on air bufoons "eating crow" in November.  Especially those at ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and the always deplorable MSNBC.

I think Zogby's comments

I think Zogby's comments are intriguing, and why I think most of the polling data is actually just a red herring.

Pollster says election could end in landslide

Jill Terreri • Staff writer

One of the country's top pollsters was in Rochester on Thursday and suggested that the November presidential election will end in an electoral landslide, even though the candidates are running close.

"Essentially the election is at equilibrium," said John Zogby, president of Zogby International. "This election will stay close until the end."

Zogby said he thinks the race will turn in the last weekend before Election Day and though the popular vote will be tight, the successful candidate will win in a landslide.

He likened this year's election to the contest in 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter.

"This may be and probably is the most important election in our lifetime," Zogby said. "I don't say that lightly."

Despite two books by Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, Americans still don't know enough about him. And if they don't think they know him well enough by the time they vote, they'll go with the "comfortable old shoe," Republican Sen. John McCain, Zogby said.

If you are undecided at this point, I think that means Obama hasn't convinced you that he's qualified to be president... and I think he's already thrown the kitchen sink at voters to convince people. So undecided voters are going to favor McCain, and that's where the difference is going to lie.

*****

"People only insist that a debate stop when they are afraid of what might be learned if it continues." - George Will 

Hero... Hey thanks for

Hero...

Hey thanks for the info from Zogby...which I quite frankly am surprised about that he said this...of course he was a Clinton guy from the beginning...

...and that is exactly what is going to happen...the msm can spin all they want, I have thought for quite awhile now this is going to be a landslide, even the likes of ACORN, riots, dem/ACLU trial lawyers et al all aren't going to change this election.

I sure could be wrong, sure was before about the House election last time... 

"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh

bt... I just want one

bt...

I just want one person to tell me the real reason that ACORN still exists!!!!

What Caused Our Economic Crisis?

 

 

Making Fun of AGW http://giovanniworld.wordpress.com/  

Ct... It is really beyond

Ct...

It is really beyond me...I cannot believe the group as a whole has not been sued, disbanded and a heck of a lot of them jailed, including Obama.

Socialism/communism/marxism at it's best...take your pick.

By the way, I don't think groups like CAIR, A.N.S.W.E.R. or the ACLU are much better or far behind. 

"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh

The ACLU probably

The ACLU probably represents ACORN whenever they get into trouble!

It really is amazing that an outfit like ACORN, that has been caught doing so many illegal and unethical deeds, and yet they still are able to get politicians to throw them money. OUR MONEY!

What Caused Our Economic Crisis?

 

 

Making Fun of AGW http://giovanniworld.wordpress.com/  

ACORN will exist as long as

ACORN will exist as long as they are the backbone of the DNC voter registration team. The deceased citizens ACORN registers are extremely important to the democrat base. These voters have decided many elections in nearby New Orleans, Sen Mary Landrieu owes her success to these very people.

Hey CT...Wanna know why..?

So the Dems can include them in the Bail out Package. It was 3 pages, and now it's up to 104 and I really did hear somewhere they wanted money for ACORN........Un Believable. Where are the leaders of this country..........Get up in front of a mike a spill the beans on the whole deal..........It's all a friggen secrete.....B.S                             Steve

 

"If your 20 and not a Liberal, You have no Heart. If you are 40 and not a Conservative, You have no Brain"    Sir Winston Churchhill

Good news for us

I heard Hannity discussing the poll the other day.  In addition to the oversampling of Democrats, the pollsters also oversampled black voters, who have been breaking about 90% for Obama.  If I were on Team Barry I'd be worried right now.  Even with cooking the poll this much they were still able to give him only a 9 point lead. 

Skewed Polls

Polling is reality in news.  The media convince themselves that they are showing the truth by putting out skewed polls.

But historically, undecideds tend to vote slightly in favor of the 'winner' just to be on the right side.  So when the liberal media puts out polls showing their guy winning, they figure to get an extra point or two in mind-numbed 'undecideds' voters on election day.

But it will be the racists who prevent Obama from winner.  Be sure of that.  Everybody who doesn't vote for Obama will be labled a racist.  And if they are in St. Louis, the City Attorney might even put you in jail for it.