Newsweek Puzzled by Rapid Obama Drop in Poll

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Gee, how can that be? Just last month, the Newsweek poll showed Barack Obama with a large 15 point lead over John McCain which Newsweek announced as "Barack's Bounce." However, there is now trouble in River City as you can tell by the headline of the latest Newsweek poll story, "Glow Fading?" Yes, poor Obama has taken a big tumble in the latest Newsweek poll:

A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.

Newsweek seems to find this dramatic poll drop for Obama very puzzling (emphasis mine):

Obama's overall decline from the last NEWSWEEK Poll, published June 20, is hard to explain. Many critics questioned whether the Democrat's advantage over McCain was actually as great as the poll suggested, even though a survey taken during a similar time frame by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg showed a similarly large margin. Princeton Survey Research Associates, which conducted the poll for NEWSWEEK, says some of the discrepancy between the two most recent polls may be explained by sampling error.

...But perhaps most puzzling is how McCain could have gained traction in the past month. To date, direct engagement with Obama has not seemed to favor the GOP nominee. McCain has announced major initiatives on energy and the economy but failed to dominate the conversation on those issues. Last week's shake-up of the campaign's senior management did little to halt calls from Republicans for a major overhaul in McCain's message. Nor did it quell the lingering suspicion among Republicans that 2008 is simply destined to be a Democratic year. (Only 28 percent of voters in the new NEWSWEEK Poll approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as president.) McCain's biography still appears to be his greatest asset, with 55 percent of voters saying they have a favorable opinion of the Arizona senator, compared to 32 percent who have an unfavorable opinion. (Obama's favorable/unfavorable gap is virtually identical at 56 to 32.)

Newsweek might be puzzled by the new poll results but, ironically, their own story provides strong clues as to why Obama is now faring much more poorly in the polls:

...Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience--an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who'd slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June. Obama's reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage.

More seriously, some Obama supporters worry that the spectacle of their candidate eagerly embracing his old rival, Hillary Clinton, and traveling the country courting big donors at lavish fund-raisers, may have done lasting damage to his image as an arbiter of a new kind of politics. This is a major concern since Obama's outsider credentials, have, in the past, played a large part in his appeal to moderate, swing voters. In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June's NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.

My advice to Newsweek, which seems so puzzled by Obama's drop in the polls, is to read their own story. The answers are right there.

—P.J. Gladnick is a freelance writer and creator of the DUmmie FUnnies blog.


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The Jesse Jackson factor?

Maybe it is not really true, but it seems that Jesse's comment that he wanted to cut the n--ts off of Obama has lowered Obamas image.

Interestingly, the campaign styles are almost exact opposite. McCain is low-key, soft-spoken, issue oriented, steady, direct and candit. Obama, is slogan-oriented, loud, flip-floppy on issues, less than steady, and a little indirect.

Maybe since Hillary did not get the nomination, Jesse can help Obama appeal to more women by cutting off his n--ts?

 

Jesse can help Obama appeal

Jesse can help Obama appeal to more women by cutting off his n--ts? 

 By women, do you mean liberal women and/or feminists?

  MSM - shaping all the perceptions you need to believe, then confirming it with a poll.

That poll, like any

That poll, like any left-winged media poll is designed to fill the empty space of the front page of newspapers like the NYT or the WaPo, and to send a chill up Chris Matthews' leg.

As for Jackson:  Jesse

As for Jackson:  Jesse Jackson's off-mic comments only make certain people feel sympathetic toward Barry.  The fact that Barry has spent the last month reinventing himself as some centrist, only confirms that this Newsweek poll is bogus.

Newsweak = Clueless

The difference in this poll and the earlier Newsweak poll is easy to sniff out-the polling sample.

The June poll over-sampled Democrats by something like 14 points (that LA Times poll did the same thing). According to the methodology in this poll, the sample was more evenly matched.

O'bama's big worry from this poll result is that he's being abandoned by Independents.

Poll voters aren't

Poll voters aren't flip-flopping, they're just "re-calibrating" their position.

Obama is like Air America. The MSM hyped it and hyped it and provided billions of dollars worth of free publicity and got everybody all excited, but once the public sampled the actual product, it was all over but the crying.

When asked if he went to war with Iraq to derail the impeachment vote: “I don’t think any serious person would believe that any President would do such a thing." - President Clinton (Dec 1998).

Every time I see that photo

Every time I see that photo of Obama I think Sammy Davis Jr.

The photoshopped one with cigarette, even moreso.

As for his "new kind" of politics...what a joke.

Along with the Sammy Davis resemblance, he makes me think of the Paul Shanklin parody of Davis's "I Gotta Be Me" done in a Bill Clinton impersonation and retitled "It's All About ME"...

That's Obama's "new kind of politics."

 

Shoot 'em all; let God sort 'em out! - Marge Simpson

Smoke, smoke, smoke that cigarette

The photoshopped one with cigarette, even moreso.

That got me to thinking. Obama is a smoker but have you ever seen him smoking a cigarette? The MSM must be hiding his bad habit. He's surely a bad example for 'the children'.

LOL

D

Keep the ILLEGALS out, join NumbersUSA to send free faxes to your reps.

He quit when he started his

He quit when he started his campaign...at least in public. I read that he chews Nicorette. A reporter asked him once when he had smoked last and he admitted to having "a few" in the past several months.

The funny thing is that he gets a pass on it. Can you imagine the talk about John McCain if he were a smoker? It would probably be described as a flaw; an inability to conquer a bad habit.

On John Gibson's show Malia Lazu of Young Democrats for America said of the smoking:

"I think Americans will be happy that his vice doesn't lead him to pages or to choking his mistress"

apparently in reference to scandals that plagued former Republican Reps. Mark Foley (FL) and Don Sherwood (PA).

John McWhorter, on the same show, said (emphasis added):

... Obama is seen as very, very cool. I think a lot of people find him sexy. And I think even in today's America, there's a sense that there's something vaguely sexy about cigarettes; you've got fire in your hand. So to tell you the truth, I think it will only help.

Aren't the hypocrisy and double standard amazing?

 

Shoot 'em all; let God sort 'em out! - Marge Simpson

15% under the bus

"I think Americans will be happy that his vice doesn't lead him to pages or to choking his mistress"

First name that came to my mind was; "put some ice on it" Horndog Clinton.

As far as the 15% poll drop -- Doesn't that translate into the number of old friends, aquaintances and associates Barry has thrown under the bus since the last poll?  

revision

Americans will be happy that his vice causes him to smoke cigars instead of using them for alternative entertainment.

You're right, though - if a Republican admitted to such a habit they'd be starting a pool on when he dies of lung cancer.

I also think it's very telling that they actually believe people will vote for Obama because it's cool to smoke cigarettes....yet when it comes to the average Joe on the street, they want to ban cigarettes in public and tax them excessively. So apparently smoking should be a luxury for the elite because they're cool enough to deserve it.

If McCain had any sense, he'd be broadcasting this gibberish everywhere.

i never knew O smoked, the msm forgot to mention that

now as much as i hate smoking, i will still defend a persons freedom to choose for themselves even if it is a bad choice and let that individual suffer the conseqences along with their choice, but it does seem very suspiciously bias of the msm for throwing a smoke screen over this facet of Os life. i never knew he smoked. i've seen a few who cares smear reports on mccain about his military service, wife, and i think ex wife but the msm can't even bring the truth out about Os character flaws and the smoking issue. what cowards the msm are. the msm just can't report the news anymore, all they can do is editorialize an event and push their agenda.

maybe it's the smoking that gives him that fine speaking voice.

by the way i'm just not spelling obama anymore, for now on i'm just calling him O. i'm basically mocking how his worshipers are overly dramatic about his appearence o, o, o, O, O, O, O GOD, and he leaves them quivering in a puddle of their own sweat. what overly dramatic attention seeking phoneys.

lunaticcringeradio

newsweek accidentally published an unbiased poll

without intending to, newsweek published an unbiased poll, as opposed to the previous polls they were publishing where they were only polling the handpicked obama sychophants.  

lunaticcringeradio

My question was. Did they

My question was. Did they goof and not weight the poll by polling 75% democrats. 

"There is a clear attempt to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition."
- Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Meteorology, MIT

(Only 28 percent of voters

(Only 28 percent of voters in the new NEWSWEEK Poll approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as president.)

And only 9 percent of those same voters approve of the Democrat congress. You think that may have something to do with it?

D

Keep the ILLEGALS out, join NumbersUSA to send free faxes to your reps.

Ugh, I hate this

Ugh, I hate this election...a Democrat vs a Liberal...what a coice.

gopsteve... Me

gopsteve...

Me too...

...and we are not alone.

I travel some, I talk to others...

We are not alone.

Sad isn't it. 

"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh

Newsweak, Why the

Newsweak,

Why the drop?

People are starting to look at BO as a candidate, not the rockstar out to beat Queen Hillery.  For the last month Obama has had a LITTLE attention focused on his one page resume and his circle of fiends.  Guess what, There is very little there and what there is, is not what America wants.

I still believe BO won't be on the ballet in NOV.

The DNC picked a Lemon.

 

"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference.
The MARINES don't have that problem."
President Ronald Reagan - 1985

I kow this isn't right, but

I kow this isn't right, but I do not want McCain to win...he will continue to "reach out" to everyone but his base.

Also, I would love to see Obama actually have to make some decisions rather than just his standard blame Bush comments.

GOPSteve, I used to think

GOPSteve,

I used to think the same thing until I started to take a closer look Obama.  I don't think America (as we know it) could survive it.  Not with a shaky economy, this congress, and the enemies of the world just waiting for us to elect this spineless pansie.  He has no idea what it takes to lead.

The world would pounce on us if we show this kind of weakness.

 

    

"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference.
The MARINES don't have that problem."
President Ronald Reagan - 1985

Yes, the four (or possibly

Yes, the four (or possibly eight) years of an Obama presidency would be dangerous. But far more dangerous would be any Supreme Court seats he would have the chance to fill. That prospect scares me more than anything.

DaBird, what makes you believe

that McCain would try to appoint conservatives to the Supreme Court?  Even if he did, there would be no way of getting them through Chuck Schumer and his boys.  My guess is that McCain would nominate those a little left of Justice Kennedy.  Whoever wins, we lose.

I'm with GOP...let Obama have it for 4 years.  The Republican party has to revamp and get rid of its pathetic wussyboy leadership and find some real, red-blooded conservatives.  The mid-term election would see the Demonrats thrown out of control because they would continue to screw things up to a faretheewell.  Conservatives clamp down on Obama.  2012 sees the next Reagan.  McCain is a Democrats.  I don't vote for Democrats.  4 years of liberal McCain guarantees a Hitlery 2012 win.

Jeff Lebowski

www.angrywhitedude.c...

I disagree Jeff, After 4

I disagree Jeff,

After 4 years of Obama the republicans would be able to run some one left of McCain and win.  Then you're stuck with that running the country.  If there is anything left of the country that is. 

Believe me when I say that the RNC needs to wake the hell up but to sacrafice the country to prove this point is not worth it.  I would rather see the RNC leadership get their $hit in a pile and hammer Pelosi and the bunch.  The RNC will get the message by loosing an assload of seats in the house and senate this election.  Hopefully the Rinos are the ones kicked out.  We can kill in the mid-term with true conservative Republicans.

McCain may be a democrat but Obama is a commie sock puppet.

"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference.
The MARINES don't have that problem."
President Ronald Reagan - 1985

Classic dilemma

I just don't think we can take a holiday on Supreme Court judges. Given a choice between a candidate who claims to want to nominate an originalist versus someone who wants to nominate another "living constitution" Sith Lord, I'd rather go down fighting. Make them earn it, if nothing else. I'm sure as hell not going to make it easy for them.

The one possibility that makes McCain attractive is that with a Congress of dedicated Democrats, what does McCain have to lose? What do they tell soldiers who get caught in the open when the enemy opens fire? Dropping to the ground will get you killed for sure. Your only hope is to fight your way out. You may get killed anyway, but if you're going to go, go down fighting.

that's the rub

The problem with this argument is that there will always be a war to win, a recession to stop, a judge to replace, a tax to veto. The GOP takes advantage of this Catch 22 and it thus given no incentive to do any better. Disgruntled Republicans have been going around this for the past 20 years while the party shifts ever leftward.

When we're voting for Barack Obama to stop Fidel Castro it'll be too late.

"When we're voting for

"When we're voting for Barack Obama to stop Fidel Castro it'll be too late."

So, you'd prefer to end the suspense, embrace the socialism, and complete the transformation over the next 4 years? Sorry, count me out.

"I'm with GOP...let Obama

"I'm with GOP...let Obama have it for 4 years. The Republican party has
to revamp and get rid of its pathetic wussyboy leadership and find some
real, red-blooded conservatives. The mid-term election would see the
Demonrats thrown out of control because they would continue to screw
things up to a faretheewell. Conservatives clamp down on Obama. 2012
sees the next Reagan.
"

Nonsense. We've had one Reagan in the last 40 years. Presidents like that don't materialize out of thin air just because Democrats screw things up. And you're logic doesn't really make sense anyway. Why would a liberal Obama make the country ready for a Conservative, but a liberal McCain will make the country ready for an even more liberal Hillary?

My family and the country is my priority, not the Republican party. McCain might be a disaster; Obama will be a disaster. I'll take "might" over "will" everytime. It's not even close. It would be different if they were virtually identical, but they aren't. As much as I despise McCain and some of his policies, there are huge differences between the two. Those are what I'll be voting on.

 

I and many others thought

I and many others thought that way once. And I got 8 years of Bubba and Gore.

I and the country paid for that. 

"There is a clear attempt to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition."
- Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Meteorology, MIT

And You're Still Paying

The current problems with mortgage lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in no small part due to the utter mismanagement of said entities over the past 10 or so years by a batch of Democrat insiders who were at the top. They included Clinton's Budget manager and his assistant attorney general.

You may remember the latter, as a Clinton person she also created the CIA-FBI wall that prevented us from connecting the dots on 9/11. She was "rewarded" with a seat on the 9/11 Commission, where she couldn't be questioned under oath.

Semper

You are totally right. Without his teleprompter he is just an empty suit like John Edwards.

My son in law's current enlistment with the Marines is up in June 09. He wants to stay in but he said he would have to leave if BHO got elected. His main concern is throwing the doors open for homsexuals.   

Be kind to your kids. They'll be choosing your nursing home.

Poll correction

Um... maybe it's because their first poll was pure BS.

 

Every other poll showed Obama up by 3-5.  Newsweek comes out and shows Obama up by 15. This week, Newsweek's poll shows Obama up by 3-5 and they are confused.  If they truly are confused about why the 10 point drop in the polls, then they really need take a statistics course before trying their next poll.


 

"To send men to the firing squad, judicial proof is unnecessary." Ernesto "Che" Guevara


Newsweek puzzled?

Newsweek puzzled? If they their spent time reporting the news instead of formulating the news, they might just get it right occasionally.

Any bets on when the first

Any bets on when the first charges of racism will fly?

(never mind the fact that 92 % will vote BO)

LA Times wasn't puzzled by Obama's drop in poll

LA Times wasn't puzzled by Obama's drop in poll. They blew off the whole bad week that Obama had, and instead front paged, A week McCain may wish to forget".

Now to give the folks at the tabloid some credit, they did note,

"All candidates, including Obama, have had worse weeks."

Of course, they're just not going to put evidence of such on their front page.

Then continued,

But, behind in the polls, the Arizona senator can hardly afford such diversion.

Man is that ever the truth. Shaved 12 points off this week. Imagine how many points he could shave off Obama's lead (3 left to go) if he had a good week?

Color me invisible. (;~> gary

Can't see you, Gary

:) 

Great analysis.

David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive

 

Blondie - Yo babe.

Blondie - Yo babe. You always make my day. (;~> gary

Just watch...

The MSM is going to revise those poll numbers back to the 15point lead for Obama, all the way through the general election, and then the moonbats will claim voter fraud when McCain wins.

That, or the poll numbers will stay the way they are, and, come the election, without regard to the winner, the moonbats will claim the MSM is in the tank for the GOP.

Either way, the moonbats have their "GOP IS EVIL" mantra reinforced.

Fascism is a religious conception in which man is seen in his imminent relationship with a superior law and with an objective will that transcends the particular individual - Mussolini

Lordly Lordly

I keep harping on this, but Barry Hussein's arrogance is repulsive. The more he's in front of the American electorate, the more they're going to see his prissy superbity. The guy makes the haughty John Kerry look like a down home goat farmer.

The American public can only take so much from a candidate who sits with his head cocked like he's thoughtfully watching Oprah while receiving a pedicure.

The Democrats have nominated a bad candidate, but the GOP has nominated a worse one.

If I were formulating a campaign strategy against someone as self-important and arrogant as BHO, I would constantly lampoon his attitude. I would constantly call him "The Messiah" and remind people that the left in this country worship government, which is why he is their savior.

I'd also pick at him. I can see this guy losing his temper at some point.

I'm also tired of hearing what a great orator he is. When he's off cue, he's simply terrible. He rambles, and he says "uh" too much. I think Democrats have to say "uh" a lot because they have to measure each and every word they say. They live in fear of offending someone that they search for the exact right word.

I hope that in a debate McCain points out that Barry doesn't understand the role of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Contrary to what the media says, deep down the American public wants a commander-in-chief and not a community activist in the White House.

   Besides all the

   Besides all the reasons already discussed probably the energy mess is viewed by voters as a serious international crisis.  This rise in energy hurts more people than what a terrorist bombing could.  In such a situation voters will be drawn to the more experienced candidate. 

   I grew up during the cold war.  Those were serious times.  Candidates like bubba and obama would not have gotten anywhere.

Wide inconsistency and

Wide spread inconsistency in methodology and results among public polls is a big reason why polls have become inane and useless - except as a media tool to promote an agenda -which itself is another reason why polls have become inane and useless.

McNotObama '08