ClimateGate's Michael Mann Being Investigated By Penn State

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As a result of the growing ClimateGate scandal, Penn State University is investigating Michael Mann, its high-profile professor on the sending and receiving end of controversial e-mail messages recently obtained from a British Climate Research Unit.

Mann, as one of the originators of the infamous Hockey Stick graph, is the climatologist at the very heart of the global warming myth.

As the creator of "Mike's Nature trick," a particularly damning phrase used in one of the e-mail messages in question, Mann is also a key figure in ClimateGate. 

Given his importance to the climate movement and all those involved including Nobel Laureate Al Gore, President Obama, and Congressional Democrats desperately trying to enact cap and trade legislation, it will be very interesting to see how this press release from Penn State gets reported in the coming days (h/t Anthony Watts via Marc Morano):

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Professor Michael Mann is a highly regarded member of the Penn State faculty conducting research on climate change. Professor Mann's research papers have been published in well respected peer-reviewed scientific journals. In November 2005, Representative Sherwood Boehlert (R-NY) requested that the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) convene a panel of independent experts to investigate Professor Mann's seminal 1999 reconstruction of the global surface temperature over the past 1,000 years. The resulting 2006 report of the NAS panel (http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11676) concluded that Mann's results were sound and has been subsequently supported by an array of evidence that includes additional large-scale surface temperature reconstructions.

In recent days a lengthy file of emails has been made public. Some of the questions raised through those emails may have been addressed already by the NAS investigation but others may not have been considered. The University is looking into this matter further, following a well defined policy used in such cases. No public discussion of the matter will occur while the University is reviewing the concerns that have been raised.

Here are a couple of key e-mail messages involving Mann:

From: Phil Jones
To: ray bradley ,mann@xxxxx.xxx, mhughes@xxxx.xxx
Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000
Cc: k.briffa@xxx.xx.xx,t.osborn@xxxx.xxx

Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,

Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or
first thing tomorrow.

I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.

Thanks for the comments, Ray.

Cheers
Phil

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) xxxxx
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) xxxx
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@xxxx.xxx
NR4 7TJ
UK

And (via Tom Nelson, emphasis his):

From: "Michael E. Mann" ,,,Subject: RE: IPCC revisions Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 12:35:24 -0400
...
Walked into this hornet's nest this morning! Keith and Phil have both raised some very good points. And I should point out that Chris, through no fault of his own, but probably through ME not conveying my thoughts very clearly to the others, definitely overstates any singular confidence I have in my own (Mann et al) series.
...I had been using the entire 20th century, but in the case of Keith's, we need to align the first half of the 20th century w/ the corresponding mean values of the other series, due to the late 20th century decline.

So if Chris and Tom (?) are ok with this, I would be happy to add Keith's series. That having been said, it does raise a conundrum: We demonstrate (through comparining an exatropical averaging of our nothern hemisphere patterns with Phil's more extratropical series) that the major discrepancies between Phil's and our series can be explained in terms of spatial sampling/latitudinal emphasis (seasonality seems to be secondary here, but probably explains much of the residual differences). But that explanation certainly can't rectify why Keith's series, which has similar seasonality *and* latitudinal emphasis to Phil's series, differs in large part in exactly the opposite direction that Phil's does from ours. This is the problem we all picked up on (everyone in the room at IPCC was in agreement that this was a problem and a potential distraction/detraction from the reasonably concensus viewpoint we'd like to show w/ the Jones et al and Mann et al series.

So, if we show Keith's series in this plot, we have to comment that "something else" is responsible for the discrepancies in this case. Perhaps Keith can help us out a bit by explaining the processing that went into the series and the potential factors that might lead to it being "warmer" than the Jones et al and Mann et al series?? We would need to put in a few words in this regard. Otherwise, the skeptics have an field day casting doubt on our ability to understand the factors that influence these estimates and, thus, can undermine faith in the paleoestimates. I don't think that doubt is scientifically justified, and I'd hate to be the one to have to give it fodder!

How will media report this?

Stay tuned.

—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters. Follow him at Facebook and Twitter.


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Panel of Independent Experts

If they use the same panel, probably made up of Mann's cronies, then they won't come to a different conclusion. Supposedly the only recognized experts are those that publish in peer-reviewed journals, journals that have been designated as such by the same people being investigated.

I smell cover-up in the

I smell cover-up in the air.

How much federal money has mann pulled into the university over the years?

How will the 'independent panel' justify losing all those dollars because of a minor little incident of fraud?

We shall see.

Obama, the first "alleged" president

http://gjresult.com

 

Exactly.  There is a 0%

Exactly.  There is a 0% chance that they find any wrong doing by Mann.

Fortunately, the left has sowed so much cynicism and suspicision in people's hearts over the decades that no one will buy the "results" anyway.

Why are all of these

Why are all of these scientific investigations held in private with no outside watchdog? Peer reviewed...hehe.

Penn State Can't Get The Facts Right

It was not  (Rep)Sherwood Boehlert who called for the investigations as the PSU release states, rather, it was (Rep) Joe Barton.  Boehlert made a vehement demand that Barton call off the investigation.  If Penn State can't get this fact right I find myself wondering just how useful any investigation by them will be.

UPDATE: Conflicting "facts".  It Appears Boehlert may have called for the NAS to look into Mann's research, but this was apparently after Barton began his investigation, and only after the NAS made the offer to investigate.  In its report the NAS attributes the motive to Boehlert.  Boehlert, it should be noted, is an "ardent environmental activist".   Which is correct?   

Is it Christmas?

Noel,

It feels like Christmas and each gift is better than the last!

Worried

Worried,

Nah. If it was Christmas, I wouldn't be working!!!  ns

How will the media report it?

I'm not sure Noel.  Let's jam a hockey stick up Mann's posterior and see how many journalists end up in the hospital with major head trauma... 

hockey stick

Priceless !!

Wait until Penn State sees their grant money going up in smoke

When they do, this "investigation" will disappear faster than you can say "boo."

-Dave

Our elected representatives have failed us.  

PENN STATE...

When PSU hits the alumni up for donations, those who care about about the truth should mention Mann & so no. Not until he is dealt with. 

 

"...How blind can you be, don't you see...

...that the gambler lost all he does not have..."  

Nightwish

Penn State will NOT loose

Penn State will NOT loose grant money. The liberal/socialist/environmentalist cabal realize the global warming fraud is the only way to impose socialistic control over the USA and will NEVER voluntarily give up that power. Expect ACORN's money to be restored before the midterm election so they can steal enough votes to maintain socialist control in the House.

cover up!

At most we're going to hear that "there are honest differences," etc., etc. and that the process was vetted by 'experts in the field' and found to be scientifically defensible.

I mean Chris Columbus's scientists and mathmaticians misjudged the diameter of the Earth so he found the Americas instead of India. Are we going to pursue them for 'fraud'??

Perhaps the Professors approach is not entirely correct but he did his best scientifically to get a correct result.

TRANSLATION: fake but accurate.

[move along, nothing to see here]

How will media report this?

They will not.... 

Plain and simple.

The Media will NOT report it, even if questioned.

That's right, TJ.

MSM: Penn State? Never heard of them.

MSM: Oh, the climate stuff at PU. Well, the football team has to play in all sorts of weather, don't they?

MSM: e-mails? I'm sure they have e-mail capability at PU. Don't be silly.

MSM: Mann? Yeah, and women too. They're coed.

__________
"mmm, mmm, mm. Barrack-Hussain-Øbama↓." - The liberals coolaid drinking song

Precedent

Let's hope he goes the way of Michael Belleisles, another con-man.

con-men

As a scientist I am extremely aggrieved by the falsification of facts, compounded by the arrogance of these people. What needs to happen is that each of these so-called scientists
be investigated by their respective institution and, if found guilty of malpractice,
Censured
Stripped of their titles, laurels, etc.
Fired
Arrested and tried for misuse of public funds
Made to pay back such funds, even if it takes a lifetime
Never able to engage in academic work or teaching again

[I’d like to add tar and feathering, followed by ridden out of town on a rail but that would be wishful thinking.]

Wishful thinking

...and a total waste of perfectly good tar and feathers.

And punishing an

And punishing an unsuspecting 'next town' down the line that gets stuck with the garbage.

How about one year in prison for each million taxpayers dollars granted to his/her research team?

Obama, the first "alleged" president

http://gjresult.com

 

Mann-Made Global Warming

This is really interesting. I'd have to assume that the University is getting out "in front of this thing" now, and will hedge until they see how much traction this scandal generates. They've got to be careful; they can't steadfastly stand by their guy and risk major damage to the school's reputation and science program going forward if by some freak of nature this actually brings down the AGW argument. If it flames out like a 1990's sunspot, then they don't want to hang the guy too soon. So, PC statement released- now we circle the wagons and wait this thing out. I suspect the media will report it as frequently as they have everything else Climategate.

I couldn't resist helping to elevate his standing however, which is why I opted to highlight him on this billboard.

Everyone in the room at IPCC

"everyone in the room at IPCC was in agreement that this was a problem and a potential distraction/detraction from the reasonably concensus viewpoint we'd like to show ...".

You mean it sends the wrong "message"? As in "An Inconvenient Truth"?

"Otherwise, the skeptics ... can undermine faith ..."

Faith? You mean like in religion?

From these statements, it is very clear to me as a scientist that nothing that Mann or "everyone in the room at IPCC" publishes can be considered science. When acting as a scientist, one is always skeptical; there is no room for faith. This is not some naive idealism. Scientists are free to go crazy on their own time. It is simply how science is defined.

WE ARE PENN STATE

This alum is glad to see an investigation is happening.  The results are also important, but I think the necessary first step is to find out what is actually being funded by our tax dollars.  This panic and scam must stop.  Formal investigations are the first step.

Dr. Mann should have remembered the alma mater:  "May no act of ours bring shame to one heart that loves thy name."

peer review

One trouble with peer review on this issue is that enough climate research 'peers' share the vision of a global-Socialism utopia to give the hoax a semi-legitimate look and feel, and those 'peers' who differ can be dismissed as being either mistaken, misled, or shilling for the energy companies.

As long as the MSM treats this as a non-story, though (along with Barry's birth certificate mystery and ACORN's illicit shenanigans), it'll be up to the principled rogues in the new press to carry the weight (and take the shots).  Hang in there, Noel.

peer review my foot

excerpt from email file 1051202354.txt (my Bold)

This second case gets to the crux of the matter. I suspect that deFreitas deliberately chose other referees who are members of the skeptics camp. I also suspect that he has done this on other occasions. How to deal with this is unclear, since there are a number of individuals with bona fide scientific credentials who could be used by an unscrupulous editor to ensure that 'anti-greenhouse' science can get through the peer review process

The peer review process is being abused, but proving this would be difficult. (Legates, Balling, Lindzen, Baliunas, Soon, and so on).

[this was signed by Tom Wigley]

 

In other words it is unscrupulous to allow dissenting research to be published?

 

Peer Review is being abused

Peer Review is being abused by allowing people with credentials to publish serious but opposing viewpoints?  This IS NOT SCIENCE, this is FASCISM. 

I say give ALL these 'scientists' the business...

These scientists tried to collude with colleges, government and the media to push a mega-trillion dollar FRAUD.  They demaned that anyone who criticized their ideas be drawn and quartered by the media and drummed out of business.

Well I say it's time THEY got the same treatment.  They keep speaking of 'peer review'.  Let them put their models and papers up for public scrutiny if they're so sure of them.  I say put them through the same microscope intensity anal-exam that they've demanded for everyone else and see if their ideas can take the pressure.

If they've been telling the truth, they've got nothing to be afraid of.  But if (as I suspect) they've been lying through their stinking yellow teeth, then let them burn and blister under the light of truth instead of festering in the darkness of secrecy, as they have been up until recently.

This is the weapon that the left and Al Gore have been trembling in fear of for decades - the TRUTH.

We've got some good one-liners now to use.  'Mann-made Global Warming', 'Con-Mann' and the like.  Let's get them viral people.

But let's not let it distract from their equally corrupt government medical takeover.

one-liners

Since there's a Tom Wigley can we make up some more?

No Wigley room?

Wigley your way out of this.

Recently hacked email from 1659

From: Phil Jones , pjones@science4clunkers.alg
To: Mike Mann , mann@pu_science.oops
Subject: Settled Science
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1659 13:31:15 +0000

Dear Mike,

I can't seem to fathom why people don't realize that the science behind this is already settled. The overwelming consensus among scientists is that we are correct.

I don't know why they keep dredging up all these guys who we've repeatedly shown to be the quacks that they are. This Copernicus guy we dealt with quite awhile ago. Then this flap over correcting some of the data Tycho Brahe had floating around. This Kepler guy just won't shut up about that will he? Remind everyone to quit using the data after 1570 and we'll be just fine on this.

And wow, that Galileo, maybe if we should just start spreading the rumor that he was just bought off by "Big Telescope", that'll shut him up.

"Sun as the center of the solar system", what a joke, they actually believe this nonsense...

Cheers
Phil

This "investigation" means

This "investigation" means nothing. He will be cleared of any wrongdoing.

→ Maybe not

Firing a tenured professor for "cause" may be an economic decision.

LYDSEXICS UNTIE!

"How will media report

"How will media report this?"

They won't.

"faith" ... "doubt" ... sounds like a RELIGION not SCIENCE ...

... and meanwhile ... THE SUN IS BLANK!

http://spaceweather.com/

 knuckle-heads.

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 5 day
2009 total: 248 days (75%)
Since 2004: 759 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days

http://spaceweather.com

 

Protecting Their Turf

The Penn State press release states:

The resulting 2006 report of the NAS panel
(http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11676) concluded that Mann's
results were sound and has been subsequently supported by an array of
evidence that includes additional large-scale surface temperature
reconstructions.

What a complete load of political BS spin. Since Penn State hired Bristlecone Mike 7 years after his hockey stick was created, they obviously are not going to say otherwise.

The bogus hockey stick was first published in Nature in 1998. After Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick (known as MM) repeatedly commented to Nature, Mann was forced to publish a corrigendum. This was done on July Ist, 2004. Nature's policies describe a corrigendum as:

"notification of an important error made by the authors [Nature’s bold] that affects the publication record or the scientific integrity of the
paper, or the reputation of the
authors or the journal. " 

Shortly after this in 2005, McIntyre and McKitrick had an official peer reviewed paper in GRL describing the statistical gymnastics at play here.

The Wegman Report before congress in 2006 was a damning indictment of Mann's work. Highlights of this report include:

The debate over Dr. Mann's principal components
methodology has been going on for nearly three years. When we got
involved, there was no evidence that a single issue was resolved or
even nearing resolution. Dr. Mann's RealClimate.org
website said that all of the Mr. McIntyre and Dr. McKitrick claims had
been 'discredited'. UCAR had issued a news release saying that all
their claims were 'unfounded'. Mr. McIntyre replied on the ClimateAudit.org
website. The climate science community seemed unable to either refute
McIntyre's claims or accept them. The situation was ripe for a
third-party review of the types that we and Dr. North's NRC panel have
done.

While the work of Michael Mann and colleagues presents what appears
to be compelling evidence of global temperature change, the criticisms
of McIntyre and McKitrick, as well as those of other authors mentioned
are indeed valid.

"Where we have commonality, I believe our report and the [NAS] panel
essentially agree. We believe that our discussion together with the
discussion from the NRC report should take the 'centering' issue off
the table. [Mann's] decentred methodology is simply incorrect
mathematics …. I am baffled by the claim that the incorrect method
doesn't matter because the answer is correct anyway.
Method Wrong + Answer Correct = Bad Science.

The papers of Mann et al. in themselves are written in a confusing
manner, making it difficult for the reader to discern the actual
methodology and what uncertainty is actually associated with these
reconstructions.

It is not clear that Dr. Mann and his associates even realized that
their methodology was faulty at the time of writing the [Mann] paper.

We found MBH98 and MBH99 to be somewhat obscure and incomplete and the criticisms of MM03/05a/05b to be valid and compelling.

Overall, our committee believes that Mann's assessments that the
decade of the 1990s was the hottest decade of the millennium and that
1998 was the hottest year of the millennium cannot be supported by his
analysis.

[The] fact that their paper fit some policy agendas has greatly
enhanced their paper's visibility… The 'hockey stick' reconstruction of
temperature graphic dramatically illustrated the global warming issue
and was adopted by the IPCC and many governments as the poster graphic.
The graphics' prominence together with the fact that it is based on
incorrect use of [principal components analysis] puts Dr. Mann and his
co-authors in a difficult face-saving position.

We have been to Michael Mann's University of Virginia website and
downloaded the materials there. Unfortunately, we did not find adequate
material to reproduce the MBH98 materials. We have been able to
reproduce the results of McIntyre and McKitrick

Generally speaking, the paleoclimatology community has not
recognized the validity of the [McIntyre and McKitrick] papers and has
tended dismiss their results as being developed by biased amateurs. The
paleoclimatology community seems to be tightly coupled as indicated by
our social network analysis, has rallied around the [Mann] position,
and has issued an extensive series of alternative assessments most of
which appear to support the conclusions of MBH98/99… Our findings from
this analysis suggest that authors in the area of paleoclimate studies
are closely connected and thus 'independent studies' may not be as
independent as they might appear on the surface.

It is important to note the isolation of the paleoclimate community;
even though they rely heavily on statistical methods they do not seem
to be interacting with the statistical community. Additionally, we
judge that the sharing of research materials, data and results was
haphazardly and grudgingly done. In this case we judge that there was
too much reliance on peer review, which was not necessarily independent.

Based on the literature we have reviewed, there is no overarching
consensus on [Mann's work]. As analyzed in our social network, there is
a tightly knit group of individuals who passionately believe in their
thesis. However, our perception is that this group has a
self-reinforcing feedback mechanism and, moreover, the work has been
sufficiently politicized that they can hardly reassess their public
positions without losing credibility.

It is clear that many of the proxies are re-used in most of the
papers. It is not surprising that the papers would obtain similar
results and so cannot really claim to be independent verifications."

Especially when massive amounts of public monies and human lives are
at stake, academic work should have a more intense level of scrutiny
and review. It is especially the case that authors of policy-related
documents like the IPCC report, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific
Basis, should not be the same people as those that constructed the
academic papers."

The National Academy of Sciences also issued a report headed by Gerald North. Under Oath, North's testimony was: 

CHAIRMAN BARTON. I understand that. It looks like my time is expired,
so I want to ask one more question. Dr. North, do you dispute the
conclusions or the methodology of Dr. Wegman's report?


DR. NORTH. No, we don't. We don't disagree with their criticism. In fact, pretty much the same thing is said in our report. But again, just because the claims are made, doesn't mean they are false.


CHAIRMAN BARTON. I understand that you can have the right conclusion and that it not be–


DR. NORTH. It happens all the time in science.

Then NAS statistician expert Peter Bloomfield took the stand and said:

MR. BLOOMFIELD. Thank you. Yes, Peter Bloomfield. Our committee
reviewed the methodology used by Dr. Mann and his coworkers and we felt
that some of the choices they made were inappropriate. We had much the same misgivings about his work that was documented at much greater length by Dr. Wegman.

Mann's hockey stick has never been replicated. Wahl and Ammann claimed they did (both Mann buddies) and this turned out to be every bit the fraud as the original hockey stick (see Caspar and the Jesus paper). McIntyre's and Wegman's results were also confirmed by independent climate statisticians Hans von Storch and Edwuardo Zorita and by the American Statistical Association.

 

 

thanks

for the link to the Caspar and Jesus Paper - fascinating reading. Where are all the statisticians when you need them?

It would seem there needs

It would seem there needs to be an investigation not just of Dr Mann butg also the administrators at Penn State who sat by untill the prarie hockey puck hit the fan. And seem to still be trying to minimize and cover for him.

"You lie!"  Rep. Joe Wilson R-(SC)

As a Penn State graduate, I

As a Penn State graduate, I am embarrassed by the actions of Michael Mann.  I will be really outraged if they attempt to whitewash the investigation. 

Please join me in emailing the President of Penn State, Dr. Graham Spanier.  His email address is President@psu.edu.  I intend to be respectful but firm.  As a PSU grad and Pennsylvania taxpayer I want answers not a coverup.  Since this so called research will have an influence on Cap and Tax legislation it affects everyone on this list. 

 

Tom

Based on the questionable methods applied by Mann coupled with previous lame review attempts overseen by the oligarchy at Penn State you might have better results contacting the Penn State Paranormal Research Society.

PRS won't be quite as influenced in their findings by apparitions of the Ghost of Grant Money Future. Nor will there be that nasty University Prestiege Gremlin to confront when conducting these internal investigations.

Well - I am sending Glenn

Well - I am sending Glenn Beck the contact informaiton for President Graham Spanier, the board of trustees, the Pennsylvania legislature and most of all, the University Advancement office.  I intend to tell them there will be no further donations from me if this is whtewashed and I hope other alumni will do so as well.  I hope Glenn will cover this on his show

I think I found the theme

I think I found the theme music for AGW.  Tell me what you think.

"The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws" Tacitus

Another Ward Churchill

Another Ward Churchill deal?  Great.  Hope O'Reilly keeps out of this one.

One of the 34% who thinks George W. Bush was a great President. One of the 86% who wants to bring back the stock and pillory.

It's obvious now

The data has NEVER been analyzed, just distorted.

So how much money is it going to cost to actually tear-down the data, and who's going to do it. (Certainly not these clowns)

YEARS of analysis down the tubes, wasted taxpayer money, SOMEONE needs to go to jail. This is FRAUD and THEFT.

And btw, where the hell is the data? This whole project needs adult supervision, right now. 

Distorting or omitting data

email file 1225026120.txt - (my Bold)

From: Mick Kelly
To: P.Jones
Subject: RE: Global temperature
Date: Sun, 26 Oct 2008

Yeah, it wasn't so much 1998 and all that that I was concerned about, used
to dealing with that, but the possibility that we might be going through a
longer - 10 year - period of relatively stable temperatures beyond what you
might expect from La Nina etc.

Speculation, but if I see this as a possibility then others might also.
Anyway, I'll maybe cut the last few points off the filtered curve before I
give the talk again as that's trending down
as a result of the end effects
and the recent cold-ish years.

Mann looks like a weasel. 

Mann looks like a weasel.  Professors are second only to politicians in being worthless and self-absorbed.  They are the snakes and skunks of the human race.  I wonder if the guy has to pay to get laid.

marvl, So based on this

marvl,

So based on this guy's actions, all professors are worthless, self-absorbed snakes and skunks.

I'll be sure to bring that up at my next faculty meeting.

Maybe I'll also take up a collection so we can all get laid.

Do you suppose all

Do you suppose all professors are intellectually corrupt just because a few are shown to be?  

Mann reminds me of tobacco research

Big tobacco research investigated their own and found they were all on the up and up.  Mann will do fine unless funding and donations fall.  It is all about the money. 

A huge difference here. 

A huge difference here.  Big Tobacco funded their own research.  Mann is drawing his paycheck in large part from public grant money.

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