1% GDP Decline Good for Obama, 0.4% Drop Bad for Bush

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In today's "How's That Voodoonomics Working Out For You" segment, despite considering a 0.4 percent decline in the nation's Gross Domestic Product a calamity when George W. Bush was President, America's media applauded Friday's announcement that the GDP in the second quarter declined by one percent.

Of course, this is not at all surprising, for many of these same outlets cheered when businesses ONLY cut payrolls by 539,000 in April.

As an example of the merriment, here's how the Associated Press's Jeannine Aversa reported the news in her glass is half full piece entitled "US Economy Appears Poised to Start Growing Again":

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At long last, the worst recession since World War II appears on the verge of ending.

The economy dipped only slightly in the second quarter of this year — falling at a 1 percent annual pace, better than expected. And many analysts think the economy is starting to grow again in the current quarter, setting up a long-awaited recovery.

Yes, a one percent decline when Obama is in office means happy days are here again.

Yet, when the Commerce Department announced a 0.4 percent decline on October 31, 2001, Aversa saw it as the end of the world as we know it:

The economy, battered by a yearlong slowdown and the jolt of the terror attacks, shrank at a 0.4 percent rate from July through September, a decline that could signal the end to the longest economic expansion in U.S. history.

The drop in the gross domestic product - the total output of goods and services produced in the country - was the biggest since the first quarter of 1991 when the country was in the depths of the last recession, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

The weak performance reflected a sharp pullback in spending by consumers, which slowed to the weakest pace in more than eight years, and a continued plunge in investment by businesses in new plants and equipment.

Hmmm. So, down 0.4 percent was a "weak performance" under Bush signaling dark clouds, but down 1.0 percent under Obama is an economy that "dipped only slightly" portending clear skies ahead.

Everybody got that?

Of course, the AP wasn't the only outlet back then that foresaw storms on the horizon as a result of a 0.4 percent decline in GDP. Check out this November 1, 2001, editorial from the New York Times:

Gross domestic product shrank by 0.4 percent in the third quarter of this year. That performance was better than most analysts expected, but still the worst in a decade. The economy is probably contracting even faster now, and the recovery many had hoped to see by year's end is not likely to arrive until well into 2002.

During most of this year, consumers were the engine that propelled the economy while businesses drew down inventories and pared unneeded output. Yet even before Sept. 11 that lone pillar had started to crumble. Personal bankruptcies reportedly jumped in August. Late payments and write-offs of credit card debt had been rising for seven months.

The trend will almost certainly continue, since the terrorist attacks alone may have drained as many as 500,000 jobs from the economy. Companies not directly affected by Sept. 11, including almost all the telecom giants, have also let thousands of workers go. Claims for unemployment benefits have reached levels not seen since 1991.

Nice call, guys. After all, it turned out that recession actually ended that November -- likely within days of both these bearish articles being published!!! -- and the economy actually grew by 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2001, and 3.5 percent in the first quarter of 2002.

That aside, the better-than-expected numbers reported Friday were certainly cause for some optimism, but such should be guarded given the history of such things.

After all, if this is indeed the worst economic slowdown since the Great Depression, shouldn't it continue to behave as such?

Consider that in the first recession of the '70s, there were several false starts before a real recovery began. 

That recession started in the third quarter of 1973, but actually saw GDP growth in that year's fourth quarter, as well as the second quarter of 1974. Yet, the next expansion didn't officially start until the second quarter of 1975.

And, there was a similar pattern in that recession of an easing in the declination rate which ended up NOT signaling a recovery. The third quarter of '74 saw a 3.9 percent drop followed by a much smaller 1.6 percent decline in the fourth quarter.

Using today's logic, the first quarter of '75 should have been a continued improvement and maybe even have shown some growth. Not so, for the economy plunged by 4.8 percent that quarter, its worst performance of the entire recession.

Maybe most importantly, unemployment which peaked at 9.0 percent didn't begin to ease until June of '75.

The '80s recession also saw similar fits and starts to GDP growth before the recovery really began.

With this in mind, media might want to be more careful about jumping on the President's we've turned the corner bandwagon.

—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters. Follow him at Facebook and Twitter.


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AP- The only thing that can

AP- The only thing that can kill it now is a man named Bush.

Look, theses numbers are likely to be revised down and given that the celebration of -1% is based on the projections of -1.5%, what will they be writing in November when the revision shows and actual contraction of 1.6%? With so many shoes left to drop (commercial real estate being the next big one), I suspect this "move toward recovery" will be the byline for another year or so. 

Conversely, if in fact we've actually hit bottom and are trending upward, the stimulus has obviously been overstated and should be repealed. Any lasting upward trend beginning with this (another) quarter of negative growth (I might emphasize) would be the sole result of a regenerative economy with underlying capitalist principles- not the doling out of $70B to largely unhelpful and worthless pet projects.

We haven't hit rock bottom

We haven't hit rock bottom yet.  Wait for it... .

I'd say, "we're getting by."

Nationally, the economy hasn't reached the level of California.  Some states are still friendly to commerce and business.  Many of Obama's policies still have to be voted for and have not gone into effect.

I've read that some of Obama's environmental policies will devastate certain sectors of the economy.  Those effects won't be apparent for some time.  

Food prices will rise in a few months, maybe.

Energy prices will rise eventually.

Obama has been in power for 6 months.   All this policies are backward. He's dismantling the economy.  It's gonna be slow and painful.  Even if we don't crash immediately, it's not going to get better.  I don't think Obama cares.  He'll be happy if he's a one term deal if he cements the Democrats' foundation and make it hard for his successor to undue what he will do.

His first priority has been to strengthen the pillars of the Democratic party.  He's saved the autoworkers unions and preserved the future political and financial support they will provide his party.  Next is socialized medicine.  The more people on the governments teet, the better for his agenda.  A mix of more government workers and more people dependent on the government.

Anyhow, The economy runs of consumption.  If unemployment is high, people won't have methods of consuming in adequate amounts to keep the economy strong.  None of Obama's policies in any way stimulate investment or job growth in the private sector, they just stifle them.  He's limits what companies can do and thus limits the types of jobs that can be created.   Besides, he is rewarding weak businesses that can't compete in a free market, to add insult to injury.  His solution to unemployment is expanding bureaucracy.  If he doesn't succeed in creating more government jobs, there will be no jobs to be had with his policies. 

Job options:

- government

- heavily subsidized and unionized green job 

The Economy was always bad

The Economy was always bad according to the liberal media, when Bush was in office.  They always found something wrong with it.

They measured the state of the economy on the price of gasoline and Iraq war.  Gasoline is expensive and there is a war going on, so the economy must be tanking.  But.... GDP was growing, record low unemployment, rising stock market, etc.  All that didn't matter,  Bush was bad.  When Bush and the GOP were in charge of the government, the economy was weak even though it was strong.  "Well, the numbers hide the fact that the poorest of the poor are still poor.  The economy is a disaster!"  Remember that argument? The economy was tanking because poor people still existed.

Now we have Obama and Democrats in power. GDP sinking, record high unemployment, more national debt, fragile stock market, higher deficit, etc.  As the economy continues to nosedive, the media claims it is on an upward track.  Now that everyone is getting poorer, even the poorest... the future of the economy is looking bright.

At least, during the Bush and GOP congress, people had jobs to pay for their 3-4 dollar per gallon gas.  Now they don't have jobs to afford even the cheapest of necessities.  "People" turned on the GOP during the good times.  

This will continue.  As long as Obama is in office, the media will distort the truth in his favor.  

 

To NonArabOmar from........

an old cro Croatian. You took the thoughts right out of my head and typed them out for all to see. Thanks

Its like the little train

Its like the little train going up the steep hill. I think I can, I think I can. Baz says the economy is going the way he planned it.   You mean drop like rock and still going.  It's like they are crying wolf all the time, this month we are comming out of it, and even baz says its going great but I have to check next months unempoyment numbers first.   Dude does this guy have a clue, is there anything between those ears or what, The flies buzzing around his head LOL go in one ear and never come out.  

What? The expansion had long ended..right Noel?

What? The expansion had long ended.. during 2000 - right Noel? "

"...on October 31, 2001, Aversa saw it as the end of the world as we know it:"

The economy, battered by a yearlong slowdown and the jolt of the terror attacks, shrank t a 0.4 percent rate from July through September, a decline that could signal the end to the longest economic expansion in U.S. history.

Here, for a graphic look: Real Gross Domestic Product (Bureau of Economic Analysis).

Just a reminder, the dot.com economic bubble collapsed in early 2000 (March). Most all economic indicators had already sharply reversed course, or would during the course of 2000, Clinton's last year. The expansion was over long before Bush took office. At the end of the year, Democrats and Republicans were jockeying for position on what to do about the coming recession - it was not a well-kept secret.

Now, GDP fell off a cliff from the 2nd Q of 2000 to the 3rd Q (from roughly + 6.5% to - 0.5%). The 1st Q had already showed the hand of the future. We were basicly in a recession as Bush came into office, and exiting the recession on Oct 31, 2001 as you called it.

PS.. In the current Time Mag's.,  George W. Bush's Eight Biggest Economic Mistakes, Justin Fox's very 1st point in his list of 8 things is on the budget surpluses shift to deficits - he said, "Bush blew it apart within a few months." The MSM is off their rockers. 

The silly on paper projected budget surpluses were blown apart when the dot.com irrational exuberant economic bubble collapsed in early 2000. Bush couldn't keep them from occurring. One can always argue about Bush's effect on the economy years down the road - but as he came into office he was inheriting the coming future huge budget deficits. 

(;~> gary

 

Gary

Gary,

I'm not completely with you on that one. If Bush would have held spending growth to the rate of inflation, even with the decline in tax revenues after the tech bubble burst, we still would have had surpluses by 2005. 

Remember, by 2005, tax receipts exceeded the previous peak of $2.025 trillion in 2000. The reason we had a deficit that year is because spending had gone from $1.789 trillion in 2000 to $2.472 trillion in 2005 -- a 38 percent jump in only five years!!!

With revenues of $2.153 trillion in 2005, we would have had a balanced budget if spending would have only grown by 20 percent since 2000. 

So, if we could have merely increased spending by let's say 3.75% per year instead of over 7%, we would have had surpluses by 2005. Can't blame THAT on the tech bubble bursting. ns

Noel

Noel, I suspect that we can both find a corner here. Hint - I'm referring to more the initial shift back to deficits - you're on the later leg.

First of all, I think that Heritage, Krugman and even socialist Bush hater Dean Baker (see personal note from Baker, 2003, below**) agree with what I stated. The annual budget deficit hit (off the top of my head) some $350 billion by 2003. There was also the tax rebates in 2001 and 2002. And, there was the fallout from 9/11, including extroadinary spending associated with that. From 2003 forward - I'm instantly inclined to see it more your way (of course, I'd bet that a President Al Gore would have been spending more.)

How about this? The projected surpluses would have disappeared regardless of who was president in 2001 forward - and yes, Bush spent like mad.  

** gary ..At its peak in February of 2000, the value of all corporate equities, including privately traded shares was a bit over $17 trillion (this data comes from the Federal Reserve Board). Assuming that that market fell by 50 percent at its July lows, this implies a loss of $8.5 trillion. I believe the lower numbers that are often cited refer to either a shorter time stretch or a more narrow measure of stocks.

As far as the second question, the budget projections for 2002 assumed about $120 billion in capital gains tax revenue. We don't have the final numbers yet, but my guess is we probably will see something closer to $20-30 billion. There were also substantial revenue losses at the state level, especially California.

This, along with the fallout from the recession, has been a far bigger cause of the return of deficits than the Bush tax cuts. These cuts raised the deficit by about $30-$40 billion in both 2001 and 2002. You're right that this part of the tax cut was put in at the insistence of the Democrats.

Interesting, Baker did not include spending. I suspect that is becuase, 1.) other than national security, Baker would have wanted even more spending on social entitlements, and 2.) Bush hadn't really started spending that much money prior to 2003.

But ya got to find it very interesting that even Baker, at that moment, understood that by 2003, the tax cuts hadn't amounted to much in the big picture of surplus/deficit analysis.

And we all  agree, that following the full implementation of the Bush tax cuts in 2003, Federal tax revenues soared 44% thru 2007.

(;~> gary

Noel.. how about looking this way..

The whole issue grabs my attention, because the national MSM and the Democrats (one in the same) consistently harp on the simple spin of, "Clinton left Bush $5 Trillion in surpluses, and Bush blew them and turned it into massive deficits in 2 years." Well, until Time Mag. (as mentioned) suggested that Bush did it "in couple of months."

Federal tax revenue was growing at 9.02%, 6.14%, and 10.8% clip, in each of the 3 years up to and including 2000. Let's call that an average of 8.65% for ease of math, here.

Had the tax revenue continued to come in at that 8.65% rate thru 2003, the revenue for 2003 would have been $2.6 Trillion. Outlays for 2003 were $2.16 Trillion. We would have had a budget surplus of $438 billion in 2003, as opposed to a deficit of $378 billion. 

How's that work for you?

(;~> gary

I think you are both mostly right

Of course, as Gore never made into office, we will never really know, though I am not so sure Gore would have spent as much, or even more than GWB did, for the simple fact that he would have had to have gotten it through what would have been a right hostile congress.

Nor would we have had benefit of the tax cuts, either, which may have reduced revenue early on, but I believe paid dividends down the road.

Imagine what could have been had 9/11 never happened (or even if it did) and Bush had held government spending at, or better yet, below the rate of inflation, plus had implemented the tax cuts. But we don't live in that world.

Bush's largest mistake was the spending spree, which, aside from the budgetary issues, caused intangible damage to his party, which is still fresh in the minds of many.

Of course, public disgust with Obamanomics may well overcome that, but I don't think we are there yet.

-Dave

Dave.. yea.. but

I think I was trying to make that point, as well - on the both being mostly right - sort of.

But Noel (where ever he is?) said that if spending would have held at 3.75% then we'd been in surplus in 2005? I'm looking at 2003 and 2005. At 3.75% growth in outlays, the deficit would have been $223 billion in 2003, rather than $378 billion. In 2005, the deficit would have been $5 billion instead of $318 billion. OK, close enough to have a beer over. But at that level, one can blame the tax cuts for the deficit - and I'm not willing to do that. Certainly, there were numerous issues at play.

I'd still note that the revenue stream going backward from 2000 thru 2004, mostly because of the economic slowdown from the dot.com crash and from 9/11 is what caused the initial, and quite large, return to deficits from the surpluses.

And that is the political hit that the R's took. And they are still being blamed for it. Nuts, I say.

Gore? Naw - let's leave it at the fact that he'd been trying to spend much more than Bush could dream of  - that's what he ran on. 

(;~. gary

 

Gary

Gary,

Here's my point: irrespective of the tech bubble and the resulting loss of tax revenues, Bush could have had surpluses if he would have held the growth in spending to the rate of inflation. Yes, this wouldn't have happened until 2005. However, maybe we would have held Congress in 2006 if he had been more fiscally responsible, and maybe we wouldn't have lost the White House in 2008.  ns

Noel..

I don't think we're arguing about much. However, I'd suggest that you're arguing for the base - but, Bush didn't loose the base - he rattled the base (oh, they're a bit shaky but they're not voting for Pelosi, yet). He lost the middle.

But, here's my point. The national MSM media, Nancy Pelosi and dozens of other quacks, Time Mag. last week, Obama, Joe Biden, Hillary, Kerry, etc., all repeatedly said, in so many ways, that Bush inherited some $5 trillion in surpluses (they were projected on paper only) and that he turned them into deficits (often, they say massive deficits) in the course of only months to 2 years time. I do not think that there is much truth in that at all. They gained because of the bumper sticker mentality.

It is my view that had those repeated mis-statements been corrected, the public would be much more educated and would have only held Bush accountable for spending a bit (OK a sizable bit) too much (some of which the left actually supports - some the right supported).  And, they would understand how the economy works - instead of living by bumper sticker slogans. They'd also understand that the D's only want to spend more - and the evidence of that is everywhere today.

cheers.. gary (;~>  

  

LOL-Damn, y'all are talking numbers on a Friday night...

...as all I am seeing as of now is &$#%/*%*^&&*(!)*.

Thank you, Jose' Cuervo.  :-)

And Noel, I think you are dead on about the repubs holding congress in 2006 were it not for the hideous spending that was going on.

Not so sure about the White House, mainly due to the "Dolish" campaign on the part of McRino & Co., Sarah Palin notwithstanding.

-Dave

Hate to break it to you Dave

But it's Saturday, hope you got the lawn mowed?

 

My Gov. thinks I am dangerous, so be careful

"Television is a freak show" Bernie Goldberg

gc, LOL

Hell, I have been out of work for so long, I gave up keeping track of the days sometime ago.

Damn, that was embarrassing.  :-(

-Dave

Sorry to hear

About your employment. Seems that is all I do anymore. Currently at work, sitting on my fanny doing Operational shift work. Could not be more board. Least there is NB's and music.

 

My Gov. thinks I am dangerous, so be careful

"Television is a freak show" Bernie Goldberg

gc,

LOL-Wanna trade?

-Dave

Hhmm

Whatcha got?

 

My Gov. thinks I am dangerous, so be careful

"Television is a freak show" Bernie Goldberg

I just hope that when the depression kicks in in earnest...

...that I will encounter one of these economically illiterate, pro-Bama  propagandists in whatever soup line I wind up in.

If for no other reason, just so I can ask them, "So, how is that economic recovery thingy working out for you?"

Of course, that will happen only if the surrounding crowd hasn't strangled the life out of them first.

-Dave

Obama can do nothing wrong.

Obama can do nothing wrong.  Gasoline could rise to $9/gallon in 3 years and that would still be Bush's fault, not Obama's policies.

Re Do No Wrong

There are many liberals in Michigan that blame the state's collapse not on Governor Granholm, but on John Engler who was the governor more than six years ago. Never underestimate the liberals' ability to come up with excuses for the failure of their liberal policies.

These are great numbers!

Of course these are great numbers!  Do not question this good news.

 

http://www.george-orwell.org/1984/3.html

GDP decline

Minimum wage just went up, Cap'n Tax is about to become law, and some sort of ObamaCare will pass before Christmas. Even if the economy does try to revive, that won't last long.

Obama's budget projects have all been drawn up with ridiculous optimism about the economy. How convenient the MSM is helping him push that. This is all part of the plan to later apologize for "misreading" the data and announcing that he must reluctantly raise taxes on everyone.

 

Smoke and Mirrors

Don't forget Obama is putting off release of the latest budget update. 

" Obama modified that by suggesting the White House had "incomplete" information..."

"They blame the delay on the fact that this is a transition year between presidencies..."  LINK

Let us disappoint the Men who are raising themselves upon the ruin of this Country."-John Adams

tired of liberal

tired of liberal lies

Wait until next April when the "little people" file their tax returns and govenment revenues drop like a stone because so many have lost their jobs.  AP will be reporting the story as how the American people are getting relief from paying less taxes.

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