A consistent media meme since Election Day has been that Barack Obama was inheriting a recession that some believe began as far back as December 2007.
Since then, despite various rescue plans from his Administration, and the passage of a $787 billion stimulus package, the stock market has continued to plummet while employers shed payrolls in a fashion rarely seen in history.
This all raises an important question: will media ever blame current economic conditions on Obama, or will they continue to point fingers at George W. Bush despite his residence being in Texas?
Consider that as was reported by Bloomberg Friday, Obama now does indeed have his own bear market (image by Martin Kozlowski courtesy Wall Street Journal):
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 20 percent since Inauguration Day, the fastest drop under a new president in at least 90 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge has lost 53 percent from its October 2007 record of 14,164.53, slipping 4.1 percent to 6,594.44 yesterday.
More than $1.6 trillion has been erased from U.S. equities since Jan. 20 as mounting bank losses and rising unemployment convinced investors the recession is getting worse. The president is in danger of breaking a pattern in which the Dow rallied 9.8 percent on average in the 12 months after a Democrat captured the White House, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“People thought there would be a brief Obama rally, and that hasn’t happened,” said Uri Landesman, who oversees about $2.5 billion at ING Groep NV’s asset management unit in New York. “It speaks to the carnage that’s in the economy and the lack of confidence in the measures that have been announced.”
A bear market is defined as a decline of 20 percent or more. [...]
The Dow average has dropped 31 percent since Obama’s election. The 30-stock gauge trades at 8.04 times annual earnings, the cheapest since 1995 and down from 10.06 times on Inauguration Day.
Down 31 percent since Obama was elected. Isn't some of that because of him, or is it all Bush's fault?
The Hoover Institution's Michael Boskin thinks Obama's largely to blame:
It's hard not to see the continued sell-off on Wall Street and the growing fear on Main Street as a product, at least in part, of the realization that our new president's policies are designed to radically re-engineer the market-based U.S. economy, not just mitigate the recession and financial crisis.
The illusion that Barack Obama will lead from the economic center has quickly come to an end. Instead of combining the best policies of past Democratic presidents -- John Kennedy on taxes, Bill Clinton on welfare reform and a balanced budget, for instance -- President Obama is returning to Jimmy Carter's higher taxes and Mr. Clinton's draconian defense drawdown.
In reality, as the markets are typically a discounting mechanism -- meaning they are normally forecasting events in the future based on the present -- this collapse in stocks since Election Day has to be partially as a result of investors' concerns about what the new administration would do once in power.
However, just how much that is a factor is indeed debatable given the financial crisis which began in September.
BUT, as many professional investors and traders felt the market had made a high-volume, hear-fear, final capitulation low in October with a successful test of that level in November, there seems no question that came from the Office of the President-elect, and out of the White House since January 20, has not been viewed as good news for the future of the economy.
This is especially the case given the 20 percent decline in stocks since the inauguration.
Will Obama-loving media ever come to this conclusion, or will George W. Bush always get the blame for economic conditions regardless of what Obama and a Democrat-controlled Congress do?
Stay tuned.
—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters. Follow him at Facebook and Twitter.
Editor at Large
Comments Policy
"When Will Media Blame
March 6, 2009 - 10:49 ET by Smartypants"When Will Media Blame Economy and Bear Market on Obama?"
Probably about the same time that President Obama publicly declares that he is a "dittohead".
"The race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet."
Cramer
March 6, 2009 - 10:52 ET by SeashellJim Cramer (a democrat) certainly blames Obama.
Re Cramer
March 6, 2009 - 14:19 ET by slickwillie2001I will not cut Cramer an inch of slack. He was an Obammy booster all last year, and whatever mental defect that caused him to fall for The One is still there. How many voted for the Asshat because of what Cramer said on TV? He still says that Carbon cap and trade is a good idea. He is still all for most of Obammy's programs.
I experience some schadenfreude in listening to loons like Cramer and the old media liberals; they are mostly New Yorkers who are going to bear the brunt of Obammy's depredation on our nation. Unfortunately the rest of us will also suffer.
They will Noel
March 6, 2009 - 10:53 ET by shawn228Once his stimulus plan has been distributed and his plans firmly in place, people will have no choice but to blame this adminstration.
Also it does not make a huge difference regardless, but the stock market should be judged from his inauguration day, not the day he was elected.
He had my vote
Also it does not make a
March 6, 2009 - 11:05 ET by SeashellAlso it does not make a huge difference regardless, but the stock
market should be judged from his inauguration day, not the day he was
elected.
I get what your saying here, but remember we were told that Obama
could cure all ills. If this were true, there should have been
confidence among traders on Wall Street from the day Obama was
elected. There wasn't, and there still isn't especially with the
policies he is offering/enacting.
Ok, let's do that
March 6, 2009 - 11:12 ET by CobraMan"the stock market should be judged from his inauguration day"
Ok, let's do that.
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 20 percent since Inauguration Day"
That's not a very good indicator of Wall Street confidence in Obama and his policies, is it?
The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States.
The US Constitution
Unless you're a fetus.
The US Supreme Court
C'mon Shawn! The article
March 6, 2009 - 11:49 ET by Scuba DudeC'mon Shawn!
The article is judging him from his Inauguration. Read first then post!! And if necessary read again!
Your right Scoob
March 6, 2009 - 20:54 ET by shawn228The article is judging him from his inauguration, I was in a hurry to get to work this morning. Give me a break k? ;-)
He had my vote
NO BREAK FOR YOU!!!!
March 6, 2009 - 21:12 ET by Scuba DudeNO BREAK FOR YOU!!!! (in best soup nazi voice).
No posts 2 days!!
Yeah well...
March 6, 2009 - 21:15 ET by shawn228The Jerk store called and.....
He had my vote
Obama's ____ don't stink
March 6, 2009 - 10:57 ET by SeftonIn another context - use the Iraq situation.
The MSM will give him full credit for the stabilization of Iraq should they emerge without fallbacks to violence during his term - if it returns to chaos, it was always a failed Bush policy to begin with and inherited by The One.
The MSM never takes time to get off the knee pads and come up for air to report reality.
The market...
March 6, 2009 - 11:06 ET by Prester John....hates uncertainty.
And right now more and more people realize that BHO has no idea what he is or doing, or if he does he is deliberately working to destroy capitalism in this country, plus he can't even find people to help the Wunderkind Geithner save the economy.
Understaffed Geithner can't keep up, critics say
WASHINGTON -- For five weeks, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has battled the worst economic crisis in generations with no key deputies in place. That's made for a rocky debut for the man President Barack Obama put in charge of addressing the financial crisis.
Critics say part of the problem is that Geithner is flying solo: Not one of his top 17 deputies has been named, let alone confirmed. And without senior leadership, lower-level Treasury employees can't make decisions or represent the government in crucial conversations with banks and others.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/05/AR2009030501358_pf.html
So either 1) no one they've asked to serve have paid their taxes or 2) no one with a brain wants to be tied to this administration and what it is doing.
a fairy tale ending
March 6, 2009 - 11:13 ET by RackieWhen all the king's horses and all the king's men put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
"So either 1) no one
March 6, 2009 - 13:27 ET by R D Helm"So either 1) no one they've asked to serve have paid their taxes or
2) no one with a brain wants to be tied to this administration and what
it is doing."
I'll go with No. 2.
As for Timmy Turbo Tax, he appears to be every bit as clueless as Obama.
-Dave
This coup has gone on long enough. The time to put it down is NOW.
The usurper president has
March 6, 2009 - 11:14 ET by rbosqueThe usurper president has only been in office a few weeks and we're already going down the crapper. Let us not forget that it was the Democrats and their friends in the media that have been talking down the economy for the last three+ years and it was they that screwed us by using Fannie & Freddie as personal political piggy-banks. Not to mention the attempted destruction of our economy in September right before the election.
None of this is by accident. This has all been planned by the DNC.
Robert Reich piece: "Crash ain't Obama's Fault"
March 6, 2009 - 11:27 ET by krendlerReich uses terms like
"...the Wall Street and Republican media attack machine... "
Yeah, circle the wagons there, Robbie, along with your buds Carville and Begala.
Here's the article:
Is Obama responsible for Wall Street's meltdown?
It's an absurd argument, but that's where populist rage on the right is heading.
By Robert Reich....
http://www.salon.com...
Here's an Irony
March 6, 2009 - 11:34 ET by mbs6My brother-in-law has a copy of Adam Smith's, "The Wealth of Nations" and I noticed that the foreward was written by... Robert Reich. I immediately thought it was ridiculous to have a socialist writing the foreward to a book he clearly doesn't understand. What was the idiot publisher thinking?
Top of the Hour News Yesterday
March 6, 2009 - 11:29 ET by mbs6I unfortunately caught the top of the hour news on ABC radio yesterday. It went something like this:
<Cheesy "newsy" music playing>
"Duh, duh, da, duh... From ABC News, I'm Sherry Preston. The DOW is down again today and nothing seems to be able to stop this free fall. For more on that ABC's Joe Blow...
<Cut to Joe Blow, where in between elaborating he gets in as many mentions of the names Sherry and Joe as possible. Then cut back to Sherry.>
And in other news, Obama announced today he's got just the presciption to cure the nation's ailing healthcare system. Blah, blah, blah."
The real irony in all that was that they failed to connect Obambi's socialist plans with the destruction of American wealth. Everytime he has signed a bill or announced a new facet of socialism, the market has tanked on the day. Unlike Obambi, investors actually understand how wealth is created and, in this case, destroyed.
Doesn't that just make your
March 6, 2009 - 11:38 ET by MrDavisonDoesn't that just make your blood boil? There is a complete unwillingness for the MSM to connect Obama to this total annihilation of wealth.
It's going to take a long time
March 6, 2009 - 11:43 ET by c5thenSimilar to the crash of '29 and the depression that followed. It is now, over 70 years later, becoming more understood that the crash and depression were not the fault of Herbert Hoover and the depression was made much worse and lengthened by the actions of FDR.
Hey, I got the wrong "CHANGE"!
www.loyaltoliberty.com
IF
March 6, 2009 - 11:47 ET by jdlybrandIf Ronald Reagan was the Teflon President, Obama has got to be the KY Jelly King.
"Slip slidin' away"
Quite honestly...never.
March 6, 2009 - 11:51 ET byAt least for the next 4 years, the blame will be on Dubya's lack of oversight and the GOP's obstruction to any and all of the current Admin's policies and plans. After getting re-elected in 2012, Obama will begin to receive the heat IF the economy does not show signs of improvement for the MIDDLE CLASS. JMHO...
Odd Job
Odd Blob, What? No
March 6, 2009 - 11:57 ET by Scuba DudeOdd Blob,
What? No mention of the obstructionist democrats during Pres Bush's term in office? No mention of how the thieves Franks, Dodds and Waters prevented FNMA and FHLMC from receiving any oversight and regulation? How Franks came out and said FNMA was in great shape only to have the Govt have to take it over a few months later? Why no mention of them?
C'mon, you need to work those 2 neurons you have if you ever want to put forth an intelligent post.
braindead
March 6, 2009 - 12:03 ET by RagamuffinThis post is brain-dead.
If the economy was so easy for a President to fix in so short a time why didn't Bush do it in say, October 2008? Between then and January 20th he should have had plenty of time to "fix it" so well a 20% drop since Obama took over wouldn't even be a big deal.
Oh wait, I'm actually thinking. The spin doctor's need to do a better job around here.
"When will media blame the economy..."
March 6, 2009 - 13:54 ET by PrairieSky"and the Bear Market on Obama?"
About the same time that Hell freezes over...
President Bush was blamed for absolutely everything, rightly or wrongly, while he was in office, and it is already clear that the MSM and the liberals will continue to blame him now that he's left office. Obama, on the other hand, will get no blame from the MSM for anything that he does or doesn't do. Is the bad economy entirely Obama's fault? No, of course not...It was a mess before he was sworn in and there is a lot of blame to go around on this one...All the brilliant geniuses in the financial community and in the government either didn't see this mess coming, or did see it coming and did and said nothing. But...The difference is that as far as Obama is concerned, the MSM will never hold his feet to the fire for any mistakes he makes concerning the economy. He is the president now, and the minute he signed that pork-laden stimulus bill, he owned this economy. The decisions that he has made concerning the economy, have IMHO, been disastrous, and will do nothing to help,and in fact have and will likely continue to add to the mess that we are in.
"...peace is the highest aspiration of the American People. We will negotiate for it, sacrifice for it, we will never surrender for it, now or ever." President Ronald Reagan~ January 20, 1981
Media Will Never Blame Obama
March 6, 2009 - 12:27 ET by deerjerkydaveThe propagandist media will never blame Obama. However, Americans are notorious for their impatience. I give the public 6 to 9 months before they realize that Obama has no clue what he is doing.
Remember that Bush got the country out of the dot com recession in 6 months time. If Obama can't do the same (which it seems clear that he won't) then the public will get angry mighty fast.
"...the realization that
March 6, 2009 - 13:24 ET by R D Helm"...the realization that our new president's policies are designed to radically re-engineer the market-based U.S. economy."
Radically re-engineer? More like utterly destroy the market-based U.S. economy.
-Dave
This coup has gone on long enough. The time to put it down is NOW.
Here's the Month by Month Breakdown
March 6, 2009 - 13:24 ET by Insane Chipmunkpercentage of gain/loss since opening of prior month (April uses MTD March)
note the bold negatives when thinking about a) when Obama was sure to win the Dem Nomination (officially happened in late August) and b) when he took a lead over McCain in the polls beyond the margin of error and never let go (October)
ya know, actually the last decent monthly gain in the market was when Hillary was starting to make a comeback in the primaries.
November 2007 - 0.2%
December 2007 - -4.0%
January 2008 - -0.8%
February 2008 - -4.7%
March 2008 - -3.0%
April 2008 - 0.0%
May 2008 - 4.5%
June 2008 - -1.4%
July 2008 - -10.2%
August 2008 - 0.3%
September 2008 - 1.5%
October 2008 - -6.0%
November 2008 - -14.0%
December 2008 - -5.4%
January 2009 - -0.6%
February 2009 - -8.8%
March 2009 - -11.8%
April 2009 - -6.5%
An interesting case I've
March 6, 2009 - 13:39 ET by IcarusAn interesting case I've heard made is that President Obama and other Democrats don't really care about a bear market because the policies they are implementing they feel are right and good in the long run, even though investors and speculators don't like them now. For example, speculators wouldn't like more government regulation of derivatives trading, so they would react negatively to that.
A Wall Street market rally certainly would be something Obama could brag about if it were happening, but he wouldn't be able to brag about it that much because rallies and falls are more superficial than you might expect. Candidate Obama had success labeling John McCain's proposed gas-tax holiday economically superficial during the campaign, and he could do it with the market flucuations as well.
The flat tire scenario.
March 6, 2009 - 13:41 ET by OhmingI got a nail in my tire and thus a flat. The nail probobly got there from the carpenters truck, that helped build a home up the road 18 months ago. The nail got buried in the gravel and resufaced when the grader came by last week. The sheriffs car went up the road to investige a pot growing operation and threw the nail out in the middle of the road where my rotating tire was impaled. The tire store repaired the tire and I am back on the road again.
So as you can see, Bush's policies of expanding the economy and cracking down on illegal drugs has resulted in my personal misfortune and left a legacy of minimum wage jobs (like the tire sore guy). It will always be Bushs' fault; drink the Koolaid people.
The economy can bounce
March 6, 2009 - 20:10 ET by RR GOPThe economy can bounce back...once these bozos are out.
But, the damage to our Liberty and basic national structure may be damaged beyond repair, and in the not-too-distant future.
The scariest scenario I can envision is that these guys are playing for keeps and aren't going anywhere...
One of the 24% who thinks George W. Bush was a great President. One of the 89% who wants to bring back the stock and pillory.