The Gross Domestic Product declined by 3.8 percent in the final quarter of 2008.
It was bad, but nowhere near as bad as expected.
Is it possible that all the hysterical gloom and doom emanating from the media is way overdone, and that things are not close to as apocalyptic as we've been told the past five months?
Consider the actual numbers reported Friday morning by MarketWatch:
The U.S. economy contracted at a 3.8% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. This is the largest contraction since the first quarter of 1982. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting a negative 5.5% growth rate in the fourth quarter.
For the year, GDP rose 1.3 percent which was its worst performance since 2001. Is this the end of the world we've been hearing about since September?
After all, this 3.8 percent decline is only the 13th worst since the Commerce Department began doing quarterly reports in 1947. This means that there's been twelve worse quarters since 1946, and none of them signalled the end of the world nor required the kind of government spending now being discussed in Washington.
For instance, GDP declined by an astounding 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 1982. This followed a 4.9 percent drop in the fourth quarter of 1981. History now shows this to be the worst of that decade's recession, as the economy exploded in 1983 beginning one of its most powerful and long-lasting expansions ever.
A similar situation occurred in 1974 when the third quarter GDP declined by 3.8 percent followed by a 1.6 percent drop in the fourth quarter and a 4.7 percent drop in the first quarter of 1975. Yet, once again, the world didn't come to an end for the following quarters showed growths of 3.0, 6.9, 5.4, and an amazing 9.3 percent.
As such, there have been two recessions in the previous three decades when we experienced far worse economic growth than this most recent quarter without it indicating a depression and without the need for historic increases in deficit spending to get the economy going again.
Is it therefore possible all this doom and gloom is way overstated?
To be sure, the fourth quarter of 2008 might not be the worst of this recession. Nobody knows. However, isn't it just as possible that this will be the low point?
Isn't it also possible that Obama-loving media are hyping the hysteria because they want his stimulus package to be passed?
After all, it was indeed the economic gloom and doom that began in September which basically handed this election to Obama as McCain-Palin had briefly taken a lead in the polls after the Republican National Convention and just before Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy on September 15.
The press accomplished a similar feat in 1992 when they aided and abetted presidential candidate Bill Clinton's false depictions of a poor economy despite the recession having ended in the second quarter of 1991.
Now, with their man back in the White House, given the economic number just released, isn't it possible they're playing the same game of overhyping the gloom in order to further their agenda?
As always, we will know in the fullness of time.
—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters. Follow him at Facebook and Twitter.
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Have media over-hyped "depression"?
January 30, 2009 - 11:38 ET by Jarhead68DUH!!!! The media pushed 'recession' for a full year before it actually happened. I tell gays who want marriage the same thing I'd tell the idiots in the media:
"Be careful what you wish for."
Bad Noel!
January 30, 2009 - 11:47 ET by BlondeObama has succeeded in turning the ship around, silly.
Sheesh!
The collusion between the
January 30, 2009 - 11:53 ET by rbosqueThe collusion between the MSM and the Dems is quite evident. This "recession/depression" is designed for one thing, to further the march toward a socialist state. The people who voted these Democrats in are fools.
I got a kick out of
January 30, 2009 - 11:57 ET by bigtimerI got a kick out of watching some of the talking heads on the business channels showing their disappointment that the number wasn't what was projected...dang it all, how dare it come in lower.
Nope, as hard as some tried to hide it, you could see the biased disappointment.
Typical.
Obama the savior...
January 30, 2009 - 11:57 ET by Doc_NavyI would assume that to the media.. overhyping the situation is good for them and by extention the Obama administration. Once things return to normal, as they eventually will, all the credit for fixing "8 years of failed economic policies" can then be heaped upon Obama.
Doc
2008: The year that the great LIE died.
How we know that they know that they are Lying.
Friedrich Nietzsche summed up how I feel about the MSM in this quote:
"I'm not upset that you lied to me, I'm upset that from now on I can't believe you."
As I said somewheres else
January 30, 2009 - 11:58 ET by R D HelmAs I said somewheres else around here earlier, I am starting to see evidence that our economy is not in as bad a shape as we have been led to believe.
I think the government (and the media) have both been lying to us.
The governmnet has because it wishes to do as all governments have throughout history, and that is to increase its power.
The media has because they are either trying to aid the government in increasing its power, or they are too stoopid to know better.
-Dave
Our clueless political leaders are about to drive us all over a cliff. The time to HITM is now-before we go over.
Dave
January 30, 2009 - 12:21 ET by choselife3xI'll go with....BOTH.
In order to be pro-choice, one must first be born. Ah, the irony.
chose,
January 30, 2009 - 12:29 ET by R D HelmLOL-Yeah, I should have added "or some combination thereof."
Hey, its Friday. I am planning my Super Bowl menu.
Thinking about brats & beer.
Lots of beer. :-)
-Dave
Our clueless political leaders are about to drive us all over a cliff. The time to HITM is now-before we go over.
Dave, I'm always
January 30, 2009 - 13:47 ET by Chris NormanDave,
I'm always suspicious of the motives of the media in reporting anything they do, but if you worked in the wholesale/retail sector like I do, you'd know it's pretty bad right now - and has been for almost a year. Our wholesale customers (the retailers) tell us they just don't plan on buying much stock this year. They're scared they won't be able to sell it and/or they can't get the credit to purchase a season's worth of stock. Our internet sales are holding up better, because as people are unable to find items in the stores, they're purchasing off the internet. There seems to be a demand for goods by the end-use customers in some quarters - just less places willing to supply it.
The "Mainstream" Media: By liberals. For liberals.
SShhhh!
January 30, 2009 - 11:59 ET by slickwillie2001Just a minute here, I thought we were in a depression as bad as the one in the 1930s'? I thought that Obama had to come up with solutions as radical as the fascist-lite hero Roosevelt? I thought we needed a NEW New Deal?
The Republican position should be to do as little as possible and wait out what will likely be a typical 6-12 month recession.
Typical anti-capitalist rhetoric from the far-left...
January 30, 2009 - 12:04 ET by AshleeWhile I do have to admit I am much more centrist, almost left-leaning on *some* social issues (abortion aside) I do have to say nothing annoys me further than a far-left individual getting on their soap box and talking about the evils of capitalism and how bad the parts of the world functioning with a capitalist model are doing. The far left would love you to believe that the economy is somehow going to just die out if we don't immediately allow our government to appropriate all businesses and create a Communist State where Daddy Government gives and takes as he wishes.
This is utter BS, and the sad part is, the left leaning fiscal centrists buy into it either due to lack of economic understanding, or just out of the very real fear we all have regarding our own assets. Let's make one thing clear which I believe most here know already, the economy isn't going to simply 'die.' Companies who have cooked books and overspent will rightly fall under the tide of their own poor management, and yes, sadly, many below them will lose jobs. However, the money and market itself does not simply 'disappear.' New companies will emerge, and eventually the market will stabalize and continue to recoup back to normal after some time.
The BS the far left parts of the media and even some left leaning media outlets which claim such outlandish things as a potential 10% decline in GDP is a combination of desire to incite a stronger following of their own political and fiscal ideologies within the fence sitters, but also because as we all know, sensationalism sells. If someone gets into a car wreck but is totally fine, it may get some coverage, but not as much as if the accident were fatal. Obviously there are other reasons for this, but the media has one thing correct, people love drama. Hence why I believe such outlets as CNN and MSNBC have a penchant for painting a situation as much darker than it truely is, especially if its in regards to *ahem* *whisper* ....republicans....
After all, the 'R' word is considered a curse in many news outlets. I've enough moderate and conservative friends who work in news an journalism to know that.
The people should not fear their Government,
The Government should fear the people.
Rush is rip-roaring
January 30, 2009 - 12:23 ET by bigtimerRush is rip-roaring mad...he just tore Ali Velshi from CNN a new arse regarding the GDP numbers and him calling Rush a liar on Campbell Brown's program last night regarding these numbers.
You had to have heard all of this...maybe ns or somebody will have something about this all later....talk about delicious!
I'm LMAO and going Yeah Rush...go get them...all of them.
He is PO!
The media has an INVESTMENT
January 30, 2009 - 12:27 ET by gopcongressThe media has an INVESTMENT into the economic failure of the United States, as this will allow them to make policy with their puppets, the Democratic / Socialist minions in Congress. The one thing the Democratic Party fears most is an economy that is allowed to fix itself.
of Course, it's Over-Hyped
January 30, 2009 - 12:52 ET by BW222If the media doesn't over-hype the problem, how can it make Zero look good, even if he fails? Stupid question. They would find a way.
BW222
Noel, you forget -- the
January 30, 2009 - 12:56 ET by ThisnThatNoel, you forget -- the years 1974 and 1982 don't exist anywhere in History. Dim history. That way, they can specify the size and magnitude of any situation -- to suit their needs.
___________________________________
The challenge is to follow a consistent plan despite inconsistent prices - Sarah Palin, State of the State of Alaska speech
TnT... It is maddening
January 30, 2009 - 14:07 ET by bigtimerTnT...
It is maddening that the msm acts as if all of us that lived through the years you and a few others have mentioned are somehow poof from civilization now....why we're just dead or they are hoping we're all just plain brain-dead like their leftist lemming followers are.
Nope those years and trying times never matter whatsoever.
History is when they say it is...depending on their agenda.
Recession
January 31, 2009 - 01:03 ET by nkviking75Maybe I'm confused, but by the traditional definition, don't we need two consecutive down quarters to have a recession? And doesn't this report make one in a row? Don't get me wrong, I know things are rough out there. Still, I think the MSM and the Dems teamed up to flog the public with the idea of the recession for at least a year, and I think the result is at least partially a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Of course, if Obama and Congress get their way, recession is a lead pipe cinch.
When you put the clowns in charge, don't be surprised when a circus breaks out.