BDS Media Meme Destroyed: Weak Dollar Doesn't Mean Higher Oil

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As oil and gasoline prices rose throughout much of this decade, a popular media meme was that a lower dollar was largely to blame.

By making this dubious connection, press outlets could point fingers at Bush economic policies thereby distracting the public from the reality that decades of liberal environmental constraints on oil exploration and refinery construction led to an inevitable and undesirable supply-demand squeeze culminating in the commodity futures bubble that peaked in July.

Yet, since early November, oil and the dollar have both been plummeting thereby destroying the press assertion that as one goes down, the other goes up (charts courtesy TradingCharts.com):

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As can be seen by the above charts, through Thursday's close, oil is down almost 50 percent since Election Day, while the dollar is down about ten percent.

If a declining dollar causes oil prices to rise, how could a ten percent drop in the former lead to a 50 percent drop in the latter?

I'd love to hear Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman's answer to that!

In the end, there were a number of factors that created the energy/commodity futures bubble this decade including of course supply and demand. Yet, maybe even more important was the extraordinary leverage involved in futures contracts AND speculation.

Compare the following oil chart...

...to this NASDAQ chart (courtesy BigCharts.com):

 

See any similarity?

As NewsBusters readers are aware, I have been stating for several years that oil was a bubble waiting to burst, and that commodities firms along with a Bush-hating media continually pumped air into the balloon by over-emphasizing the increasing demand from China as well as a plummeting dollar. 

As the past two months demonstrate, there is no definitive causal relationship between a declining dollar and rising oil prices. In fact, as I have argued before the greater likelihood is that it was rising oil prices during this bubble that forced down the dollar as traders from all over the world shorted the U.S. currency to fund purchases of crude.

As the bubble burst in July, traders that were long oil and short dollars needed to liquidate both positions causing oil to plummet and the dollar to rally. As those reciprocal positions have now largely been unwound, oil and the dollar appear to now be trading on their own fundamentals whereby the former is declining due to obvious reductions in international demand as a result of the recession, and the latter is dropping as our interest rates declined to virtually the lowest of any industrialized nation on the planet.

With this action, the media meme that it was Bush economic policies and a weak dollar that forced oil prices higher has finally been debunked. 

In the coming years with a new president in the White House it's going to be fascinating to watch how many other Bush Derangement Syndrome media memes similarly explode with little fanfare from press members that either ignorantly or disingenuously espoused and disseminated them.

I can't wait to help expose them!

—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters. Follow him at Facebook and Twitter.


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And here I thought

...oil prices were skyrocketing because China and India were buying our oil!

Turns out that old fashioned greed is the most likely culprit, and the greedy, oily b_astards have killed to goose that lays the golden eggs by helping to cripple the US economy, along with the greedy real estate agents who were selling real estate based on the monthly payment buyers could qualify for, thereby taking advantage of low interest rates in order to skyrocket real estate values.

oil

Given this opportunity, we should be increasing our oil production, to help keep the price low and offset any OPEC production cut backs.  The price would stabilize/decrease and give greater encouragement to the markets for a recovery.  It will help offset the upcoming inflationary pressures due to the runaway creation of money and it will provide countries like Iran and Venezulea and Russia with less money to be adventurous in foreign affairs. I would go as far a suggesting a production subsidy for domestic producers.  The "greens", of course would be against all of this while Detroit crumbles.

opportunity

well, toyota's been making the prius for how many years .. honda has it's own (poorly recieved) hybrid .. and yet, the pig three can't git it all in one sock for several more years to have any vehicles which would be anything close to the prius .. why is that ?? why couldn't bush's bailout include a kick in the butt to the unions which have made piggy cars so non-competetive ??

never look a gift skunk in the tail

It isn't a dubious claim to

It isn't a dubious claim to state that as the dollar weakens against other currencies across the planet that oil will go up in price.  Notwithstanding the goofy proclamations of the left,  as the dollar declines in value, so does the price of oil in non-dollar terms.  Consequently, foreigners bid up the price of oil and other dollar-denominated commodities.  The result is that the price of crude oil and other commodities rise in dollar terms as the dollar falls in value against other currencies. 

The dollar has been on a multi-year down trend since it double topped over mid 2001 and the begining of 2002.  It bottomed in mid-July of this year and reached in intra year peak in late November.  It has since fallen back to its 200 day moving average. 

Oil has been in a multi-year up trend since about the same time the dollar started its slide, the beginning of 2002.  It peaked at about the same time that the dollar started its rise, mid-July of this year.  While the dollar has fallen back from it high in late November, oil countinues its down trend.  

While the left is wrong in reaching a conclusion regarding the relationship between the dollar and oil and moreover commodities in general, so are you.  And, your second chart is that of the Nasdaq stock market index not of the U.S. dollar.  

There is a terrific book that details the relationships between the equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and interest rates.  It is by John Murphy and it is called Intermarket Analysis: Profiting from Global Market Relationships (about $45 used on Amazon).  

 

 

jd

jd,

"Notwithstanding the goofy proclamations of the left,  as the dollar declines in value, so does the price of oil in non-dollar terms.  Consequently, foreigners bid up the price of oil and other dollar-denominated commodities."

This would only be true if the actual price of the good in question was less after the resulting moves in the currency and the commodity than before. This is not the case.

For instance, in November 2001, when oil was $20/bbl, it cost roughly 22 euros. When oil peaked at $147/bbl in July, it cost 92 euros. Think that 318 percent price increase in less than seven years was encouraging Europeans to buy MORE oil?

The bottom line is that oil in dollars increased by 635 percent during this period, while the euro rose by about 75 percent. That's a correlation coefficient or beta of .12. As such, despite the rising euro, the real cost of oil and gas in Europe exploded just like they did here, but by not as much. Make sense?  ns 

Sorry Noel, I hate to

Sorry Noel, I hate to disagree with you on this but JD is correct in my opinion.  The relationship between the dollar, oil and other currencies are not proportional in the way you presented the subject, especially the 635% part.  Other factors are at play to change that proportionality such as the supply-demand balance with the dollar versus the supply-demand balance with oil.  Currently, the demand is pretty high on the dollar as evidenced by the Treasury being able to sell bonds for near zero percent interest.  there is a definite supply imbalance going on with the dollar for the current moment, just as there is a definite supply imbalance with oil.  

I suggest your focus is misplaced on the wrong issue regarding the price of oil.  If you noticed that coincidentally prior to the elections of 2006 and 2008, the price of oil was spiking, I maintain there was manipulation in the oil markets to influence the elections to the Democrat's advantage.  As a result the dollar fell in value against the Euro.  Now that the world economy has been slammed, the demand for oil has dropped like a stone and thus oil fell in value like one.  Pay attention Russia, Iran and Venezuela are demanding cuts in oil production to prop up the price of oil.  Once they get their wish on cutting production, the price of oil will go up and you will see that relationship with the dollar come back.  The combination of the idiots in Congress sucking up (borrowing) all the world's private investment capital to finance their make work programs and the short supply of oil forcing up the price of oil will then crush the world's economies in a fatal One Two punch will give them their DEPRESSION.

Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.

This pretty much sums up

This pretty much sums up what I'm talking about: 

<i>The greatest danger is a run on the dollar, as Paul Volcker, the former Fed chairman, has predicted. The U.S. might face a debt crisis and a currency crisis next year. A dollar crisis could wreak havoc with Washington’s stimulus plans. </i>

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=29997  

 

Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.

Dan

Dan,

"If you noticed that coincidentally prior to the elections of 2006 and 2008, the price of oil was spiking, I maintain there was manipulation in the oil markets to influence the elections to the Democrat's advantage."

As it was Saturday evening when you wrote this, should I assume alcohol was clouding your vision my good friend? :-)

On October 3, 2008, oil was at $101.25. It closed the day before Election Day at $64.59 down almost $37 in a month. Is that what you call spiking?

In 2006, oil began the month of September at $70.30. It was $58.60 at the beginning of November. Is this also what you consider spiking?

Your serve, my friend.  :-)  ns

Returning your volley: The

Returning your volley:

The spike occurred prior to the election as you noted and then declined by election day.  However, most people made their decisions in September per FNC's data using this last election as a guide.  The point (pun intended) taken should be the public was prepped to believe high fuel prices were the fault of the current administration and when prices fell, it was discounted as a conspiracy floated by the MSM.  You do remember the lib meme that the oil companies were trying to lower prices for Bush's sake?

http://tonto.eia.doe...

Notice also the run up in 1992 propelling Clinton into office?  Small in dollar terms but large in percentage terms.   "It's the economy stupid" we all know the president gets the blame for a bad economy and high fuel prices...even when he has little to do with it and especially when Congress meddles in the economy.  The price of oil has a major effect on the economy as it diverts a disproportionate amount of capital flow from other sectors of the economy.

Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.

And now for the next trick

And now for the next trick we have the printing of money, a vast oversupply of dollars. Once foreign investors realize it is no longer the haven of safety to maintain the value of their holdings, they will dump dollars for the Euro and Yen, watch the dollar fall and then as a consequence the price of oil will go up.  Remember now, Iran and Venezuela have denominated the bulk of their oil in Euros not Dollars.  Most of the other oil producers hedged their oil sales in a combination of Euros and Dollars. Who has a vested interest in clobbering the dollar????  George Soros, Hugo Chavez and the Adjamadinajad (mad hatter of Iran).

Weeee, you'll have an exciting ride, I hope you have a strong stomach.

Adjusted Monetary Base http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf 

MZM http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page5.pdf 

Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.

Noel, the truth is easy

Noel, the truth is easy enough.  Please show us two graphs, diplacing the present two graphs.  The first graph should depict the price of oil from 2001 until the present.  The second graph should depict the US dollar for the same time frame. 

Once shown, I am confident that your readers will decide who is correct.

If you need a source for the graphs, just let me know and I will be happy to furnish them to you.  

By the way, I am still not clear why you threw up a graph of the NASDAQ, the small cap index of  our stock market, instead of a graph of our currency. Please explain?

 

jd

jd,

Graphs of oil and dollar are there, but the links needed replacing. 

The NASDAQ chart was included to demonstrate the similarity between the tech stock bubble/burst to the oil bubble/burst.

This runup in oil was largely a speculative bubble much like what happened in NASDAQ in the late '90s. That the dollar was declining at the same time oil was rising is a mere coincidence, but made for great BDS fodder. In fact, though it goes counter to the conventional wisdom, oil's meteoric rise pushed the dollar down, not vice versa. ns

Hate to break it to ALL

the Toyota Prius fans BUT

TOYOTA JUST CLOSED IT'S PRIUS AUTOMOTIVE PLANT!

So much for the great, everyone wants one, prius????

 

Delsa

Delsa,

It's just another Karl Rovian plot to damage the environment!  ;-)

 

"Gov. Palin has been subjected to one of the most massive and dishonest pile-on smear attacks in the history of liberal media."  -- Lowell Ponte

spot on

there's a spot on your facts, delsa .. toyota is simply delaying finishng building a NEW plant in tupelo, miss. due to the national economy and also due to the reduction in gas prices .. back during the summer, priuses were selling for $5-8k over sticker price .. yep, definitely a secret subversive neocon plot to elect obambi ..

never look a gift skunk in the tail

→ Nathan

Go visit your local Toyota dealer.

If It's like mine, for a town of 100,000 people, ten used Prius' on the lot is a bunch.

Tons of them got traded in when the oil boom busted. 

  • LYDSEXICS UNTIE!

east tennessee john

I agree with you 100%

Your comments here are spot on!