A consistent media meme for all of 2008 was that this was the year of the Democrats inasmuch as party identification in poll after poll had shown greater percentages of folks leaning left than right.
Not so fast!
The success of the recently-concluded Republican National Convention has so changed this calculus that a new Gallup poll revealed folks leaning towards Republicans and Democrats is now almost equal.
It should be interesting to see how much coverage this report from Gallup gets (emphasis added):
The percentage of Americans identifying themselves as Republicans has increased from 26% immediately before last week's Republican National Convention began to 30% immediately after it. That increase, combined with a slight 2-point drop in Democratic identification from 37% to 35%, has reduced the Democrats' formidable advantage in national party identification from 11 points to 5.
Democrats have held a large advantage on party identification for much of 2007 and 2008. But the GOP convention -- and the exposure it gave to John McCain and Sarah Palin as the Republican ticket -- has encouraged a greater number of Americans to identify as Republicans, thus narrowing the Democratic advantage for the moment.
Republicans saw an even larger increase in "leaned" party identification, which is computed by adding the percentage of Americans who initially identify themselves as independents but then say they "lean" to a party to the percentage who identify with that party. Before the GOP convention, 39% of Americans said they identified with or leaned to the Republican Party, but that number has increased to 47%. Forty-eight percent now identify with or lean to the Democratic Party, down from 53% prior to the GOP convention.
Fascinating. 47-48?
I got your year of the Democrats right here </Brooklyn accent>.
As a post facto aside, one must wonder how much this shift is being caused by female Independents identifying with Palin. Stay tuned.
—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters.
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Comments Policy
That's big news
September 11, 2008 - 14:58 ET by Adam_MEIf you look closely at a lot of the polls, they sample more Democrats than Republicans, sometimes by huge margins. Yet McCain is still tied or ahead of Obama in a lot of swing states.
If turnout is relatively close for the Dems and GOP voters, McCain will win this in a walk. Especially if something like the Bradley effect comes into play.
Will polling groups now
September 11, 2008 - 14:59 ET by MrSnugglesWill polling groups now even out the sample rates by party ID now? Awww, who am I kidding?
Palin Power! "America
September 11, 2008 - 15:01 ET by bigtimerPalin Power!
"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh
another choice
September 11, 2008 - 15:02 ET by usualsuspectIn summation McCain's OK I guess and as a Navy pointed out to this old Air Force what happens if an international crisis envelops a personal crisis for Gov. Palin if God forbid she must take over even if it is only temporary? She is a strong lady still a woman. I'm writing in Rep. Ron Paul and Governor Jesse Ventura.
She do as all President do in a similar situation
September 11, 2008 - 15:17 ET by CobraMan"what happens if an international crisis envelops a personal crisis for Gov. Palin if God forbid she must take over even if it is only temporary"
She’ll do as all Presidents do in a similar situation when an international crisis occures. She'll gather up all her advisors, she'll request additional information from intelligence agencies like the CIA and the NRO, she’ll listen to the advice of the department heads, like the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of State, and she'll make the decision that she feels is the best. How is that any different from what McCain, or any other President for that matter, would do?
Obama: My job is above my pay grade
Palin v.s. Ventura
September 11, 2008 - 15:23 ET by usualsuspectI believe you may be correct CobraMan. Maybe I just wanna see Jesse break a tie vote or something, eh?
only when shoved
It would be interesting
September 11, 2008 - 15:54 ET by CobraManIt would be interesting to see Jessie threaten to lock Congress in with his flatulent dog until they settled their differences and passed all those pending bills, just like he did to our state legislature.
Obama: My job is above my pay grade
us....She is a strong
September 11, 2008 - 15:29 ET by bigtimerus....
She is a strong lady still a woman.
What the hell is that supposed to mean...what damned difference does that have to do with anything usualsuspect...huh?
Bet she wouldn't do what Clinton did which was nothing, because his tail has always been between his legs and which way the political winds blew that got us into this mess in the first place...then playing the I have to do everything via the criminal justice system...along with the wall Gorelick built at the Dynamic duo's instructions...
You wanna' bet she wouldn't play that game... not for one second would that gal do that...she's got more moxie and guts in her little tip of her fingernail than Bill Clinton had in his worst nightmare.
...and by the way...Jesse Ventura....
You tell me all I need to know about your brain-waves...
Thanks for the comedy, and the sexism pal.
"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh
lighten up bigtimer
September 11, 2008 - 15:37 ET by usualsuspectditto.
only when shoved
us... Lighten up...why
September 11, 2008 - 15:40 ET by bigtimerus...
Lighten up...why should I?
You didn't answer my question...what do you mean by stating she's still a woman...huh?
"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh
ask your mother bigtimer
September 11, 2008 - 15:43 ET by usualsuspectWomen are different from men- ask your mother bigtimer.
only when shoved
us... No shite
September 11, 2008 - 15:50 ET by bigtimerus...
No shite Sherlock...
You still avoided my question, what does her being a woman have anything to do with her being able to keep this country safe?
Quit avoiding the question, you made the statement, now please answer me the simple question I asked.
"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh
Oooooh, BT
September 11, 2008 - 15:55 ET by BlondeYet ANOTHER one week wonder.
Big surprise.
It's going to get alot worse before November.
Sheesh!
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
hi Blonde!
September 11, 2008 - 15:57 ET by usualsuspectwhere i been? busy...
only when shoved
Glad you "been busy"
September 11, 2008 - 15:59 ET by BlondeCuz you gonna be gone, shortly.
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
ghost me lady
September 11, 2008 - 16:02 ET by usualsuspecti see you must have been elevated to staff in my absence because only they can ghost me lady. sincerely, usualsuspect formerly carpareus
only when shoved
Ooooh....I remember you little troll.
September 11, 2008 - 16:04 ET by BlondeGhost, baby.
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
you missed it bigtimer
September 11, 2008 - 15:56 ET by usualsuspectscroll up aways and see my response to CobraMan you friggin' loonietune. now shut the frig up because with all due respect you are beginning to boar the shiite out of everyone here you dumb ass.
only when shoved
us... Look you one week
September 11, 2008 - 16:02 ET by bigtimerus...
Look you one week wonder...if you think you are going to last two weeks with your BS already...you would be wrong, it isn't like you are so obvious already, don't they teach you trolls how to hide yourselves any better.
I asked you a simple question, you have refused to answer it...than you answer with the intelligence of a four month old...and that is giving you three months too many.
Troll on...while you can.
"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh
teaching egg sucking
September 11, 2008 - 16:04 ET by usualsuspectstart making sense you egg sucker
only when shoved
us... You weren't hard to
September 11, 2008 - 16:12 ET by bigtimerus...
You weren't hard to spot out right off...and you knew I did.
Haven't missed you either.
Won't when you exit once again.
"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh
Feh.
September 11, 2008 - 16:20 ET by Foolican</i> Ron Paulistas at their finest.
Reminder: Usualsuspect
September 11, 2008 - 15:47 ET by Mica the MagnificentRon Paul's tin foil hat goes high definition in February 2009.
You must have a decoder ring and a special triangle to communicate with him and his other supporters.
Remember: Most planets without atmospheres support Ron Paul for President!
bigtimer...Of course I
September 11, 2008 - 16:15 ET by Jerbigtimer...Of course I disagree with your Clinton assessment, but you are absolutely right about Palin and in your criticism of usualsuspect's gender patronization.
I suppose Margaret "The Iron Lady" Thatcher was "still a woman" too, although the relevance of such fact was probably lost on those such as Gorby and the Argentines.
Jer
Hi Jer... I thought about
September 11, 2008 - 16:25 ET by bigtimerHi Jer...
I thought about mentioning her too...but wasn't going to waste too much more time when it was soon pretty obvious he is an old troll who managed to slip back in.
Not too smart either.
"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh
Oops
September 11, 2008 - 19:47 ET by well99Missed that.Oh well I saw usualsuspects post and Margret and Golda popped in my head.
Well
September 11, 2008 - 19:43 ET by well99Ever heard of Margaret Thatcher,Golda Meir?
Conservatives
September 11, 2008 - 15:16 ET by KC MulvilleRepublicans nominate an unapologetic conservative, whom we haven't seen at all in this election cycle, and the enthusiasm and support go through the roof.
It's like, you know, a mystery.
THE DEMOCRAT DECAY...30 REASONS
September 11, 2008 - 15:22 ET by reelman46THE DEMOCRAT DECAY…30 REASONS
01…They again thought 60% of voters are their kook socialist base.
02…They put forth a no achievement sock puppet with major baggage.
03…They put forth the #1 liberal who voted “present” 130 times.
04…They depended upon the diaper-changing lib media to run cover for their ticket 24-7.
05…They messed over Hillary after 18 million votes for her.
06…They again believed the fantasy fog of secular socialism would hang around thru November.
07…They put forth a ticket with no management experience.
08…They put forth a serial flopper and sorry debater (defender of his positions).
09…They put forth a coward who avoided all but the lib media softball throwers until after Labor Day (when he started fading).
10…They never go specific on realistic changes or reforms like earmarks or the tax system or 12 million illegals.
11…They put 30+ year insider genius Joe on the ticket … an big ego windbag who is part of the systemic problem.
12…They tried to say McCain was Bush when he supported Bush on 45% of the 31 major votes (lied and said 90%)
13…They sent 30 loons to Alaska to dirt dig instead of telling the voters their positions louder and more often.
14…They ignored every other demo woman for VP.
15…They were slow to slam kook lefty bloggers by name and their hateful comments week after week.
16…They believed voters wanted us to lose in Iraq and mouthed off about our troops doing bad things.
17…They put the #3 liberal on the ticket.
18…They always have had a problem with assertive conservative women.
19…They put too much faith in smears, rope-a-dope and diversions to hide their socialist pacifist agenda-record.
20…They ignored history…could not even remember Klinton only got in due to Perot and never got 50% of the vote.
21…They still think calling America a “soup line in a recession” works every time its tried.
22…They have no strong stance or record on the illegal Mexican invasion except to give them our tax money and social services.
23…They still think conserving energy is popular with voters while drilling is not.
24…They have no record of reform (in fact, they detest it) and should have as the majority in congress.
25…They discount the background vengence of the Klintons (who don’t want to go away yet).
26…They taxed Social Security but have no record of reforming it all these years.
27…They think white racial guilt and free money from higher achievers to lower are big winners.
28…They have a record of disturbing negative words against America…and talk radio has them for the voters to hear.
29…They never apologize when wrong (surge, etc)…the average voter knows arrogance when they see it.
30…They continue to lose on the so-called cultural issues (morals still matter in America).
Doug Schexnayder, Ph.D. (theconservativecrawfish)
31. Howard Dean 32. Nancy
September 11, 2008 - 16:58 ET by ThisnThat31. Howard Dean
32. Nancy Pelosi
33. Harry Reid
34. Obama
___________________________________
If you can read this, thank a teacher. If it is in English, thank a Soldier. - My barber
FlipFlop
September 11, 2008 - 15:35 ET by DontFeedTheTrollsThese are just flip-floppers, flipping from Obama to McCain.
LOL
D
P.S. Why did this thread get this ugly font?
Keep the ILLEGALS out, join NumbersUSA to send free faxes to your reps.
I blame the usualsuspect
September 11, 2008 - 16:00 ET by CobraMan"P.S. Why did this thread get this ugly font?"
I blame the usualsuspect as the italics tag overrun seems to start at the end of his post. I think it's an html error, an open tag without a close tag.
Obama: My job is above my pay grade
CM
September 11, 2008 - 18:12 ET by Noel SheppardCM,
Yep. When people bold and/or italicize tags, it screws everything up. ns
Right Back At Ya
September 11, 2008 - 16:25 ET by BarkerI'm tired of the "McCain supported Bush 90% of the time" line of attack by the Democrats going unanswered. Just how often did Obama vote with, or support, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Ted Kennedy, and the rest of the dismal Democrat congress? 90%? 95%? 100%?
It must be pretty high since Obama is considered the most liberal member of the Senate.
Right back at You
September 11, 2008 - 19:54 ET by well99Obama has voted with fellow Democrats in the Senate 97 percent of the time.
Factcheck.org-Dont leave home without it.
well99
September 11, 2008 - 20:19 ET by BarkerThanks, I owe you one.;^)
So a 100% liberal votes 97% of the time with Democrats, whose Congress has a 9% approval rating.
And there is one vote that I will never forgive a member of congress for, whether liberal or conservative, and that's the vote to cut off funding for our troops, especially in a time of war. Simply unforgivable.
Barker
September 12, 2008 - 01:17 ET by well99Yup lol.
"So a 100% liberal votes 97% of the time with Democrats, whose Congress has a 9% approval rating."
That says it all.
I hope...
September 12, 2008 - 00:07 ET by ImAllRightI hope that we can bring enough people out to vote for the Palin/McCain ticket (yes I did their names like that on purpose) but these polls truly mean nothing. Even in terms of the independent vote, it only comes doen to 40-50 people for each poll. What has me very worried is the youth vote.
My nephew is 18, in college, and all he's ever known is Bush (if you still support that fake conservative then there is no hope for you). The youth are pissed off, and if they come out like I think they finally may, then we could be in BIG trouble (I live in Florida btw). Couple that with people in poor neighborhoods and the quite real possibility of a VERY energized African-American vote and this election is no longer close at all.
Among whites, yes its very 50/50 and within reach of a win, but if Bush has really annoyed people as much as it seems he has then its not going to be easy no matter what these polls say.
That is why it is very important to vote for Palin and the other guy. Make sure to vote early as well.
"Idealism is fine, but as it approaches reality, the costs become prohibitive.” - William F. Buckley Jr.