When Global Warmingest-in-Chief Al Gore won the Nobel Peace Prize last year, the media's prideful gushing was so obvious it was almost sick-making.
Now, six months later, a fellow Nobel Peace Prize recipient is part of a group asking the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change "admit that there is no observational evidence in measured data going back 22,000 years or even millions of years that CO2 levels (whether from man or nature) have driven or are driving world temperatures."
Since it is a metaphysical certitude media will ignore this Prize winner, the following is a complete reprint of a letter sent to the IPCC on Monday (with permission):
14 April 2008
Dear Dr. Pachauri and others associated with IPCC
We are writing to you and others associated with the IPCC position – that man’s CO2 is a driver of global warming and climate change – to ask that you now in view of the evidence retract support from the current IPCC position [as in footnote 1] and admit that there is no observational evidence in measured data going back 22,000 years or even millions of years that CO2 levels (whether from man or nature) have driven or are driving world temperatures or climate change.
If you believe there is evidence of the CO2 driver theory in the available data please present a graph of it.
We draw your attention to three observational refutations of the IPCC position (and note there are more). Ice-core data from the ACIA (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment) shows that temperatures have fallen since around 4,000 years ago (the Bronze Age Climate Optimum) while CO2 levels have risen, yet this graphical data was not included in the IPCC Summary for Policymakers (Fig. SPM1 Feb07) which graphed the CO2 rise.
More recent data shows that in the opposite sense to IPCC predictions world temperatures have not risen and indeed have fallen over the past 10 years while CO2 levels have risen dramatically.
The up-dated temperature measurements have been released by the NASA’s Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) [1] as well as by the UK’s Hadley Climate Research Unit (Temperature v. 3, variance adjusted - Hadley CRUT3v) [2]. In parallel, readings of atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have been released by the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii [3]. They have been combined in graphical form by Joe D’Aleo [4], and are shown below.
![]()
These latest temperature readings represent averages of records obtained from standardized meteorological stations from around the planet, located in both urban as well as rural settings. They are augmented by satellite data, now generally accepted as ultimately authoritative, since they have a global footprint and are not easily vulnerable to manipulation nor observer error. What is also clear from the graphs is that average global temperatures have been in stasis for almost a decade, and may now even be falling.
A third important observation is that contrary to the CO2 driver theory, temperatures in the upper troposphere (where most jets fly) have fallen over the past two decades. [Footnote 2]
IPCC policy is already leading to economic and unintended environmental damage. Specifically the policy of burning food - maize as biofuel - has contributed to sharp rises in food prices which are causing great hardship in many countries and is also now leading to increased deforestation in Brazil, Malaysia, Indonesia, Togo, Cambodia, Nigeria, Burundi, Sri Lanka, Benin and Uganda for cultivation of crops [5].
Given the economic devastation that is already happening and which is now widely recognised will continue to flow from this policy, what possible justification can there be for its retention?
We ask you and all those whose names are associated with IPCC policy to accept the scientific observations and renounce current IPCC policy.
Yours sincerely,
Hans Schreuder, Analytical Chemist, mMensa, hans@tech-know.eu
Piers Corbyn, Astrophysicist UK, Dir. WeatherAction.com, piers@weatheraction.com
Dr Don Parkes, Prof. Em. Human Ecology, Australia, dnp@networksmm.com.au
Svend Hendriksen, Nobel Peace Prize 1988 (shared), Greenland, hendriksen@greennet.gl
Cc: IPCC's yu.izrael@g23.relcom.ru christy@nsstc.uah.edu spencer@nsstc.uah.edu dy.pitman@gmail.com
Tim Yeo MP (Chairman Environmental Audit Committee) Lord Martin Rees (President Royal Society)
Gordon Brown MP David Cameron MP Nick Glegg MP
Footnote 1: Two heavily publicised quotations which emerged from your organisation, respectively in February and December last year, are:
Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent (except Antarctica) (Figure SPM.4).{2.4} [6] and
The 2007 IPCC report, compiled by several hundred climate scientists, has unequivocally concluded that our climate is warming rapidly, and that we are now at least 90% certain that this is mostly due to human activities. The amount of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere now far exceeds the natural range of the past 650,000 years, and it is rising very quickly due to human activity. If this trend is not halted soon, many millions of people will be at risk from extreme events such as heat waves, drought, floods and storms, our coasts and cities will be threatened by rising sea levels, and many ecosystems, plants and animal species will be in serious danger of extinction. (Summary statement, Bali Conference.) [7].
Footnote 2: "Data over the past two decades indicates that temperatures have actually declined in the upper troposphere, even though there has been some minor upward trends in temperature at sea level and lower altitudes. This completely contradicts conventional global warming models. Before we radically rearrange the political economy of the world because some scientists claim anthropogenic CO2 is the cause of climate change, it might be worthwhile for anyone taking a position on the topic to consider whether or not this is indeed "well settled science." Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT, March 2008.
References:
1. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/msu.html
2. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature
3. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
4. http://icecap.us/index.php/go/experts Joseph D’Aleo, Certified Consultant Meteorologist,
Fellow of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), Executive Director Icecap.us
5. http://rainforests.mongabay.com/0801.htm
6. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf
For those interested, Hendriksen was once part of the United Nations Peacekeeping Forces, which collectively received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1988.
—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters.













Comments Policy
I'm going to set a reminder
April 14, 2008 - 17:26 ET by JohnMI'm going to set a reminder to come back and follow up on this... since I sincerely doubt it will be hitting MSM headlines anytime soon.
Thanks for this piece, Noel. I wish more non-alarmist scientists would make requests such as this and apply more public pressure to the UN.
I was envisioning some
April 14, 2008 - 18:07 ET by radiofitz34I was envisioning some responses by the IPCC : 1) Well, that's just your reality. 2) Thank you for your concern about this issue. It has been duely noted (trashed) by our advisors (lawyers) and we encourage you to be cheerful and have a nice day. 3) What letter? We didn't receive any frickin letter.
It won't hit MSM headlines
April 16, 2008 - 09:57 ET by DJEddleIt won't hit MSM headlines and the "scientists" that enjoy being "the consensus" will simply disparage these guys.
It's not as if there is real opposition to what is already "settled science," right? Do these people really think there are legitimate concerns regarding what many claim to know about our climate?
We know everything. Anyone who disagrees with that is just being silly.
*If you like the comments, check out the articles.
I hope they really dont
April 14, 2008 - 17:44 ET by bassndudeI hope they really dont expect the UN and the IPCC will give up any hope of collecting the millions of dollars that this cash cow is providing for them. Honesty is not what the UN is famous for.
Save a SeAL, club a liberal!!
bass... I normally agree
April 14, 2008 - 21:39 ET by Clear thinkerbass...
I normally agree with you, but I find myself having to set you straight on something...
"I hope they really dont expect the UN and the IPCC will give up any hope of collecting the millions of dollars that this cash cow is providing for them"
I would have used the term BILLIONS of dollars.
Picky, ain't I?
"Abstain from McCain"
Bookmarked, copied, and
April 14, 2008 - 17:44 ET by CortillaenBookmarked, copied, and forwarded to a number of people. If this ever got wide exposure, maybe some people would rethink their positions (which defines said positions as ignorant), but the MSM will make sure that doesn't happen. <sarc>Those who threaten the Goracle's pocketboo-er, prophecies must not have a voice.</sarc>
www.rhjunior.com Great comics with a hefty dose of Christian and anti-nutjob goodness.
"With your mind as high as Mt. Fuji you can see all things clearly. And you can see all the forces that shape events; not just the things near to you." -Miyamoto Musashi
Noel, Was this/did this
April 14, 2008 - 18:51 ET by Sick-n-TiredNoel, Was this/did this letter double as a press release, or was it specifically and solely a letter to the UN's IPCC that was shared with you. Reason I ask is might we see it in other "skeptical" news outlets? Might this letter have the chance to make its rounds elsewhere? Excluding the MSM of course. I am going to share this with ALL of my AGW disciple friends!
The house of cards is starting to fall all around them---no wonder Gore is making a last ditch, $300 million effort to re-indoctrinate the sheeple.. "Controlling carbon is a bureaucrat's dream. If you control carbon, you control life," Richard Lindzen - March 2007.
posted at - Ilovemycarbondioxide
April 14, 2008 - 19:49 ET by Giles Winterbournehttp://www.ilovemyca... (PDF)
link from front page (warning: autostart sound and vid). No copyright notice on that page, though he does say "Read my letters please and copy them to send to your local Council or MP" about.htm
That crazy Al Gore. He's
April 14, 2008 - 19:58 ET by Jack BauerThat crazy Al Gore. He's such a damn Warm Monger.
somewhat selective data choices
April 14, 2008 - 21:20 ET by Giles WinterbourneWell, you could look at some of the other data setsand note the continued warming trend that fits to IPCC predictions.
And note 10 years really isn't a trend - run the figures back to beginnings of the various data sets for longer trends.
Or that they don't mention ice melt...
Rather odd that they would throw in a "...three observational refutations of the IPCC position (and note there are more)." statement with no links and little further discussion. Sorry to get all English teacher, but that really makes this read like a first draft, not a 'ready for publishing' piece.
FYI: reference 5 doesn't mention deforestation caused by corn/ ethanol production, but does mention banning soy production as lessening deforestation.
Giles Winterbourne
April 14, 2008 - 21:24 ET by Free StinkerIt's interesting that you don't mention thickening glaciers . . .
as in the glaciers are growing . . .
Pledge to not support RINOs ever again!
forgot to link to a resource
April 15, 2008 - 02:31 ET by Giles WinterbourneSince FS forgot to link to a resource, here is some data:
"The average mass balance of the glaciers with available long-term mass balance series around the world continues to decrease"
Glaciers are Growing
April 15, 2008 - 11:40 ET by PopularTechThere are plenty of Glaciers that are Growing Giles:
Antarctica - Antarctic ice sheet thickening, researcher says (Associated Press)
Antarctica - East Antarctica's surface slowly rising (The New York Times)
Antarctica - Ice 'thickens' in West Antarctica (BBC)
Antarctica - Researchers find Antarctic ice is thickening (USA Today)
Antarctica - Scientists Detect Thickening Of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (Science Daily)
Antarctica - Snowfall-Driven Growth in East Antarctic Ice Sheet Mitigates Recent Sea-Level Rise (Science)
Antarctica - Study: Antarctic Ice Sheet Is Thickening, Not Thinning (ABC News)
Antarctica - The Antarctic Ice Sheet is Growing Thicker (Not by Fire but by Ice)
Glaciers - Fox Glacier, Fox Glacier has been advancing since 1985 (Alpine Guides)
Glaciers - Franz Josef Glacier, A Glacier Grows, Undeterred by Heated Kyoto Debate (CNSNews)
Glaciers - Glacier National Park, Science debunks Glacier Park warming alarm (The Heartland Institute)
Glaciers - Global warming boost to glaciers (BBC)
Glaciers - Himalayan Glaciers Are Growing ... and Confounding Global Warming Alarmists (The Heartland Institute)
Glaciers - Hubbard Glacier, Alaska: Growing and Advancing in Spite of Global Climate Change (USGS)
Glaciers - Icy Bay Glaciers get up and go (SitNews)
Glaciers - Johns Hopkins Glacier is advancing and moving 3000 feet per year (Glacier Bay National Park)
Glaciers - Kolka Glacier is growing again (NTV, Russia)
Glaciers - Kilimanjaro's ice set to linger (BBC)
Glaciers - Kilimanjaro Glacier, The Woes Of Kilimanjaro: Don't Blame Global Warming (Science Daily)
Glaciers - McGinnis Glacier, Chance Discovery: Alaska Range Glacier Surges (Science Daily)
Glaciers - Meares Glacier, an advancing glacier tearing up trees and rocks in its path as it grows (Alaska Tours)
Glaciers - Melting glacier 'false alarm' (The Daily Telegraph, UK)
Glaciers - Mont Blanc Glacier, Global warming makes Mont Blanc grow (The Daily Telegraph, UK)
Glaciers - Mont Blanc Glaciers Refuse to Shrink? (World Climate Report)
Glaciers - Mount Shasta Glaciers Defy Global Warming, Grow (CBS)
Glaciers - Mount St. Helens Glacier, At the crater’s rim, something ‘mind-bogglingly cool’ (The News Tribune)
Glaciers - Nigardsbreen Glacier is growing by 25 to 50 meters per year (Jostedal Glacier National Park)
Glaciers - Norway's glaciers growing at record pace (Agence-France Presse)
Glaciers - Perito Moreno Glacier, The largest glacier in Argentina Advances Continuously (Los Glaciares National Park)
Glaciers - Permanent Ice Fields Are Resisting Global Warming (Science Daily)
Glaciers - Pio XI Glacier, The biggest glacier in South America keeps growing every year (Visit Chile)
Glaciers - Small Glaciers In Northern California Buck Global Warming Trend (Science Daily)
Glaciers - Study: Glacier melting can be variable (Breitbart)
Glaciers - Study Says Glaciers Formed During a Very Warm Period (The New York Times)
Glaciers - Warming Climate Can Support Glacial Ice: It Did In Much Warmer Times (Science Daily)
Greenland - ERS Altimeter Survey Shows Growth of Greenland Ice Sheet Interior (ESA - European Space Agency)
Greenland - Study Shows Greenland’s Ice Growing (CO2 Science)
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
anomalies v. real science
April 15, 2008 - 12:25 ET by Giles Winterbourne"In contrast, the advance phase is characterised by anomalous southwest
airflow, especially during the ablation season, and higher
precipitation. The high pressure anomaly is shifted westward by about
55° of longitude so as to lie south of Australia. The advance phase is
also related to a higher frequency of El Niño events."
"The observed downward trend in summer temperature and runoff is
consistent with the observed thickening and expansion of Karakoram
glaciers, in contrast to widespread decay and retreat in the eastern
Himalayas. This suggests that the western Himalayas are showing a
different response to global warming than other parts of the globe."
Also, you are mixing up advancing and surging; so review is in order (maybe you could start at Wikipedia).
So, you have a short list of glaciers, no long term studies, mostly from delayer sites or newspapers with no links to the actual reports. Also, many are tourist attraction sites, where advancing glaciers are mentioned as something special. That should give the reader a hint.
On the other hand, we can go to the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) and look at the losses dating back years (from 1980 on pages 87and 88 (13mb PDF).
Might want to check your list for broken links.
See? I didn't need to give
April 15, 2008 - 12:29 ET by Free StinkerSee? I didn't need to give you a link. PT has much better lists than I do, and you dismiss them as "anomolies" anyway!
Pledge to not support RINOs ever again!
truth ???
April 15, 2008 - 13:19 ET by LionKingFunny. Deniers (aka realists) data gets dismissed as anomalies while Warmers (aka cultists) do not have any real science.
It is amazing how arrogant Warmers are to think that we can actually control climate change.
real science
April 15, 2008 - 13:30 ET by Giles WinterbourneI pointed out that the real science is available.
The reader can choose which is better to make an informed decision.
Propaganda vs. Science
April 15, 2008 - 13:58 ET by PopularTechThe reader can also choose to observe that a mass balance of 30 glaciers out of over 100,000 is meaningless. While on the other hand I clearly proved that not all glaciers are melting as is widely exaggerated. But as you clearly pointed out the ones that are growing are due to nature and the ones that are melting are due to man, both at the same time! Yes the reader can make up their own minds.
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
read more closely
April 15, 2008 - 16:39 ET by Giles WinterbourneThe reader can make the choice to use a list of a few glaciers that have some newspaper reportage and tourism information of advancing or surging, or look at a long term, well documented worldwide study by a rebutable organization.
A single report of a glacier in Alaska that might have surged two years ago with no further updates, no history of observationis is about as accurate a statement of current climate changes as someone's blog noting they think they saw birds nesting earlier in the spring than last year.
'growing are due to nature' & ' melting are due to man' - Better phrased as anthropogenic climate change creating regional effects on glaciers world wide. Increased or reduced precipitation, wind currents, etc.
Umm, Giles...
April 15, 2008 - 16:50 ET by Karma...you may want to correct this.
...worldwide study by a rebutable organization. ??
Touring the Glaciers
April 15, 2008 - 21:20 ET by PopularTechNo Giles this is even better they can take tours and see glaciers advancing for themselves!
And yes all these organizations are so unreputable:
ABC News
Associated Press
BBC
Breitbart
CNSNews
European Space Agency
The New York Times
USA Today
USGS
Science
Science Daily
The Daily Telegraph, UK
Of course Giles no matter what happens a glacier advancing or retreating are both caused by man. We already know AGW causes everything:
A complete list of things caused by global warming (Number Watch)
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
What would be the point of
April 15, 2008 - 12:41 ET by dscottWhat would be the point of checking WGMS when their record only goes back to 1980? Since the Ice Age scare of the 70s would have caused the glaciers to increase significantly during that time period and it takes a few years (up to 5 years) to see that fully reflected in the glacier measurements, all you accomplished is setting an artifically high base line from which to fall. All the cooling of the last few years will take another few years to show up in the measurements, then what will you say?
Not to mention WGMS doesn't measure many of the world's glaciers, as you should have figured out by now, cherry picking the data by claiming the data you are sampling is a representation of the whole is extrapolation. We all know that extrapolation makes lots of assumptions which are not true and is sloppy science.
Lord Sidious / Darth Vader 2008 Long Live the Empire! Come to the Dark Side, it is your Destiny.
"Basic information on
April 15, 2008 - 16:39 ET by Giles Winterbourne"Basic information
on specific net balance, cumulative specific balance, accumulation area
ratio and equilibrium line altitude is given for 105 glaciers."
With data back to 1945.
bad link, however in any
April 15, 2008 - 17:00 ET by dscottbad link, however in any event 105 glaciers isn't most of the glaciers and as you yourself pointed out regional conditions determine whether any particular glacier grows or shrinks. So what's your point? You still don't have sufficient information to make a judgement call on AGW and glaciers. Like with Kilomanjaro, humidity and precip conditions have way more to do with glacier formation than any so called theory of AGW. This is why they pretty much stopped pushing glacier activity, one look at Mt. St. Helens glacier (on a volcano) blows the whole idea of AGW out the door.
Lord Sidious / Darth Vader 2008 Long Live the Empire! Come to the Dark Side, it is your Destiny.
Kilimanjaro...
April 15, 2008 - 17:41 ET by danboKilimanjaro... It's changing?
Larger from An inconvinient truth. And in 2008.
"There is a clear attempt to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition."
- Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Meteorology, MIT
Propaganda vs. Science
April 15, 2008 - 13:21 ET by PopularTechSo again when they advance it is caused by nature but when they retreat it is caused by man! I got it Giles.
I wouldn't want to mix up a lot of ice moving closer to you as that would confuse the non-scientist as to what is going on.
Sorry about some of the sources Giles as we all know only alarmist sites such as RealClimate are correct.
I am sure the local tourist boards must be manipulating the glaciers to grow for money, got it. The reader should pretend these glaciers do not exist so it is easier to except the AGW con.
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
Have you noticed most of
April 15, 2008 - 13:32 ET by dscottHave you noticed most of the glaciers you listed as growing don't show up on the WGMS mass balance? I wonder why that is??? Why spoil a perfectly good narrative with the clutter of all the facts? In the legal business, it's called relevant facts - culling the multitude of facts by ruling out irrelevent facts not conforming to the line of argument. It's called lying by omission.
Lord Sidious / Darth Vader 2008 Long Live the Empire! Come to the Dark Side, it is your Destiny.
Your first reference
April 14, 2008 - 23:06 ET by NL207Your first reference reports 4 data sets. For the moment, lets assume they are all actually real data. Three of them clearly show that observed warming has deviated sufficiently from the IPCC prediction that it has fallen below the lower error bar of the IPCC prediction. Translation: 3 of the 4 datasets you present here contradict the IPCC's predictions.
The fourth data set is interesting. It shows temperatures are now in the lower quartile of the IPCC prediction. I note that data set is from GISS. Do you know who GISS is? It's NASA/GISS, home of Dr. Gavin Schmidt, one of your lovely friends at realclimate.org. Why is their "data" different from everybody else's?
Giles, are you a complete idiot?
Insulting or projecting?
April 15, 2008 - 04:44 ET by Giles WinterbourneIPCC scenarios from previous reports and observed changes - Look at IPCC WG1 Technical Summary page 69 or WG1 ch. 1 pg 98 or Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections
Note also that my link was to a NYT blog discussion of Pielke data - might want to read through the discussion on that ...
RealClimate article about data selection and Hansen's 1988 predictions, Discussion of Hansen's data at Rabett Run.
Pielke Jr. Obliterated Hansen's 1988 "Predictions"
April 15, 2008 - 09:40 ET by PopularTechEvaluating Jim Hansen’s 1988 Climate Forecast (Roger A. Pielke (Jr.), Ph.D. Political Science)
Hansen's 1988 predictions are worthless as are all the others based on computer models.
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
PT I assume you've seen the
April 15, 2008 - 10:50 ET by danboPT I assume you've seen the update by Pielke.
Watching Realclimates attempt to minimize this has been funny and also enlightening.
"There is a clear attempt to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition."
- Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Meteorology, MIT
Again, GISS is out of touch with reality
April 15, 2008 - 11:51 ET by PopularTechIt is becoming comical to watch the GISS records adjusted... I mean "corrected" off the charts.
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
Still linking the same
April 15, 2008 - 19:51 ET by NL207Still linking the same guys, aren't we.
Still can't debate the science either.
The bottom line is this: The IPCC 2AR [1995] did not have the cheek to make predictions, unlike Dr. Hansen and your friends at realclimate.org. It reported there had been a 0.3 - 0.6 degree K increase in mean near surface global temoperature over the previous century. IPCC in the 3AR [2001] predicted 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius degrees for the next century. The IPCC 4AR [2007] predicted 1.1 and 6.4 °C over the same interval.
The real data has come in consistently at or below the lower bounds of the IPCC predictions. The 3AR is the metric for the last ten years. The 4AR wasn't published until that interval was all but over, so it can be hardly called a prediction w.r.t. the last ten years. The 3AR suggests on average we should have seen a 0.36 degree K increase in mean near surface temps over the last ten years. We did not see an increase of any kind over that period. This might suggest to people with critical thinking ability that the prediction was incorrect. But what do you do? You struggle to find a dataset that just barely fits into the very bottom of the later 4AR ex post facto "prediction" and then declare that these geniuses at the IPCC and realclimate.org were correct!
They got it wrong Giles. Fessup. Point mine. You lose.
A real scientist would be asking questions like: "Why was the prediction wrong?". Political activists spin their wheels, make excuses and fudge data just like the folks at realclimate.org and NASA/GISS are doing right now. Do a little "Google" on 'adjusted temperature data' and see what comes up. If you are intellectually honest, you will see it immediately. If you are not, I get to win another debate point from you.
Thanks for making my point
April 14, 2008 - 21:53 ET by dboAnd note 10 years really isn't a trend ...
If ten years isn't really a trend why did James Hansen claim the sky is falling in 1988 after only 9 years of modest warming?
try a century
April 15, 2008 - 03:02 ET by Giles Winterbourne"The global temperature rose by 0.2 degrees C between the middle 1960's
and 1980, yielding a warming of 0.4 degrees C in the past century."
" It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980's."
Science 28 August 1981 Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
J. Hansen,
D. Johnson,
A. Lacis,
S. Lebedeff,
P. Lee,
D. Rind, and
G. Russell
Data back to the 1880's
Who gives a rats
April 15, 2008 - 03:07 ET by bigtimerWho gives a rats rear...it's snowing here now...and supposed to snow tomorrow.
It's spring dang it all...my daffodils never saw the day of light because of the snow...where is the global warming...I'm patiently waiting because I trust and believe the alarmists so....algore where art thou?
"Never murder your opponent when he is committing suicide." ~ W. Churchill
It's Hansenized. How much
April 15, 2008 - 08:31 ET by danboIt's Hansenized.
How much is the data being adjusted. (Though the term altered may be more appropriate.) "On average 20% of the historical record was modified 16 times in the last 2 1/2 years. The largest single jump was 0.27 C. This occurred between the Oct 13, 2006 and Jan 15, 2007 records when Aug 2006 changed from an anomoly of +0.43C to +0.70C, a change of nearly 68%."
Chart of years modified. Source
From. "Hansenize. Verb. To make a correction to historical records in such a way that the correction has the effect of increasing the error that the correction purports to correct."
Will the real historical record please stand up!
"There is a clear attempt to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition."
- Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Meteorology, MIT
The Gig is Up
April 15, 2008 - 11:03 ET by dbo"The global temperature rose by 0.2 degrees C between the middle 1960's
and 1980, yielding a warming of 0.4 degrees C in the past century."
And note 10 years really isn't a trend ...
Spin, Spin, Spin, Spin. Global tepmerature declined from 1940-1978 which probably explains why Hansen was on a team in 1971 predicting global cooling. Then there was modest warming from 1979-1988 when Hansen made his doomsday scenarios. The warming in the 9 years 1979-1988 was one half the amount of cooling which took place between 1998-2008. Admit it Giles, the gig is up. The whole AGW movement is leaking oil. Solar cycles 24 and 25 are going to be cooler, the PDO is changing and the only thing that is going to be under water in 30 years is Hansen's credibility. It's one thing to just to be wrong, but the it's a whole different kettle of fish to be caught in a scam. The higher the top the longer the drop. Jump ship now while you can still save face. All you are doing by propagating this myth is taking away from real enviromental concerns that are out there. It's one thing for Gore to be caught in a big lie, that's his job as a politician, but Hansen, Schmidt, and Mann are going to go down in history as the 21st centuries biggest pyramid scheme.
Try absurd
April 15, 2008 - 17:35 ET by CobraMan"The global temperature rose by 0.2 degrees C between the middle 1960's and 1980, yielding a warming of 0.4 degrees C in the past century."
So, the measured global mean surface temperatures over the last century has apparently increased a half of a degree Celsius over the last 100 years and this would tend to indicate a general warming trend? How can anyone make such an absurd claim?
How is this claim absurd, you may ask? Well that’s an easy question to answer. That .5 degree C difference easily falls within the margin of error between the rather inaccurate measurements made by primitive thermometers of 100 years ago and the more accurate measuring devices of today.
You may not realize this, but almost all the temperature measurements that were taken over the majority of that 100 year period, including those made in the 60’s, were based on readings obtained by glass encased ethanol thermometers, which were the most abundant means of measuring temperature at that time. These older measuring devices were not very accurate and the readings obtain by them varied greatly between each thermometer that was manufactured, and varied even more between the different thermometer manufactures of that time.
Most of that inherent variance was due to several factors; including the purity of the glass and ethanol, the methods of production, the variance of the compounds which comprises the glass and ethanol mixtures, and the quality control problems inherent in the glass forming process which can lead to variances in the internal diameter of each thermometer. Each of these factors contributes to how accurately temperature is measured by these types of thermometers. A variance in any one of those factors leads directly to a variance between the indicated temperature and the actual temperature. Then there’s the rather inaccurate means of marking temperature gradients for the thermometers that was used at that time. A small variance in measurement of each gradient mark can lead to a large difference between the indicated temperature and the actual temperature.
Since we’re making a conclusion derived by results of calculations which are based on data which was collected through knowingly inaccurate measuring devices and whose margin of inaccuracy is impossible to determine and account for with any degree of precision, do you think that it may be possible that the results of those calculations are actually wrong?
I do. I think that it’s very possible that those older readings were highly inaccurate, that the results of the comparative calculations are inherently flawed because of this, and that any conclusion based on the results are, therefore, also inherently flawed. Since the results are flawed, it is reasonable to conclude that any and all claims based on those results are similarly flawed. Making unverifiable claims based on flawed data and inaccurate calculations is absurd, would you agree?
Graph - a great tee, with al gore on the back..
April 14, 2008 - 21:00 ET by Gary HallNoel, that graph would make for a great printed tee-shirt. Now, we just add that picture of Al Gore - blowing fire - on the back, and we're in business. (:~> gary
Gary
April 14, 2008 - 21:09 ET by Noel SheppardGary,
Yes, yes, yes!!! I LIKE it! ns
You missed your que, NS
April 14, 2008 - 21:17 ET by Gary HallWith the tee being titled: "Global Realists" on the front, and "[Shrill] Global Alarmists" on the back. (;~>
Climate Change Q... I
April 14, 2008 - 21:49 ET by Clear thinkerClimate Change Q...
I have to admit that some of the science and data used in the global warming arguments has a tendency to go over my head, so the following question may seem dumb and simplistic to you folks, but to me it's not. Here goes....
We know for a fact that a lot of weather recording stations have their recording equipment in areas or close to other heat reflecting/producing equipment that can easily throw off the temperature readings. Sooooo, if we know ahead of time that the collecting of data is collecting bad data, how in the hell can we even begin to argue data points, graphs, etc? Seems to me that all of this arguing is moot until we get accurate readings. Am I wrong?
"Abstain from McCain"
Goracle
April 14, 2008 - 22:30 ET by allahallahoxenfreeWhen will this manmade CO2 lunacy end? How many more people in this world need to go hungry due to the idiotic use of biofuels? Whose idea was this? Tie energy supply to something as variable as the weather? GREAT IDEA. Jackasses who advocate corn ethanol subsidies should have to spend a week in a Port Au Prince ghetto with no money and try to find some food. The answer is DRILL MORE OIL. We SHOULD be drilling in ANWR. We SHOULD be drilling more in the Gulf. We should be wringing the estimated 2 TRILLION barrels of oil in the shales of the US and Canadian Rockies. Ethanol is a ruse on humanity. It DOES NOT even reduce CO2 emissions not that it even matters. We should be doing this to create more jobs here, keep the money at home and stop funding the very asshats who keep trying to blow us up! We should be taking advantage of this energy while we develop truly renewable forms that will help the whole world in the future whether it be fusion, hydrgen or whatever. We should also be fasttracking refineries and nuclear power plants that recycle the previously spent fuel. Europe does this safely, why can't we? We SHOULD be planting more food to sell to the rest of the world which is not as blessed with such fertile land.
The way I see it, the main problem is an self serving Congress with a criminally complicit useful idiot media being duped by so called environmentalists who are thinly disguised neo communists. WE NEED TERM LIMITS FOR CONGRESS, be it 18 years or 24 years. Anything is better than Kennedy siiting on his pompous ass for 40 years sucking money from us while actively harming this country with idiotic policies. we need to start a grass roots level movement on this for a public referendum because these selfish pukes are not going to do it themselves.
Phew, thats been building up for a while.
If it ends, it will be
April 15, 2008 - 11:32 ET by dscottIf it ends, it will be quietly just like the Ice Age scare of the 70s. You have listed all the logical responses of what normal people who have nothing to profit from an agenda would do. The problem is there are multiple agendas. I suspect very strongly that Al Gore pushed the whole thing to take the stigma away from nuclear power in the first place (Gore was a primary supporter of nuke power, then he quietly distanced himself). His plan A flopped so he's going with plan B to make a profit off the alternative energy.
Let's add to that the agenda of Europe and Japan to get away from the Arabs supplying their energy, they didn't have the guts to come out and say they were going to become energy independent lest they raise the wrath of their oil suppliers who would potentially retaliate by either jacking up the prices to take as much money from them as possible or alternately, drop the price of oil so that it would never be economically possible to use alternate energy. The Europeans and Japanese wanted out of suppling money to terrorist funding using oil money. The Arabs weren't stupid, they saw right through the Kyoto nonsense and kept the price of oil low throughout the Clinton Admin in the hopes that the disinsentive use alternate energy would cause everyone to give up. Clinton didn't sign the Kyoto treaty because he knew under stable oil prices there was no economic justification for the US to hike it's own energy prices to achieve energy independence and he knew the environmental lobby would fight him tooth and nail if he were to advocate nuclear which was the logical choice using the breeder reactor as France does. Well, for a while it worked until the Iranians got greedy, now the plan is to suck as much money as possible out of the West before the gravey train is over or enough financial pain has been meeted out so the West cries uncle.
Of course the Europeans, being the gutless wonders they are, came up with the carbon credit scam to offset the disruption to the third world this whole change would create. Carbon credits are supposed to be used to fund energy projects in the third world. They counted on the US joining the scam in order to fund the bulk of the energy projects, and it never happened. You see the Europeans and Japanese knowing their demographic decline was coming were counting on 2012 to save them from doing anything thus dumping the whole load on the US. Please note that the 1990 and 2012 dates coincidentally match the projected population curves of the Europeans and Japanese.
It was a scam from beginning to end, and the US tax payer was the mark to pick up the tab.
Lord Sidious / Darth Vader 2008 Long Live the Empire! Come to the Dark Side, it is your Destiny.
Hey Goracle, great rant. I
April 14, 2008 - 23:17 ET by Lancasters Saved UsHey Goracle, great rant. I pasted it and sent to my buddy in Qatar (school teacher) Said I wished I'd wrote it.
In other news....
April 15, 2008 - 00:16 ET by Giles Winterbourne"Global temperatures are rising. Observations collected over the last century suggest that the average land surface temperature has risen 0.45-0.6°C (0.8-1.0°F) in the last century. The surface of the ocean
has also been warming at a similar rate." Data Sources: Phil Jones, University of East Anglia (UK) and David Parker, United Kingdom Meteorological Office (surface data); John Christy, University of Alabama and Roy Spencer, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (satellite data).
"The monthly fluctuations of global or near-global temperature, as well as the trend over recent
decades can be seen in Figure 2 for the GISS surface temperature analysis as well as the lower mean
tropospheric data of UAH (University of Alabama at Huntsville)2 and RSS (Remote Sensing Systems).
The reason to show these is to expose the recent nonsense that has appeared in the blogosphere, to the
effect that recent cooling has wiped out global warming of the past century, and the Earth may be headed
into an ice age. On the contrary, these misleaders have foolishly (or devilishly) fixated on a natural
fluctuation that will soon disappear."
"President Bush is poised to change course and announce as early as this
week that he wants Congress to pass a bill to combat global warming,
and will lay out principles for what that should include."
Giles, I want to mark my calendar.
April 15, 2008 - 08:04 ET by KarmaThe reason to show these is to expose the recent nonsense that has appeared in the blogosphere, to the effect that recent cooling has wiped out global warming of the past century, and the Earth may be headed into an ice age. On the contrary, these misleaders have foolishly (or devilishly) fixated on a natural fluctuation that will soon disappear."
To mark my calendar, I'll need a more specific time frame, generated by their computer model of course. Will this "fluctuation" end in a week?...a month?...a year?...a decade?...a century?...
Why didn't they tell us about this fluctuation in advance? When is the next "fluctuation" due to arrive? These are things I need to know to schedule my future and to decide whether to pack sweaters or swimsuits. Please answer ASAP; my life is in turmoil.
Distortion again. You
April 15, 2008 - 08:08 ET by danboDistortion again. You avoided a few statements in your link. "About two-thirds of this warming took place between 1900 and 1940." There was a warming from about 1910's till the late 30's. (Prior to that was a cool trend.) This is an interensting trend. Seems our use of fossil fuels was stagnant due to something you don't know about. The depression. You can't blame that rise on increasing fuel usage.
Then a cooling followed from the 50's to late 70's.. Then a warming from the late 70's and we may be out of that phase.
Giles did you notice this nonsense chart on your link. Near the bottom. Here. Looks like satellite and surface temps don't match.
Then Giles again gives us that wonderful link at Col Ed.
Which shows the world is warmer than the mean temps of from 1951- 80. That known cool period.
The next AGW magic that will be used to scare people. A chart showing how much warmer it is now than during the plistocene.
Has your post been sufficiently Hansenized?
How many ways can we distort?
"There is a clear attempt to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition."
- Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Meteorology, MIT
Danbo, if you read the
April 15, 2008 - 10:11 ET by bassndudeDanbo, if you read the bottom of the Col. Edu. they so much as admit adjusting the numbers so that it is more agreeable with the wished for results. Also, the charts start with the year 1980, doing away with the "ice age" they were saying was comming. So the variations in the temp cycles are done away with.
Save a SeAL, club a liberal!!
And then you compare it to
April 15, 2008 - 11:12 ET by danboAnd then you compare it to the Ice Age 50's-70's. And suprise. It's warmer.
"There is a clear attempt to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition."
- Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Meteorology, MIT
Global Temperatures are Falling
April 15, 2008 - 09:44 ET by PopularTech2006 - Russian Scientist Issues Global Cooling Warning (Russian News and Information Agency)
2006 - Short-Term Ocean Cooling Suggests Global Warming 'Speed Bump' (Science Daily)
2006 - The Coldest Year In The Last Five Years (The Reference Frame)
2007 - Is 'global cooling' the real threat? (The Washington Times)
2007 - Year of Global Cooling (The Washington Times)
2007 - Coolest Winter Since 2001 For U.S., Globe, According To NOAA Data (Science Daily)
2008 - Solar Activity Diminishes; Researchers Predict Another Ice Age (DailyTech)
2008 - Forget global warming: Welcome to the new Ice Age (National Post, Canada)
2008 - Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling (DailyTech)
2008 - The Oceans Have Stopped Warming! (Canada Free Press)
2008 - Global temperatures 'to decrease' (BBC)
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
Giles, you are a
April 15, 2008 - 10:08 ET by NL207Giles, you are a hoot!
your references:
1. Climate Realists agreee that it has gotten warmer over the last century. They differ with the alarmists over the extent of human contribution and the net potential of future increases in CO2 to contribute to global warming. The empirical science supports this view. The models support the alarmists. My money is on the empirical science, and hence, the realists.
2. Again you reference the same GISS dasta as you did in an earlier post. The reference is Dr. James E. Hansen and his disciples at NASA. In your previous post you included a reference showing that NASA/GISS is the only track of 4 plotted that shows temperatures over the last decade have remained within the envelope of the IPCC predictions. The rest all say IPCC is in error. This implies the models used by both Hansen and the IPCC are in error. It also suggests the most recent data being published by GISS is discrepant from everyone else including the respected Hadley Center in the UK. Why do you suppose this is?
3. Since when is President Bush a scientist? You don't agree with him about anything else and have generally regarded him as a dolt in the rare posts where you've mentioned him in the past.
The Climate Alarmists are beginning to lose the Scientific debate and in some very significant ways. I think their errors are blatantly obvious. Everytime I try to discuss these problems in an intelligent way with kool-aid drinkers like you, all I get are a flurry of links back to NASA/GISS, Columbia University, realclimate.org and Dr. J. E. Hansen. These are all the same few people, Hansen and his team at NASA ..... and they are wrong.
I will even tell you how they are wrong: (1) They have ignored the role that water vapor transport in the atmosphere plays in heat transfer. This is called convection, a heat transfer mechanism that is orders of magnitude more efficient than radiation. (2) They have failed to correctly account for the role of clouds in controlling albedo. (3) They initially and incorrectly ignored variability in solar output, an error they have since addressed, but I believe inadequately.
The alarmists postulated that the Beer-Lambert law did not apply because of 'positive feedbacks' and built this into their models. The latest satellite data say they goofed, agreeing with what the empirical paleoclimate data says.
My money says you will debate none of this because you lack the critical thinking skills to do so, and simply publish another flurry of links to those erroneous scientists at realclimate.org.
NL207 "Dr.
April 15, 2008 - 10:36 ET by contraryNL207
"Dr. Winterbourne" aside, your post is very interesting, and motivates me to explore this topic more. However, I am baffled by the political machine that is Global Warming that dictates many discussions, much to the detriment of finding the answers to these very important questions.
Thanks for your contributions.
"Republicans always get a huge pass on the racist issue. Huck is just another example. Provided they don't start up with the N word, they seem able to pander directly to the racist vote."
-- Chuck Davis, intellectual heavyweight, bigot
you are right, the science is lost in the politics
April 15, 2008 - 12:43 ET by Giles WinterbourneCommon Arguments from Fossil-Fuel Industry Organizations
and Skeptic/Denier Sites Used To Deceive The Public About Climate
Change - Debunked.
copied with permission
Same old Giles. Same old
April 15, 2008 - 12:51 ET by Jack BauerSame old Giles. Same old shite.
How's your crappy "book" coming along Giles?
The hockey stick has been effectively proven to be a huge fraud, meant for the guillable and witless. So of course you keep posting it.
You keep posting links to the same old Warm Earthers and same old Climate Hoaxers. What a boring klown.
Carbon Fiber HS
April 16, 2008 - 11:17 ET by Giles WinterbourneMight want to note that 4th IPCC report not only continues to use the Mann, et al study, but overlays it with several other studies using additional data and other methods of processing. It isn't 'the Hockey Stick' so much as a whole bunch of tested and retested hockey sticks. Perhaps you could take one and go test it on the ice - see if you can break one.
Also, focusing on 'the HS debate' worked slightly as a delayer/denier ploy as there was so much press about early questions. However, there has been another whole level of scrutiny and a level of repeated studies vindicating the accuracy of the original Mann, et al study. That is one reason 'the HS', as an argument in the delayer/denier lexicon, has lost favor.
"As is typical of the scientific process, independent teams of researchers have worked to reproduce the results of the "hockey stick" by using their own approaches and even by using slightly different data. These studies sometimes produce slightly higher temperature fluctuations in the past compared with the initial study. But despite their differences, they still yield the same essential conclusion: the past 10- to 20-year period was likely the warmest of the past millennium."
Focusing on the HS debate actually weakens the delayer/denier argument. Attempting to disprove AGW with discrediting the science behind one small group of studies belies the fact that there are ~500 pages of references to studies over a wide range of topics involving climate change. The denier/delayer proponents don't have a similar body of evidence to show proof of cause.
It's nice to know the IPCC
April 16, 2008 - 11:54 ET by dscottIt's nice to know the IPCC is consistent with it's belief system, by continuing to use the flawed Mann graphic they demonstrate that science has nothing to do with AGW. Sorry GW, but when the Medieval Optimum (M.O.)and Little Ice Age is (L.I.A.)not shown in proper proportion on the Mann graphic which encompasses their time period, this demonstrates blind faith not science.
The ocean level was 18 inches higher during the M.O. than today, so clearly today's temperatures are not as warm as the M.O. The ocean level was approx 18 inches lower during the L.I.A., so clearly that time period was significantly colder than today. The Mann hockey stick defies reason and to believe in it requires blind faith.
Lord Sidious / Darth Vader 2008 Long Live the Empire! Come to the Dark Side, it is your Destiny.
Giles Winterbourne DO NOT "PM " ME EVER, AGAIN !
April 16, 2008 - 11:45 ET by upcountrywaterYour sniveling condecending oratory, is borish rude and ARROGANT.
Your sites are blathering opinions from smear mongers.
ZERO science none zip nadda.
Let me know when it's 115 F in Omaha, any time THIS year, other than that, troll else where.
<gaia/love>SAVVVE The Whales N' Earth; conserve N' recycle !
IranianUranium<sleep>New/Infrastructure/repair?/ROFLMAO
The Hockey Stick has been thoroughly discredited
April 16, 2008 - 16:49 ET by PopularTechGiles please stop defending the worthless Hockeystick graph. Your desperation and obvious computer illiteracy is really pathetic to watch as you try to defend something that is indefensible.
What is the ‘Hockey Stick’ Debate About? (PDF) (Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Environmental Economist)
Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years
(Climate Research, Vol. 23, 89–110, January 2003)
- Willie Soon, Sallie Baliunas
Corrections to the Mann et al (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemisphere Average Temperature Series
(Energy & Environment, Volume 14, Number 6, pp. 751-771, November 2003)
- Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick
The M&M Critique of the MBH98 Northern Hemisphere Climate Index: Update and Implications
(Energy & Environment, Volume 16, Number 1, pp. 69-100, January 2005)
- Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick
Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, February 2005)
- Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick
"Their method, when tested on persistent red noise, nearly always produces a hockey stick shape..."
- Reply to comment by Huybers on "Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance"
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, October 2005)
- Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick
- Reply to comment by von Storch and Zorita on "Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance"
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, October 2005)
- Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick
Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data
(Nature 433, 613-6