NewsBusters readers are well aware of our contention that the press have adopted the 1992 strategy of making every economic report look like the world is coming to an end, and we'll all be in soup lines next year if the Democrat presidential candidate isn't inaugurated in January.
No finer example is available than Thursday's Associated Press article concerning February's very disappointing retail sales report. To be sure, store traffic was much worse than expected last month, and we are not trying to paint a rosy picture.
However, there are two truly disturbing elements in Martin Crutsinger's piece entitled "Retail Sales Plunge by 0.6 Percent" (h/t NBer Par for the Course):
- A 0.2 percent rise was depicted as "small," a 0.4 percent rise was "modest," but a 0.6 percent decline was a "plunge"
- In February, January's rise in retail sales was "surprisingly strong." Now, that same rise was depicted as "modest."
First thing's first (emphasis added):
Consumers, battered by plunging home prices and a credit crunch, stayed away from the malls in February, pushing retail sales down by a larger-than-expected amount. It was another worrisome sign that the country could be falling into a recession.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that retail sales fell by 0.6 percent last month, far worse than the small 0.2 percent increase that analysts had been expecting.
The weakness was widespread with sales of autos, furniture and appliances all down.
It marked the second time in the past three months that retail sales have taken a tumble. Sales had fallen by an even bigger 0.7 percent in December, the largest drop in six months, as the nation's retailers suffered through a dismal holiday shopping season. Sales posted a modest 0.4 percent gain in January.
Hmmm. So, 0.2 is small, 0.4 is modest, but 0.6 is a plunge? How does one go so quickly to a plunge?
Applying Crutsinger's logic to a real life example, if a $100 stock goes up 20 cents, that's a small rise. If it rallies by 40 cents, it's a modest increase. But, if it sells off by 60 cents, THAT'S a PLUNGE!
I get it, Marty.
Of course, maybe even more hysterical is how Crutsinger reported January's numbers when they were released on February 13 (emphasis added):
Retail Sales Post Surprising Rebound in January Following Dismal December
Shoppers put aside worries about the slumping economy to go to the malls and auto dealerships in January. That propelled retail sales to a surprising rebound following a dismal December.
The Commerce Department reported today that retail sales rose by 0.3 percent last month. Sales had fallen by 0.4 percent in December as retailers suffered through their worst Christmas shopping season in five years. The increase was led by strong demand for new cars and a big jump in sales at gasoline service stations, which reflected higher pump prices.
The January performance came as a surprise to analysts who had been forecasting a 0.3 percent decline for the month. However, the January rebound may not last given all the problems facing consumers from the steep slump in housing to job losses and a severe credit squeeze.
Hmmm. So, this was a surprising increase when he first reported it in February. But, now that same increase is just "modest."
Think Marty got the memo?
—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters.
















Editor at Large
Comments Policy
I hate story problems
March 13, 2008 - 21:29 ET by PamI love the topic, great catch, but story problems were my weakness..loved the picture though!
About that pic-
March 13, 2008 - 22:18 ET by R D HelmMy dad, a graduate of the Georgia Institute of Technology in both civil and mechanical engineering, always said that that darned (and that was not the word he used) "new math" was going to be the end of us all.
If we really do go into a recession, and I am now of the opinion that we probably are, I think it can accurately be called the MSM Inspired Recession of '08.
And they should be ashamed of themselves, as I have been adversely affected by the downturn.
Theme for Election '08: I want my mommy!
Democrat Math
March 13, 2008 - 22:42 ET by Blonde(1) Small + (1) Modest = (1) Plunge
Ooops....sorry...diffent signs, different meanings.
How typical.
These idiots couldn't balance a ledger if their lives depended on it.
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
A serious question...
March 13, 2008 - 23:03 ET by m4ster chief...from a non-accountant (to put it mildly): When they tally these numbers for a "month," do they regard a "month" as a unit standing alone; do they go by the number of days in a month, or what?
Would the fact that there are thirty-one days in some months, but only twenty-eight (twenty-nine this year, I think) days in February make any difference? In other words, had there been thirty or thirty-one days in February, would that make any difference in that 0.02 (or whatever it was)? Might another two days in the month have pushed the final figure up to "modest?"
Well, I've lost my train of thought anyway...lol.
M4
March 13, 2008 - 23:14 ET by BlondeWhen accountants work with a month...it is the month. It doesn't matter the "length" of the month.
In my business, we have "working days"...just like you would in the Navy. So, a 31 day month, with 5 Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday's would be far more expensive than a 31 day month with 5 Thursday, Friday & Saturday's. Does that make sense? Well, maybe the Navy wasn't a good analogy....but in my business, the first part of the week is FAR more active than the latter half.
Having said that, my point was that the lib's & dem's view the exact same number (and multiples thereof) from a purely political perspective. It's insane.
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
If I read your correct.
March 14, 2008 - 08:05 ET by danboIf I read your correct. With something as statistically insignificant as 0.6. Depending on the number of days in the month. Which days of the week. As if there are 4 or 5 saturdays in a month. etc. A decrease of 0.6% could in fact be an increase.
"There is a clear attempt to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition."
- Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Meteorology, MIT
Democrat math
March 14, 2008 - 00:48 ET by merlin61This is the same fuzzy math they are teaching our
children in school, because they want them to grow
up to be liberal Dems too. They're teaching
algebra and fractions to first graders who haven't
even got the concept of one plus two,etc.etc.
No wonder they are promoting recession.
January and February were exceedingly cold this
year, did anyone notice? People don't go
shopping in extremely cold weather, especially
when tax time is coming and they're still paying
off Christmas.
Numbers never lie
March 14, 2008 - 07:22 ET by ThisnThatDim math:
Welcome to MtTop, CO
Elevation: 6035
Pop: 254
Established: 1835
______________
Total: 8124
___________________________________
If you can read this, thank a teacher. If it is in English, thank a Soldier. - My barber
Liberal lingo
March 14, 2008 - 09:46 ET by dbo0.2 is small unless of course you're talking about global warming in which case 0.2 is catastrophic and the age of doom is upon us.
If you look at it, the
March 14, 2008 - 09:51 ET by mattmIf you look at it, the economy really started sucking right after the Dems took over Congress after the 2006 election...coincidence????
Start drilling ANWR, build more refineries, put up a few nuke power plants and repeal any onerous regulations, and whatever else sensible - like privatizing healthcare, education, and social insecurity - that you can think of, and this economy will turn around in heartbeat.
Fifty Years of Math 1957 - 2007 (in the USA)
March 14, 2008 - 10:16 ET by dvdaughtryGot this email from my mom today:
Evolution in teaching math since the 1950s:
1. Teaching Math In 1950s
A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production is 4/5 of the price. What is his profit ?
2. Teaching Math In 1960s
A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production is 4/5 of the price, or $80. What is his profit?
3. Teaching Math In 1970s
A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production is $80. Did he make a profit?
4. Teaching Math In 1980s
A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production is $80 and his profit is $20. Your assignment: Underline the number 20.
5. Teaching Math In 1990s
A logger cuts down a beautiful forest because he is selfish and inconsiderate and cares nothing for the habitat of animals or the preservation of our woodlands. He does this so he can make a profit of $20. What do you think of this way of making a living? Topic for class participation after answering the question: How did the birds and squirrels feel as the logger cut down their homes? (There are no wrong answers, and if you feel like crying, it's ok. )
6. Teaching Math In 2007
Un hachero vende una carretada de maderapara $100. El costo de la producciones es $80. Cuanto dinero ha hecho?
Media will see an improved economy
March 14, 2008 - 12:33 ET by Blogger Guy00001The moment there's a democrat in the White House, the media will suddenly see all that is good in the economy. The homeless will disappear. There will be no housing crisis. People will have jobs and be happy to see their hard-earned dollars being stolen by the government and given to the non-productive.
Lying with statistics
March 14, 2008 - 12:38 ET by Blogger Guy00001The media twist the numbers to promote their agenda.
When something fluctuates wildly, like temperature, the stock market, inches of rain, it's possible to search the numbers and find TWO POINTS that prove anything that you want to prove. You can prove large increases, small increases, large decreases, small decreases, the largest increase in 14.2 years (using 14.3 years would have produced a large decrease).
Mathematicians, help me explain this better!
It's Official. We're doomed says Reuters/Yahoo
March 14, 2008 - 13:31 ET by YahooWatcherhttp://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080314/usa_economy_feldstein.html?.v=1
There you have it. Reuters has found their guy that can trump all gloom and doom put out by others.