NYT Source: Paper ‘May Not Have Conveyed My Thoughts Precisely’

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On Tuesday, NewsBusters exposed the New York Times for using the death of a highly-regarded American scientist, Dr. Robert Jastrow, to advance global warming alarmism.

In response to my e-mail message concerning the matter, Dr. Albert Arking, the former colleague of Jastrow's quoted in the piece, stated, "The NY Times article came out of a long conversation (initiated by the writer, John Schwartz), and it may not have conveyed my thoughts precisely."

What follows is Arking's full answer to my query concerning this Times article, with emphasis added to highlight important points for the reader:

The NY Times article came out of a long conversation (initiated by the writer, John Schwartz), and it may not have conveyed my thoughts precisely. But it did, I believe, convey Jastrow's strong sense of responsibility to the public. He often said that since the public supports science, we owe them the time and effort to make the science understandable.

That specific quote you mentioned

""I tried to dissuade him on some issues," Dr. Arking said, recalling that Dr. Jastrow responded: "Yeah, you're probably right, but this is the way we have to put it. We have to convince people that this is not the catastrophe that people were making it out to be.""

refers to several discussions over the years with Jastrow on global warming.

Reread Schwartz's references to these conversations between Arking and Jastrow. Doesn't he strongly imply they occurred quite recently, and may have represented a change of heart by Jastrow:

Dr. Arking, a climate scientist at John Hopkins University who continued to visit his old mentor on a regular basis until two days before his death, recalled arguing the issue with Dr. Jastrow, finding him less and less willing to make any concessions in their discussions.

"I tried to dissuade him on some issues," Dr. Arking said, recalling that Dr. Jastrow responded: "Yeah, you're probably right, but this is the way we have to put it. We have to convince people that this is not the catastrophe that people were making it out to be."

Yet, according to Arking, that quote "refers to several discussions over the years with Jastrow on global warming." In fact, some of these happened two decades ago:

When he was writing the first Marshall Institue [sic] report around 1990 ("Perspectives on Climate ..." or similar title) I did try to dissuade him on two things: (1) using frequency analysis of past temperature change to project future temperatures, and (2) stating that with the new computers coming out in the next five years we should be able to more precisely predict future climate. He admitted my main points---(1) that unless one knows the physics behind the frequency analysis, future projection is meaningless, and (2) that our limitations in forecasting climate change was not computing power, but our limited understanding of the physics. In the end, I had some influence in his toning down those parts of the report, but not eliminating them. (For example, the report suggested that the sun was now brighter than ususal [sic], having brought us out of "the little ice age" of several centuries ago, and was likely to decrease in future decades.) He often pointed out that the public was being fed nonsense by alarmists, and he needed to balance the record.

Once again, was this what was presented in the Times piece, or, instead, was it implied that these discussions were fairly recent, and that Arking had been trying to dissuade Jastrow from being skeptical about man's role in global warming?

Rather than making potentially erroneous intimations, maybe Schwartz should have informed readers how Arking really feels about this subject if indeed it was going to be raised:

My own views at the time (expressed in an Op-Ed piece in the NY Times in 1991 and in a Senate Committee hearing chaired by Al Gore) was that increasing greenhouse gases (GHG) would contribute to climate warming, but other factors (e.g., solar variability) are also at play. Furthermore, our understanding of feedbacks was too limited to let us predict changes in response to external forcing by anything better than a factor of 3.

Since then, of course, global temperatures have continued to go up, and research has provided some insight into the relative roles of solar and GHG forcing. I had given Jastrow copies of recent papers that tried to estimate how much of past temperature change can be attributed to solar variations and how much to GHG. I tried to convince him that if the earth can respond to solar variations, then basic physics requires that it also respond to GHG variations---one controls input energy, the other output. Dr. Jastrow never considered GHG to be a predominant factor, past or present, but he did agree that GHG would contribute to warming, pointing to it as possibly beneficial if solar luminosity should decrease, as it most likely did at times in the past.

I do have strong views about our use of fossil fuels, but not because of the scary scenarios that people like Al Gore publicize. (Most of that stuff---e.g., half of Florida disappearing, etc.---is plain nonsense, and he never mentions that more people die from cold than heat, that we could save more polar bears by restricting hunting than by stopping global warming, etc.) We should cut down on fossil fuels because it makes us and the rest of the world dependent on hostile countries, and it is a likely a source of funding for terrorism. Furthermore, fossil fuels, especially crude oil, will continue to rise in price because reserves are finite and demand for energy is increasing. However, the best way to lessen dependence on fossil fuels in the long run---and it is the long run that counts, because global warming is a gradual process---is to develop new technology, not by forcing the American public to pay other countries to burn the fuel for them. The Kyoto plan would take away dollars from devloped [sic] countries that could otherwise be used to fund new technology. Some policy decisions that are made in haste---e.g., subsidizing and mandating use of ethanol---can have bad consequences for the economy, and could actually add to GHG emissions, the opposite of the intended effect.

Sadly, these opinions weren't included in the Times piece, nor were these:

To summarize, I believe the global warming we have experienced in the last few decades is real, and most likely due to increasing GHG, but I am skeptical about outlandish claims that have little or no scientific basis. (Ocean levels rose about 8 inches in the last century, and are likely to rise about 12 inches in the present century, but that is small commpared [sic] to the 5-10 feet rise and fall of tides that occurs daily; adding 12 inches to dikes over a century is not difficult.) But I believe it important for our economy and security to develop new technology---both new sources of energy and new techniques for distributing and using energy more efficiently.

Interesting points all, wouldn't you agree?

What readers should take from this is not just how poorly Arking's sentiments concerning this matter were conveyed by the Times, but also how thoughtful and non-alarmist he is with regard to global warming.

Let's understand that he is probably a skeptical believer inasmuch as he sees GHGs - which include carbon dioxide, but BY NO MEANS exclusively! - as "likely" impacting planetary temperatures, but is "skeptical about outlandish claims that have little or no scientific basis."

In the end, if media representatives were honest and impartial concerning this issue, Americans might find that many scientists around the world either share Arking's reasoned views concerning global warming, or some reasonable facsimile thereof.

Furthermore, if such was regularly conveyed by press members instead of the inflammatory hyperbole we're constantly bombarded with, maybe our politicians could have a more rational debate about this issue, and discuss legislation more in keeping with the scientific realities of the matter as opposed to unwarranted alarmism.

Or is that asking too much?

—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters. Follow him at Facebook and Twitter.


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It must be s.o.p. for

It must be s.o.p. for newspapers to misrepresent what they gather in reporting.

About 6 months ago an issue advocacy group I was speaking for was covered in my local paper (medium sized city). I made 4 particular points and one side-point.  Guess which point the paper covered...

The MSM has one ethical standard: Anything goes, if it supports the agenda.

Journalism is a rare commodity.

Right, GHG and CO2 are

Right, GHG and CO2 are "bad." But their role in "global warming" is so incredibly miniscule so that we really shouldn't care about it and make policy from it. That point about polar bears really drove home that point to me!

Delicious work, Noel!

The Rocky Mountain Collegian: Illustrating Idiocy

Ignorance

Ignorance is bliss for the "liberals". Nothing in depth. No thinking required. Western philosophy is based on skepticism and "doubt". Mankind has thrived using the scientific method, a technique which often takes decades, even centuries. The great thinkers of the world humbly search for truth for many lifetimes. The likes of Algore and the other charlatans are a joke to thinking people. Yet our young are being indoctrinated in superficiality. Our "universities" are bastions of ignorance. Our media is replete with air-heads. You have to wonder where we will be in the future. Sad.

NEVER,NEVER trust a "liberal"

Why do these people even talk to the media

My response to the media is to hang up on them or no habla se, but put a microphone in front of some normal person and they become a self inflated egomaniac who will not shut up for 3 hours yacking away.

If one says, No comment and hangs up, that ends the problem. The Doc with the mouth, has a good income, good home, people in his life, respect..........all a person needs to sustain life here, so be content and shut your mouth.

If you have things to say, log onto Newsbusters, get a handle Dr. Blowhard, and type away to your heart's content. Otherwise shut up and stop hurting the family of a person who just died.

 

*HIC IACET ARTORIVS REX QVONDAM REXQVE FVTVRVS

one more thing to Doc Blowhard

Hey Doc, ethanol is produced by taking starch out of corn and making it into alcohol........it TAKES NOTHING AWAY FROM THE FOOD PRODUCT which can still be fed to people or livestock.

The fermentation actually makes it more digestable, so it IMPROVES it!

Furthermore, adding wealth to rural economies WHO SPEND THAT MONEY ON MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS like trucks, tractors, appliances HELPS THE ENTIRE US ECONOMY.

Ethanol actually has a detergent in it which cleans engines making cars LAST LONGER FOR CONSUMERS.

In conclusion, there is no such thing as green house gases as the were made up by NASA to try and explaing why Venus was hot............Venus is HOT BECAUSE IT IS BY THE SUN. If GHG were able to collect and store heat Jupiter would be an inferno and it is not.

No wonder the Times picked on you, you have a communist mentality and no common sense.

 

*HIC IACET ARTORIVS REX QVONDAM REXQVE FVTVRVS

People can "be fed" ethanol by-products, Lame Cherry? Oh, yummy.

Yes, a small percentage of distillers grain, as the byproduct is called, is mixed in with livestock feed, but, somehow, I don't think it's going to catch on with people....except maybe with the worlds's poorest, who need corn for food and who have few alternative choices. 

Creating ethanol uses up most of the food value.  A bushel of corn, or 56 pounds, makes about 17 pounds of distillers grain. That means most of the corn's food value is destroyed, and it's not the 1 for 1 exchange you imply. 

In addition, corn for ethanol has been replacing other food crops that are deeper rooted and that require less water and fertilizer. This depletes already threatened aquifiers, and the additional soil and fertilizer run-off have created a huge, growing dead zone in the Gulf.

Rain forests are being cut down to grow palm for palm oil for ethanol.

Your "detergent in ethanol cleans engines" argument is silly, since gasoline also contains detergent.

The source of the "added wealth" you champion is primarily from the governmental subsidies given to ethanol producers. If ethanol is such a good deal, why does it need to be heavily subsidized with our tax dollars?

Speaking of "wealth", ethanol has caused a spike in the cost of both corn and wheat, adversely affecting the poorest of the world.

Ethanol is a stupid concept and a disaster on all levels.

IPCC

Folks, Dr. Arking is one of the scientists counted in the "IPCC's 2,500 scientists can't be wrong" consensus. Do his comments sound like anything you've heard from the MSM on this issue?

Sounds a lot more like Bjorn Lomborg than Al Gore to me.

ML

ML,

Exactly. And, as I pointed out in my first piece on this subject, Arking was part of a highly skeptical paper published in 2001 that was highly critical of the IPCC.

Let's understand that MANY folks that are and/or have been part of the IPCC have come out strongly against the organization's tactics. Sadly, media don't like to report that! ns

Truth?

Noel:

You mean Newspapers tell the "truth" in a such a way as to create hysteria and low and behold, drive readership and sell advertising?  You mean the NYT et al's M.O. is not to tell the truth as as to reflect the true meaning of the story?  You've turned my world upside down. (tongue in cheek)

It's too bad somebody like Dr. Arking is running the IPCC.  I don't agree with everything in his last quote, but it is a reasonable stance and one from which sane debate/policy could be based on.  

Great post. 

There are 2 types of politicians.  Those who know AGW is a sham and stupid ones.

AGW

Hi, I’m a newbie to posting here, but have been an avid reader of Newsbusters for about 6 months.

Lately, I’ve been wondering if man might not have contributed to global warming.

In the 1970s, emerging environmentalist groups were convincing the public that a new ice wage was pending and would wipe out most of humanity by the end of the 20th century. Their activism led to the fledgling EPA. Flourocarbons, like spray can propellants and Freon 12, were banned. Power plants had extensive controls on smoke and NOx emissions placed on them. Cars got all the new smog controls to eliminate emissions, along with a new refrigerant. Those efforts took an engine that was 95-96% efficient all the way to today’s efficiency of 97-98% and barred emerging economies from making their own refrigerants.

Politicians touted how they were more concerned than their opponents, to get votes. Businesses and manufactures jumped on the bandwagon to prove how they were more concerned than their competitors, to attract the environmentally-conscious consumers. And this response spread over the whole world.

We ended up eliminating a lot of those components in the atmosphere that would reflect sunlight, letting the Earth get warmer and avoid the ice age…

Jump forward 30-40 years. The same environmentalist groups are now clamoring for new government action to counter warming. It is one of the basic tenets of every politician to proclaim how green they are, so they can get votes. Businesses and manufacturers are falling over one another to prove they are the ‘greenest’ so they can attract the kids who have been indoctrinated about the evils of global warming. And so it goes, on and on.

Dr. Arking referred to feedback. Basically, if you tweak something you don’t really understand back and forth, you end up tweaking more and more, on a shorter and shorter time scale, amplifying the error. You end up with something like microphone squeal. I doubt microphone squeal of the climate would be very pleasant.

So, what should we do about global warming? My vote is we do nothing, just adapt to the cycles. Avoid the hubris that we can actually do anything to improve or control the weather on a planetary scale. Oh, and stop using weather cycles as political footballs and marketing tools.

Global Warming is a natural

Global Warming is a natural process we can't control.

The Rocky Mountain Collegian: Illustrating Idiocy