Unusual Winds Caused Arctic Ice Melts, Not Global Warming

Photo of Noel Sheppard.
By Noel Sheppard | October 5, 2007 - 10:36 ET

Assume for a moment that a new study by NASA proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that manmade global warming was indeed responsible for the recent ice melts in the Arctic. Think media would have reported it?

In reality, that's a bit of a trick question, for in the past several weeks, television newscasts, papers, and magazines have been filled with hysterical assertions about decreasing Arctic ice levels destined to cause imminent flooding to coastal regions around the world.

As such, it certainly was no surprise when NASA released a report Monday claiming "the rapid decline in winter perennial ice the past two years was caused by unusual winds," virtually no media outlets shared the information with the citizenry, and those that did still blamed the melting ice on - you guessed it - global warming.

The largely boycotted announcement out of NASA stated no such thing (emphasis added):

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A team led by Son Nghiem of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., studied trends in Arctic perennial ice cover by combining data from NASA's Quick Scatterometer (QuikScat) satellite with a computing model based on observations of sea ice drift from the International Arctic Buoy Programme. QuikScat can identify and map different classes of sea ice, including older, thicker perennial ice and younger, thinner seasonal ice.

[...]

Nghiem said the rapid decline in winter perennial ice the past two years was caused by unusual winds. "Unusual atmospheric conditions set up wind patterns that compressed the sea ice, loaded it into the Transpolar Drift Stream and then sped its flow out of the Arctic," he said. When that sea ice reached lower latitudes, it rapidly melted in the warmer waters.

"The winds causing this trend in ice reduction were set up by an unusual pattern of atmospheric pressure that began at the beginning of this century," Nghiem said.

Hmmm. So, unusual winds pushed ice south into warmer waters causing the above average melt rates. That should be newsworthy, right?

Well, it clearly wasn't, as from a print perspective, only the New York Times and the Christian Science Monitor felt this matter to be at all important; no other major dailies thought this announcement to be something the public would care about.

Yet, even those papers skewed the study to make the results support the global warming myth. For instance, the Times' Andrew Revkin wrote Tuesday:

  • The pace of change has far exceeded what had been estimated by almost all the simulations used to envision how the Arctic will respond to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases linked to global warming.
  • Proponents of cuts in greenhouse gases cited the meltdown as proof that human activities are propelling a slide toward climate calamity
  • Still, many of those scientists said they were becoming convinced that the system is heading toward a new, more watery state, and that human-caused global warming is playing a significant role.

The Monitor also used this report to advance global warming hysteria (emphasis added):

"While a number of natural factors have certainly contributed to the overall decline ... the effects of greenhouse warming are coming through loud and clear," notes Mark Serreze, a senior scientist at the Snow and Ice Data Center.

Maybe even more disappointing, the broadcast networks, which had been all over this supposed "record" Arctic ice melt a few weeks ago, completely ignored this announcement.

And, leading the pack for the most disgraceful performance regarding this matter was ABC's Sam Champion who did a story concerning Arctic ice on Tuesday's "Good Morning America" that absurdly omitted this NASA announcement Monday:

Now, in August, we showed you those record levels of the melt of the sea ice. The new information out from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, and those are the people who watch the ice all around the world, is that September levels are even lower and they also set a record. On this side of the screen, we're gonna show you generally an average from 1979 when we first started taking pictures with a satellite, all the way to about 2000. You can see the ice stays just about the same even though there is some melting there and almost runs all the way up to the Bering Strait.

This is a picture of the 2007 levels. Now take a look at the empty gap that goes all the way around here. That's what we're talking about. We're talking about the unprecedented melt of all that entire area. Now remember, that important sea ice is there. We believe it kind of regulates the global weather patterns and there's lots of it than ever before.

Out at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, their quote is that every summer, we melt more ice and it's just not getting replaced in the colder winter months because of the unusual amount of warm air that's still around the North Pole.

Nice job, Sam. Thanks for sharing.

As for the cable networks, only CNN thought this issue warranted air time, though not much. When "the most trusted name in news" finally got around to mentioning this study two days after the announcement, Jonathan Mann offered more fear than fact on Wednesday's "Your World Today":

This is big news. Literally news you can measure in miles and tons. News that's trouble for the environment. The Arctic has hit another milestone, or more accurately, you could say it's melted it. Less ice than ever measured before.

[...]

Look at this graph created by NASA. At first, the total of Arctic ice goes up and down year to year. But long-term, the total year-round ice has been going down ever since NASA started studying it by satellite. At first 10 percent per decade, then a whole lot faster.

And 2005 was the worst year, the previous record until just a few weeks ago when NASA saw ice was down by nearly 25 percent. It just about drops off the chart. That is a big, big thaw. The effect is to open up a million square miles or 2.5 million square kilometers of open water in a little less than 30 years. That's an area bigger than Greenland, up in the north, right next door.

To be fair, not all of it is melting. Some of it is actually moving, which is a little weird, too. Wind is pushing huge amounts of it to the west, and it is melting off there. That is still bad news though, because with less ice now, next year's thaw will probably be even bigger. Something to watch and worry about. Back to you.

That's all, folks: one sentence about this issue from all the cable news networks.

Yet, what might be even more disturbing about press coverage concerning polar ice is not just how media ignored something occurring in the Arctic that offerred a contrary explanation of recent melts, but also how what's happening in the Antarctic is similarly boycotted.

As Anthony Watts reported Wednesday:

The Arctic is almost as warm now as it was seventy years ago. Unsurprisingly, Arctic ice has diminished. But, as Polyakov et al.show, the long-term changes are "generally statistically insignificant". But there's more ice in Antarctica now. It seems that points more to a natural, cyclical variation on a global scale when one pole diminishes while another gains.

In fact, when you add up the total square kilometers of ice in the Arctic and the Antarctic, it is only five percent below normal.

Yep. Five percent.

As such, not only are there other explanations for what's happening to Arctic ice than the hysterical claims by media, the total picture at both poles is vastly less dire than what the press are leading the public to believe.

Why might that be?

—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters.

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Taking bets on whether the

Taking bets on whether the "unusual winds" were cause by global warming.........

Ah, but Noel, what could

Ah, but Noel, what could have caused these unusual winds but global warming caused by Karl Rove's insidious weather machine? 

Ah, mother, great minds, yes? 

"A communist is someone who reads Marx.  An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx."  Ronald Reagan

That Darn Karl Rove

Now that he's not working for Bush anymore, does Karl Rove charge by the hour for that Karl Rove Weather Machine(tm) of his?

Maybe we at Newsbusters can all chip in and rent it to keep a rain cloud over Keith Olberman's head for a couple of weeks? ;-)

Here's a nice animation of

Here's a nice animation of the Arctic ice over the years. http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/images/20070822_oldice.gif

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity

Here is just the Winter Ice

Arctic - Arctic Winter Ice 1979-2005 (Animation) (NASA)

This is important to show people who have only seen the video that shows just the SUMMER minimum extent.

The Anti "Man-Made" Global Warming Resource

"The pace of change has far

"The pace of change has far exceeded what had been estimated by almost all the simulations..."  This tells me that: 1) There were some simulations (read "computer models") that estimated this melt fairly accurately, but that Mr. Revkin cherry-picked the models that showed the least amount of melt, then had a simulated knicker attack over the actual rate. 2) The starting assumptions in the models were incorrect.  3)  The variables in the model were weighted incorrectly, or there were other important variables that were ignored.  4) The Chaos in the system was over- or under-estimated.

"Still, many of those scientists said they were becoming convinced that the system is headed toward a new, more watery state..."  The system has been headed toward a "more watery state" for the last 18,000 years.  What's new about that?  I have to wonder if "many of those same scientists" were convinced that the earth was headed toward a new, more icy state back in the 1970s.

"...less ice than ever measured before."  Oh, really?  And, how long has this measuring been going on?  Twenty, thirty years?  And, how long has climate been changing on this planet?  How long did the last ice age last?  How long was the inter-glacial period between the last two ice ages?

If this melt is "unprecedented", how did Raold Amundsen manage to sail the northwest passage at the beginning of the twentieth century?  If this climate is unprecedented, how did the vikings dig the mines that are just now being uncovered by ice in Greenland?  If this climate is unprecedented, how did those same vikings grow food crops and dairy herds in Greenland?  Hmmm?   

"A communist is someone who reads Marx.  An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx."  Ronald Reagan

" "The pace of change has

"
"The pace of change has far exceeded what had been estimated by almost all the simulations..." This
tells me that: 1) There were some simulations (read "computer models")
that estimated this melt fairly accurately, but that Mr. Revkin
cherry-picked the models that showed the least amount of melt, then had
a simulated knicker attack over the actual rate. 2) The
starting assumptions in the models were incorrect. 3) The variables
in the model were weighted incorrectly, or there were other important
variables that were ignored. 4) The Chaos in the system was over- or
under-estimated."

 

I would be suprised if this "story" had any research done at all. I don't think you understand how much of this AGW hooey is nothing but regurgitated propaganda. The reporters have talked themselves into biblical belief on this, and many other subjects that experts continually dismiss as phantasy.

Is there no time span that's too short for these guys?

"The Arctic has hit another milestone, or more accurately, you could say it's melted it. Less ice than ever measured before."

Of course they couldn't possibly be bothered to point out that "ever measured before" probably doesn't even comprise the last 30 years and any measurements taken over that time period are meaningless.

So...NASA proves AGW caused by hot air.

The cause of the Arctic ice melting is all the global warming hysterics yelling that we are causing the earth to heat up?

If we can get these idiots to shut up, global warming goes away?

 



The day that "politician" became a career choice is the day we started losing the Republic. Let's get it back! Fred08.com

Flooding

Where is the flooding?  if more ice than ever before has melted, where is the flooding?

FYI a strange thing about water - frozen water has a greater volume than liquid water. 

Since government is coercion, politics is largely the exercise of deception regarding the intended use of coercion - George Orwell

 Why might that

 Why might that be?

 Anthropogenic global warming the Democrats path to Socialism

High pressure ridges

High pressure ridges..

Understanding that high pressure causes heat (compression of air causes friction, etc. - and wind caused by a high pressure ridge creates more friction - and then more heat).

So the question is: Does high pressure cause global warming, or does global warming cause high pressure? 

(;~>

Here is the caus-effect path...

High preasure causes whine, whine causes media coverage, media coverage leads to consensus, therefore high preasure causes consensus.



The day that "politician" became a career choice is the day we started losing the Republic. Let's get it back! Fred08.com

Wind is caused by Solar

Wind is caused by Solar heating, not CO2. If we didn't have the Solar Heating and Coriolis Forces we wouldn't have any weather to complain about.

http://csep10.phys.u...

 Changes in wind patterns

 Changes in wind patterns and atmospheric pressures have already been blamed on humans by the AGW doomsters.

I long for the good old

I long for the good old days shortly after we landed on the Moon. Every change in the weather, hot or cold was because we messed with the Moon. There was near universal agreement.

If there were no "green house effect" ( from water vapor, dust, trace gasses), the earth's temperatures would swing 125+ degress a day. That would cause more wind, not less.

 

I recently visited the Solar Telescope at Sunspot, NM

This URL (upper left) doesn't fully show how much bigger the Sun is than Earth, because it only shows a cool new look at a sunspot via what they call adaptive optics, but the sunspot itself is very small compared to the entire Sun itself. I find that people are surprised by these relative sizes when they see them firsthand.

Inside the National Solar Observatory public museum area is an interesting exhibit. It features a model of the Sun and various relative-sizes to choose-from of the Earth, with buttons in front of them. I'm proud to say I guessed right the first time (it's the second-smallest Earth-choice offered, truly tiny by comparison).
JMR

Rally online with fans of Dr. Ron Paul.

NP, after the Russians

NP, after the Russians launched sputnik, every change in the weather was because we were trespassing into God's domain. Before that weather change was caused by witches or God's (or the gods') disfavor because of something we did. Shoot, Man has been responsible for weather and climate change, heating or cooling since before recorded history. Except now all those old "reasons" sound rather silly. For that matter, so do the present set of "reasons".

"A communist is someone who reads Marx. An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx." Ronald Reagan

It's unusually cold here

These winds might explain why it's been unusually cold for the past several weeks where I live.

'The Arctic is almost as

'The Arctic is almost as warm now as it was seventy years ago. '

So that would make it the Dust Bowl era. Which was followed by a 30 year cooling period. Just like every warm-cold cycle of the last 200 years.

If the Artic experienced a warm period during the 30s then why wasn't the East Coast inundated by higher water levels then? 

 

 

That's because the Arctic

That's because the Arctic ice is floating, thus displacing its weight in water. If it were to melt the sea would not rise. The ice piled up on top of Greenland is another story. Should that melt it could possibly cause the sea to rise assuming it was not just deposited as snow somewhere else on the Earth.

Look what I found in a Peer-Reviewed Journal

Scary Arctic Ice Loss? Blame the Wind
(Science, Vol. 307. no. 5707, p. 203, 14 January 2005)
- Richard A. Kerr

 

The Anti "Man-Made" Global Warming Resource

loss of ice

Loss of artic ice is a win win for the world, but don't tell any one. Less ice means that they can ship though the north west passage over panama saving over 10000 miles of travel. It is hard to point this out and tell the terrors of AGW all in the same breath.