
Since NASA's James Hansen finally released computer codes related to how climate data are collected and adjusted, anthropogenic global warming skeptics around the world have been waiting to see what a scientific examination of this information would produce.
On Monday, Canada's Steve McIntyre, who himself debunked Michael Mann's ridiculous "Hockey Stick" theory as well as identified Hansen's Y2K bug, released information identifying that Hansen recently made additional changes to climate data akin to how companies like Enron used creative accounting to exaggerate earnings and defraud investors.
As published at Climate Audit moments ago (emphasis added, h/t Anthony Watts):
Shortly after, NASA published their source code on Sept 7, we started noticing puzzling discrepancies in the new data set.
[...]
On Sept 15, Jerry Brennan observed that the NASA U.S. temperature history had changed and that 1998 was now co-leader atop the U.S. leaderboard.
By this time, we'd figured out exactly what Hansen had done: they'd switched from using the SHAP version - which had been what they'd used for the past decade or so - to the FILNET version. The impact at Detroit Lakes was relatively large - which was why we'd noticed it, but in the network as a whole the impact of the change was to increase the trend slightly - enough obviously to make a difference between 1934 and 1998 - even though this supposedly was of no interest to anyone.
In very simplistic terms, SHAP and FILNET are computer programs used by climatologists to assist in the collation and interpretation of climate data. Each program does so differently, and, therefore, yields different final results.
As such, by suddenly switching from SHAP - which NASA had been using for decades - to FILNET, NASA was able to once again claim that 1998 and 1934 are now tied for the warmest years on record in the U.S. This despite Hansen's claim in August that climate record changes precipitated by McIntyre's Y2K bug find were irrelevant.
As McIntyre pointed out, what's now happening at NASA is akin to companies changing from Generally Accepting Accounting Principles (GAAP) to what produced a lot of faulty earnings in the late '90s and early '00s, Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA):
Now you may say that this is "science" and accounting principles don't apply. And my response would be that I'd expect GAAP principles to be a minimum standard for the type of climate statistics being carried out by NASA. Even if NASA climate statisticians are unaware of GAAP per se, they should be adhering to the principles. Sharp practice is sharp practice, however it is gussied up.
Furthermore, what is doubly concerning is the idea that Hansen can just change formats whenever he wants to suit his agenda:
Companies cannot change accounting procedures on a whim. Auditors will not permit companies to change methods merely to enhance reported earnings. And if a company changed accounting procedures without any disclosure, it would be viewed very seriously by regulatory agencies - whether or not the company said that it "mattered". If the change from SHAP to FILNET accounting didn't "matter", then Hansen shouldn't have done it. If it did matter, he still shouldn't have done it right now just when he was archiving source code for the first time - and to do so without either formal disclosure or a re-statement of prior results simply boggles the imagination.
Of course, when Enron and other companies were found to be cooking their books at the expense of investors, this was front page, headline news for months.
Do you think these revelations by McIntyre will be reported by media any time soon?
While you ponder, Surface Stations' Anthony Watts accurately depicted the gravity of this issue that somehow will elude press outlets coast to coast (emphasis added, thanks to NBer dscott for reminding me):
My first indication that something changed came from surfacestations.org volunteer Chris Dunn who wrote to me complaining that one of the sites he'd recently surveyed, Walhalla, SC had been greatly adjusted at GISS for no good reason that he could ascertain, since the site is pristine by climate monitoring standards, and has not gone through any significant changes in the past, and has been operated at the same location (by the same family) since 1916. He wondered why NASA would have to adjust the data for a "good" station. The way I view it, shouldn't good data stand on it's own? That was September 7th. He was using data from NASA GISS published on 8/28.
So he continued to look at the data, and the site. The [sic] on Sept 11th he noticed a change when he downloaded the data again. Something had changed, the data was different. Not only the adjusted data but the "raw" data too.
Watts was pointing out how suddenly, as a result of these "accounting" changes, the data from a weather station deemed sound by GISS standards was altered for no apparent reason. He elaborated:
Whether this was accidental or intentional I cannot say, but it certainly does not look good coming on the heels of NASA GISS's most recent issue of a mistake causing a revision of our temperature history on August 8th. We deserve better accounting than this when so much hinges on this data.
I agree, Anthony. Unfortunately, it appears that only people who read conservative blogs are going to find out about this, because it is a metaphysical certitude major media outlets will ignore this issue.
How disgraceful.
—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters. Follow him at Facebook and Twitter.




















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Comments Policy
Biased Measurments
September 17, 2007 - 13:40 ET by allanfIt is hard for me to understand how rates of change of .1C/decade can be solidly computed from the weather station data. Each instrument has an inherent margin of error. Then you have localized effects (e.g. concrete vs. grass, air conditioners). I'm not sure that you can assume a constant bias, so that if you substract two readings, the bias goes away. (e.g a thermometer always reads a tenth of a degree more than the actual temperature.)
You then have to average out different time series, since not all weather stations produce the same number of readings. Finally you don't have complete coverage of the entire land mass of the world, so you have to make assumptions about how to smooth out between weather stations.
I'd really love to see some real arguments that you can conflate all this and still get a margin of error with in plus or minus a tenth of a degree per decade.
Remember in weather all readings (tests) are not independent of one another. That doesn't mean you cannot apply statistical methods to attempt to estimate errors. It does mean you should be very careful.
If it were that accurate, all computations of temperature growth rate would agree.
I'd really like to see some mathermatical estimation of errors for these readings.
True, however, when 70% of
September 17, 2007 - 14:01 ET by dscottTrue, however, when 70% of the weather stations that have been surveyed so far (33% of the total) fall under the heading of 2 to 5 degree C margin of error due to their compromised location no amount of statistical massaging of the numbers will yield any result of value down to the tenth of any degree. http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/ Sept 12th. The accuracy of any statistic is only good to the margin of error, so if your claiming the average temp of the US was say 54.5 F, then that at minimum is plus or minus 2 C or 3.6 F, that's a 4 C or 7.1F swing! Anybody who seriously thinks a trend of .6 C can determine direction of temperature is fooling themselves.
dscott's postulate: The degree to which someone exaggerates or deceives is inversely proportional to the merit of the advocated position.
yep.... even more
September 17, 2007 - 14:09 ET by mbuelyep....
even more telling is that when you look at a graph of the corrected data, there has been no noticeable temperature shift in the 20th century!
Facts vs. Religion
September 17, 2007 - 13:36 ET by ThisnThatThe GAAP standards deal with facts that can be checked by independent agencies (accountants). Global Warming Data is Revelation which must be accepted on faith. And the GW preachers are simply moving from Cathederal to Temple to Shrine, and it really doesn't matter about which verse you are quoting -- SHAP 2.15 or FILNET 7.06 -- it's the faith that matters to true believers.
Don't expect the MSM true believers to notice anything askew here.
___________________________________
If you can read this, thank a teacher. If it is in English, thank a Soldier. - My barber
enron - what a fantastic
September 17, 2007 - 14:04 ET by TruthMongerenron - what a fantastic comparison...
Cooking the Data Books
September 17, 2007 - 14:12 ET by Jack BauerThat accounts for it.
From now on I shall refer to this "gentleman" as NASA's
Cute huh?
JB
September 17, 2007 - 14:21 ET by Noel SheppardJB,
Nice. When I use that in the future without giving you credit, you'll sense my gratitude none the less, correct? :-) ns
ns -- it will be
September 17, 2007 - 14:23 ET by Jack Bauerns -- it will be bitter/sweet.
Actually, this is far more
September 17, 2007 - 14:21 ET by dscottActually, this is far more serious than what Noel is pointing out, he understating the situation: http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/
My first indication that something changed came from surfacestations.org volunteer Chris Dunn who wrote to me complaining that one of the sites he'd recently surveyed, Walhalla, SC had been greatly adjusted at GISS for no good reason that he could ascertain, since the site is pristine by climate monitoring standards, and has not gone through any significant changes in the past, and has been operated at the same location (by the same family) since 1916. He wondered why NASA would have to adjust the data for a "good" station. The way I view it, shouldn't good data stand on it's own? That was September 7th. He was using data from NASA GISS published on 8/28.
This points to the degree of cooking the books as it were, the only data that should be adjusted is the compromised weather stations showing the Urban Heat Island effect, that's the point of adjusting in the first place! This now begs the question, does Hansen really know which temp. monitoring stations are compromised and by how much? Why does Anthony Watts and crew have to survey each and every of the 1221 stations? http://www.surfacestations.org/ Hansen and his buddies are cooking all the numbers. Now Al Gore can curse his creation of the internet.
dscott's postulate: The degree to which someone exaggerates or deceives is inversely proportional to the merit of the advocated position.
Dan
September 17, 2007 - 14:42 ET by Noel SheppardDan,
You are correct sir. Re-read the article. ns
Never let it be said that
September 17, 2007 - 15:09 ET by dscottNever let it be said that Noel exagerates, he understates.
dscott's postulate: The degree to which someone exaggerates or deceives is inversely proportional to the merit of the advocated position.
O.K. - Now - the debate is over.
September 17, 2007 - 14:48 ET by mattmAPGW is a crock.
Predicted This
September 17, 2007 - 15:06 ET by Lame CherryI predicted this on Newsbusters when this data was released that Hansen was cooking the data and had done so knowingly and it would take researchers time to sift through it all to find the "shifts" which are literal lies.
President Bush needs to do three things. First FIRE HANSEN, Second put the DOJ onto him for criminal tampering of data and Third, hire that old climatologist out of Wisconsin that Gaylen McKinley was picking on this summer to rectify this situation.
*HIC IACET ARTORIVS REX QVONDAM REXQVE FVTVRVS
Sadly, President Bush
September 17, 2007 - 15:08 ET by Free StinkerSadly, President Bush won't fire this guy. Bush is too busy "being nice"... :-(
. . . and no matter how horrific the terrorist attack, it's conducted by losers. Winners don't need to hijack airplanes. Winners have an Air Force. --P.J. O'Rourke
It nearly takes an act of
September 17, 2007 - 21:58 ET by MikeBIt nearly takes an act of Congress to fire a Civil Servant. And, with the Congress we now have, this particular firing won't happen. Instead, Bush could transfer Hansen's buttocks to some weather station in Alaska, somewhere north of the Arctic circle. Hansen could work on his sun tan this winter with all that global warming taking place up there.
"A communist is someone who reads Marx. An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx." Ronald Reagan
Does anyone have the
September 17, 2007 - 15:23 ET by Dan The Man 2Does anyone have the sources for the rest of the data collected from other sites in the world? I continually hear from APGW believers that the USA is an anomoly and the dtata collected around the world is a better indicator? Is anyone looking at that? Man I gotta have some ammo.
Nuke em til they glow then shoot em in the dark.
Dan the Man 2
September 17, 2007 - 15:27 ET by Free StinkerI'm not sure if this is what you had in mind, but here goes:
You could go to the
September 17, 2007 - 16:15 ET by dscottYou could go to the climateaudit site and ask Steve M. He seems to refer to this stuff and given he has debunked the Mann hockey stick, I would assume he could point you in the right direction. The alternative is to go to the Hadley Centre site.
dscott's postulate: The degree to which someone exaggerates or deceives is inversely proportional to the merit of the advocated position.
Steve has a "Where's Waldo"
September 17, 2007 - 19:17 ET by danboSteve has a "Where's Waldo" thread. Looking for the rest of the world with reliable data thjat shows warming. As Hanson states the US doesn't matter as the ROW (Rest of World) shows warming. It's kind of funny. He has it narrowed down to Asia and Europe. And we were told the MWP didn't count as it wasn't world wide affecting only Europe, North America and Asia. (So far more than todays warming.)
"There is a clear attempt to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition."
- Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Meteorology, MIT
Noel. At the rate it's
September 17, 2007 - 19:04 ET by danboNoel. At the rate it's changing. I suspect that 1998 will again be the warmest year in a week or two. Then 2007 will be the warmest in 4 weeks.
"There is a clear attempt to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition."
- Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Meteorology, MIT
When you can't even get the
September 17, 2007 - 19:25 ET by ckc1227When you can't even get the numbers of the recent past right, why should anyone buy into the numerical predictions of the future, especially 100 years or more into the future?
"I continually hear from APGW believers that the USA is an anomoly and
the dtata collected around the world is a better indicator?"
Which doesn't make sense. As the number one CO2 emitter for so many years, and currently number two, does it pass the smell test that we would be an exception to the global warming rule? Of course not. If Gore and his fellow cultists were correct, the global temperature would be skyrocketing right along with the skyrocketing increases in CO2. For some reason, that isn't happening. I wonder why that is? Probably just another "anomoly".
Where are the statesmen?
September 19, 2007 - 21:05 ET by Ralph Hansen Ph. D.I've spent that past couple days traipsing the halls of Congress. I've spoken with several members and close to a dozen staffers who understand climate change fears are pure globaloney. Sadly, James Hansen is tolerated here as if he were just a weird uncle or the crackpot next door. But the disinformation being spewed by GISS, and the radical global warming (anti-energy) policies proposed as a result, threaten the very fabric of America and our standing in the world.
Americans need to understand that our country's economy runs on hydrocarbons. Coal, oil and natural gas provide about 85% of the energy we use to produce electricity, provide our transportation, run our factories and heat and cool our homes.
The American public needs to understand and accept the fact that we are dependent on fossil fuels, and will continue to be for the forseeable future. There is no magic carbon capture and storage technology that will make CO2 go away. There is research underway (wasting billions in tax dollars) to develop carbon capture and storage technology, but it is more than a decade away and will be prohibitively expensive.
Quite simply the fact is this: Any laws enacted by Congress that cap or reduce carbon dioxide emissions will damage America's economy, reduce American prosperity and have no measurable impact on the global climate.
Why is it that all the politicians in Washington are too gutless or too politically correct to stand up for their convictions and present these facts to the American people?
- Consensus is what you look for when you don’t have the facts -