
When climate change activists Sheryl Crow and Laurie David went on their "Stop Global Warming College Tour" last spring, media sycophants followed their every move reporting their exploits on almost a daily basis.
With that in mind, if a serious, scientific error were discovered in the global warming children's book co-authored by David, shouldn't that be newsworthy as well?
As you ponder, Robert Ferguson of the Science and Public Policy Institute published his findings Thursday concerning a material error in "The Down-to-Earth Guide to Global Warming" which media seem destined to ignore for the benefit of the climate change movement (emphasis added throughout):
On page 18 of Laurie David's new children's global warming book, there is a glaring scientific error.
[...]
The more the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the higher the temperature climbed. The less carbon dioxide, the more the temperature fell. You can see this relationship for yourself by looking at the graph:
As compared to the false allegations being made by media accusing President Bush and Gen. David Petraeus of cooking the books concerning what's going on in Iraq, David was verifiably fudging the numbers:
What really makes their graph "amazing" is that it's dead wrong. In order to contrive a visual representation for their false central claim that CO2 controls temperature change, David and co-author Cambria Gordon present unsuspecting children with an altered temperature and CO2 graph that falsely reverses the relationship found in the scientific literature.
The actual temperature curve in the chart was switched with the actual CO2 curve. That is, the authors mislabeled the blue curve as temperature and mislabeled the red curve as CO2 concentration. The real data show that the red curve represents the temperature changes over geological time, followed (lagged) by changes in CO2 concentrations represented by the blue curve. Thus, children tracing the properly labeled curves from right to left (from past to present) can easily see the real, science-based relationship (particularly clear in the interval between 500,000 and 150,000 years ago).
Here's the corrected chart:
Will media hold David's feet to the fire concerning this factual misrepresentation?
I for one am not holding my breath.
—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters.





















Editor at Large
Comments Policy
The "CO2 lags
September 13, 2007 - 12:41 ET by RottenHamThe "CO2 lags temperature" argument is a standard global warming denier myth.
Climate myths: Ice cores show CO2 increases lag behind temperature rises, disproving the link to global warming
Ice cores from Antarctica show that at the end of recent ice ages, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere usually started to rise only after temperatures had begun to climb. There is uncertainty about the timings, partly because the air trapped in the cores is younger than the ice, but it appears the lags might sometimes have been 800 years or more.
This proves that rising CO2 was not the trigger that caused the initial warming at the end of these ice ages – but no climate scientist has ever made this claim. It certainly does not challenge the idea that more CO2 heats the planet.
Laurie David certainly should correct the graph and she should also explain how deniers misinterpret the data and try to mislead people.
You're too funny
September 13, 2007 - 12:46 ET by mattmYou've been reading too many erroneous kid's books.
RH
September 13, 2007 - 13:04 ET by Noel SheppardRH,
Referring to me or anybody else here as a "denier" because we disagree with you is offensive and insulting. Stop it now or you will be banned. There will not be a second warning.
In case you can't figure it out, the proper phrase for the masses of people who don't agree with your view on this issue is skeptic, or, if you are British, sceptic. You won't be told again. ns
I trust that you'll
September 13, 2007 - 13:18 ET by RottenHamI trust that you'll similarly police anyone here who calls me a "socialist," "alarmist," or any other derogatory name, right?
Will you post an updated version of your article that corrects your misinterpretation of the CO2/temperature lag?
Socialist?
September 13, 2007 - 13:24 ET by azholmesHow is "Socialist" derogatory?
Are you really willing to bet your life that socialism will work (this time)?
Are you really willing to
September 13, 2007 - 13:34 ET by RottenHamWho's talking about socialism? I thought we were talking about the CO2/temperature lag.
You are
September 13, 2007 - 14:15 ET by azholmesSee your comment directly above...
Are you really willing to bet your life that socialism will work (this time)?
I trust that you'll
September 13, 2007 - 13:29 ET by MightyMouthI trust that you'll similarly police anyone here who calls me a "socialist," "alarmist," or any other derogatory name, right?
Not speaking for Noel, but I suspect he is referring to "un-justified" derogatory names.
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
How is calling someone that
September 13, 2007 - 13:31 ET by TheGingermanHow is calling someone that DENIES the existence of global warming a DENIER, unjustifiable?
I don't think anyone is
September 13, 2007 - 13:39 ET by MightyMouthI don't think anyone is "denying" Global Warming, they are just "skeptical" about the anthropogenic impact.
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
Saying global warming does
September 13, 2007 - 13:41 ET by TheGingermanSaying global warming does not exist is, by defnition, denying GW
How about saying that
September 13, 2007 - 13:47 ET by Jack BauerHow about saying that mankind has no affect on a three billion year old climate.
Does that either deny or confirm fluctuations in the planet's "climate?"
1 result for:
September 13, 2007 - 13:49 ET by TheGingerman1 result for: Deny]
Merriam-Webster's Dictionary of Law - Cite This Source
Main Entry: de·ny
Function: transitive verb
Inflected Forms: de·nied; de·ny·ing
1 : to declare untrue <a party…shall admit or deny the averments —Federal Rules of Civil Procedure Rule 8(b)> —compare AVOID
2 : to refuse to grant <denied the motion for a new trial>
Are you being deliberately
September 13, 2007 - 14:33 ET by Jack BauerAre you being deliberately dense?
I'll repeat, how does the hypothosis that mankind as a species has no affect on the Earth's climate either deny or confirm any natural fluctuations in a climate that existed for a few billion years before the genus homo sapien sapien appeared?
Heh
September 13, 2007 - 22:36 ET by PopularTechJack,
It is like they are preprogrammed with responses from one of those sites "how to speak to a climate denier". I bet they have this option:
If you cannot find a response from this list call them a denier again but this time define 'denier' from the dictionary. They cannot answer questions not on the list which is why you get the circular dismissive arguments repetitively.
The Anti "Man-Made" Global Warming Resource
It is like they are
September 14, 2007 - 09:50 ET by RottenHam"Skeptical" arguments are so unoriginal that they are easily catalogued. These same fallacies linger year after year so it's no surprise that someone has taken the time to provide a boilerplate debunking.
What question do you want answered?
Skeptical about AGW not GW,
September 13, 2007 - 13:48 ET by MightyMouthSkeptical about AGW not GW, please pay closer attention. There is a distinction.
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
GM
September 13, 2007 - 13:55 ET by Noel SheppardGM,
If I say one plus one doesn't equal two, I am denying a fact. Folks who don't believe man is responsible for warming the planet are disagreeing with an as yet unproven hypothesis. Regardless of the supposed "consensus," no scientist has yet to prove that man is responsible for the relatively slight warming of the planet in the past century.
As such, calling a skeptic a denier is insulting, for it suggests we're debating the existence of something factual. Regardless of your views on this subject, and what you believe, AGW has not yet been proven as fact.
Of course, if you think I'm wrong, and can prove it is a fact, why not do so here, and make yourself $100,000. Alas, be advised that up to this point, not one of the people on your side of this debate has sent proof to Milloy qualifying for his prize.
Of course, that's not surprising, as folks like Gore refuse to debate any of the people on my side concerning this matter. Does it bother you that the leading voice espousing AGW refuses to debate anyone on the issue?
Frankly, if folks on my side were challenged to a debate and refused, I'd be questioning their veracity on the subject. But, that's just me. ns
NS
September 13, 2007 - 14:01 ET by TheGingermanNS,
I apologize if I came off as confrontational. That was not my intent.
I understand where you're coming from, I just think in light of many of the other names that get thrown about around here, denier is easily one of the most tame and shouldn't be grounds for banning.
By your logic woudn't you have to agree that it's offensive to call those that support AGW, alarmists?
You yourself have repeatedly called these people alarmists. What's the difference?
GM
September 13, 2007 - 14:10 ET by Noel SheppardGM,
Well, alarmist is defined as "a person who tends to raise alarms, esp. without sufficient reason, as by exaggerating dangers or prophesying calamities."
With that in mind, since AGW is indeed an unproven hypothesis, and the calamities being forecast by folks like Al Gore are themselves hypothetical stemming from unproven climate models, he is indeed an alarmist, as is anyone espousing similar calamities.
Make sense?
By contrast, "denier" has an extremely negative connotation, as most recently it has been used for folks who deny the Holocaust occurred. I'm sorry if I would prefer not being linked to such lunatics. Fair enough? ns
With that in mind, since
September 13, 2007 - 14:14 ET by RottenHamNo sale. AGW has been proven to such a degree that it's not seriously debated in professional scientific circles anymore. Taking the consensus as a given is not evidence of alarmism. Furthermore, if you really think the science is so uncertain, then you must admit the possiblity that people like Gore are UNDERSTATING the bad effects and are, therefore, not "alarmist" at all. Your use of the term "alarmist" assumes a greater knowledge of future events than you could possibly have.
And where is AGW proven?
September 13, 2007 - 14:51 ET by Dan The Man 2And where is AGW proven? There are many holes in teh AGW, one taht comes to mind is teh measuring techniques being used and the recent flap over measuring stations placement. Then we come to teh fact taht none has won the challenge yet and gotten the 100K prize.
Nuke em til they glow then shoot em in the dark.
There are many holes in
September 13, 2007 - 14:56 ET by RottenHamThat cuts both ways. If you're going to argue that the measurements are wrong, that means we could have warmed even more than is currently claimed. Not all doubt cuts your way.
The problem with the challenge isn't part 1; it's part 2. Nobody can prove what the costs of anything will be in 2100.
Exactly
September 13, 2007 - 21:21 ET by TocanoThat cuts both ways. If you're going to argue that the measurements
are wrong, that means we could have warmed even more than is currently
claimed. Not all doubt cuts your way.
Nobody can prove what the costs of anything will be in 2100.
That's exactly what we're saying. We're skeptical. Since nothing is proven, we are asking questions about 1) Is the warming measured accurate? 2) Are we even the ones causing the warming and 3) Would the future impacts of warming be good or bad? and 4) If bad, how bad?
But the other side of the debate have concluded as a fact that not only is warming happening, it's because of us, and it's going to get worse and we'll all suffer horribly because of it. Then their next logical fallacy is to assume that based on their first conclusion, we must spend potentially trillions of dollars and pass draconian legislation in order to stop an approaching disaster.
Our complaint is with the double standard about this theory: We merely questioning (yet associated with Holocost deniers); them pounding the table claiming fact and calling for the incrimination of those of us that question it.
Also,
September 13, 2007 - 15:03 ET by azholmesThere's that little problem with the other planets in the solar system. Seems their climates are changing also, with no help from humans.
Let the hand-waving begin...
Are you really willing to bet your life that socialism will work (this time)?
http://environment.newscient
September 13, 2007 - 15:06 ET by RottenHamhttp://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11642
Thanks...
September 13, 2007 - 15:54 ET by azholmesIt was getting warm in here!
Are you really willing to bet your life that socialism will work (this time)?
I guess so. However,
September 13, 2007 - 14:23 ET by TheGingermanI guess so.
However, the negative connotation of denier does not change the meaning of the word.
To deny is to state that something is untrue. This is what those that don't believe in AGW are doing. So I still think it's fair to call them deniers, the same way I think it's fair for you to call the others, alarmists.
Either way, sorry for the nitpicking. It's not that big of a deal :)
I will adhere to your ruling in the future.
There comes a point where
September 13, 2007 - 13:42 ET by RottenHamThere comes a point where the evidence is so strong that skepticism is no longer appropriate. The majority of the professional climate science community passed that line long ago. Those who continue to cling to their "skepticism" do so for ideological, not scientific, reasons.
Wrong. There is never a
September 13, 2007 - 13:45 ET by Jack BauerWrong. There is never a point when scientists should cease to be skeptical. Skepticism is the default position of science.
There's a difference between
September 13, 2007 - 13:51 ET by RottenHamThere's a difference between reasonable and unreasonable skepticism. Sadly, much global warming "skepticism" is based on a standard collection of factual and conceptual errors as illustrated in Noel Sheppard's lastest post here. Those are not a rational basis for skepticism.
There's a difference
September 13, 2007 - 14:12 ET by MightyMouthThere's a difference between reasonable and unreasonable skepticism.
ROFLMAO!
Looks like RottingHam is the "decider" of what is "reasonable" and "unreasonable". TDF!
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
Wrong. Skepticism is the
September 13, 2007 - 14:21 ET by Jack BauerWrong. Skepticism is the default position of the scientist.
There's a difference between
September 13, 2007 - 14:38 ET by KarmaThere's a difference between reasonable and unreasonable belief in AGW.
Sadly, much (anthropogic) global warming "belief" is based on a standard
collection of factual and conceptual errors as illustrated in Al Gore's lastest film. Those are not a rational basis for AGW "belief".
Scientists are still very
September 13, 2007 - 15:14 ET by rwestScientists are still very skeptical of the causes of global warming, and thousands are doing skeptical research on it as we speak. The public debate in no way resembles the scientific debate. The politicians, pundits, and other non-scientists are the ones without doubt.
Scientists are still very
September 13, 2007 - 15:21 ET by RottenHamThe AR4 clearly says that modern global warming is driven by humans. There is no plausible natural explanation for it that has withstood scrutiny in the scientific literature. It's not the Sun; it's not volcanoes; it's not periodicities in the Earth's orbit.
Liberals are still very
September 13, 2007 - 15:54 ET by JungusSo, scientists do not have a plausible natural explination. Too bad for you they don't have a plausible human explination either. Was it chlorophloralcarbons? CO2? Bovine gas? If you have the research, collect the $100,000 from JunkScience.com.
Too bad for you the only science that I have seen on this (outside of the tin-foil variety) shows that volcanoes, the sun, and yes even the Earth's orbit have individually more of an impact on Earth climate than all of mankind.
So, will you believe your You-Tube videos or your lying eyes?
So, scientists do not
September 13, 2007 - 16:00 ET by RottenHamActually, they do. Human activities emit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases which trap heat and warm the Earth. The rise in greenhouse gas concentrations, the increase in temperatures, the pattern of warming, and the greenhouse gas inventories are all consistent with this explanation.
To show that those things are driving modern global warming, you must demonstrate that there is some measureable change in their values over the relevant time interval. Too bad for you there isn't. There is no upward solar irradiance trend since around 1970 yet temperatures continue to climb. There is no increase in volcanism nor has the Earth lurched in its orbit. Failure to provide evidence for these alternative explanations is why scientists almost universally reject them.
Indeed.
September 13, 2007 - 16:21 ET by JungusYes, humans to kick out carbon and I did mention that. However you did not tell me that we create more of a greenhouse effect (well, actually a warmer climate) than the other explinations. And as to the most significant correlation, that would be solar radience cycles that unlike the carbon dioxide in the graph reliably precedes a hotter climate. Much like longer days in summer.
No climb in solar radience? So what, if the radience is already above normal that would still drive temperatures up. But lets face it, if my ideas on why the climate is warming fall flat based on lack of evidence. So do yours.
Universally? Is that like a consensus?
However you did not tell
September 13, 2007 - 16:30 ET by RottenHamI did. I said there is no upward trend in solar irradiance today nor are volcanoes more active nor has the Earth lurched in its orbit. Therefore, we are enhancing the greenhouse effect and warming the planet. Not the Sun, not volcanoes.
There is no upward trend in solar irradiance today so you can't blame the Sun.
No. It would drive them up until the irradiance trend leveled off. That's why solar irradiance changes cannot explain warming since then.
No, they don't. The evidence is on my side, not yours.
Yes.
Did did didn't did.
September 13, 2007 - 17:12 ET by JungusI did.
Really? All you said is there is no change in volcanoes, solar stuff etc. You did not show how that non-climbing level of effect is any less than man's influence. You didn't even address it other than to say "I did".
There is no upward trend in solar irradiance today so you can't blame the Sun. ...
No. It would drive them up until the irradiance trend leveled off.
The first part is no good without the second. But now you must prove to me that the irradiance trend has leveled off. And you didn't.
The evidence is on my side, not yours.
Not so fast! There is evidence of man's climate warming affect yes, but there is also the evidence of man's climate cooling affect in smog and particulates. But if you can't proove that the sun is not still raising temperatures (and again you havn't done that yet) then how can you prove that the sun isn't a bigger contributer to global warming than mankind? Don't use "because I said so". All I have to do is cite the mideval warming period to prove that the sun has out done mankind before in global warming. Unless you can deny that...
Yes.
Yeah, I agree too.
Really? All you said is
September 13, 2007 - 17:40 ET by RottenHamHow you think an unvarying climate forcing can cause warming is unclear. For the Sun, check out Solanki's 2004 paper:
For volcanoes, the US Geological Survey says they're a non-factor:
I don't know that I can make it any clearer than that. It isn't the Sun and it isn't volcanoes.
It's not me saying so; it's the evidence.
You'd have to demonstrate 1) the MWP was caused by the Sun; and 2) the MWP was global. Both of those are debatable.
Very good.
September 13, 2007 - 18:15 ET by JungusYou have cited 2 sites that I would consider reasonable. I will pick through thier information to make sure that my points are there too.
From the Max Planck Society: However, researchers at the MPS have shown that the Sun can be
responsible for, at most, only a small part of the warming over the
last 20-30 years.
This can still be greater than human activities however it does say: Although the changes in the two values tend to follow each other for
roughly the first 120 years, the Earth’s temperature has risen
dramatically in the last 30 years while the solar brightness has not
appreciably increased in this time. I want to double check that brightness = infrared or heat radiation. Going on: The number of sunspots varies over an 11-year activity
period, which in turn is subject to longer term variations. For
example, in the second half of the 17th century, there were hardly any
sunspots at all. Uh oh, this opens up that we may still be in a higher than normal range. These data show clearly that the Sun is in a state of unusually high activity, for about the last 60 years. So this showes that there could be multiple cycles here, both short and long operating at the same time.
Beaten by your own source? Another period of enhanced solar activity, but with
substantially fewer sunspots than now, occurred in the Middle Ages from
1100 to 1250. At that time, a warm period reigned over the Earth, as
the Vikings established flourishing settlements in Greenland. It looks like my warm period was global. Thanks for the link!
Here is Rotton's moneyshot: "Just how large this role is, must still be
investigated, since, according to our latest knowledge on the
variations of the solar magnetic field, the significant increase in the
Earth’s temperature since 1980 is indeed to be ascribed to the
greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide," says Prof. Sami K.
Solanki, solar physicist and director at the Max Planck Institute for
Solar System Research. The 1980 is hitting me as strange, the physicist does blame CO2, but at 1/2 of a degree of celcius warming since 1950 (would it be fair to start with 1/4 C since 1975, k-thks)? This seams a little speedy to lay global change by humans on less temperature change than .25C. And now my nitpick to you: Ascribed. It means lacking anything definitive throwing in a likely possibility. ( ASCRIBE suggests an inferring or conjecturing of cause http://www.m-w.com/d...)
As for volcanoes, they do kick out other gasses than CO2. The USGS only showed CO2 ratios.
Congratulations!! You have finally shown that global warming is less likely to be done by the sun.
Uh oh, this opens up that
September 13, 2007 - 20:48 ET by RottenHamIf the solar irradiance trend leveled off decades ago, it cannot be responsible for warming today. Solanki says that explicitly.
Hardly. Modern warming is inconsistent with solar heating. A hotter Sun would tend to warm the stratosphere. However, the stratosphere has cooled. This is consistent with greenhouse warming, not solar. That's one more reason Solanki says it's not the Sun.
Not so fast. Here's another link for you: http://environment.n...
The magnitude and pattern of warming is consistent with manmade greenhouse gases and no other plausible natural cause.
If you want to argue that volcanoes are more active today than they were 150 years ago, I'll gladly consider whatever evidence you care to provide.
Thanks!
Modern global warming? Like
September 13, 2007 - 16:00 ET by Clear thinkerModern global warming? Like my values, I will stick to good old fashion global warming. You know, the 4 billion year old variety.
Get Email updates from Fred http://socialnet.imwithfred.com/email_alert_july_26.html
Times have changed. Unlike
September 13, 2007 - 16:02 ET by RottenHamTimes have changed. Unlike with "old" global warming, there are now six billion people digging up old carbon and pumping it into the atmosphere. This has never happened before in the history of the planet so old explanations don't cut it.
So what you are saying
September 13, 2007 - 16:11 ET by Clear thinkerSo what you are saying is.... the earth's population is just being "progressive", right?
Get Email updates from Fred http://socialnet.imwithfred.com/email_alert_july_26.html
Think positively - choose life!
September 13, 2007 - 16:19 ET by TruthMongerThe 21st century will develop technologies that allow 20 or 30 billion people to live here just fine...
But also remember we will be colonizing space - and probably also meet some aliens that can provide long-distance travel technology to other Earth-type planets...
Glad Galileo didn't
September 13, 2007 - 14:21 ET by dvdaughtryGlad Galileo didn't subcribe to that.
Well, for once, the rich white man is in control. --Montgomery Burns
DVD
September 13, 2007 - 14:24 ET by Noel SheppardDVD,
So am I! These folks who believe scientific facts are determined by a show of hands are truly amazing. Frankly, I'm not sure why anyone bothers responding to such a person. ns
It's a good thing nobody
September 13, 2007 - 15:09 ET by RottenHamIt's a good thing nobody here judges scientific facts that way. They're judged on the evidence. When that evidence is examined, "skeptics" lose.
For me, Noel, I'm just suspicious....
September 13, 2007 - 15:15 ET by RJ"RottenHam?" "cleverpig?" Both pushing AGW?
Coincidence? I don't think so....has anyone seen them at the same time?
Or, maybe, DU, Kos, or MoveOn just farrowed them in the same litter.... ;^>
Not speaking for Noel,
September 13, 2007 - 13:35 ET by RottenHamI see. You can call me names but I can't call you names. Is that how conservatives define fairness?
Since when is calling
September 13, 2007 - 13:43 ET by Jack BauerSince when is calling someone a socialist, name calling?
Former Brit PM, Tony Blair, calls himself a "socialist."
The current British Prime Minister Gordon Brown calls himself a socialist. The British Labor Party describes itself as a socialist party.
You know very well that the term "denier" is meant to evoke those who deny that the attempted genocide and holocaust of Jews during WW2 ever happened.
And therfore to equate those who do not buy the theory that mankind is repsonsible for so-called global warming with those vile people who deny six million Jews perished in the concentration camps.
Since when is calling
September 13, 2007 - 13:48 ET by RottenHamThey call themselves that. There's a difference between labeling yourself and being labeled by others.
If you find this so objectionable, why do you then try to equate those who accept the weight of the evidence and the scientific consensus with socialists?
I know you majored in
September 13, 2007 - 13:57 ET by Jack BauerI know you majored in Pretzel Logic, but as it was you who called "socialist" a "derogatory" term it seems only fair to point out that it is not considered to be in general parlance.
For instance, I have just checked my OED and it confirms my suspicion. It is not listed as derogatory, unlike such disgusting trems such as "nigger," "spic," and "dago."
There it is.
September 13, 2007 - 16:00 ET by JungusIf you find this so objectionable, why do you then try to equate those
who accept the weight of the evidence and the scientific consensus with
socialists?
So you do equate those who choose to question the accuracy of theories with holocaust denyers.
The "difference" RottenHam is
September 13, 2007 - 13:59 ET by RJthat the word "denier" has been used, historically, for "holocaust deniers." Every time the word is used against others it has an ugly connotation that goes beyond the immediate debate.
But I suspect you and the Warmers already understand that....which is why you like the taunt so much.
You seem to want to define
September 13, 2007 - 13:50 ET by MightyMouthYou seem to want to define things according to your own agenda, regardless of what is posted here. So, take it however you see fit. We already know that you will as a liberal.
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
Please tell me when can we
September 13, 2007 - 13:45 ET by RottenHamPlease tell me when can we expect to see a corrected version of your article.
Thanks.
Uh... what part needs
September 13, 2007 - 14:11 ET by MightyMouthUh... what part needs correcting? Noel pointed out that the chart is wrong and you agreed.
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
The whole part about CO2
September 13, 2007 - 14:16 ET by RottenHamThe whole part about CO2 lagging temperature as evidence that CO2 cannot raise temperature is incorrect.
You mean it's in dispute.
September 13, 2007 - 14:23 ET by MightyMouthYou mean it's in dispute. Your link says that the lag times are "uncertain". That would mean it's still "debateable", right?
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
It means that one cannot say
September 13, 2007 - 14:26 ET by RottenHamIt means that one cannot say with great certainty that CO2 lags temperature. However, that does not in any way imply that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas and that it can't raise global temperatures.
Noel didn't say CO2 is "not
September 13, 2007 - 14:29 ET by MightyMouthNoel didn't say CO2 is "not a greenhouse gas" or that "it can't raise global temperatures" . Retract your request for correction at once.
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
If you follow the Noel's
September 13, 2007 - 14:39 ET by RottenHamIf you follow the Noel's link, the article says:
That's incorrect. CO2 can cause temperature changes. If Noel wants to distance himself from this incorrect claim, I will rescind my demand.
But in context with the
September 13, 2007 - 14:56 ET by MightyMouthBut in context with the climate records CO2 HAS lagged temperature changes, even though the lag times are uncertain. The historical data are correct and in no way challanges your contention that "CO2 can cause temperature changes". All it is saying is that temperature changes historically preceed CO2 increases. Not vice a versa as the chart originally claimed. You are now (and have been throughout the thread) being intellectually dishonest.
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
Yet, challenging the
September 13, 2007 - 14:59 ET by RottenHamYet, challenging the contention that "CO2 can cause temperature changes" is exactly how this data is being misused. That's the part I want Noel to correct. To use the CO2/temperature lag as evidence against modern AGW--as "skeptics do--is intellectually dishonest.
Your bone of contention is
September 13, 2007 - 21:28 ET by KhyrisYour bone of contention is a grammatical affectation.
Try this sentence instead:
"The man came home after his wife was shot, and could not have shot his wife."
The sentence does NOT imply that under no circumstances can any man ever shoot his wife. It is contextual to THESE circumstances.
WHEN CO2 lags temperature as indicated in the referenced papers, it can not have CAUSED the initial temperature jump.
He never said "CO2 can NEVER cause temperature increases."
His logic is sound, your semantics is not.
WHEN CO2 lags
September 13, 2007 - 21:30 ET by RottenHamTrue. It could not have caused the INITIAL temperature jump. It reinforced it.
That's the point he's trying to make. He's trying to argue that because CO2 lagged temperature, CO2 can't be responsible for temperature increases.
His logic is deeply flawed and his argument is deceptive so it should surprise no one that the media doesn't spread it.
so if someone argues
September 13, 2007 - 21:40 ET bythat causes do not follow effects the swine claims their logic is "deeply flawed"
There's something piled deep here --- pig crap perhaps?
Support our Troops
I'm curious how you're
September 13, 2007 - 21:51 ET by KhyrisI'm curious how you're privy to the internals of Noel's mind so that you know with some authority the "point he's trying to make."
When I take the words at face value, he's never said anything more complicated than effect follows cause.
All the inferences of hidden scientific claims denying the physics of CO2 affecting temperature appear to be of your own invention.
No offense intended, I just don't read into the "motivation" that you seem to, because it's not germane to a factual discussion of the following point:
Just because humans produce some amount of CO2 is no reason to assume that it is any kind of significant cause of the current warming trend. It is equally probable the current trend could have occurred without any humans present. We have no model (a planet with no humans) to compare it to, so to assert that our impact is accurately measurable is unscientific at best, fallacious at worst.
100ppm, that's what we are talking about?
September 13, 2007 - 16:03 ET by metroxGiven: 280ppm is what CO2 levels were pre-1900.
Given: 380ppm (up to 386ppm) 'current' CO2 levels
(ref: http://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_mm_mlo.dat)
Now, are you saying that a rise of .0001 (100ppm) is responsible for a ~1C rise in surface temperatures (remember: the upper layers of the atmosphere are not warming, just the lowest layer - remembering that CO2 is a well mixed gas).
On the face of it, that seems absurd that so little (100ppm) can cause such a significant rise.
If this is true, at there is little doubt it is not true as a single carbon atom hardly has that much 'heat absorbing and retention power', then just how do you explain the Earth's past when CO2 was many times higher but not the surface temperature?
As for what is causing surface temperature increases? For the most part it is the heat island effect, nothing more, it is significant to be sure but is unrelated to CO2 levels. Temperatures measured since 1900 forward that are today still apart from the heat islands have recorded no perceivable temperature change.
As for the Artic summer melt, we have only had 'eyes' on it since 1979. We have no complete record before that. There were occasional ventures but nothing as complete as satellite surveys. For all we know the Artic summer melt was going on in the 1930s and was slowed by the build up in pollution from the 1940s-1970s and once that "pollution shield" was gone (remember, surface temps were on the decline during that period) the Artic summer melt resumed and only now has 'recovered' what was begun back then.
As for the Eskimos not having a word for Robin (the bird), I bet they did last time things warmed (1000+ years ago), and that name was lost (since they do not hard a large written record, can't blame them for dropping less often used parts of their language) during the intervening cool periods.
Now, are you saying that
September 13, 2007 - 16:15 ET by RottenHamNot entirely. Methane contributes as do land-use changes. Stratospheric cooling is entirely consistent with greenhouse warming and is strong evidence that warming is not driven by the Sun.
The state of the climate at any one time is the sum of warming and cooling forcings. In the past, there may have been higher levels of CO2 but lower temperatures if there was a significant cooling forcing counteracting the CO2-induced warming.
Incorrect. The UHI has been studied extensively and found to be statistically insignificant.
Absolutely false. From IPCC TAR Ch 2:
Rural stations show warming, too.
Hey there mightmouth - good catch!
September 13, 2007 - 14:40 ET by Dee BunkYou completely slam dunked him in your previous post and he can't even admit it. Your few words just proved the whole problem. Don't hold your breath waiting for a retraction from this guy - he's in chanting mode - nothing gets through.
Taking your advice Dee
September 13, 2007 - 14:58 ET by MightyMouthLeaving this guy to his ramblings...
MM out!!
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
It seems to me that AlGore
September 13, 2007 - 13:25 ET by bassndudeIt seems to me that AlGore let his parrot out of his cage. I keep hearing the squawking. Using environment.newscientist.com as a reference source is asinine. Anyone that has read that site knows it it a bias site promoting the GW myth. The fact is that the ice core samples taken at Vostok show that the CO2 levels follows temp increases. Any body that sayes diffrent is not looking at the data correctly, or they are lying. This can be verified by reviewing the data released by the Vostok ice core team. Your hocky stick graph is flawed. This was admitted. The medeval warm period was left out completely. The code was only recently released, and it better perform the same way for everyone else or it was altered before release. If the data show diffrent, then we know the data released was falsified. That is lying.
You get that cracker yet?
Save a SeAL, club a liberal!!
The fact is that the ice
September 13, 2007 - 13:32 ET by RottenHamThe data isn't in dispute. It's your interpretation of it that's wrong.
Not really. If you read the NAS report, it says no such thing.
Nice try ham, but your
September 13, 2007 - 15:41 ET by bassndudeNice try ham, but your information on the hockystick is some dated isint it? My interpertation of the data is fine. Unless your dyslexic, you cant read it any other way. Which, judging from your posts, you may very well be.
Save a SeAL, club a liberal!!
Denier vs Propagandist
September 13, 2007 - 13:43 ET by kbworkmanLabelling anyone who disagrees with you in this way is a standard propaganda technique. It's nice to see the propagandists identifiying themselves to clearly.
I would rather look at all the data and draw my own conclusions that look at the data the supports only one conclucsion and following the herd.
Any lemming can do that.
Labelling anyone who
September 13, 2007 - 13:53 ET by RottenHamThis whole site is propaganda.
I knew it! There's the ad
September 13, 2007 - 13:59 ET by Ruths husband BenI knew it! There's the ad hominem attack! Gosh, they are sooooo obvious. Good job. Why are you still around? Didn't you get banished to Kos or Huff or some other troll hell on the internet?
I knew it! There's the ad
September 13, 2007 - 14:04 ET by RottenHamDo you know what ad hominem means?
Do you know what ad nauseum
September 13, 2007 - 14:06 ET by Jack BauerDo you know what ad nauseum means? Apart from you, that is.
Indeed I do. It is an
September 13, 2007 - 14:14 ET by Ruths husband BenIndeed I do. It is an irrelevent argument where one attacks the person rather than his/her premise. In this case, you dismiss the entire website as "propaganda". This is, of course, meant as an insult and is therefore an ad hominem attack.
There are only so many ways to debate from a losing position. Since it is apparent to everyone here that you had such a position, it was only necessary to wait for you to resort to one of them.
Another good one is the misdirect. You did that when you asked if he believed in evolution. What does that have to do with AGW? Nothing. A red herring. No one bit.
Finally, there is the misquoting or misreprenting your opponents premise. You have done that numerous times this morning/afternoon.
There may be other troll techniques (I admit that I am fairly new to troll watching, but I am willing to learn). Now I don't want you to get the impression that I disapprove of you using these. They are all you have and it is quite fun watching you get pummelled. Keep at it and, who knows, you might be remembered here for some time.
Indeed I do. It is an
September 13, 2007 - 14:23 ET by RottenHam"Jack Bauer" says the same thing a few posts down. Why don't you go wag your finger at him?
That's funny. Global warming "skepticism" is itself a losing position. Global warming "skeptics" have been wrong about everything from the MSU satellite measurements of tropospheric temperatures to solar heating and ocean cooling. That's why you're reduced to hiding out in sites like this. You certainly won't be found in serious scientific circles. I'm just here having fun.
You weren't paying attention. If you review that thread, you'll see that he went off on a tangent about organic produce and pesticides before I made the evolution comment.
Every time somebody calls me a socialist, they're misrepresenting my premise. I've yet to see you say one word about that.
I'm having fun, too.
It would be disingenuous
September 13, 2007 - 14:40 ET by Ruths husband BenIt would be disingenuous for me to come to your defense, wouldn't you think?
I just erased about five minutes of typing, because I realized that it would not affect any appreciable change in your attitude. So, lets just leave it at this:
I am glad you are at least having fun here. Have a nice day.
Right, Ben. By discounting the entire site, hammy
September 13, 2007 - 14:06 ET by RJbelieves anything he reads here is not to be taken seriously.
It isn't. Basically, this
September 13, 2007 - 14:28 ET by RottenHamIt isn't. Basically, this site is a big whine fest. "Oh, the liberal media is oppressing me!" Nobody hangs on their crosses better than conservatives.
So, there you go, hammy
September 13, 2007 - 14:33 ET by RJYou've given yourself permission to say anything you want, regardless of truth. Of course, your disregard for the truth was identified immediately upon your appearance.
Nobody hangs on their crosses better than conservatives.
September 13, 2007 - 14:41 ET by MightyMouthOther than entitlement socialists liberals.
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
And thank Him that his
September 13, 2007 - 14:45 ET by dvdaughtryAnd thank Him that his grace covers all of us.
Well, for once, the rich white man is in control. --Montgomery Burns
JC - whatta guy:)!
September 13, 2007 - 14:50 ET by TruthMongerJC - whatta guy:)!
All political websites are propaganda. So what?
September 13, 2007 - 14:03 ET by Jack BauerAll political websites are propaganda.
So you point is moot and irrelevant as that's a given. From the DNC website down.
This happens to be a conservative (and libertarian) oriented website where those of a conservative persuasion gather to exchange ideas and pass comments.
That's also called freedom of speech.
Exactly. So charges of
September 13, 2007 - 14:07 ET by RottenHamExactly. So charges of propagandism here are rather silly.
the chart's bass-akwards anyway...
September 13, 2007 - 12:48 ET by wizardjrOn any 'normal' timeline, the past is to the left and the present or future is to the right. We read left-to-right, so the data is normally presented with increases going 'up' as data moves to the right. We also write increasing data in the veritcal direction as increasing while travelling upwards. If you read this chart (as amnended) in the normal manner you could easily get confused that, indeed, CO2 preceeds temperature.
But then what would you expect from 'true believers' of the Holy Church of Dirt Worshipers? Science is prostituted to belief at every turn, so why would this chart be any different? Consider, they're addressing America - a land drowning in scientific ignorance (or was that just general ignorance?).
People I talk to on the plane as I travel can tell me all about Prada and leather goods, but it's a miracle if anyone on the entire plane has heard of the 11 and 21 year solar cycles, etc., etc.
pardon my rant..
chuck in st paul
In my opinion, that graph is
September 13, 2007 - 13:29 ET by taznarIn my opinion, that graph is not meant to be easily understood. Another example is the arbitrary and different scales used for temperature and CO2. Note how CO2 concentration runs almost full scale -the high values near the top of the graph, the lows near the bottom. Contrast this to the temperature, which is essentially confined to the top half of the graph's scale.
If you really want to demonstrate a temporal correlation, the max and min on both graphs should be scaled so they are at the same level on the graph. That way, if there is an exact correlation the two lines would be right on top of each other. Any deviation from an exact correlation is immediately evident. The way they've done it requires a lot more visual and cognitive work and makes it easier to hide a lack of temporal correlation.
Besides
September 13, 2007 - 13:54 ET by mattmCorrelation does not imply causation.
Fortunately, there's more
September 13, 2007 - 14:00 ET by RottenHamFortunately, there's more evidence than mere correlation for AGW.
True, but keep in mind that
September 13, 2007 - 14:42 ET by taznarTrue, but keep in mind that given a specific hypothesis, a lack of correlation or an "inverse" correllation can disprove a hypothesis.
For example, if the hypothesis is that increases in CO2 concentration cause a temperature increase, and what is observed is that temperature increases precede increases in CO2 concentration, then that argues against the initial hypothesis. In fact, the data would support the hypothesis that temperature increases cause an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This is supported by the fact that increased temperature (counterintuitively) decreases the solubility of CO2 in the oceans, causing them to release large quantities of CO2.
To date, neither hypothesis has been adequately tested (as far as I know). However I'd rate the latter hypothesis more likely based on the temporal correlation between temperature and CO2 concentration.
In short, a correlation can be consistent or inconsistent with a given hypothesis. The temporal relationship between temperature and CO2 concentration is inconsistent with the hypothesis that increased CO2 concentration is the driving force behind global temperature increases.
For example, if the
September 13, 2007 - 14:49 ET by RottenHamExcept that is not what is observed today. Today, carbon dioxide increases lead temperature increases. At the end of the last ice age, the warming phase of the Milankovitch cycle warmed the planet which melted ice, exposed soil, and released carbon dioxide. That carbon dioxide then reinforced the warming trend. Your argument is flawed because you assume that carbon dioxide must always instigate warming and can never reinforce it.
No. You're oversimplifying and misinterpreting the data.
Except that is not what is
September 13, 2007 - 15:42 ET by taznarBased on what data? That's not evident from the graph presented here.
So the temperature increase is what caused the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. If, as you say, that CO2 release reinforced the warming trend that still leaves human production of CO2 completely out of the loop.
I made no such assumption. But I'm also aware of the distinction between "can" and "did". CO2 does play a role. What's ambiguous is how much of a role at any given time, under any given circumstances.
the chart's bass-akwards anyway...EXPECTED...
September 13, 2007 - 13:52 ET by vrwc13he is probalby a public school - whole language - dyslexic lib
He probably did not want the right to be right, thus the left is right.
v
he is probalby a public
September 13, 2007 - 13:55 ET by RottenHamHmm...that sounds like name-calling. Where's Noel to police this stuff?
Wiz & Other On-Topic Posters
September 13, 2007 - 14:24 ET by Junk Science SkepticMy eyes might be getting crossed after looking at too many graphs, but it looks like the colors were right on the original graph, yet the book's statement regarding the graph implying causation is backwards.
In the original graph, many of the blue/temperature peaks preceed the red/CO2 peaks, showing that temperature increase preceeds CO2 increase.
The big problem with the graph is the vertical fiddling adjusting the graph so the temperature and CO2 peaks are rougly aligned in height.
The important issue here is the timing of the increases, not the amount of increase, so (I think) the graph needs correction on the horizontal axis.
I'm not a professional statistician by any means, so those interested might be advised to consult http://www.climateau... for some expert analysis.
Thompson/Giuliani 2008
Look at the Y axis.
September 13, 2007 - 14:22 ET by NBFI also notice that the graph has no Y-axis values, no indication of a zero point, and so we cannot know how much the values are "stretched".
How about a little CO2 education?
September 13, 2007 - 14:24 ET by Ralph Hansen Ph. D.RottenHam, why don't you put down the global warming bible for awhile and see if your brain is capable of understanding the scientific reality of CO2's heat trapping capabilities?
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/2006/05/10/more-on-the-relative-importance-of-the-radiative-forcing-of-co2/
- Consensus is what you look for when you don’t have the facts -
I certainly do understand
September 13, 2007 - 14:32 ET by RottenHamI certainly do understand the scientific reality of CO2's heat trapping capabilities. Do you?
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/10/attribution-of-20th-century-climate-change-to-cosub2sub/
hey hamhock
September 13, 2007 - 15:37 ET by bassndudeRealclimate a hanson endorsed site. Come on now. Were looking for real data here.
Save a SeAL, club a liberal!!
Great line about consensus Ralph Hansen
September 13, 2007 - 14:32 ET by Dee BunkIs that yours or is it a quote?
There Just Lemmings
September 13, 2007 - 14:28 ET by Wildcatter1980Based on the discussions I have had with the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) believers, they are nothing but sycophantic lemmings. They genuflect with praise and deep reverence towards all the researchers who have published peer-reviewed studies suggesting the anthropogenic link to global warming and then turn and demand peer-reviewed evidence to counter them. Show them Avery and Singer's analysis showing over 500 examples of peer-reviewed evidence refuting at least one element of the AGW hypothesis and they will dismiss it out of hand by saying the authors are corrupt because of how they are funded. Of course, they won't admit their hypocrisy nor will they concede that the researchers and the bureaucrats who are sounding the AGW alarms may just as likely be sounding these alarms to keep themselves funded and/or employed!
Just my $0.02
From your own
September 13, 2007 - 14:35 ET by RottenHamFrom your own article:
Translation: The researchers Avery and Singer cite would disagree with Avery and Singer's use (or misuse) of their research.
No. The real translation is,
September 13, 2007 - 15:01 ET by taznarNo. The real translation is, "Regardless of the personal views of the researchers involved, there are over 500 examples of peer-reviewed evidence refuting at least one element of the AGW hypothesis."
We don't really know the views of the researchers, one way or another.
When Naomi Oreskes did her
September 13, 2007 - 15:44 ET by RottenHamWhen Naomi Oreskes did her survey, she published it in Science. Which peer-reviewed journal will Avery and Singer publish this in?
A Literature Review
September 13, 2007 - 22:34 ET by stratmanRottenHam:
You are either disingenuous or willfully ignorant.
The link clearly states that more than 500 scientists have published articles which contest AGW precepts/concepts, and that these articles have already been published in peer-reviewed journals. And that includes the journal Science, just like your example of Naomi Oreskes.
A metanalysis of this type does not need to be published in a peer reviewed journal in order to be valid. Only the content must be faithfully reproduced, ie no fudging of Temperature vs CO2 Concentration axes, in order for it to be valid.
Your question is invalid and obscures enlightenment and understanding.
Naomi Oreskes states "If the history of science teaches anything, it is humility". You could learn something from her statement on humilty.
Killing them with kindness isn't working. Time to get scrappy with the Donkeys.
The link clearly states
September 14, 2007 - 09:55 ET by RottenHamThat claim has not been evaluated by anybody other than the ideologues who make it. The supporting data and methods have not been published in any peer-reviewed journal. Just because two paid industry shills like Singer and Avery make the claim doesn't make it so. Even they admit that many of the authors of the studies they cite would disagree with their interpretation.
Naomi Oreskes published hers in Science. Why can't they? What are they afraid of?
Bogus "studies" from right-wing think tanks that are so biased or of such poor quality that they can't make it into the professional literature obscure enlightenment and understanding.
1) It's a literature
September 14, 2007 - 22:55 ET by stratman1) It's a literature review of peer-reviewed scientific research. It's already been peer-reviewed. If you disagree then prove it.
2) AGW alarmists are idealogues just like you.
3) AGW chickenlittles are paid industry shills too. Maybe you are as well. In fact, the money is incredibly more lucrative if you swing AGW than not. Prove that AGW alarmists are not in it for the money while those unconvinced and questioning are shills.
4) Naomi Oreskes is not the magic vagina. Good on for her to so bravely publishing a toady article in a journal that clearly is biased towards her point of view while marginalizing serious and valid questions of others that are not 'consensually' convinced.
5) How in the world would you know whether Singer and Avery tried to publish in Science or are "afraid" of Science. That's inflammatory nonsense from a smug one-note shill like yourself.
6) Non-Republican scientists are questioning AGW, including some that were reviewers of the IPCC politicized document. Your childish attempt to slander and marginalize scientific dissent is precisely the modus operandi of Communists and Communist sympathizers in the 20th Century
7) The website you reference ad nauseum is flawed, starting with their avoidance of full disclosure of why the "hockey stick" was propaganda. If you think the folks there are pure of heart and unbiased then you are either monolithically gullable or are a junior snake oil salesman yourself.
8) A few quick questions:
What is the optimal temperature for the Earth?
What is the absolute mean surface air temperature of the Earth? How exactly is that derived?
Exactly how are you accounting for the single greatest Green House Gas - Water - approximately 90% of all GHG- the one humans have very little control over and thus no trillion dollar funding will "fix"? How do clouds affect climate sensitivity in relationship to feedback?
What is the human contribution to total atmospheric CO2?
If the effect of CO2 on temperature is logarithmic, and pre-Industrial Revolution CO2 was 280 ppmv (meaning the first half of that heating was delivered by about 20ppmv (0.002% of atmosphere) while the second half required an additional 260ppmv (0.026%)), to double the pre-Industrial Revolution warming from CO2 alone would require about 90,000ppmv (9%). CO2 becomes toxic at around 6,000ppmv (0.6%). How do you anticipate humans increasing atmospheric CO2 from current 380 ppmv to even the toxic level of 6,000 ppmv? Lindzen states that a doubling from 300ppmv to 600ppmv of atmospheric carbon dioxide would result in only 0.5 °C warming - hardly catastrophic.
CO2 and water vapor absorb radiant bandlength energy and become saturated. Given enough atmospheric CO2, all radiant energy in its absorptive bandlength is absorbed and additional CO2 entering the atmosphere is unable to significantly absorb more radiant energy because it is unavailable - the logarithmic effect. More CO2 at that point does not contribute to temperature effects.
Killing them with kindness isn't working. Time to get scrappy with the Donkeys.
Strat
September 14, 2007 - 23:10 ET byGood comments but the oink-meister is banned
Also while Miles D was here he explained that clouds have differing effects depending on whether they are over land or water. They reflect light (cool) AND trap heat (warm) and thus (along with the land/water) are so differcult to map that there are no valid computer models that take them into account.
Support our Troops
Thank you btog. I asked
September 15, 2007 - 00:36 ET by stratmanThank you btog.
I asked the questions, including the one concerning clouds, to highlight the weaknesses in the AGW argument. I was waiting for the FetidHambone to pontificate/obfuscate in his usual manner and then present fact as you have done.
Like an attorney in court, never ask a question of the opposition you don't already know the answer.
DecompensatingPorker appeared to never intend to discuss issues, only manipulate, deviate and infuriate. If he is banned, I fully expect the agitprop to regenerate under a different moniker. Trolls need negative attention to give some meaning to their miserable lives. For now, he should be well fed. You're welcome.
Killing them with kindness isn't working. Time to get scrappy with the Donkeys.
DirtyPig
September 14, 2007 - 00:50 ET by RESTLESS 1There is NO CONSENSUS!! Period. You should read the whole thing, should keep you busy for a few months.
P.S. Free Stinker, I hope you do not mind me posting your work here, but it is too good not to share.
There is NO CONSENSUS!!
September 14, 2007 - 09:48 ET by RottenHamI've seen all of that before. It's the same bunch of discredited garbage "skeptics" always trot out and anyone with even a modicum of knowledge on this topic can see right through. There is a strong consensus among professional climate scientists that global warming is real and is caused by humans. The pros don't fall for that hokum and neither should you.
You argue like my wife (and
September 14, 2007 - 09:57 ET by MightyMouthYou argue like my wife (and a typical liberal).
For the last frigin time: CONSENSUS IS NOT SCIENCE!
If it were, then you would be a fool for not believing in God as 95% of the world believes in God. Capisce?
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
For the last frigin time
September 14, 2007 - 09:59 ET by RottenHamFor the last friggin' time: NOBODY IS ARGUING THAT IT IS!!
The consensus shows that the evidence is strong enough to persuade the overwhelming majority of the professionals who study this topic. Those who dispute the consensus do so for ideological or monetary reasons and base their arguments on conceptual and factual errors. The consensus is a result of the strength of the science, not the other way around, and no one has claimed otherwise.
Really??????????
September 14, 2007 - 10:02 ET by MightyMouth"There is a strong consensus among professional climate scientists..."
YOUR words, YES you are arguing consensus. Go away TROLL!
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
YOUR words, YES you are
September 14, 2007 - 10:07 ET by RottenHamA consensus exists. That doesn't mean that the science is a product of the consensus. It's the other way around.
That doesn't mean that the science is a product of the consensus
September 14, 2007 - 10:16 ET by MightyMouthA point you have not even begun to PROVE.
On the other hand, many posts have been given in this thread and others, that point to a consensus of other scientists who state the opposite. So if you are arguing that more scientists believe the hype of AGW than scientists who do not your whole agrument is consensus. You can dismiss all the other evidence presented in these theads but that does not change the fact that AGW is still being debated vigorously!
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
I see
September 13, 2007 - 15:34 ET by SQL_SamSo if research is used against your hypothesis of AGW it is misuse, but if it falls in line with your "consensous" it is used correctly. I guess you just explained it all. Basic Sciece: How do the scientists know what they know? When it comes to gathering information, scientists usually rely on the scientific method. The scientific method is a plan that is followed in performing a scientific experiment and writing up the results. It is not a set of instructions for just one experiment, nor was it designed by just one person. The scientific method has evolved over time after many scientists performed experiments and wanted to communicate their results to other scientists. The scientific method allows experiments to be duplicated and results to be communicated uniformly. As you're about to see, the format of the scientific method is very logical. Really, many people solve problems and answer questions every day in the same way that experiments are designed. Hypothetically speaking When preparing to do research, a scientist must form a hypothesis, which is an educated guess about a particular problem or idea, and then work to support it and prove that it is correct, or refute it and prove that it is wrong. Whether the scientist is right or wrong is not as important as whether he or she sets up an experiment that can be repeated by other scientists, who expect to reach the same conclusion I haven't been shown any experiments on the AGW that can be repeated by other scientists that prove or disprove AGW, if you can supply some that would be cool, I'd like to educate myself on this. I've been informed that the computer models have been shown to be flawed, the reason why? To many variables, and not enough constants to measure accurately (thus the consensused scientists in the 70's were wrong about the comming ice age). I tell you what - I'll believe in AGW when scientist can accurately predict (in a consensus) the exact temperature 10 days from now in 5 US cities (I'm not even asking for cities in other countries - which should make it easier huh?) If they can't get this data from there models then how accurate are they?
I haven't been shown any
September 13, 2007 - 15:42 ET by RottenHamThe case for AGW is multilayered. It's built on the physical properties of carbon dioxide, the sources of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and its effects on the climate system. You're not going to find one experiment that encompasses all of that. If you're really interested, I suggest you start with Ch 9 of the IPCC AR4.
Climate and weather are not the same things. The accuracy of weather models says nothing about the accuracy of climate models.
Climate and weather are not
September 13, 2007 - 15:54 ET by bassndudeClimate and weather are not the same things. The accuracy of weather models says nothing about the accuracy of climate models.
What a crock. The standard throw around of those who belive in AGW.
Climate is defined as:
The average course or condition of the weather at a place usually over a period of years as exhibited by temperature, wind velocity, and precipitation.
Save a SeAL, club a liberal!!
Climate and weather are
September 13, 2007 - 16:04 ET by taznarThat's very true. Weather models are based on years and years of repeated measurements, are put to the test every day and are relatively mature. Climate models are essentially based on a single data set for which only a relatively small amount of data is available, have never really passed rigorous testing and are still in the developmental stage. I'd put my money on the 5-day forcast before I'd put it on a 50 or 500 year forcast.
Don't get me wrong, the current climate models are amazingly powerful tools for climate research. But assuming the "research" is complete and they can now be used to predict future climate with any degree of certainty is a mistake.
Yup.
September 13, 2007 - 14:44 ET by krismcsherryThis whole site is propaganda. --Rotty
And that bothers you. Otherwise you wouldn't be here.
As to Laurie David: She's getting divorced, right? I loved reading the quote from her ex Larry about going home and turning on all the lights or somesuch. Must've been hard living with an ecochondriac.
Thanks for pointing out the error in her book. I have no doubt it will pop up in one of my classrooms some day soon. I hope I'm not required to read it.
And that bothers you.
September 13, 2007 - 14:51 ET by RottenHamNot at all. I'm here because I enjoy debate.
Rotten enjoys debating by holding a position that he believes
September 13, 2007 - 14:57 ET by Dee Bunkshouldn't be debated. Okay then. We gotcha
Dee,
September 13, 2007 - 15:38 ET by SQL_Samjust a friendly FYI: Debating is holding a position you believe in and discussing it. Being right or wrong has nothing to do with it actually. A debate does not mean that you are going to change someones opinion on what he is debating either.
SQL - what did I say about being right or wrong? Friendly FYI:
September 13, 2007 - 16:11 ET by Dee BunkGiving a friendly FYI that is irrelevant and condescending is a little annoying. I'll assume you didn't mean to be rude because I don't know you.
You probably didn't follow the whole thread, and that's why you didn't understand my point. Rotten has been arguing that people shouldn't argue about GW. If you are going to debate a point you debate the facts. He isn't using and facts or other debating techniques for that matter.
I could care less if he believes that Humans Cause Global Warming or not. I haven't made up my mind on the issue myself so I wouldn't call anyone right or wrong. Conservatives definitely have the better arguments and debating techniques on the issue. The whole liberal argument is based on shutting down alternate opinions, not addressing them.
If you are going to
September 13, 2007 - 16:18 ET by RottenHamYou must have missed my first post at the top of this thread. I provided facts and cited a source.
Not really. Conservatives have lost every scientific point from the MSU satellite debacle to solar heating, ocean cooling, and cosmic rays. Global warming "skepticism" is a fringe idea in professional scientific circles because the evidence just doesn't support it.
Don't let him fool you Dee.
September 13, 2007 - 16:52 ET by MightyMouthDon't let him fool you Dee. He trys to use the same "Ice Core" data when it is convenient to his position and then discounts that data when it does not align with his position. See the entire thread for examples of this.
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
He trys to use the same
September 13, 2007 - 16:57 ET by RottenHamWrong as usual. I don't discount the data; I discount your interpretation of it.
You lie. You discounted
September 13, 2007 - 17:08 ET by MightyMouthYou lie.
You discounted core sample data as uncertain with regard to time span between tempatures and CO2 levels. Then you (and the site you keep linking to) use the same data to determine CO2 levels have no other plausable reason to be high other than human activity. So the question is: Is the data reliable or not? You cant have it both ways.
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
You discounted core
September 13, 2007 - 17:19 ET by RottenHamYou lie. I accept the data AND its accompanying uncertainty.
Today, there is no other plausible explanation.
Here's a novel idea for you to consider: data collected over the last several decades is inherently more reliable than data extrapolated from ice cores that are tens of thousands of years old. Modern climate data and paleoclimate data have differing uncertainties.
Heres and even more novel
September 13, 2007 - 17:27 ET by MightyMouthHeres and even more novel idea. Data collected over the last several decades is statistically insignificant compared to data representing thousands of years. Maybe the AGW apologists are hoping for some short term AGW bucks by fomenting hysteria and gloom and doom. Ever thought of that? Scientists aren't as pure as you assume. They have SUV's and Air conditioned homes to pay for too!
BTW how do you recieve a pay check, by producing GH gases or telling others they are producing too much?
"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...
Heres and even more novel
September 13, 2007 - 17:30 ET by RottenHamWhy is it "statistically insignificant?" We've had a statistically significant increase in both greenhouse gas concentrations and temperatures over the last several decades.
Or maybe climate scientists are smart people doing their jobs to the best of their ability and the evidence just doesn't support your conspiracy theories. Ever thought of that?
Ah.
September 13, 2007 - 16:14 ET by JungusNot at all. I'm here because I enjoy debate.
Glad to know that. I would hate to think that you were a troll.
Seriously, Rotty
September 13, 2007 - 15:01 ET by krismcsherryNot at all. I'm here because I enjoy debate.
Then why do you come across as angry and condescending? Why the dogmatic attitude and talking down to others, using the word denier? They seem bullying tactics to me, not a hint of enjoyment.
Dee Bunk
September 13, 2007 - 15:04 ET by krismcsherryExcellent logic. Mr. Spock would be proud of you.
Thanks Kris - I deal with
September 13, 2007 - 15:29 ET by Dee BunkThanks Kris - I deal with liberals by using everything I learned in kindergarden and save the rest for the real world. : )
Three questions RH... 1)
September 13, 2007 - 16:41 ET by CooltomThree questions RH...
1) What caused all the other temperature peaks in the historical record? Lemurian hovercraft SUVs?
2) If the AGW theory is so concrete shouldn't the data tend to be increasingly refined and hence further confirm it. If a theory is correct, data should point in one direction and further examination should buttress the argument. Gravity, the speed of light and the laws of thermodynamics are universally accepted. Of course, there are peculiarities in either of them but each is basically unquestioned. Why is it that most of the "evidence" of AGW can be negated totally with everyday scientific facts?
3) As in the Laurie David graph, we have seen that the "hockey stick" and NASA "hottest year" graphs and tables have been proven to be false and based on fudging statistical rules, preconceived assumptions, and cherry-picked data. If AGW is so infallible, why do the leading icons of the movement resort to dubious methods?
1) What caused all the
September 13, 2007 - 16:55 ET by RottenHamThere were a variety of causes--from changes in the Earth's orbit to changes in atmospheric composition to solar irradiance changes. Just because the Earth warmed naturally in the past does not mean it must be warming naturally now.
It has. The more research scientists do, the stronger the evidence for AGW becomes. Just compare the IPCC statements about human causation in the TAR with those in the AR4.
It can't. Those who claim they can usually have their facts wrong.
No, they haven't been proven false. If you read the NAS report on the hockey stick, it doesn't say it's false at all. It says that uncertainties before 1600 are large but the hockey stick is still likely to be correct. The "hottest year" change was due to a 1/100th of a degree correction in a record that's only accurate to 1/10th of a degree. For someone so concerned about "fudging statistical rules," you should see that such a change is not statistically significant. Also, that change only applies to the United States, not the globe. 1934 was NOT the hottest year globally.
They don't. You've mischaracterized the issue and gotten the facts wrong. Why do "skeptics" resort to such deceptive arguments?
Global Warming bad?
September 13, 2007 - 17:03 ET by windellmcHere is the deal. If we actively seek to reduce carbon emissions a lot of people will stay or be forced into poverty and millions will die. Especially those in poor countries. This is pretty much a known fact. The track record of environmentalists is pretty poor. They outlawed DDT for no valid scientific reason. Now millions are dead and permanently disabled from malaria that could have been stopped.
What is not a known fact is whether increased CO2 will help or hurt mankind and the majority of organisms on the earth. Remember all those fossil fuels were once zooming around the atmosphere at a time when most would agree the earth had a great deal of biological diversity.
Either you believe in evolution over millions of years when the dinosaurs ruled the earth for a couple of hundred million years (sounds pretty successful for such a "hot" planet) or you believe the Bible and that the earth was a paradise before the flood a few thousand years ago (sounds like a good place to live too). Either way you likely believe the earth was better off before all the carbon became locked up in fossil fuels.
Should we not be burning fossil fuels as quickly as possible to return the earth to its natural state? I thought the environmentalists were all for a "natural" earth?
Global warming good! GW
September 13, 2007 - 17:09 ET by Clear thinkerGlobal warming good!
GW could be just the ticket for all the poorer nations. And, it just might ruin the USA. I would think the libs would love this possibility.
Get Email updates from Fred http://socialnet.imwithfred.com/email_alert_july_26.html
Here is the deal. If we
September 13, 2007 - 17:12 ET by RottenHamNo, it isn't. Instead of choosing between the status quo and deprivation, how about we provide ourselves and the poor countries with cleaner alternative technologies?
That's also nonsense. The DDT ban only applied to the US. It's still manufactured in other countries. Even the US ban had a public health exception. Poor countries stopped using DDT because mosquitoes became resistant to it. But that's another topic altogether.
Sounds like an argument to think very hard before messing with the atmosphere instead of charging blindly ahead in an uncontrolled experiment.
What makes you think the Earth was in an unnatural state for the 65 million years after the dinosaurs died out?
One Question RH
September 13, 2007 - 17:07 ET by In ExcessGo back in time as far as you wish to start, then know that every decade has seen an increase in population. That would result in more people, more cars and trucks, more recreational vehicles, more homes, more businesses, more farming, etc. If humans are the cause of Global Warming, then Why isn't every decade warmer than the previous decade??
If humans are the cause
September 13, 2007 - 17:15 ET by RottenHamBecause the rise in carbon dioxide concentrations over time is not linear. The bulk of it came after 1960 and, since then, decades have been progressively warmer.
Huh?
September 13, 2007 - 17:37 ET by In ExcessSo increases in people, cars and trucks, recreational vehicles, homes and businesses, farming, etc. did not occur prior to 1960?
So increases in people,
September 13, 2007 - 17:39 ET by RottenHamI didn't say that. I said the increase wasn't linear and that the bulk of the carbon dioxide (about 65%) came after 1960. Smaller increases in carbon dioxide before 1960 could still be overwhelmed by natural variability. Today, carbon dioxide is the dominant driver of climate.
''...COULD be
September 13, 2007 - 17:56 ET by In Excess''...COULD be overwhelmed...''.
Again, no proof that it was overwhelmed. Just another theory.
Today, carbon dioxide is the dominant driver of climate.
I think the sun is the dominant driver of the climate. It is 1.3 Million times the size of the earth.
I think the sun is the
September 13, 2007 - 18:11 ET by RottenHamBut the Sun is no hotter today than it was two decades ago. If the Earth is heating up, it's not because of the Sun.
Really?
September 13, 2007 - 18:31 ET by In ExcessIn 2005, the BBC reported the sun was more active over the past 60 years than anytime in the previous 1150 years.
and
Space.com reports, In what could be the simplest explanation for one component of global
warming, a new study shows the Sun's radiation has increased by .05 percent per decade since the late 1970s.
So what happened around the
September 13, 2007 - 17:47 ET by Dan The Man 2So what happened around the 70's and the scare that the earth was cooling and we would be in an ice age soon? Your statement "The bulk of it came after 1960 and, since then, decades have been progressively warmer" seems disingenuous given the fact that we were supposed to be in an ice age by now. Its seems the scientists have flipped on their assumptions and hypothisis. Wh ydont we just coast along for say 25 more years and then evalaute our situation and in the meantime collect more data and make better models.
Nuke em til they glow then shoot em in the dark.
So what happened around
September 13, 2007 - 17:52 ET by RottenHamYet another myth: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/01/the-global-cooling-myth/
Why don't we cut our emissions while we wait on those better models? Why would you assume it's safe to alter the atmospheric composition over the next 25 years?
So what happened around the
September 13, 2007 - 17:59 ET by In ExcessSo what happened around the 70's
was that Scientists saw that the 50', 60's and 70's were cooler than the 30's and 40's, thus the 'scare'. Same thing as today. They are just being reactionary.
Do not feed the Troll = Rotterham
September 13, 2007 - 19:41 ET by PopularTechHe makes statements in an authoritive definitive nature as if he is the final authority on the issues when he is not. Do not be fooled, he has been proven wrong on multiple occassions and simply invents strawmen arguments, dismisses ALL evidence to the contrary by stating it is disproven without disproving it or he "throws it away" and when backed into a corner either changes the argument or flat out lies. His rabid responses is a desperate last ditch attempt by someone who knows the science is going against his beliefs.
You cannot have a discourse with him, it is simply impossible - do not engage him, ignore him. Trolls feed on responses.
The Anti "Man-Made" Global Warming Resource
reincarnation
September 13, 2007 - 19:45 ET by Free StinkerWith RH, I think we're dealing with a reincarnation here . . .
Just saying . . .
deja-vu
September 13, 2007 - 20:35 ET byi've heard that before
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I agree P.T. I have not
September 13, 2007 - 20:48 ET by RESTLESS 1I agree P.T. I have not engaged Dirtypig much, and I doubt I will again. Some people are just hopeless.
RottenHam Quotes
September 13, 2007 - 21:05 ET by PopularTechHere are some of his typical replies:
"...we can throw that one in the garbage with the rest of your nonsense."
"So, all of that cosmic ray garbage goes right down the crapper."
"Like all deniers, your argument is based on a bunch of discredited and fringe ideas."
"None of that matters because it's all incorrect."
"No wonder you guys are such jokes in the scientific community."
"This is just a pathetic attempt to brush away an inconvenient truth"
"Al Gore has the evidence on his side. Deniers don't."
"Only if by "truth" you mean "right-wing lies about the climate."
"It's you who behaves like a lame knee-jerk 'denier' "
"It's written by a fringe group of deniers"
"So all of those half-truths and sophistry were just for me?"
"They were probably the same lame long-refuted denier arguments that we've all heard before."
"It's just another way deniers lie about the climate."
"...in typical denier fashion, you cherry-pick here"
"I could say the same thing about deniers. They've lost every
scientific point. They're nowhere to be found in the professional
literature."
"If you look in the peer-reviewed literature, there is no debate over the causes of global warming."
"Sadly, modern conservatives spend much time carrying water for polluters."
"...global warming was settled years ago and deniers lost."
"The debate IS over because there's simply no evidence supporting the denier position."
"You've been pushed into the dunces' corner with the creationists"
"I'm not going to tell you my background..."
"I could tell you I was a climate scientist or an engineer or a hairdresser and it wouldn't make any difference."
The Anti "Man-Made" Global Warming Resource
"At the end of the last ice
September 13, 2007 - 20:28 ET by ckc1227"At the end of the last ice age, the warming phase of the Milankovitch
cycle warmed the planet which melted ice, exposed soil, and released
carbon dioxide."
And didn't destroy the planet. That's the bottom line.
"At the end of the last
September 13, 2007 - 20:39 ET by RottenHamNobody is claiming the planet will be "destroyed." However, it may be made much less habitable for humans and other creatures.
As a matter of fact,
September 13, 2007 - 20:43 ET by Jack BauerAs a matter of fact, increased CO2 to the higher levels enjoyed in the past would help make the planet more habitable for other creatures including insects.
For a start it would help increase crop yields, provide lusher, healthier vegetation and aid plant growth.
For a start it would
September 13, 2007 - 20:52 ET by RottenHamTemporarily, but then pest infestations, more frequent droughts and floods would overwhelm the benefits leading to a net loss in yields.
as long as we're making it up
September 13, 2007 - 21:05 ET bybut the UFOs will save us all
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Pest Invasion
September 13, 2007 - 21:19 ET by Mike From CanmoreYa. Thank goodness for the LIA. A few more months a those wine growing regions in England would have been run over by the simple complex organism bugs. Oh yea, that was a local European thing. Kind of like ozone is map heavy.
Keep diggin'. Still waitin' for something of substance. You remind me of Steve Bloom at Climate Science. Could only claim my scientists are better than yours. Not much of an argument.
You need to keep ramping up the scare rhetoric. The environmental group you work for can't actually earn revenue.
*Argue for your limitations and sure enough you will achieve them.
warmed the planet which
September 13, 2007 - 20:45 ET bywarmed the planet which melted ice, exposed soil, and released
carbon dioxide."
once again CO2 is a lagging indicator of warming
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once again CO2 is a
September 13, 2007 - 20:50 ET by RottenHamAt the ends of the ice ages, CO2 reinforced an existing warming trend. Today, CO2 is entering the atmosphere through a different mechanism--human emissions--and driving a warming trend. You cannot make ham-handed comparisons between then and now.
are you nuts?
September 13, 2007 - 21:03 ET byhuman emisions account for what percentage of CO2 entering the atmosphere?
a ham-handed comparison? so you admit that 'ham' logic sucks then do ya ham?
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The Peer Review Evidence of CO2 Lag
September 13, 2007 - 21:33 ET by PopularTechTiming of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature Changes Across Termination III
(Science 14, Vol. 299. no. 5613, March 2003)
- Nicolas Caillon, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Jean Jouzel, Jean-Marc Barnola, Jiancheng Kang, Volodya Y. Lipenkov
QUOTE
The
sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2
increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 ± 200 years and
preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.
Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations
(Science 12, Vol. 283. no. 5408, pp. 1712 - 1714, March 1999)
- Hubertus Fischer, Martin Wahlen, Jesse Smith, Derek Mastroianni, Bruce Deck
The Anti "Man-Made" Global Warming Resource
Three more questions,
September 13, 2007 - 22:16 ET by CooltomThree more questions, RH...
What would the temperature of the Earth be if the Sun wasn't there?
What causes Ice Ages?
Are the Sun's output, the Earth's magnetic field, the Earth's tilt, and the Earth's orbit constant from decade to decade?