Less Than Half of Published Scientists Endorse Global Warming Theory

Photo of Noel Sheppard.

Consensus? What consensus?

A new survey about to be published by the journal Energy and Environment finds that less than 50 percent of the scientific papers written about climate change since 2004 have endorsed the view that man's activities are causing global warming.

Think Katie, Charlie, and Brian will be discussing this tonight?

As reported by DailyTech Wednesday (emphasis added throughout):

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Medical researcher Dr. Klaus-Martin Schulte recently updated this research. Using the same database and search terms as [history professor Naomi] Oreskes, he examined all papers published from 2004 to February 2007. The results have been submitted to the journal Energy and Environment, of which DailyTech has obtained a pre-publication copy. The figures are surprising.

Of 528 total papers on climate change, only 38 (7%) gave an explicit endorsement of the consensus. If one considers "implicit" endorsement (accepting the consensus without explicit statement), the figure rises to 45%. However, while only 32 papers (6%) reject the consensus outright, the largest category (48%) are neutral papers, refusing to either accept or reject the hypothesis. This is no "consensus."

Think someone will be interviewing Al Gore in the next couple of days to get his view on this? Or James Hansen? Or any of the global warming alarmists?

But I digress:

The figures are even more shocking when one remembers the watered-down definition of consensus here. Not only does it not require supporting that man is the "primary" cause of warming, but it doesn't require any belief or support for "catastrophic" global warming. In fact of all papers published in this period (2004 to February 2007), only a single one makes any reference to climate change leading to catastrophic results.

[...]

Schulte's survey contradicts the United Nation IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (2007), which gave a figure of "90% likely" man was having an impact on world temperatures. But does the IPCC represent a consensus view of world scientists? Despite media claims of "thousands of scientists" involved in the report, the actual text is written by a much smaller number of "lead authors."

If we had an honest media, this would be a huge part of today's reports. Unfortunately, it is quite likely that only conservative blogs, Fox News, and the Drudge Report will view this survey as being in any way newsworthy.

What a disgrace.

—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters.


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con·sen·sus   

con·sen·sus      /kənˈsɛnsəs/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[kuhn-sen-suhs] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation

–noun, plural -sus·es.

1.
majority of opinion: The consensus of the group was that they should meet twice a month.

2.
general agreement or concord; harmony.

 

example - The consensus of the msm will be to ignore these findings.

Perhaps, maybe...

"However, while only 32 papers (6%) reject the consensus outright, the largest category (48%) are neutral papers, refusing to either accept or reject the hypothesis. This is no "consensus."

That makes sense. I've read through (to the best of my limited ability) many scientific articles and most are neutral. They seem like honest studies trying to get to the facts. My reading has also re-emphasized a known no-no in fiction writing: watch out for those adverbs. They indicate the author of the work is trying to convince you of something he's not sure about, not sure you'll buy--in the case of the IPCC, adverbs pad their agenda.  

Watch out for such words: "likely", "most probably", "almost certainly". You don't need to read any further when an article uses too many of these.

In fact, if I were  Dr. Klaus-Martin Schulte, I would've taken out an "only" or two in my statements. 

Testing Hypotheses

the largest category (48%) are neutral papers, refusing to either accept or reject the hypothesis

Exactly.  This is what my rudimentary (technician for >25 yrs.) scientific education taught me:  testing continues and must have repeatability.  What is surprising, but probably ought not be so, is that only 48% of so-called scientists were neutral on the question of Anthropogenic GW.  Roy Spencer has done work on precipitation systems that should have all the AGW community and the MSM sitting up and questioning their core beliefs, but I don't beleive in Santa Claus anymore.  And as you and others have repeatedly pointed out, there are many others out there drilling holes in the AGW theory that the MSM loves to ignore.  James Hansen plays to their audience better.  When he finally self destructs, they will have a story about how the deniers were able to engineer his destruction through big money payoffs through the oil companies.  Cry me a river.

"The future is not set.  There is no fate but what we make for ourselves."

An Easier Way

The easiest way to determine the veracity of a claim is to look at who is saying what about it.  If Al Gore is promoting something, you know it's wrong!  That's a heckuva lot easier than calculus - and just as accurate. ; )

Funny

99% (give or take) of Democrats buy the APGW crud.  Maybe 25% of Republicans do.  Yet, more than half of published scientists don't buy it...

This translates to just about every issue.  The Dems, and a few misguided Repubs, are operating in direct contradiction to the facts!

Politics 101 principle #7 - If most Democrats/Liberals agree with it, it's probably wrong.

MATTM...

Almost no politician will let pesky facts get in the way of a good campaign position. And many will take contradictory positions depending on the audience they are addressing, just look at Kerry and Edwards as two examples.

 

The day that "politician" became a career choice is the day we started losing the Republic

mattm

"The easiest way to determine the veracity of a claim is to look at who is saying what about it. If Al Gore is promoting something, you know it's wrong! That's a heckuva lot easier than calculus - and just as accurate"

Sure I sort of agree with that. Get me on a bad/lazy day and I don't bother spending time with contrary views. But I like to keep the brain-challenges current...meaning I'll read opposing views, even nutty ones. There's a point where you give up, of course, if the source is consistently nutty (like Gore, or Hansen). But I generally operate on a know-thine-enemy basis.

I find some folks live in an intellectual vacuum and I think it's a bit cowardly to insulate oneself in such a way.

qualifier

This is a general principle of what I like to call "politics 101"...  But it only works in certain cases. 

It works with people like Al Gore and Michael Moore because they have such a long history of being wrong that details are no longer necessary...just take the opposite position and you'll be right 85-95% of the time. 

If the issue is important enough to justify the time it takes, or if little is known about it, then the time spent on in-depth research is justifiable...

ACLU has a higher rate

If you take the opposite stance of the ACLU, you will have a 100% chance of being on the RIGHT side of the issue.

 

If conservatives are RIGHT, then liberals must be WRONG.
Thompson/Rice

LOL! Silly Noel. Neither

LOL! Silly Noel. Neither Gore nor Hansen would submit to such an interview. They only do concensus interviews with fawning media types. Your talking about an interview concerning facts.

Save a SeAL, club a liberal!!

The real cause of sunspots

Nice photo of the sunspots. You know, those are caused by Global Warming.   ;-)

When you put the clowns in charge, don't be surprised when a circus breaks out.

endocrinologist

Unusual that a scientist involved in endocrinology would branch out to this type of study - which is basically a journalism review on gw.

http://pps.kch.nhs.u...

He's involved in dna sequencing

http://jcem.endojour...

Good work!

 

mattm

"If the issue is important enough to justify the time it takes, or if little is known about it, then the time spent on in-depth research is justifiable..."

Good policy. I like it. Wish more people would follow it.  

that sounds about right.

Facts:

7% explicitly agree with AGW, 6% explicitly disagree, 45% have taken the bait and 48% want more study. Liberal Conclusion: The debate is over, now shut up and do what we say!

 

 

The day that "politician" became a career choice is the day we started losing the Republic

Stop! Think!

Your interpretation of this article relies on a serious logical error.  The important fact to take from this study is that of the studies which took an implicit or explicit position on global warming, 88% support the theory, and 12% do not.  You cannot draw any conclusions about the opinions of the scientists that authored neutral papers.  Your reading seems to assume that they must be neutral on the issue of global warming, therefore there is no consensus.  This is grossly unjustified.  The majority of scientific papers are neutral as to political issues, and even the most ardent proponent of a theory is likely to aslo publish neutral papers about methodology, raw data, etc.

What would be really interesting?  To know how many of the authors of neutral papers were also involved in the publication of position papers.  That might give you some insight into their opinions.

Oops, headline

Incidentally, you guys make a big deal about misleading headlines in the mainstream media...

The title of this blog post claims less than half of published scientists support global warming.  The study you are telling us about, though, refers to papers, not scientists.  Unless you've read through the bibliography and totalled up the number of authors of each paper, accounting for overlap, you don't really know what percentage of scientists support global warming.

Just keeping you honest :)

cleverpig,We'd be lost,

cleverpig,

We'd be lost, here, without you.

Thank you ever so much!

What did we do before you began posting here?

Thank heavens you've arrived to save us from our denying selves. 

Stupid idot.  In case you didn't understand that comment:

Bawahahahaha!  Go away, little troll.  Your kind has been seen here a thousand times....and dismissed a thousand and one times.

Troll on. 

David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive

 

If you have something to

If you have something to say about my point, then by all means, fight on!

Dismissing me without doing so, though, is kind of the definition of sticking your head in the sand.

I know it's lots of fun to bash liberals without actually thinking about what we say, but in the end that doesn't help you, and it certainly doesn't help the rest of us.

If you really can't stand it, go find some liberal echo chamber and bust in there!  Seriously, it's fun :)