For general discussion and debate. Possible talking point: Is the worst of the financial crisis still to come?
The IMF's chief economist has warned that the global financial crisis is set to worsen and that the situation will not improve until 2010, a report said Saturday..."The worst is yet to come," [Olivier] Blanchard said in an interview with the Finanz und Wirtschaft newspaper, adding that "a lot of time is needed before the situation becomes normal."...He said economic growth would not kick in until 2010 and it will take another year before the global financial situation became normal again.
Is he right, or will things get better sooner than he thinks...or later?





















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Not Your Grandfather’s Depression
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 11:23 ET by PopularTechIt is going to get worse...
Not Your Grandfather’s Depression (Peter Schiff)
Jim Rogers: Government Creating an Inflationary Holocaust (Video) (7min)
America's Great Depression (PDF) (368 pgs) (Murray Rothbard, Ph.D. Economics, 5th Edition, 2000)
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"The Sky Is Falling!"
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 11:29 ET by Free Stinker"The Sky Is Falling!" --Chicken Little
The Sky is not falling but the Dollar will
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 11:33 ET by PopularTechThe inevitable collapse of the dollar (Video) (7min)
But lets see so far you have been wrong on the Recession, Palin ect...
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Ha ha ha ha ha ha
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 11:36 ET by Free StinkerHa ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Summer
Last Week
The dollar made similar gains against the Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc as well.
"Gov. Palin has been subjected to one of the most massive and dishonest pile-on smear attacks in the history of liberal media." -- Lowell Ponte
PT
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 11:38 ET by cocodriePlease refer to Chauncey's explanation of the seasons in "Being There".
I said will not is
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 11:39 ET by PopularTechPeople are holding dollars right now thinking it is safe. What happens when foreigners start dumping dollars? It goes down.
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It's called "flight to quality"
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 11:48 ET by Free StinkerHolding dollars ? LOL Do you even know what you're talking about?
The USD has been gaining against 4 major currencies. It's called "flight to quality"
Gold ? When I looked last week, it was under $800. Under.
"Gov. Palin has been subjected to one of the most massive and dishonest pile-on smear attacks in the history of liberal media." -- Lowell Ponte
You never heard anyone say
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 11:54 ET by PopularTechYou never heard anyone say "holding dollars" before? Do you even understand economics?
So far you have been completely incompetent on the Recession and Palin. Maybe we should start listening to more of your bad advice.
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So I will take that as a
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:08 ET by Free StinkerSo I will take that as a "Yes, I have not heard of 'flight to quality' "
Next you'll tell us the Dollar is not the major reserve currency. "People will stop 'holding dollars' OMG!"
UPDATE:
"The Sky If Falling" --Chicken Little
Dollar Reserve Status in question
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:14 ET by PopularTechYes I remember it from an economics class in college, completely irrelevant to anything I said. Shall I break out my economics text books too?
Dollar Reserve Status Is Tale of Fading Glory: Michael R. Sesit (Bloomberg)
Euro May Join Dollar as Main Reserve Currency, Eichengreen Says (Bloomberg)
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You haven't followed EURUSD trading, have you?
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:20 ET by Free StinkerBreak out your economics texts all you want.
Maybe they will tell you what the most traded currency is, and how much greater the USD reserves are over the EUR. Bonus points if those texts tell you what reserve currency the EUR replaced.
Meanwhile, those articles were from 6 months ago. 6 Months. You haven't followed EURUSD trading, have you?
"Gov. Palin has been subjected to one of the most massive and dishonest pile-on smear attacks in the history of liberal media." -- Lowell Ponte
It all comes down to a matter of confidence
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:23 ET by PopularTechTrading patterns can change at anytime. Fiat currency is fiat currency and is only as valuable as the confidence placed in it.
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Now that I agree with. I
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:26 ET by Free StinkerNow that I agree with.
I would argue that the gains in the dollar represent confidence in it. I guess we'll just not agree on that.
FS, the dollar will only
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 13:40 ET by dscottFS, the dollar will only remain strong while the price of oil is down, once oil marches back up in price, the dollar must decline against the Euro. The only thing that saves us from utter ruin at this point is the low price of oil, period. The confidence in the dollar will evaporate once the world's investors find out the Treasury has been printing money. When that cat is out of the bag, game over and you best be in gold when that happens. It will come unfortunately because the idiot politicians think they can spend their way out of a recession. If annual budget deficits for the last 8 years didn't keep us out of a recession what makes anyone think tripling the budget deficit will either? this is typical of liberals, their answer always seems to be throw more of everyone's money at the problem in the hope something will overwhelm it.
Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.
What will these dollars
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 16:17 ET by BDWhat will these dollars "Flee to" if the market gets worse?
And what does Palin have to do with this subject?
The Strong Dollar Illusion
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:16 ET by PopularTechThe Strong Dollar Illusion (Peter Schiff)
Last Gasp of a Doomed Currency (Peter Schiff)
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Do you have anything more
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:23 ET by Free StinkerDo you have anything more recent?
Aug & Sep articles, and the dollar has gotten stronger since those were written.
"Gov. Palin has been subjected to one of the most massive and dishonest pile-on smear attacks in the history of liberal media." -- Lowell Ponte
Then you have nothing to worry about - Buy more Dollars
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:27 ET by PopularTechBuy more dollars, have fun. Here is some more good advice, buy Financials and banks like Washington Mutual - LMAO!
Peter Schiff 2006 - 2007 (Video) (10min)
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→ Buy more dollars
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 16:03 ET by Cool ArrowTomorrow looks like a good day to buy citigroup, but I wouldn't hold it all day.
Actually, in the past month
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 16:20 ET by BDActually, in the past month I have moved to Global funds based on a realization that Keynsian economics ala Obama will not be doing my US funds any favors.
In this case it is base don future events, having NOTHING to do with the past events.
Depends on Obama
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:13 ET by Gat New YorkI was listening to Obama wail away at how bad the economy will be which was extremely disturbing. Talking down an economy as even a President-elect is irresponsible and dangerous.
First regarding the stock market dip, the Dow Industrial Index shows that the greatest sell off was during the Carter Stagflation period and this sell off is comparable to other sell offs during a recession.
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/dow-long.html
The ’29 Crash was a 70% sell off.
Unemployment claims are currently 6.5% and will probably go over 7.0%. Just for perspective the unemployment level under the Carter Stagflation reached 10.8%. The Depression levels were in the mid teens to mid 20’s.
Any resemblance to the Great Depression has been grossly irresponsible by the media and are plain ignorant.
The current deep sell off began to happen the day after the election of Obama. No surprise. Wall Street and investment managers see a man with no resume – no history – no one named to be Sec. of Treasury – and a whole lot of empty promises that if acted on will sink the economy into a depression. Much the same way FDR took a deep recession and created a Great Depression.
FDR took office in 1933 and immediately embarked on The New Deal. If it was so successful then why did the economic situation only get worse and last for 7 (seven) years? In fact the only event that took us out of it was our entry into World War II.
I agree, gat.... I am the
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:28 ET by motherbeltI agree, gat....
I am the first to admit I don't know much about how the economy works, but even I know that when a new President is elected and the market tanks, that means they're not lhappy about what's coming.
Agreed about Obamanomics
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:34 ET by PopularTechWhat he does will determine what eventually happens with the economy. Obama could drastically cut government spending and cut taxes and we will just have a recession and recover or he could put us into a depression with the New Deal Part II.
The big problem is the amount of inflation Bernanke and Paulson are creating is on a massive scale. The one benefit to the average person is when an economy goes into recession prices go down, inflation takes that benefit away, which is what makes this more dangerous.
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Thanks PopTech
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 15:39 ET by JWFThose are opinions. No one knows for sure what will happen. If they did, we would know what to do to stop it.
Don't forget, we do not live in a vacuum, this is a WORLD problem. So.... Ok, you dump your dollars, where are you gonna go? Saudi currency? The loonie? Yen? We still have the most stable currency on the planet. We have a stable government in no danger of collapse and a military unmatched to ensure the dollar sticks around.
Sincerely,
a Veteran of a 1000 psychic wars.
It will get much worse
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 11:47 ET by dscottIt will get much worse because government leaders wanting to appear they are doing something will inevitably do the wrong thing. Obama's 2.5 million jobs speech already indicates they will do precisely the wrong things under the guise WE MUST DO SOMETHING pushing a PC green agenda. NO, YOU MUST NOT DO THE WRONG THING.
Myth: Government Spending ‘Stimulates’ the Economy
So is this the right recipe to boost a flagging economy? Keynesian theory sounds good, and it would be nice if it made sense, but it has a rather glaring logical fallacy. It overlooks the fact that, in the real world, government can’t inject money into the economy without first taking money out of the economy. Put more bluntly, Keynesianism only looks at one-half of the equation. It conveniently ignores the fact that any money that the government puts in the economy’s right pocket is money that is first removed from the economy’s left pocket. As such, there is no increase in what Keynesians refer to as aggregate demand. The bottom line is that Keynesianism doesn’t boost national income, it merely redistributes it.
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/myth-government-spending-stimulates-the-economy/
Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.
The bottom line is that
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:32 ET by motherbeltThe bottom line is that Keynesianism doesn’t boost national income, it merely redistributes it.
Isn't that what Obama wants?
We're all going to get rich by spending billions (on greening the economy).
We can have our cake and eat it too!
I read the Speach
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 13:34 ET by NorthCoasterand I thought "What are you talking about?" Who are you talking to who is going to bed daily wondering about how to pay the bills and such? We have some and I emphasize some, friends who have financial issues here on the North Coast of Ohio. We see the highest unemployment rate in the state in Toledo and most everyone here is working steadily. The biggest problem is the Democrat/Media stoked Recession which has caused banks and investors to hold on to their cash or divest themselves of investments to lock in past gains.
Make the banks take the bailout money and begin to free up business credit and things will recover. Keep the Government out of make-work programs and spend money for training instead of wasteful programs. Hold off on tax increaseses for at least 2 years. The economy will begin to recover fairly quickly.
Rhodes Scholarship
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:16 ET by ricklailAnyone that watched the Maryland-FSU game last night knows that FSU defensive back Myron Rolle was selected as a Rhodes Scholar. I maybe wrong here but it appears to me that you have to espouse pretty liberal views to be selected. I base this assumption on people like Bill Clinton and former Senator Bill Bradley having been Rhodes Scholars. Didn't Cecil Rhodes pretty much hold to one world government? I may be way off base. If so please straighten me out. It is just my perception of the Rhodes Scholarship and Oxford Unversity in general.
YOU CAN KEEP "THE CHANGE" PALIN 2012
Ignorance
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:21 ET by iveseenitallThere's a report out regarding American citizen's ignorance about basic civics and American history. It states that those tested included "elected officials". Average score on this test---47%. Is this a surprise? I was commenting to someone the other day that we are now being "led" by the largest group of immature, ignorant individuals in the history of this nation. It's not necessarily their I.Q., although that is questionable in many cases, it is their ignorance and their lack of desire to seek the truth. "Whatever" is the watchword today. Ignorance got Barry elected and ignorance is what he and his thugs depend upon. He did it in Chicago and will do it as POTUS. But where do you go for help? The MSM and Congress are the same group of adolescents who play their "games" instead of doing their jobs and meeting their Constitutional responsibilities. And speaking of responsibilities, judging by the test results, our public "schools" abdicated theirs many years ago. Sad.
NEVER,NEVER trust a "liberal"
Off the cliff
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:18 ET by nkviking75It'll be like a Road Runner cartoon. Somehow the coyote (the economy) will run off the edge of a cliff, then screech to a halt in midair, looking confused. The Road Runner (the Dems) will hand him an anvil, and the coyote will begin his long, slow fall to the canyon floor.
Welcome to the era of unity, you racist!
Just trying to lighten
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:39 ET by motherbeltJust trying to lighten things up a little, before my head explodes:
On the positive side, maybe we can look forward to this:
Under Obama, Will Smoking Be Cool Again?
Pam Meister, whose pieces have appeared here, is the author.
First of all, I find it interesting that the media have religiously avoided any discussion of Obama's smoking, lest their messiah prove to have feet of clay.
And previously, some were even seeing it as sexy....one female journalist described it as having "fire in his hand."
If he can get away with this grievous offense against society, is there nothing they won't excuse in him?
smoking
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:45 ET by katainkentsmoking had better be cool again - else we might never see the dollars from the completely entangled anti-smoking campaign. Oh, the irony!
member of the Conservative Independant Witness Protection Program since Nov. 5, 2008
the ants and the grasshopper
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 12:47 ET by katainkentI think that us 'ants' have a far better chance of weathering the coming winter than the grasshoppers.
member of the Conservative Independant Witness Protection Program since Nov. 5, 2008
Until the grasshoppers force the ants to "share".
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 13:12 ET by PopularTechUntil the grasshoppers force the ants to "share".
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oh sure spoil my positive
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 13:30 ET by katainkentoh sure spoil my positive groove :)
Trying to think of "A Bug's Life" and how the Grasshoppers got overthrown after they came and forced the ants to share... I think the ants can still win.
member of the Conservative Independant Witness Protection Program since Nov. 5, 2008
Dollar Perma-Bears
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 13:41 ET by Noel SheppardFolks,
I must say that I get a kick out of the dollar perma-bears -- the folks who no matter what is going on in the global economy, and no matter what is happening in the currency markets, believe the dollar will go lower.
After all, the dollar index is currently at its highest level since 2005, and is up more than 20 percent since July:
Isn't it interesting that as the financial crisis worsened, and markets all over the world collapsed, our dollar rallied AND RALLIED BIG!
Why? Because international investors, bankers, hedge fund managers, and traders came to the conclusion that the dollar and U.S. treasuries are the ONLY SAFE INVESTMENT IN THE WORLD. Take a look at what's been happening in U.S. treasuries:
Yeah, folks: everybody hates the dollar -- that's why it and our treasuries are rallying while virtually every other asset on the planet including stocks, corporate bonds, real estate, commodities, gold and silver -- is plummeting.
Let's understand something: one of the reasons for the dollar's decline since 2002 was the reduction in investment fears globally. As the economies of emerging markets improved, money flocked out of America into riskier asset plays. Now that everyone is unwinding out of such things, the only safe asset is right here.
As a result, the only reason the dollar will sell off at some point in the future is because the recession is believed to be ending, and fear in the markets is waning. At that point, people will feel comfortable investing in something other than our dollar and our treasuries, and they will both decline.
Until that point comes, our dollar and our treasuries will continue to be the investment of choice all around the world, and those shorting both will get killed. ns
Noel - you have a way with words
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 13:48 ET by Free StinkerDollar Perma-Bears. What a great term. ;-)
I love it!
"Gov. Palin has been subjected to one of the most massive and dishonest pile-on smear attacks in the history of liberal media." -- Lowell Ponte
If all things were equal and
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 13:52 ET by dscottIf all things were equal and Dems weren't running us over a cliff, I might agree with you. Problem is even according to your graph when compared to the price of oil shows the dollar's strength is contingent on the price of oil. Now let's throw one other thing that is not equal, that being the desparation of the Dems to solve the problem via Keynesian methods, once they run out of money to borrow from all the proposed government deficit spending, they WILL print money en mass to float more so called economic activity. No one believed last year government officials would walk off the cliff, they did, and now they are really to tell the rest of the lemmings to jump with them.
Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.
Dan
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 14:12 ET by Noel SheppardDan,
Contrary to the BDS meme that the lower dollar caused oil prices to rise the past few years, there is actually no historically significant inverse relationship between these commodities. There are many periods in history when they both declined at the same time, and many when they both rose. That oil rose as the dollar declined for most of the past six years is, in my view, just part of the movement out of the dollar and US treasuries into riskier investments.
Understand that one hedge fund strategy was to be short the dollar, and long oil. What do you think that does to oil and to the dollar? In fact, as you're likely aware, given how low our interest rates have been versus just about every country other than Japan, our dollar has been the source of a carry trade whereby one borrows money here to invest abroad thereby reducing the value of our currency once it's converted.
I suggest very strongly that people like Soros and others were borrowing money here to invest in oil on London's ICE where there are NO position limits and NO large trade reporting requirements. How much do you think THAT carry trade impacted our dollar and oil.
In the end, it's been part of BDS to blame the lower dollar for rising oil prices. Frankly, if you want to make that connection, it is MUCH MORE LIKELY that rising oil prices added to the decline of the dollar, and NOT vice versa. ns
That is exactly my
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 18:32 ET by dscottThat is exactly my contention, the price of oil affected the value of the dollar. Since both the dollar and oil are fungible commodities, oil = dollar, (Euro is NOT fungible) then any rise in the price of oil automatically devalues it against the Euro. E.g. oil rises from $50 to $60 barrel, the Euro's value being mostly pegged to oil will rise against the dollar (dollar fall against the Euro). This is not quite a fixed proportionate relationship. The Euro didn't double or triple in value when the price of oil was $140/barrel, but it was much higher than now. With the fall of oil denominated in dollars down to $50/barrel, the Euro has fallen in value against the dollar (dollar now stronger because it now can buy more). This is also why Iran and Venezuela are demanding production cut backs since they denominated most of their oil in Euros, they got creamed when the price of oil dropped from $140 to $50/barrel.
Don't think Soros lost any money on this deal either, he rolled from the Euro to the Dollar as the price of oil dropped, just as he rode the Euro when the price of oil went up in dollars. Oil was the agent of the arbitrage.
Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.
You need to be quiet.
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 19:27 ET by JWFAre you seriously trying to tell us a currency is a commodity?
Yes JWF, the US currency is
Mon, 11/24/2008 - 11:16 ET by dscottYes JWF, the US currency is a commodity, that is why it is fungible like oil due it it's ubiquitous nature. Fungible. The reason why is the dollar is the de facto world reserve currency because everyone on this planet values it as so. Not all currencies are fungible, the Euro is not a commodity because it is NOT Fungible since it is not sought around the world like the dollar is. Look at both of Noel's charts, notice the inverse relationship between the value of the dollar index versus the price of oil?
On the flip side and this is the really scary part, a product ceases to be fungible when a substancial number of people decide the item no longer is usable in exchange for another. If the morons in government start printing money in excess of wealth creation by private enterprise, the value of the dollar will plummet. The morons may decide to put the cart before the horse and figure if liquidity is the issue after sopping up all the private sector dollars from all their failed bail out attempts, they might print money in excess of private wealth creation. In doing so, the value falls due to excess supply like any other commodity. When they do that, the price of oil will rise despite the low demand since oil producers will respond in kind to flooding the market with dollars. Then we will have the nightmare scenerio of spiraling energy prices, idiot government morons printing more money to fund more government handouts and everyone loosing their jobs from hyper inflation. Remember WWI Germany? That's what happened.
The Dems are complete morons with money, all they know is how to throw money at a problem hoping it will get solved somehow, it's their track record, why should they do any different? Hasn't Obama already named $500 billion for another stimulous package? That's where fatal conceit fully takes hold, the idea that government can pump enough cash around to keep things going. It doesn't work that way but you know, we are all going to go through their little learning exercise with them whether we want to or not. Every dollar the morons spend on the bailout must come from somewhere... guess where??? And when they can't tax and borrow enough, they then print money.
Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.
Very Very Very good post!
Mon, 11/24/2008 - 17:38 ET by JWFToo bad I did not read a word of it. Currency is not a commodity. EVER! I would call you an idiot, but you did put a lot of effort into your completely ass backward long winded oh what was it? I don't know, did not read it.
Clue 1: start out with a insightful premise. Currency is not a commodity. Why would anyone read anything after your first sentence?
Clue 2: I politely tried to correct you the first time. LISTEN! This is how we get smarter. Listen to smarter people. I did it. Now it is your turn.
Sincerely,
a Veteran of a 1000 psychic wars.
When Obama and company
Tue, 11/25/2008 - 09:35 ET by dscottWhen Obama and company start running the printing presses in overtime you will change your tune. Everything is subject to the Laws of Supply and Demand, even the dollar.
Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.
You need to be quiet.
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 19:32 ET by JWFAre you seriously trying to tell us the dollar strength depends entirely upon the price of oil. Nothing else affects the dollar?
con⋅tin⋅gent
–adjective 1. dependent for existence, occurrence, character, etc., on something not yet certain; conditional (often fol. by on or upon): Our plans are contingent on the weather.
Sincerely,
a Veteran of a 1000 psychic wars.
...our dollar and our
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 13:56 ET by R D Helm...our dollar and our treasuries will continue to be the investment of
choice all around the world, and those shorting both will get killed.
With any luck, one of them will be George Soros. :-)
-Dave
Did this country just elect Obama/Biden, or was it Soros/Ayers?
hmm
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 14:02 ET by katainkentthe dollar is a commodity, and like any other commodity it should have a finite number of resources and only economic growth should be the logical reason for an increase for any resource. If the US Gov't turns to simply printing its own money I would think that for it to retain an equitable value to other commodities, the value of the dollar would have to drop.
member of the Conservative Independant Witness Protection Program since Nov. 5, 2008
kata
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 14:25 ET by Noel Sheppardkata,
You would think that. However, the value of currencies is speculated on. As such, the normal supply-demand equation is perverted by such speculation.
Consider as an example what's happened to oil prices the past 21 months:
Do you think anything transpired with supply and/or demand of oil in the past 21 months that accounts for an almost 200 percent rise and a subsequent 65 percent decline?
Not at all. This was a speculative bubble. And, as currencies trade on commodities exchanges all around the world, their value is also speculative.
With all the money that we have pumped into the system the past three months as this financial crisis heightened, one would expect our dollar to decline, right? Well, it hasn't because the demand on exchanges all over the world has exploded. Make sense? ns
yes
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 14:41 ET by katainkentit does make sense (and I am having a little chart envy here ;))
I understand some of what happened to the oil markets. Some speculator said "oil at $200 a barrel is not an unreasonable expectation" and people rolled with it. I don't pretend have a huge understanding of the futures market but I do understand people were betting against a demand that just didnt happen or a lack of supply that was what... 1-2% down? And lost a considerable amount of money doing so. Unfortunately so did us poor folks at the pump.
you present a good argument... are you trying to say then we shouldnt expect inflation?
member of the Conservative Independant Witness Protection Program since Nov. 5, 2008
kata
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 16:41 ET by Noel Sheppardkata,
Inflation? Inflation right now would be good news. Our problem now is deflation, which is what we're trying to stop.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, prices going up is better than prices going down. When prices on goods and services decline, so do the profit margins of companies which forces them to lay people off thereby reducing the number of consumers purchasing product thereby furthering cutting prices thereby further reducing profit margins...etc., etc. This is a feedback loop that once it begins, it's very difficult to reverse.
This is what we want to stop at all costs, for if we don't, recession will become depression very quickly, and our lives will change for the worse for many years. ns
Noel on a side note
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 19:26 ET by shawn228Don't forget after almost 2 yrs , Jack Bauer is back tonight.
He had my vote
shawn
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 19:35 ET by Noel Sheppardshawn,
You betcha. Can't wait. ns
almost missed it.
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 23:54 ET by katainkentalmost missed it. dvr'ing it now :)
member of the Conservative Independant Witness Protection Program since Nov. 5, 2008
Yes a little inflation
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 23:53 ET by katainkentYes a little inflation would be good. Controlled inflation is your friend! What I am concerned about is rampant uncontrolled inflation. Perhaps its because I remember the 70's stagflation too well (sitting in line with my mother waiting for a tank of gas for hours) and don't have enough of a grasp on what happened in the 30's.
We (husband and I) are reading Amity Shlaes new book. He is a numbers freak. I am muddling through :) Hopefully it will help with some insight. Mostly what I've learned through the years is that it is a delicate balance that does best with the least amount of meddling possible.
I appreciate you taking the time to answer some of my questions :)
~kat
member of the Conservative Independant Witness Protection Program since Nov. 5, 2008
kata
Mon, 11/24/2008 - 00:02 ET by Noel Sheppardkata,
Remember, the 70's stagflation began with an oil explosion that caused a recession, BUT oil prices didn't recede. As a result, prices continued to excelerate even as unemployment rose and the GNP declined.
This time, oil prices skyrocketed, and then quickly retreated. So, right now there's nothing to cause prices to rise. October's CPI declined by the most in one month since that stat was created.
Stagflation isn't a worry right now. Again, what we all have to be concerned with is a deflation spiral that devastates the economy for years. ns
well I am guiltily happy
Mon, 11/24/2008 - 13:46 ET by katainkentwell I am guiltily happy the oil prices are down but have to say I am a little surprised that OPEC's nudge to supply hasn't seemed to make a difference and we're now paying about $1.78 here in WA.
Figuring in some things that are on the table right now such as universal health care, this $4K college credit and our little tax cut (welfare) we would have considered ourselves sitting quite pretty financially if we had bought the KoolAid, but I just cant see a lot of this being pulled off. I just don't see where the money could possibly come from. Especially when it seems were sort of just cheating and dipping into the monopoly money bank.
But to get back to the point of this thread! It will be interesting what happens in the coming months, to be sure. I don't think we've seen the worst of it yet. The people speaking out on capital hill, people I used to have a thimbleful of confidence in are all about more programs and more government (lord, even Ben Stein!) and it has me very nervous.
member of the Conservative Independant Witness Protection Program since Nov. 5, 2008
Noel: Thank you for that
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 16:23 ET by BDNoel:
Thank you for that analysis, I find it instructive.
BD
FYI- Here is the
Wed, 11/26/2008 - 12:50 ET by dscottFYI- Here is the implication of your observation regarding interest rates:
The government issued bond interest rates are artifically low. Because private capital all around the world is flowing to the US Treasury since with all the US government guarantees they feel safe to park their money here even if it gets next to nothing. The result is this, siphoning off money from everyone else's economy to float ours. In the ending this is self defeating as foreign economies are starved for capital then go into a deeper recession and thus the downward spiral begins. Who needs the Taft Hartley act to initiate a trade war? The US Treasury just sucked the life out of the rest of the world's economies to temporarily prop up our economy.
The libs wail, "WE MUST DO SOMETHING!" But why must it be the wrong thing?
Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.
Obama's smoking
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 14:32 ET by jackie3For the most part his smoking will not be mentioned. When it is I'm sure it will be sensationalized and thus only someone as holy and godly as Obama can handle the pressure.
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.
I'm no economist
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 14:58 ET by jackie3I really don't understand most of what drives the value of the dollar and such. But I can tell you that oil prices have made a bad situation worse. The cost of filling my 10 gallon gas tank quadrupled to over 40 dollars. The cost of food has risen over the last 2 years far more than it should have. Deliveries for meds and such have added extra "gas fees." The cost to heat my home has also quadrupled in the past 2 years. 400 hundred gallon oil tank cost over a thousand dollars to fill the last time.
Meanwhile our income has gone down with pay freezes and lack of jobs. We started living on credit more and more. Now, the credit is maxed out. We have defaulted on credit cards to pay regular bills. BK laws have made filing very difficult and lawyer cost are very high.
The reason people aren't buying anything is because we don't have any money to spend. Manufacturing is nearly dead in the USA. Good paying jobs are in the health care fields and schools. I nor my hubby are "nurse" material. I know a working family that relies on Wal-mart as the main source of income.
The job market is gone because our jobs have gone overseas and to Mexico. On top of that we have illegal immigrants that come to NYS and take more jobs away from the apple harvest. Matter of fact the farmers don't bother to advertise jobs or hire white people because there is such a huge illegal network. One illegal gets sent away and 2 more are there to take his place.
People aren't hording money. People like me, are barely getting buy and defaulting on credit cards to pay their mortgage. Because there is no jobs there is no money to buy things in the store. Unless we find away to bring back good paying jobs this cycle will continue.
If you want our economy to turn around the first thing we need to do is sell manufactured good overseas. Bring manufacturing jobs and industry back to the US. Stop using slave labor from china and Mexico.
It's not a case of saving for a rainy day. We, people living pay check to pay check like me, have been immersed in a flood. There is no way out. Even if gas prices stay down there is still the job loss to think about. The lack of manufacturing sales abroad and at home.
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.
The cost of filling my 10
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 16:32 ET by BDThe cost of filling my 10 gallon gas tank quadrupled to over 40 dollars.
Meanwhile our income has gone down with pay freezes and lack of jobs.
BK laws have made filing very difficult and lawyer cost are very high.
The reason people aren't buying anything is because we don't have any money to spend. Manufacturing is nearly dead in the USA.
People aren't hording money.
I know it is tough to lose manufacturing jobs and all
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 19:47 ET by JWFThere were plenty of manufacturing jobs 100 years ago. In factories all over. It was hot sweaty grueling work.
Prior to that, most of the jobs were the agricultural type. Long grueling work.
Do we really mourn the loss all that much? A lot of those jobs were lost to machinery - automated machinery & robots. Why does no one lament the loss of those jobs?
Manufacturing is not dead. It will come back when we can compete.
Sincerely,
a Veteran of a 1000 psychic wars.
Yes, after all, the number
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 20:23 ET by BDYes, after all, the number of workers assembling buggy whips is smaller than the number of kids playtesting the latest computer game.
If you only see you future as an ace buggy whip assembler, you are screwed....
Big 3 Bailout
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 15:19 ET by ThisnThatGo to http://www.chevrolet.com/. What's the most prominant thing you see? A "news" link that urges you to "support the auto industry". And what's that, you ask? A whole bunch of stuff about contacting your representative because it's "time to save the US Auto Industry". A whole bunch of stuff about how the auto industry is vital to our nation. And warnings on the devastating effects of an industry collapse.
What's missing, you might ask? That's right -- there is no information at all on what the auto industry is doing to curtail costs and become more competitive. It's all about bailout money -- nothing at all about what GM has done the past 30 years to get into this position.
I say -- let them sink.
___________________________________
If you can read this, thank a teacher. If it is in English, thank a Soldier. - My barber
Bailout...
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 18:44 ET by JDWHow would more drilling affect the auto industry?
JDW
DAILY WAVE
RINO PURGE CHAT
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 20:23 ET by Free StinkerRINO PURGE CHAT
You guys know where it is . . . ;-)
"Gov. Palin has been subjected to one of the most massive and dishonest pile-on smear attacks in the history of liberal media." -- Lowell Ponte
SIGN THE PETITION!
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 16:28 ET by marvlDemand that Obama's birth certificate be made public.
See here: http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=81550
More twisted logic
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 16:39 ET by ThisnThateHarmony is being sued by queers in California. Seems like a private business can't sell a specific product anymore. eHarmony's product is matching men and women -- not men and men, not women and women. Yet, the twisted logic people say -- "that isn't fair (snif, snif). You have to change your product line to suit us and our perverted ways".
What's worse is that the courts agree, and the msm is too lazy to point out the real problem with the complaint. eHarmony is not preventing queers from seeking out the opposite sex -- i.e., paying for the product-line that's eHarmony's business. But that doesn't matter anymore. A little complaint, and all hell breaks loose, and society continues to go down the rat-hole of political correctness.
___________________________________
If you can read this, thank a teacher. If it is in English, thank a Soldier. - My barber
Here's a reason why...
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 18:15 ET by mizflame98men shouldn't have nude pics of their wife on a cell phone.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27867839/?GT1=43001
what an idiot!!!
Perfect Demotivator for the Obama Administration
http://www.despair.com/government.html
Bailout...
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 18:54 ET by JDWWatch/listen for an announcement tomorrow of Citi and our wonderful gov creating a 'new bad bank'.
JDW
DAILY WAVE
Apparently the pirates of
Sun, 11/23/2008 - 19:46 ET by ConservativeRexApparently the pirates of Somali can comiserate with the pirates on the left hand side of congress.
It's tough work but some one has to do it. If only the end results proscribed to the pirates of Somali could be applied to the left hand side of congress.
That might cause an uproar in more than just the U.N.
I still wonder if a barrel of oil drops to $8 a barrel as it did in the early '80's would the cry for bailing out the Oil Company's be as loud by our domestic pirates? Almost all of the Oil Company's are unionized too. Steelworkers union as a matter of fact.
Gawd almighty we're stuck with a load of knuckleheads.
Apply This
Mon, 11/24/2008 - 11:19 ET by kilrodI figure you could apply this to the economy somewhere, besides we need a little humor, and besides, i despise dst, i call it "communist time" and our regular old time "Gods Time". I reckon dst and cuttin of the top of the blanket and sewin it back on the bottom in the economy will fit right in with the o-Dumb-uh-uh regime.!!!!!!!!!
(GRINS) kilrod
Daylight Saving Time Explained
As the rest of the country changed their clocks
once again on November 2nd in accordance with the laws of
daylight saving time, folks in Arizona do not change their
clocks at any time. Perhaps it is better explained this way,
as a wise old Arizona Indian chief once said when daylight
saving was explained to him:
"Only a white man would believe that you could cut a
foot off the top of a blanket and sew it to the bottom of a
blanket and have a longer blanket."
Remember, only two defining forces have ever offered to die for you, Jesus Christ and the American Soldier