Topics in today's show: Is Sarah Palin helping GOP in congressional polls? CNN repeats rumors about Sara Palin it had already debunked, musician Sarah McLachlan splits from her hubby.
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Nov 4th Predictions...
September 19, 2008 - 06:43 ET by smartestmaninamericaI'VE TAKEN OUT MY CRYSTAL BALL THIS MORNING AND HERE IS WHAT I AM SEEING:
Obama's recent surge can be attributed to 3 things:
1. The economic meltdown and the resulting "anybody but them" backlash towards Republicans.
2. The "defrothing" of the Palin Iconic Bubble.
3. Just some really awful ads run by McCain (Obama fumbled on his own 2 yard line and McCain threw an interception in the endzone).
WHAT I SEE GOING FORWARD:
1. The market is way oversold here and should rally quite strongly on effective and decisive actions taken by the Bush Administration and the Fed. The Dow could be 1500 off its recent lows by election day. You have heard of peaking too early? The economy tanked too early to benefit Obama in 2 months.
2. Gas prices will be down close to $3.00 a gallon by election day. People vote with their pocket books.
3. Sarah Palin will have become less "iconic" and more "substantive and reliable" by election day. She will have gone in people's minds from smoke to fire.
4. I think that John McCain may have learned his lesson on the idiotic ads, whereas (if the recent "McCain is a Bigot" ad) is any indication, Team Obama is taking the A-Train to Stupidville.
5. If this race looks really close coming down the stretch and the Left thinks it may lose, look for the MSM and Moonbat 527 groups to become increasingly shrill and extreme in their attacks on McCain/Palin. Obama must either disavow them and risk alienating the fringe portion of his base, or say nothing and sound less and less like a "post-partisan, change" type of candidate.
6. With all the looneys in the world, there is a good chance someone will blow up somebody or some country will invade some other country and America's attention will refocus on security, massive winner for McCain.
CONCLUSION:
This will likely be a 1-2 point race and look more like 2004 than most people think. The economy will likely be surging, gas and food prices will be lower and people will feel better about their futures.
If the economy is in recovery, Obama loses the "we're not them" advantage and if there is international unrest, McCain increases that advantage.
As we look back on Nov 5th, the talking heads will probably surmise that Obama surged too soon and that the recovering economy/international unrest saved McCain's bacon.
P.S., The Democrat Primaries this year told us one important thing. As the finish line approaches, people shift from style to substance. Hillary Clinton was winning priamries by large double-digits as Obama limped across the finish line.
The American electorate has also shown this tendency to more from style to substance in the past as election dat approaches. this will be especially true in times as uncertain as these.
Aargh! ***** "People
September 19, 2008 - 07:24 ET by Hero SquadAargh!
*****
"People only insist that a debate stop when they are afraid of what might be learned if it continues." - George Will
POLL SPEAK
September 19, 2008 - 08:05 ET by billb"Obama beats McCain 48% to 47%.
McCain ahead 48% to 45%, "WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR."
More Predictions...
September 19, 2008 - 08:06 ET by smartestmaninamericaI think you would agree with me that nobody is gonna run away with this thing. Only one poll on one day put Obama over 50% at the height of his post-convention surge.
To win this thing (3rd party candidates likely will not factor at all), Obama will need to do something Democrats have only done twice in 60 years and not at all in the last 30 years - get more than 50% of the popular vote.
Right now, there is a still a lot of "benefit-of-the-doubt" built into Obama's support as, you will have to admit, that support is based largely upon his promises for the future as opposed to his deeds of the past.
As a matter of fact, to believe Obama will actually govern as he is now campaigning (a moderate on taxes, defense and government spending), we have to copletely discount everything we know of him from his last 10 years in office.
Not only is Obama saying to the electorate, "Believe I can do things I've never done", he is saying "Believe I won't do the things I have done".
As they say, "past is prologue". Prior behavior predicts future actions. That's why we have things like credit scores.
It is almost as if Obama expects someone to sprinkle "change dust" on him on Inauguration Day and turn him into a true "Agent of Change" backed up by actions and not just talk.
If being an "Agent of Change" were declared illegal and Obama was arrested, would there be enough evidence from his last 10 years in office to convict him?
Obama preaches "Change We Can Believe In", because it takes a big dose of faith to believe that Obama can actually CHANGE anything as opposed to just pontificating about it. There are "talkers" and there are "doers". If the last 10 years provides any prism into the future, Obama is the former.
Actually, there is one clear-cut example of change that Obama has brought about in the last 10 years. He has CHANGED pretty much every position he ran on in the Primaries. That is REAL CHANGE I can see with my own eyes.
CONCLUSION:
All other things be equal, the conservative tide always rises the last week before the election as people choose substance over style, especially during troubling times as these are.
Unless Barack has a 5 point lead a week before the election, he loses by 1-2 points.
predictions
September 19, 2008 - 08:12 ET by AgnosticIf elected Sen Obama does not really have to do much if Pelosi is still controlling the house. The top of the Democratic Party will hammer home their agenda while Obama is only too happy to sign off on any bill that pushes us towards his ideas of an Utopian society and the party leaders will only be too happy to allow him to have his programs in exchange for his support. Pelosi, Biden and Reid with unchecked power scare me more than Obama ever will.
NewsBusted Review
September 19, 2008 - 10:50 ET by pearlI did not like the first 3 or 4 episodes of NewsBusted, but you quickly hit your mark. I rarely miss an episode now.
However, the MRC logo needs an upgrade.
CNN..right hand...leftist
September 19, 2008 - 12:13 ET by bigtimerCNN..right hand...leftist hand...ROFL...the Churches too...
As always...thanks for the laughter this morning...
....great job all...
"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh