Open Thread


For general discussion and debate. Possible talking point: Has the oil bubble finally burst?

If the trend continues into September at anything like the same rate of descent, most of the inflationary spike of the past 12 months will miraculously have been sliced away. This is a dramatic reversal, and it is worth trying to work out why it is happening and what it means. Just possibly, it means that what investors refer to in shorthand as the great "oil up" story has finally revealed itself not as the fundamental reflection of scarce supply that its adherents liked to claim, but as a simple, speculative bubble that was always going to burst.

Bear in mind that commodity prices are also plummeting, and the dollar is screaming. Read the entire piece...let the debate begin.

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Bias in the Assassination Threat?

Does anyone else find the story about the man held for an assassination threat on Obama a bit, well, biased?

Man held for alleged Obama assassination threat

Not that he shouldn't be dealt with severely for this. But my concern comes in paragraph SIX:

"A classmate said that, one day after class, she also heard Geisel say "that he hated George W. Bush and that he wanted to put a bullet in the president's head."

The rest of this story, before and after, is all about the Obama threat.

Honestly, does the threat of killing the president rate so far below that of someone running for president? 

If that's not a textbook example of media bias, I'm not sure what is!

*****

"People only insist that a debate stop when they are afraid of what might be learned if it continues." - George Will 

Definite Bias

I'm surprised that even TownHall.com is reporting it as an Obama story.

Here's a good commentary on it.

http://confederateyankee.mu.nu/archives/270213.php

 Honestly, does the threat

 Honestly, does the threat of killing the president rate so far below that of someone running for president? 

 You are kidding right? They are praying for Bush to be dead, but dont worry. The Presidents life will be taken seriously once a Dem is holding the office. : ]

"Television is a freak show" Bernie Goldberg

oil prices

Hopefully, they will keep dropping. I am trying to be optimistic, but anything can trigger them to go up again.

Looks like war might break out in Georgia, not sure if that will cause them to rise, since they are not near any pipelines, but sometimes news of war can be very unsettling. I am also liking the news of the US dollar going up as Unsane would say I have a currency fetish.:-)

Real life video games are cool

Shawn what war in

Shawn what war in Georgia?  Do you mean a Civil War renactment, I thought those were done already.

Nuke em til they glow then shoot em in the dark.

georgia old soviet union

georgia old soviet union georgia 

Journalism is the opium of the liberals

Noel Sheppard - Is This Short Side Oil Speculation?

Noel,

You have been a strong voice at NewsBusters on the issue of long side speculators driving the price of oil higher, and you have suggested market reforms to stop long side speculation.

The price of oil has dropped 22% in three weeks. 

Is the sudden reversal in oil prices being caused by short side speculators?

Should we implement new market reforms that will stop short side speculators from driving the price of oil down?

you're right zee

These speculators are obviously manipulating the price, and that's bad! The government need to stop these people! With gas dropping 40 cents a gallon in less than a month, our dreams of economic collapse are slipping away!

Don't you just love this headline...

'Oil halts 5 day skid - Rebounds $5'

At first glance, it seems like good news. Sorta like talking debits and credits to a bookkeeper!

I'm waiting for the headline "Oil market collapses. Crude drops $50/bbl"

;-)

www.ArmchairEnergist...

ZS

ZS,

Definitely. When there is suddenly an economic crisis caused by oil prices being TOO LOW, and we need to GET THEM HIGHER to protect ourselves from financial doom, we should definitely look to curbing short activity.

Of course, as I expressed to sarc, since open interest is declining as prices decline, this selloff is being caused by long liquidation and NOT short sales. ns

War

Alabama invaded.

states rights! wish i was

states rights! wish i was in dixie, hurray 

Journalism is the opium of the liberals

Wow Dan and TM

Hardy har har. I have a sense of humor just like anyone else. Since both of you are Christian men, I'm kind of surprised you would joke about 2000 men, women and children dead. I guess some people can find humor in anything.

Real life video games are cool

William Tecumseh Sherman

"Shawn what war in Georgia? Do you mean a Civil War renactment, I thought those were done already." I wonder if William Tecumseh Sherman will burn Atlanta and March to the Sea?

 

"War is hell" William Tecumseh Sherman

Carl

Long time no see bud. What movies have you bought on dvd lately :-)

Real life video games are cool

Shawn there is/are!!!!!!

Shawn,

Once again our teachers, congress critters and the general populace have no idea about the rest of the world.  That is a strategic portion of the world as it ties the oil from the east to Europe.  The pipelines go through Georgia, Armenia, Azerbijan, and Turkey before the line meets a distribution point. 

That is why the Russians are interested in the area.  They are taking a page out of the Kosovo mess, we backed the wrong horse, and is using that in S. O.   They pushed a non traditional group into the region, pushing out the original population and now claim that the Russian "citizens" need protecting.

Check out the region on google or whatever you use and you will find this out.  One more reason that Obambi does not need to get elected. 

 

Thx expatriot

I did not know. I frankly surprised at Dan, TM and Sawthelight for making light of people getting killed. This could turn out be very big.

Real life video games are cool

They are not making fun of people getting killed

that is absurd but not surprising from you.

Wow Dee

We don't see eye to eye and everytime we get into, you tend to make in personal and it escalates. I also never said they were making fun of people getting killed, I said they were making light of it. Get your quotes straight.  Can't you just ignore me and stop your obsession? Thx so much:-)

Real life video games are cool

oh that was a big difference - what a joke.

I'm only obsessed with your ignorance. When you post normal stuff - I'm never there. Sorry to disappoint your dreams. Stop saying rude and ignorant things and you'll never notice me.

You need to get it out of your narcissistic head that you are allowed to say ignorant things here and have no one call you one them. I know you think you are some big man on campus that can't be touched but too bad. I"m never going to stop.

Sigh Dee

It seems whenever I go to a religious thread you say it is none of my business, when I got into it with futbol, cool and balboa, you said it it was none on my business.

I am pretending to be a big man on campus, I just want to to have the right to post like anybody else and interact with other posters without having to see you. It was nice and peaceful when you were on vacation.

Whenever I get into it with another poster there you are .....always. Ok Dee it is. You are right okay? Your right.  Can you please leave me alone?

Real life video games are cool

Glad to when you don't say igorant things

you don't own the place and any comments made can be commented on by anyone. Don't insult conservatives with nonsense and you won't notice me. I've told you that 1,000 times.

I'd love not to see you either but this site is for everyone. It's not for you or me but it is for conservatives first and foremost and as a conservative I'll post any time I want to who ever I want. I've told you what to do if you don't want to hear from me.

You have gotten a lot better but your rediculous statements are not immune from criticism. Sorry. Dream on.

Dee

It is a matter of opinion on what comments are ignorant. Some people agree with me, some people do not.

It is not for you to decide. This is nothing but harrassment, just pay my protection money and you will leave me alone huh?

Again, just leave me alone. It is none of your business how I interact with other posters. If our discussions are productive, that is one thing but they are not. 

Real life video games are cool

It's not your playground Shawn

we are all allowed to jump on any piece of equipment at anytime. Deal with it. I know bullies are really just big babies who don't like to be confronted. Too bad. I'm not afraid.

I wasn't even going to post here and was going to give you the last word like I did the last few times but seeing as you like to edit your posts after the fact, I guess I should always post something.

OIC

When I jump into someone elses thread, It is none of my business. Use any piece of equipment you want Dee, you seem partial to the dumbell press :-)

Real life video games are cool

~

~

you seem partial to the

you seem partial to the dumbbell press - I am.  Presses Shawn.  Lest see 2 more ought to allowed for my workout right now. Presses Shawn. Presses Shawn.  There all done doing the dumbbell press, yep pressed on all I want to tonight.

Nuke em til they glow then shoot em in the dark.

good one Dan Real life

excellent Dan - a much better way of saying something similar

to what I had in mind but resisted because mine was more mean. You did it just right.

well thanks

....for holding back. I know you never say mean things:-) In fact I you never do any of the things you get mad at other people for . You don't accuse without proof, you don't go into conservations and bud in and you never edit your post.

Gosh I wish I was a perfect like you. I guess that is why you are known as a goddess huh?  You might want to get your fellow goddess, Aphrodite to help you cheer up a little, lately you resemble Hera. LMAO

Real life video games are cool

abort mission

Dude, seriously, do you really wanna go there this late at night?

This conversation is history now. Count to ten, grit your teeth, chew on some ice, whatever. Just build a bridge. For the sake of us all who enjoy NB.

You got it candance

I would hope that i'm not being singled out. As you can see, I was trying to avoid an argument from the beginning.

Good night.

Real life video games are cool

not singled out

It's not to jump on you or put all the blame on you, and I hope that's not the way it came off. But someone always has to be the one to let it go and IMO that's the best approach here.

~

~

Uh no shawn... I read the

Uh no shawn...

I read the thread, you are trying your best to cause trouble by attempting to get others to criticize the posters you mentioned.

...simple as that...it is obvious to see.

"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh

Yeah Shawn our resident nanny

always trying to make conservatives statements seem outrageous and seen in the worst possible way. It's too bad that people do actually fall for it sometimes. I'm glad that no one has so far on this latest absurdity.

Your right Dee

I am wrong. Can we please stop this now without you trying to escalate this to another level? Please?

Everytime other posters one of our squables, they feel the thread has been hijacked. It is unproductive. I have kept my promise, I have not made any references to you, or mentioned your name. So i'm just asking you to mind your own business when it is concerns me and another poster.

Real life video games are cool

another edited post from Shawn without the lable

which is sneaky and dishonest.

In answer to your question - NO! Never! The answer will be the same everytime you ask it. I'll always respond to illogical political points and bogus attacks on conservatives. The former will never be personal, the latter will be just as personal as the attack made on the conservative.
Maybe some day you will get it - this is not your personal playground and you don't get to have your own turf. I've said all I have to say on this subject for now.

Gee Dee

I look at the time stamps, I made the edit within 3 minutes, which I have seen you do many many times.

I have tried having civil discussions with you, they just don't seem to happen. When you keep harping me, your wasting mine and everybody's time and it is unproductive.

" I've said all I have to say on this subject for now"

hallelujah :-)

 

Real life video games are cool

You are a liar - I have never ever done that

except for typo and spelling mistakes. You really are a piece of work and will stoop to anything

again dee you are right

People just should not make accusastions without backing them up with proof huh? :-)

Real life video games are cool

~

~

hi bt

I asked you a few questions this week, funny you did not respond. Funny the only time you respond is when Dee does.

Real life video games are cool

I respond when I want to

I respond when I want to respond shawn, as you and others know full well...whether Dee or anyone else is here or not.

Btw...just so you know, I was getting ready to send you a post before I saw Dee...I got interrupted by a phone call, then proceeded on...I am my own person shawn, always have been always will be.

As an aside...that was rude what you said to Dee about her being gone, I can also think of a few people here I wouldn't mind taking a long, long vacation.

Works both ways buddy.

"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh

expatriot...I could not

expatriot...

I could not agree more with the sentiments expressed in your post.

"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh

Thanks guys

First off, guys is generic.

I was supposed to go there to assist in training.  Right now it looks like I will be either on hold or canceled.  This is serious stuff and you will not see the MSM cover it except superficially.  They cannot support an evil bunch unless they want to support the Russians.  Don't get me wrong, the people are fine but they deserve a better government than they have.  I will finish now before I really start going on, but a quick reference to Nigerian Oil output, Venezuelan, Mexican and Russian output.  They are all down and they are all nationalized to one extent or another.  Put the pieces together and the puzzle starts becoming visible. There is a lack of supply.  No better reason for us to drill than that.

I'll leave it at that.

 

You are so right expatriot

in this and your previous post. The MSM will never get deeply into it.

There is a supply problem but it's a manufactured problem that is caused by American Dems, enemies of this country, and also opportunistic speculators.

That's because you DO

You DO have a currency fetish! You hinge EVERYTHING on currency!!!

(Yet for some mysterious reason you can't answer why, if currency IS everything, why the British Pound isn't still the world's reserve currency of choice...) 

The Olympics are now under way in Beijing.  May the people of Beijing gt thoroughly sick of hearing The Star Spangled Banner.  May the Beijing Olympic Committee run out of U.S. flags for themedal ceremonies!  USA!  USA!!  USA!!!

We've also been lucky that

We've also been lucky that no "global warming manufactured" tropical storms and hurricanes have really affected the Gulf oil rigs. I'd be interested to see what happens to the price of oil if or when a hurricane does affect these areas.

www.theholyrosary.org

"There is no problem, I tell you, no matter how difficult it is, that we can not resolve by the prayer of the Holy Rosary." -Sister Lucia

Edouard and Dolly

Well, we had Edouard and Dolly already, and they effected some oil-producing areas of the Gulf...with very little effect on oil prices. 

The Olympics are now under way in Beijing.  May the people of Beijing get thoroughly sick of hearing The Star Spangled Banner.  May the Beijing Olympic Committee run out of U.S. flags for themedal ceremonies!  USA!  USA!!  USA!!!

Now the big question

Now the big question is:

How can the MSM spin this before the election so that Obama and other Dems get credit for it and/or benefit politically from it?

1. They will claim the Congressional hearings lead by Dems scared "big oil" executives (like Al Gore) into lowering prices.

2. That there is no longer any need to reconsider our policy of drilling in barren wastelands, er, pristine ecological treasures, and the Republicans were wrong for trying to change such policy based on an event that was "obviously" a short term phenomenon.

"Believe on the Lord Jesus Christ, and thou shalt be saved, and thy house." Acts 16:31

spin

I already heard one comment about the Big Oil execs reducing prices to help out the Republicans.

Yes, but that's today. Give

Yes, but that's today. Give them time to read my idea and they'll sing a different song tomorrow once they figure it out. ;-)

"Believe on the Lord Jesus Christ, and thou shalt be saved, and thy house." Acts 16:31

MSM Spin

"How can the MSM spin this before the election so that Obama and other Dems get credit for it and/or benefit politically from it?"

I envision this NY Slimes Headline: "Oil Prices Continue Slide, Democrats Correct in Calling Republican Drill Scare a Hoax."  

 

Oh, that's good! You should

Oh, that's good! You should work for the NY Slimes.  :-)

"Believe on the Lord Jesus Christ, and thou shalt be saved, and thy house." Acts 16:31

full article

This is the article I expect to see in the coming days:

Congressional Democrats are citing ethanol use, cutback in driving, and a crackdown on speculators as the reasons behind the current slide in oil prices. Oil has dropped more than 2 dollars a barrel since Congress blocked a vote on domestic drilling last week.

"Republicans in the House can give up on their phony revolt," a spokesperson for Nancy Pelosi said. "We have solved the problem without their useles idea for domestic drilling." When asked why the Republicans continue to speak about it, an unnamed source called it a stunt. 

"They're so afraid of losing a veto-proof Congress, they're doing anything to keep their base of far right conservatives happy," our source explained. Congress is currently writing up a report on how much power is being wasted by keeping the lights on in the House during the GOP's revolt.

According to AAA, more Americans than ever have checked their tire pressure, mostly in reaction to Obama calling for proper tire care to boost mileage. Obama's camp couldn't be happier: "We're seeing demand go down as people become more responsible, which is solving the need for the oil we could allegedly have gotten from ANWR."

Obama says his next step is to call for Americans to keep their thermostats at 80 during the summer and 60 during the winter. Republicans have raised concerns about this changing America's standard of living, to which Obama explains that matters of national security cannot be taken lightly.

If the price continues dropping, Democrats foresee the wedge issue of domestic drilling being put to rest forever as Americans come to understand that Obama's plan is working.

Candance, You should be

Candance, You should be receiving a call any moment from a major MSM publisher. This is the kind of journalistic talent they look for. Great spinning! It will not surprise me in the least to see your article show up soon in some major rag...edited, of course, to ensure "authenticity".

"Believe on the Lord Jesus Christ, and thou shalt be saved, and thy house." Acts 16:31

there's nothing that says

A speculative bubble can't accompany a shortage, and even magnify its price effects, just as we've apparently seen recently. Those cheap new cars in China & India need gas just like our cars need it. And I'm beginning to agree that all naked shorting should be outlawed. Wanna short something? Buy & borrow.
JMR

The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.

Another Messiah Media Firewall...

Who is reflecting on the effects of the stronger dollar against the price of oil?

JDW

Not sure what this has to do with what I said, but...

On the subject of the dollar, my reflection looks like: "Central Banks to the rescue. Again."
JMR

The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.

Oil...

Traders are selling crude futures.

The weak dollar increased crude futures and was used as an inflation hedge.

JDW

but who knows

Who's selling how many with such great CFTC data from our "professional" regulators? And again I predict: When-not-if the CFTC fails, they'll ask for even more tax money & get rewarded for their regulatory failure.
JMR

The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.

What?

How is the correction in the oil price long overdue because of anything other than demand?

JDW


DAILY WAVE

What?

How is an article talking about a massive adjustment in the CFTC's regulatory outlook about actual demand?
JMR

The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.

Messiah Media v. ...

intelligent thinking people.

Maybe more limitations on drilling or windfall profit taxes will resolve the problem? Please locate us another article which supports such and use it as an aegis for your argument.

JDW


DAILY WAVE

Huh???

We seem to be talking about 2 separate things. I like the article I linked for what it says, so I'm stickin' with it.
JMR

The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.

sarc

J,

Open interest has been declining since this selloff began: http://futures.tradi...

Please explain to the class how a decline in a commodity contract with open interest also declining is a sign of increased short activity. Please do it without links to Butler, because he also doesn't seem to understand that if short-sales are responsible for a decline in a future's price, open interest HAS TO increase. The very fact that open interest is decreasing as the price goes down INCONTROVERTIBLY means that longs are liquidating.

There are only two ways for open interest to decline: shorts covering and longs liquidating. PERIOD!

I really wish that you'd take some time to educate yourself on this issue before you continue to blame every decline in every commodity on naked short selling. <em> ns

We already had this discussion.

I think there has been plenty of speculation, but there's also been plenty of new demand. Just as I said. If you want no links to Butler go back and reply to the discussion where he WAS linked, as he didn't ever say what you claimed he said, and somehow he's right about silver prices a whole lot over the years compared to other commenters on the 'net.
JMR

The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.

BTW

BTW: Open interest has been plummeting in COMEX silver since July's $19.50 high: http://futures.tradi.... Ask your buddy Butler how this represents increasing naked shorting? LOL! ns

Prices still seem pretty damn healthy

Since we met, despite the normal summer doldrums. I wonder if the CFTC is doing as great of a job regulating silver as they're doing revising figures on oil by 25%? LOL back.
JMR

The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.

My eyes glaze over and my

My eyes glaze over and my jaws go slack when yall start talking about this stuff.  If I drool, just wipe it off please. 

Nuke em til they glow then shoot em in the dark.

Yet another "mistake"

Those black labs look to me like they were dangerous lickers!! Sigh...
JMR

The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.

Repub Mayor?

The story doesn't say, but I wonder if the mayor is a Republican.

If they don't say he

If they don't say he is might be a Dem and the town may be too small to make a difference as he does have a day job not as mayor.

sarc, thanks. I knew you wouldn't let me down. :-)

Seriously, if that story does not prove to one and all how much of a threat the "War on Drugs" is to all of us, you really have to wonder what it is going to take, ya know?

We are not going to save this country by being polite to those who are working tirelessly (and succeeding right handily) at destroying it.

What they *really* don't get

Is that this holy DrugWar they have such faith in despite failure and corruption is, in truth, an underhanded war on the Second Amendment via eviscerating the Fourth (a necessary condition for when they eventually do come for the individual arms protected by the Second -- and they will!).
JMR

The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.

The Obsessive Devotion

Yet another excuse to induce societal rot.  Well done. 

The obsessive devotion continues...

(I now eagerly await Sarc's ad hominem attack...) 

Whoever casts a vote for Barack Obama is nothing more than a common thief.  Whoever fails to vote against him is nothing more than a moral coward.

Why respond in kind?

You've made 0 argument, as usual, and just whined. What's to attack?
JMR

The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.

War on citizens

Here is another link about this story.  http://www.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/08/08/maryland.mayor/index.html.  

"Police said the scheme involved shipping drugs to unsuspecting people's homes and intercepting the packages." 

So, the police knew the occupants of this home were “unsuspecting“ citizens and yet they thought a military style house to house clear and enter style operation was called for?

"Prince George's County police, who were in charge of the raid, issued a statement Friday clearing the couple of involvement and expressing "regret.""

I guess expressing “regrets” clears everything up. How about not terrorizing “unsuspecting citizens”!! Then no “regrets” are necessary.

The thought process of those who are to “protect and serve” is mind numbing. I think to some of these people are mentally unfit for this kind of duty. There are to many combat wanna bes in this kind of work. How many times every day does this kind of thing happen and it doesn’t get much press?

Things like this...

most definitely give cops a bad name. But evidently the Prince George's County Sheriff Department has a history of this kind of thing. From the Sun piece;

Calvo said he wants federal officials to examine policies that he said
have led Prince George's police officials to serve warrants on wrong
addresses and kill family pets before.

In once such case, Prince George's sheriff's deputies executed a
warrant on the home of Frank and Pamela Myers of Accokeek in November.
The Myers told sheriffs that they had the wrong address as their dog
began barking from the yard. The couple asked if they could retrieve
their dog, but deputies refused. Minutes later, two shots were fired
and the dog was killed, according to a notice of a tort claims filed by
attorney Michael J. Winkelman. The Myers were never charged and nothing
was seized from their house.

Apperently there are some sadistic f*cks wearing a uniform up there. Cause they also thought that a fleeing black Lab was a threat;

Chase was shot while running away from sheriff's deputies, Calvo said.

"He was hunted down and shot in the back while he fled," he said. "They
didn't deserve to die. They don't deserve to be blamed for their
deaths."

There is an "amazing" double standard at work when it comes to incidents like this. You see, there are examples of cops getting fired and/or criminally charged for abusing a police dog. 

http://www.policelin...

http://www.policeone...

Not to mention the fact that it is a crime for a civilian to harm a police dog, it's call principal in the death of a police dog and it's a felony.

So if cops can be fired and cops and civilians can be charged for killing a police dog, why in the hell can't the cops be charged for shooting a family pet. I'm not talking about a pit bull or rottweiler that attacks a cop, but shootin a dog that's barking or trying to get away from them, that deserves criminal charges.

One other thing grabbed my attention in the Sun piece;

He (Berwyn Heights police Chief Patrick A. Murphy)said not knowing about the raid could have led his officers to fire
upon the sheriff's SWAT team because its members were wearing street
clothes, masks and carrying weapons as they approached the mayor's
house.

Wouldn't that make a great headline: Cops Kill Cops at Mayors House in Unnecessary Drug Bust Gone Bad.

Oh, and what if the Mayor had started blastin away at the SWAT team. They were wearing street clothes, masks and proceeded to kick the door down without knocking and without announcing themselves, then blasted the dogs. Is it that far fetched to think that someone, seeing armed men in masks running at their house and then kickin the door down, would shoot first then ask questions. Remember this the age of the "Castle Doctrine".  

The ineptitude and abuse of power in events like this disgusts me.

 

If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love youBut if you really make them think, they'll hate you.

Don Marquis 1878-1937

Unjustified shootings of fleeing family dogs like this one

Shouldn't just be dismissal offenses for thug cops. These shootings should be felonies, with stiff jail time punishments for thug-perps in uniform. And I agree, recent history shows that competence isn't that particular department's strong suit. Corruption, otoh...
JMR

The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.

Sarc and Hillbillly - I saw this story too - it's unbelievable

Nothing will probably happen to these cops either. If they can do this to a Mayor and get away with it, just think what they can do to us.

Hi Dee.....I could tell you volumes.....

about police corruption, having been on the job for 20 years.  I have first hand knowlege of this.  As a matter of fact I have a huge lawsuit pending against a major police dept. for corruption, intimidating witnesses, false police reports....etc.  Thats all I can go into now. When this breaks, I will tell all....and it will shock the hell out of you.   

"If a man does his best, what else is there"?

General George S. Patton Jr.