For general discussion and debate. Possible talking point: All tied up with three months to go!
Obama received a brief increase in support near the conclusion of his overseas trip last week, gaining a nine percentage point advantage in July 24-26 polling. But that bounce disappeared almost [as] quickly as it emerged.
What's responsible for Obama's quick plummet since returning from his premature victory lap?














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This is exactly why polls are important
August 3, 2008 - 10:48 ET by shawn228It is important to see how people are feeling at the moment. I still believe Obama is going to win he general election, because historicaly speaking, if the economy is not doing very well if the current administration, they usually lose the election.
Real life video games are cool
History
August 3, 2008 - 11:04 ET by Gat New YorkIf you are basing anything on history, then Obama is clearly on a path to losing:
1. Anti-war candidates do not win elections during times of war.
2. Obama is by far the most inexperienced and unqualified candidate ever to run for President from either party.
3. Obama has perfomed much lower than any past Democrats in July.
4. His arrogance and lack of humility are now a complete turn off to maintstream Americans.
As far as the economy the single most important act a President can do now is find ways to bring down energy prices. McCain and the GOP have the answer and Obama and NancyJumbo Jet Palotis are denying Americans that solution.
I like the Nancy Jumbo Jet
August 3, 2008 - 14:50 ET by USA4freedomI like the Nancy Jumbo Jet line.
Look, she is trying to save the world, she said so!
Now get out of her way as she is going back home on a C40 http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ac/c-40.htm
Ronald Reagan, 1962: I did not leave the Democratic party, the party left me.
Insert: your name, 2008, and the Republican party.
Romney / Jendal 2012 (if,we survive)
Should we just cancel the election then?
August 3, 2008 - 20:31 ET by UnsaneI agree, Shawn. This poll says it all. Let's cancel the election and declare Obama PFL!
Or...should we just go ahead and hold the election, just to make sure it is accurate?
This is why polls aren't important: DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN
Also, another reason: in January 2006, when Happyland last held a federal election, Paul Martin was supposed to head another minority Liberal government, according to the polls. Yet, for some strange reason, Stephen Harper is Happyland's PM.
Whoever casts a vote for Barack Obama is nothing more than a common thief. Whoever fails to vote against him is nothing more than a moral coward.
Actually Unsane
August 3, 2008 - 22:31 ET by shawn228The liberals were in the lead, until a scandal broke out. The polls all showed the conservatives with a lead in polls afterwards.
Real life video games are cool
Happyland's election
August 5, 2008 - 07:20 ET by UnsaneThat's not what I remember. When I hit the Happyland Broadcasting Corporation website that night while in Asia, my jaw hit the ground when I saw the Liberals give it away, mainly because the conventional wisdom in Happyland did not see the Conservatives even getting a minority government.
It wasn't really the Sponsorship Scandal so much that did them in; as much as it was the Liberals' perceived sense of entitlement to government; Paul Martin's lackluster performance as PM, and stupid comments from various Liberals ("beer and popcorn" was my fave) that I think showed them as out of touch.
But, point still being, that polls are essential;y worthless...
Whoever casts a vote for Barack Obama is nothing more than a common thief. Whoever fails to vote against him is nothing more than a moral coward.
Huge Gap
August 3, 2008 - 10:54 ET by JoelCTIf that is "Registered Voters" and the trend continues through November, we will see a huge 1984-style blowout for McCain on election day.
I believe the people are now finally realizing that this is just another tax-and-spend Democrat who will spend this country into financial ruin, and who will run scared from any group who attacks this country.
I believe the Democrats have picked another Mondale, and the DNC leadership know they have, too.
too bad
August 3, 2008 - 16:33 ET by tony23It's too bad the Republicans haven't produced another Reagan to go against that Mondale.
There's an interesting disconnect...
August 3, 2008 - 10:56 ET by sarcasmoBetween the "lose some money if you're wrong" polls I happen to like and these media polls. One would think they'd be closer, or at least affect eachother. I wish I had a long term graph of the various bookies' odds, but it's been about this ratio for a while, IIRC. Anyway, McCain's paying quite a bit better than Obama, so this might represent an opportunity for overseas readers like Jack, assuming Gallup is correct and the bookies are wrong.
JMR
The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.
Asked and Answered
August 3, 2008 - 10:58 ET by Texndoc"What's responsible for Obama's quick plummet since returning from his premature victory lap?"
I'd say it was taking his premature victory lap.
Texndoc
August 3, 2008 - 10:59 ET by motherbeltGreat Minds!! (see below...even the time is the same!!) LOL
What's responsible for
August 3, 2008 - 10:58 ET by motherbeltWhat's responsible for Obama's quick plummet since returning from his premature victory lap? (emphasis added)
I would say you've answered your own question.
LOL, mb
August 3, 2008 - 11:01 ET by BlondeSee below.
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
Fox News Sunday
August 3, 2008 - 11:02 ET by TexndocChris Wallace made a good point that if Obama's media jaunt overseas had ended 5 minutes BEFORE his grand Berlin speech, he'd probably be way up.
Obama's big mouth
August 3, 2008 - 10:59 ET by BlondeThat and the "premature victory lap"....and maybe his "presidential seal", too.
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
OK, folks! We are closing
August 3, 2008 - 11:16 ET by motherbeltOK, folks! We are closing in on a consensus !!! LOL
its about time Reps stand for something...even tho no one heard
August 3, 2008 - 11:02 ET by Paul GIf a tree falls and no ones there to hear it, does it still make a sound? I was thinking about that old question after the speaker of the house Pelosi and the house Dems adjourn AND cuts off C-SPAN to go off on a 5 week vacation, did any one hear?
IMO 1 The MSM's awakening
August 3, 2008 - 11:19 ET by Eileen RightIMO
1 The MSM's awakening that zerObama is arrogant and acts like he's the president in waiting and actually reporting it.
2. His lurching about on multiple issues is exposing him as a typical politician and turning off many who viewed him as a "new and different" candidate.
3. J Mac's ads are drawing MSM scorn while forcing examination of the points and giving J Mac more coverage.
Ann Coulter Censored!
August 3, 2008 - 11:20 ET by dmntd1My local paper refused to run Ann Coulter's column today. Here's why.
Any other papers refuse to run this column?
Fascism is a religious conception in which man is seen in his imminent relationship with a superior law and with an objective will that transcends the particular individual - Mussolini
Love Ann!
August 3, 2008 - 11:28 ET by TexndocI have a feeling her fans from the paper will just run to her website to read it.
"Even more suspicious, while Edwards was barricaded in the bathroom, no one reported hearing sounds of a blow dryer. "
I'm almost positive that's the line the editor objected to most.
This is disturbing and funny at the same time
August 3, 2008 - 11:31 ET by BlondeSo obviously Ann wrote about Silky Pony Boy's latest, um, escapade?
While not calling him gay? (Remember the brouhaha at the press club thing?)
And your local paper not carrying this article, is addressed in the very first line of Ann's article, here:
A BABY DADDY FOR BOTH AMERICAS
Ann is really going to make hay out of anyone refusing to carry this.
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
my word B
August 3, 2008 - 11:39 ET by botgthat was funny
"You can not support the Troops if you do not support their Mission"
back on earth......
August 3, 2008 - 11:42 ET by botgespecially this segment:
When the National Enquirer story first broke last year, the Edwards campaign denied that Edwards was the father, pawning the affair off on an apparently very loyal Edwards campaign official, Andrew Young. Like Edwards, Young was married with children, but also like Edwards, Young is a Democrat, so it was possible.
Except that, not only has Young's wife not left him, but she was perfectly copacetic with her husband's mistress moving into their gated community for the duration of her pregnancy, and even joining her, Andrew and the kids for dinner.
Back on Earth, that doesn't happen.
"You can not support the Troops if you do not support their Mission"
Ann's humor
August 3, 2008 - 11:48 ET by BlondeIs always biting and spot-on.
Do you think Elizabeth Edwards' little ambush last year had anything to do with Anne & the baby daddy for two Americas?
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
me too blonde
August 3, 2008 - 12:31 ET by candanceI can't help but think Ann especially enjoys dumping on Edwards because of that incident with Tingles. After all the crap she's taken from them (and the way they've lied about her all over YouTube) she prolly has a hard time mustering any sympathy.
Ah yes, candance
August 3, 2008 - 12:56 ET by BlondeRevenge truly is a dish best served cold.
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
Ann's revenge
August 3, 2008 - 13:06 ET by candanceEdwards is back to being an ambulance chaser in North Carolina while Ann has people anxiously waiting to read her weekly article.
We can add them to the long list of has-beens who took on Ann in the media and lost.
Don't mess with Ann Coulter!
A BABY DADDY FOR BOTH AMERICAS
August 3, 2008 - 11:35 ET by Eileen RightIs this the column?
http://www.anncoulte...
Obama's slump
August 3, 2008 - 11:43 ET by SGriffisThe reason for Obama's slump after his whirlwind celebrity tour is because the MSM finally remembered that the Germans and French can't vote in our elections.
Obamas Problem
August 3, 2008 - 11:56 ET by kilrodObamas Problem
Obamas first mistake was insulting the average persons intelligence by asking for a job he is not qualified for and does not have the experience for. Then he has tried to blow smoke and con people with his change and hope bullcrap without offering any substance whatsoever because he has none to offer. The liberal, socialist, biased, prejudiced, dicriminatory, bigoted, msm have made the same mistake, and continue to insult the average persons intelligence by promoting obamas celebracy, covering his mistakes, and spinning and slanting the coverage in obamas favor and against McCain, thus resulting in trying to force obama and the dims down peoples throats. The msm knows obama has no experience for the job, no record of substantive accomplishment, yet they cover it up and refuse to point out the truth. Average people, other than the hard socialist left and the starstruck(dumbstruck), were willing to give obama and the msm a chance, the "benefit of the doubt", but they now have had a bellyfull of obamas bs. and the fawning msm and the msm's attempt to force an unqualified canidate down peoples throat. The foreign trip "victory lap" and all the msm buzz that went with it was pretty much the straw that caused the camel to fart backwards on the people trying fill an empty headed canidates head with something more substantial than camel dung. The funniest thing is the polls are reflecting this, but the msm aint figured it out yet, i guess they're to busy shoveling camel dung.!!!!
(GRINS) kilrod
Remember, only two defining forces have ever offered to die for you, Jesus Christ and the American Soldier
I think it's because
August 3, 2008 - 11:57 ET by GregEI think it's because immediately during and a day or two after his trip, the reality of what the trip was hadn't set in yet. Then people began to analyze what the trip was about and his methods, actions, etc during the trip. That moved some independents.
But, that said, polls at this juncture are just polls. Two weeks before the actual election is when they'll begin to matter.
since this is an open thread...
August 3, 2008 - 12:05 ET by i was just thinkingI was just watching George Steponallofus' round table with George Will and the rest... they were discussing what I though was an interesting notion - the polls may not be reflecting what will really happen. This was largely in reference to the "youth vote" and Obama's appeal to young people.
I'm a teacher, and I know that many of my students think Obama hung the moon. When I ask why he is so great, it is clear that they are not looking seriously at issues, but rather at the "star attraction" - the very thing McCain's ad pointed out. They simply repeat the vague, vacuous things that they here from their new messiah. I truly fear that the young vote in this election is going to vote for the better celebrity, not the better presidential candidate.
Obama's campaign has been slick, well-packaged, and well-marketed. When I see Obama t-shirts being sold on amazon.com, I feel reasonably sure the youth vote is lost to him - and possibly the White House. Sadly, I think McCain has already lost. I hope to heaven I am wrong. I don't recall ever having been so afraid of a candidate - Obama is a charlatan who I truly believe will be a disaster for this country.
I'm not THAT old....
August 3, 2008 - 12:11 ET by Texndoc...but I am old enough to vaguely remember the "youth" seemed to be a hell-of-a-lot more motivated in the past and we never did get "President McGovern" did we? Remember they hated Nixon with a white-hot intensity. Squeaky wheels get the grease (and MTV coverage), but the silent majority is quietly at home NOT shopping for t-shirts on amazon.com for either candidate. They'll just be boring and show up at the polls bright and early on election day as they do time after time.
Believe me, my fellow Texan
August 3, 2008 - 12:15 ET by i was just thinkingBelieve me, my fellow Texan (if I'm reading your moniker correctly), I truly hope that I am wrong. But let's face it - McGovern did not have the "star power" that Obama has created. McGovern was, if I recall correctly, a weak candidate. Obama is, ultimately, a weak candidate, but packaged to appeal to the uneducated masses.
"Star power" that Obama has created.
August 3, 2008 - 12:21 ET by TexndocYep, I'm from Texas and think the above Gallup graph nicely illustrates that "star power" ultimately has a shelf life and will go stale whether you're Tom Cruise, Britney Spears, or the Messiah.
star power
August 3, 2008 - 12:25 ET by botgexcept in this case there are 'students' from the 60s who still have flashbacks from the kool-aid, about 15-12 percent of the 50-70 year olds
oh and go }:- (BEVO)
"You can not support the Troops if you do not support their Mission"
justthinking....the silver
August 3, 2008 - 12:22 ET by motherbeltjustthinking....the silver lining in that cloud is that, although the "youth vote" gets all riled up during the campaign, there are a surprising number of them who just can't get themselves motivated to actually get their butts to the polls, come November.
motherbelt, i truly hope you
August 3, 2008 - 12:30 ET by i was just thinkingmotherbelt, i truly hope you and the others are right. i just can't help thinking that we haven't had a candidate like Obama and his type of slick marketing campaign before. as the cliché goes, time will tell.
i just know what i see in my students and it does scare me.
A Combination of Things
August 3, 2008 - 12:15 ET by rammingspeedThere are a combination of things as to why Obama has slipped. First, the polling had to catch up to his trip, and when it did, it showed that most Americans were negatively impressed. Second, McCain's celebrity and Moses ads are kicking butt, no matter how much the MSM tries to criticize and downplay them.
You can tell the pain and bleeding is bad by the way the MSM and Obama are reacting.
You can also tell the ads are working for McCain by the way he is embracing them. The Republicans have internal polling and other ways of knowing how this stuff is playing out, and they'd run for the hills if it were hurting them.
I agree,
August 3, 2008 - 12:24 ET by motherbeltI agree, rammingspeed.
The dirty little secret of politics is that, despite everyone's decrying them, negative ads work.
If they didn't, politicians wouldn't waste their money on them.
Why I am scared of voting for Obama
August 3, 2008 - 12:29 ET by shawn228I realize that the GOP has nominated a so called "maverick" in this election, but most the the time. Republians vote Republican and Democrats vote Democrat.
Both parties need independent votes from me to win. Personally for me, there are two things that bother me most about politicians the first is hypocrisy and the second is not admitting when you wrong.
The fact that this man cannot admit that the surge has worked is bothering me big time. The surge has made world of difference in the war in Iraq, and Obama refuses to admit he was wrong about saying it would not work. If he displays this type of arrogance now, it makes me weary of what he will be like as our POTUS.
Real life video games are cool
But in November you will
August 4, 2008 - 02:44 ET by Dan The Man 2But in November you will still vote Dem.
Nuke em til they glow then shoot em in the dark.
Why he's not ahead...
August 3, 2008 - 13:11 ET by Dagny TaggartWhen 'The One' opens his mouth, the roar from the wind tunnel between his ears becomes apparent. I think people may be starting to notice.
"The One"
August 3, 2008 - 13:27 ET by kilrodWhen 'The One' opens his mouth, the roar from the wind tunnel between his ears becomes apparent. I think people may be starting to notice.
LOL,ROFLMAO.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(GRINS) kilrod
Remember, only two defining forces have ever offered to die for you, Jesus Christ and the American Soldier
Just a Prediction
August 3, 2008 - 14:10 ET by BarkerJohn McCain will easily win the election, getting 62% of the vote.
Please, no wagering.
11 December 1918 - 2 August 2008
August 3, 2008 - 20:35 ET by UnsaneAlexander Solzhenitsyn (I'm too pressed to transliterate back into Cyrillic just yet) died this weekend at age 89. I have read One Day In The Life of Ivan Denisovich. Good book. I am a total reading slacker...
Whoever casts a vote for Barack Obama is nothing more than a common thief. Whoever fails to vote against him is nothing more than a moral coward.
Skip Caray has died.
August 3, 2008 - 22:15 ET by R D HelmThey have just announced here in Atlanta that Skip Caray, son of Harry Caray, and Braves announcer for 33 years, died in his sleep this morning.
How sad. Skip was one of a kind and will be truly missed by all of us Brave's fans.
The truth is insensitive. - Neal Boortz
McCain VP option Pawlentry is a Global Warming Alarmist!
August 4, 2008 - 07:04 ET by PopularTechTim Pawlenty (Newsweek)
"He speaks out against global warming. He rails against oil and pharmaceutical companies."
Archive for Pawlentry on Global Warming
Oh yes this election can get much worse!
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
If he picks that nut I'm
August 4, 2008 - 07:43 ET by FoolicanIf he picks that nut I'm moving to Estonia, where the corporate taxes are few and the opportunities many.
McCain is an idiot to pick Alarmist Pawlenty as VP
August 4, 2008 - 08:29 ET by PopularTech"It looks like we should have listened to President Carter" - Tim Pawlenty
"Climate change is real. Human behavior is ... responsible. Those who don't think so are simply not right. We should not spend time on voices that say it's not real." - Tim Pawlenty
How Not to Run for Vice President (The Washington Post)
Pawlenty's Record (The Wall Street Journal)
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
Stop depressing
August 4, 2008 - 09:06 ET by Jack BauerStop depressing me!
McCain's #1 priority in a VP pick. Will it be guaranteed to really piss off conservatives?
That's my assumption. Maybe I'm wrong.
Don't worry Jack
August 4, 2008 - 09:23 ET by AgnosticHe still has an opportunity to pick Hillary
Joking - I hope!
I hadn't really thought
August 4, 2008 - 09:26 ET by motherbeltI hadn't really thought about this guy until I read this.
I think McCain could go far and do worse.
I hope he is considering him.