BMI’s Gainor Talks Depression Coverage on Fox Biz

By Nathan Burchfiel | February 29, 2008 - 10:23 ET

BMI Vice President Dan Gainor took to the Fox Business Network Thursday to explain the difference between "depression," "recession" and "slow growth," terms the mainstream media has blurred.

Economists "don't even agree that we're in a recession yet," Gainor said. "But then if you watch the network news shows, we're already up to eight times this year - that's once a week where they've made a comparison to the Great Depression."

Gainor was referring to new research from the Business & Media Institute showing the media's tendency to compare current economic conditions to the Great Depression. Network news shows have made the comparison eight times in 2008, and made the comparison 18 times in 2007.

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"[P]art of the problem is [they don't] put it in context," Gainor said of the media's coverage of potentially negative economic news. "And when you don't put it in context you forget - yes, housing is down, nobody is saying that it's not gloomy right now, but then put it context and say we had several record years before this."

Reporters tended to toss out comparisons between current and Depression-era home sales, home prices or income inequality without providing any sort of context. Nor did they mention that other aspects of the financial environment are less conducive to Depression than in the late 1920s, or that current unemployment - below 5 percent - is nowhere near Depression-ear unemployment, which peaked near 24 percent.

The incessant focus on "recession" and now "depression" poses the threat of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy - and that's according to journalists, Gainor explained. "I got an e-mail today from the Poynter Institute, one of the foremost journalistic authorities in the country," he said. "They're warning also about how the media may be over-hyping recession so much that they're making this basically a fait accompli."

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MSM: "The recession

MSM: "The recession articles have not been working very well. For the last seven years we have puched the recession mind set. The new tactic will be depression. That should wake the people up."

 

"Forget change, I want improvement!"

i know you all want it to be true...

Since when did the media become more powerful in the economy than lets say...credit spreads, exchange rates, housing markets, or perhaps FED policy? (just to name a few)

I've never seen one creditable report that the media exerts control over the economy, but now somehow they're creating this recession? Come on, you bash the media all you want, but they don't create recessions.

the media does contribute

JohnG,

In fact, the Conference Board -- the organization that produces Consumer Confidence Index reports – acknowledges that media negativity contributes to consumer confidence.

“Obviously it can have an impact,” Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center told me while I was writing a recent report on media coverage of the CCI. “You know for instance we’ve had a lot of sort of recent news on recession, no recession … a lot on sort of the spill over from the housing market and the credit crunch … and so that has, those types of events and factors really tend to impact consumers’ expectations.”

It’s probably fair to say that most Americans don’t investigate and analyze credit spreads, exchange rates, housing markets, Fed policy or other aspects of the economy. Most people rely on the news media to present an accurate picture of what’s going on in the economy. And the media routinely fails to provide an accurate or balanced picture.

No one is saying the media have singular control over the economy. But they do have an undeniable effect on public perception of the economy, and public perception of the economy can lead to economic shifts – when people are scared about the economy, they will react in ways that change the economic environment.

Media influence

The media saved Bill Clinton, helped Hillary become the senator from New York, demonized the republican party, have people panicked over global warming, and took terrorism off the discussion table for the dems for the '08 elections.

I'd say they have an influence on creating an illusion of anything they wanted.

Mica..magnificently enough

Not only did the media shape the gloriously warm vison of the Clinton -- let's just do economy here, OK -- they used it, and continue to use this power, to try to get Gore, then Kerry and now either of the D's candidates elected. Conversely, they play the opposite up, to hurt Bush. It's simply about R's vs D's. Here's but two examples of how they lie to the voters -- Mathews, I suggest is representative of the entire MSM take: 

Back in Aug of 2000, when the DOW was off it's high by 1,100 points, the Nasdaq was down 58% from it's highs, unemployment claims were soaring, CA was in the midst of the Enron blamed energy crisis, the manufacturing index had been in a steep plummet and was nearing the low point in the cycle (continued down until April 2001); here's ABC's Charlie Gibson pushing the campaign of Al Gore because the [collapsing]economy is so strong:

"The Dow has tripled, we've gone from deficit to surplus,' and that this will give Al Gore a chance to talk about the economy, a new chance to talk about the economy." Aug 3rd, 2000.

What? The economy was dying in the moment - eveyone knew that.

This next bit is interesting. Chris Matthews .."excellent economic numbers right through 2000 ?? What is he referring to, and Gore actually weakly attempted to corrected him...  and stated the facts on when things tanked, about the first time this fact was ever heard in the national media. And then, nothing Gore stated made sense. 

Dec. 11th, 2002 Hardball excerpt-

MATTHEWS: Just as an observer again, I thought your campaign last time, it should have been very positive. It should almost be a bragging tour of America because we had excellent economic numbers and right through 2000, everybody was in the market and making money. The middle class was saving. The work working people were having jobs. Hispanics, highest unemployment, lowest unemployment, lowest black unemployment, lowest women’s unemployment, all the good numbers and yet your campaign had sort of a complaining character to it..

GORE: It’s an interesting analysis. You know, the markets started down, the economy started down in March of 2000, [oh really??] and in spite of all the good news [there was no good news in late 2000], still I felt we could do better, and I think most Americans like to look to the future with optimism and hope and they want all campaigns to be about how we can get a better future, and so I don’t know. I’m interested in what you say, but I think to focus on how to make for a better future is probably smarter and better in the best interest of the American people rather than simply patting ourselves on the back for what’s come before.

bla ..bla..bla. Wow, warmly welcomed positive talk in the midst of an economic crash, which the MSM ignored then, and has redefined as something that Bush created [magically before he became president] - think the media has an interest in President Bush's positive outlook and confidence in the economy?

Excellent, Gary H.

Don't forget the MSM agreeing with candidate Bill Clinton back in '92 that it was the worst economy since the great depression.

Wow, that sure sounds like history is repeating itself.

 

Again and again, Mica

The MSM has it covered both ways on all sides of any situation. When (help) Obama becomes president, with the D's in full charge of the congress -- the entire MSM media will be out attacking any opposition, any view and all facts which do not support Pelosi's agenda.

a drop of water in the ocean

consumer confidence is made up of a lot of things. and sure the media could have some influence on people view of the economy. (why do you say negative...it can go both ways). but people's view of the economy is not directly derived from the media. i would content labor markets, wages, current interest and savings rates all play a lot larger role of CC.

this the scenario: so the media has some small effect on consumer's view of the economy. and this view along with many other factors contributes to consumer confidence. and consumer confidence is one of many indicators used to judge the health of the economy. even if your statement of media influence is true, how much does the media really affect the economy in the end? it's probably close to a drop of water in the ocean.

why is the media reporting on the economy negatively so bad? last i checked, there are quite a few indicators that say the economy isn't so strong. the media reports in hyperbole in almost all stories, so of course they're going to make grandiose statements about the economy before commercials, they want to you to keep watching! i just doubt those statements have any real, visible, or quantifiable influence.

the source of information

Yes, consumer confidence is based on labor markets, wages, interest rates, savings rates, the stock market, the housing market, etc. But where do most people get their information about those various factors? The media! When the media constantly harp on the things that aren't so hot, viewers and readers start to get the idea that everything's bad.

A major problem is a lack of context. For example, the media have recently reported "the sharpest decline in home sales since the Great Depression." The obvious implication is that because the numbers look similar we must be headed for another depression. But they fail to inform viewers that we've recently experienced several record high years for sales. A "sharp" drop from a record high isn't quite as bad as a "sharp" drop from a record low, is it?

As another example, the media tend to report when the CCI shows a drop in consumer confidence. But when it goes up -- or, as in July 2007 when it was at a six-year high -- they apparently see no need to mention it. 

(Both examples come from analysis by the Business & Media Institute. There are many more examples available at our Web site.)

How average Americans participate in the economy is shaped by their feelings about the economy. Those feelings are shaped by what they know about the various parts of the economy you've mentioned, and many more. And most people get information on those parts of the economy from media that tend to focus only on negative news and fail to provide appropriate context.

Yes, there are indicators suggesting the economy "isn't so strong." But there are also indicators suggesting that it's not nearly as bad as some people seem to think. And that's exactly the problem -- the media isn't telling people about the good indicators because it's too busy focusing on hyperbolizing the bad.

Nathan,Wouldn't the

Nathan, Wouldn't the "virtual reality" (of a bad economy getting worse) created by the media helps explain why many people polled say that the nation is in "dire economic staits", but their personal economic situation is "good"?

don't use vague, generalized examples

you seems to make the connection that people watch the news and that's were they get information to make all their spending/saving decisions. that's maybe how they may get an impression, but i would contend from an economists point of view how big a raise you got this year, how much credit card debit you have, whats the rate on your mortgage, do you expect expenses to increase/decrease, does your currency have the same purchasing power, etc, etc etc to be much more REAL to the consumer than the nightly news.

but you keep saying that the media is were people find out about the economy, which just isn't the main source. the main source is their paycheck and bank accounts. the news outlets have no PROVEN link to consumer spending/CCI, you're just inferring that there is a connection, but you can't support that with real proof.

EVEN if there was a strong connection, the downturn isn't due to the consumer confidence and consumer spending drying up, in fact they're keeping the economy afloat! so the media influence(if there is any significant amount) would be one of last reasons for this potential recession(let's hope just slight downturn).

you can give me as many examples of how you think the media unfairly reports the economy. i don't see it, then again i don't watch joke business reporting on fox, cnn, cnbc, etc. read the wsj, read the economists, read/watch bloomberg...those are media outlets who actually know what they're talking about.

During this recession/depression reporting, do you

ever notice how there's no mention of the Clinton/Gore Recession of 2000 and the Jimmy Carter years in the late 70's?  You will however occasionally hear about the recession Bush 41 left for Clinton though.

Curious how this works.

The MSM is desperate to push

The MSM is desperate to push the idea of bad economic times, all in an effort to destroy Bush's legacy. Does anyone thing for a second that if a Democrat were in the White House that they'd tell us that we're doing great??? It's all about perceptions for the majority of Americans (who appearantly) can't think for themselves.