In a "Notebook" entry at her blog on the CBS News Web site Wednesday, "Evening News" anchor Katie Couric boasted of the media's ability to predict a recession.
In spite of the fact that no one knows for sure if the U.S. economy is in a recession, Couric seemed sure the nation is facing economic hard times, and she's proud to say the media called it.
"The economy's going through one of its roughest patches in years," Couric said. "Stocks are plummeting, the Fed is slashing interest rates and the president is looking for ways to fight off a recession. But are we already in a recession?"
The short answer: yes, according to Couric. But according to experts, the answer is no.
Couric cited the "R-word index," a running count of how many times the media mention recession, as evidence of its inevitability. It has spiked lately, although it remains well below levels seen ahead of previous recessions.
When I was a kid, my parents watched the Jeopardy quiz show every night. A participatory youth, I would guess at every turn. My answer was always, "What is robot?" One time I was right.
The media have been saying "recession" for a long time. In fact throughout 2006, the media kept suggesting recession was on the horizon, but 2007 didn't see one. In a cyclical economy recession is a given every now and then, and media predictions will occasionally be right. But that doesn't make those media claims reliable barometers of state of the economy.
Couric also failed to mention the media's role in creating a recession. How does she expect the American public to react when all the media talks about is recession? Practically every night, viewers are bombarded with negative coverage of the economy. Does she expect that will encourage people to spend money?
No, the media's constant doom-and-gloom reporting scares people. If consumers fear an oncoming recession, they'll want to save their money - Couric even suggests in her notebook video that viewers "build a cash cushion and prepare to sit tight."
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This quote from Katie must be wrong
January 23, 2008 - 14:55 ET by OldSailor88I'm pretty sure it should say, "Praying for a recession." Not "predicting." Big difference.
Stultus est sicut stultus facit
After the media have been
January 23, 2008 - 15:21 ET by kgAfter the media have been predicting a recession for 7 years it's about time something should happen. Journalists have always been able to predict the future. It's like predicting the plague, you know it's coming but you don't know when.
Now they can start predicting the next bull market.
"Now they can start
January 23, 2008 - 16:29 ET by TheTruth"Now they can start predicting the next bull market."
Only if a Democrat is in the Whitehouse.
MSM: Arrogant intellectually dishonest LIBERALS teaching those stupid peasants how to vote by way of selective reporting, misinformation, propaganda, and out right lies.
I think it was...
January 23, 2008 - 15:45 ET by ArcherBI think it was TRYING for recession. Recession is one of those things that can be caused simply by predicting it. The left accused GWB of causing the 2000 recession by saying how bad the economy was. Fact is, it was in decline before Bush even announced that he was running.
Today, we have 100% of the non-business news networks are predicting a recession, people start to believe it, stop spending money and BAM!!! Recession. It's a "self fulfilling prophesy".
I believe that the press is aware of this and they are trying to give the impression that the economy is bad so that they can both elect a Democrat this year as well and strip GWB of his good economic legacy at the same time. Actually, it doesn't really matter if they are aware or not. To them, all that matters is the public's impression of the economy. Sadly, in an election year, they are correct.
If you hamper the war effort of one side, you automatically help out that of the other. --George Orwell
Please, Katie, at least
January 23, 2008 - 14:59 ET by motherbeltPlease, Katie, at least spare us descriptions of your personal sacrifice and how tough you're having it. (She was the one on her AM show who quipped about rising gas prices that she'd had to take out a loan to fill up her minivan.)
No one is any more likely to believe that your feeding your kids PBJ more often.
I'm sure she's crying with
January 23, 2008 - 15:02 ET by taterI'm sure she's crying with that 15 mil contract, she may have to give up an ivory backscratcher.
...and besides hasn't the media been predicting a recession for a good 2 years now. They could keep doing it and eventually be right.
Do you realize how much it costs to run for office? More than any honest man could afford. -Montgomery Burns
Yup tater,
January 23, 2008 - 15:10 ET by upcountrywaterA broken clock is right twice -a-day.
A good day for me I didn't hear the perkless one on my cBS radio station today :-)
iranian uranium; iranian uranium, iranian uranium..
Oh joy to the world, 19 more atomic power plants!
Depends on your clock.
January 23, 2008 - 16:19 ET by Dan The Man 2Depends on your clock. And if you consider there are 24 hours in a day and 60 min in an hour and 60 sec in a minute that narrows the idea of being right considerably. So on a traditional 24 hour clock, you are right 2 times per sidereal day but only 2 times in 86400 seconds during the day. So it is a piss poor record.
Nuke em til they glow then shoot em in the dark.
Katie
January 24, 2008 - 02:38 ET by whatis isIt's late, I'm tired, can't sleep. Is it OK to refer to Perky Katie Couric as the new "See-BS NASCAR Reporterette"? {hint, hint, see the parody 'toon at top} I'm starting to understand why my co-comrades hate me...
Tell a lie often enough....
January 23, 2008 - 15:38 ET by Kuso JijiThe MSM takes another page right out of Goebbels handbook.
Clinton was elected in 92 mainly because the media lied about the state of the economy. During the 92 campaign, they failed to report the nation was out of the recession. Clinton rose to power using the "Its the economy, stupid" mantra in unison with the MSM disinformation.
Its happening again except this time the media is working overtime to convince the populace of rough times ahead so that a compassionate democrat can come in and save the poor from further misery.
The problem is the more they lie, the more it effects peoples financial decisions. The more people who buy into the rhetoric, the greater the chance those financial decisions negatively impact the economy.
I sure hope the media never gets fixated on a toilet paper shortage. That would get ugly.
doom and gloom
January 23, 2008 - 15:39 ET by johnG"No, the media's constant doom-and-gloom reporting scares people."
The media didn't create this bear market and possible recession. Sorry those looking to blame Couric, but it has to do with subprime woes, tightening credit, and monetary policy not the nightly news.
BS
January 23, 2008 - 16:03 ET by ArcherBCan you tell me mortgage loan defaults in the US affects the price of tea in China? (Literally, the price of tea in China) World markets collapsed because of recession fears, not recession facts.
Every single night, all I hear on the news is how we are either headed for, or are in the middle of a recession. This is just plain wrong. The greatests economic minds in the US are saying that we are NOT in a recession, by definition, and won't be next quarter either. A recession is two consecutive quarters of a shrinking economy. Since the economy did not shrink last quarter, a recession is literally impossible next quarter, even if this quarter is a disaster! All indicators predict that we will have growth this quarter as well, just as we have for every single quarter since 2003.
However, some economists predict that the economic rate of growth will slow next year, it will still grow. Most economists say that is a good thing as an economy that grows too fast has other problems.
So what caused this bear market? The constant beating of the recession drum, every single day and night, combined with the slightest bit of bad economic news (mortgage "crisis"), and panic selling happens. It's called a correction, not a recession.
Also, that "Bear Market" you refer to is pretty much over. For today, the Dow is up.
I don't know where you took economics 101, but most community colleges still teach that economic slumps must last longer than 24 hrs to be considered a "recession" or "bear market".
If you hamper the war effort of one side, you automatically help out that of the other. --George Orwell
ha community college
January 23, 2008 - 16:13 ET by johnGactually i took economics at an columbia university...nice try though genius.
and yes today did end with a rally, but the S&P is down (including today's rally) 8.83% YTD and i would contend that there is more to come. also i dont know where you went to school, but your reading comprehension is weak...i didn't say we're in a recession, i said possible recession.
and honestly if media has so much control why hasn't consumption slowed up more? there are different fundamentals that consumers don't control causing fears(you did get something right!) about the health of the economy.
wall street isn't watching couric for its cues...they're looking at credit spreads, interest rates, housing levels, etc.
My brother went there and
January 23, 2008 - 16:21 ET by Dan The Man 2My brother went there and said the proffs were idiots. But it is evident you snoozed during economics.
Nuke em til they glow then shoot em in the dark.
oh snap...you got me!
January 23, 2008 - 16:28 ET by johnGyour brother is definitely the end all be all for economic education assessment. thanks for that gem of information!
what's more evident is that you want to blame the liberal media for the economy, and how you definitely don't have ANY economic/financial markets background.
I guess you can read minds,
January 23, 2008 - 17:16 ET by Dan The Man 2I guess you can read minds, but brother you aint reading mine. I do place part of the blame on the MSM because for years they have been saying there is an economic recession just around the corner, thereby placing in the minds of the public the economy is doing badly and we are in for a 1929 style drop. Yes according to most economic wisdom we will be in a drop in the economy in almost all sectors. This is eco 101.
But when you trumpet doom and gloom 24/7 for years people will statrt to assume the worst. I dont think we should give money to the people to hopefully stimulate the economy. We should allow it to correct itself and the markets will heal themselves. We needed it in 2001 becasue there was a huge bubble created by non existant high tech and nets. Complicating nmatters was the fact many locals were relying on the high tech to stimulate the economy. When teh market went bust and the dot coms went ther was a cascade of dominoes.
This market and economy is a bit different and will not suffer to rthe extent we did in 2000. We should also let the housingh market kill off the weak and let the fit survive. In my estimation the econmy will be better for it in the long run. But who cares let teh good times roll and if it doesnt let the heads roll, because it isnt my fault I overextended myself.
My brother teaches now at the University of Tokyo and has a successfull business also. So he may have a few good ideas.
Nuke em til they glow then shoot em in the dark.
so let me get this straight...
January 24, 2008 - 12:06 ET by johnGhey man, congrats to your brother. i just don't get why you would disregard one of the top schools in the country and economic departments in the world because of one person's opinion. but it doesn't really matter what you think of my alma mater.
anyways back on topic, i think its pretty far reaching to place any significant blame on the media for this current market/economic situation. the only thing that the media could affect is consumer confidence(and i don't think there is any proved causality for that), which is merely one of many indicator we use we to assess the economy. and even if your claim that the media displays all this doom and gloom and thus it causes consumer to pull back and slows the economy is true, during this current situation the consumer is the one holding up the economy. consumer confidence is still pretty high, consumption is okay, i would contend that it's other indicators that are slumping and lead economist to mention the possibility of recession.
in summary, what i'm saying is that on my list of people to blame i don't have the media. i would think we should look at all those people who thought their houses would never lose value, or the ones who took loans that they couldn't repay, or the people who incorrectly rated the debt and then repacked it.
as for the solution, i'm with you. i think we should let the market play out(with some rate cuts though). i don't want to bail out people, i think that's the wrong move. and you're right the market in the long run will be fine, i mean come on...we're the United States of America.
Refund
January 23, 2008 - 16:41 ET by ArcherBYou should probably ask for your money back. (I'm kidding, by reading the rest of your post, you seem to have somewhat of a grasp.)
This is that grasp I was speaking of. Wall St. looks to make money, period. They only care what the state of the economy as pertains to their portfolios. While investors look at various economic indicators to decide which direction to invest (or not), Wall St and other exchanges around the world are economic indicators themselves.
So while investors will laugh at the idea of taking investment advice from the likes of Katie Couric, they do pay attention to other primary economic indicators, like consumer confidence, which is directly affect by the media. Nearly of the other indicators are still up, like low unemployment, inflation, interest rates and so on. This latest bear sighting was due to panic in foreign markets, not the US market. Evidently, they read the NYT over seas as well.
The US economy is doing just fine, regardless of what you see on TV.
If you hamper the war effort of one side, you automatically help out that of the other. --George Orwell
"i didn't say we're in a
January 23, 2008 - 19:05 ET by robert108"i didn't say we're in a recession, i said possible recession."
It's also a possible economic boom, so what you said is meaningless, then. As far as consumption slowing up, maybe the American public isn't buying the leftie propaganda from the MSM like they used to. It's about time. December spending was up over last December. I guess that's an inconvenient truth.
meaningless?
January 24, 2008 - 11:45 ET by johnGi don't follow your logic. and sure a boom is possible, but unlikely. the reason i said "possible recession" is that is take awhile to know if we're in one currently. since gpd is a backward looking indicator we don't know if we're in a recession until it's happened(or happening if it's an extended recession). so we could be in a recession right now(i don't think we are), we just don't know...hence "possible recession."
And now my conspiracy
January 23, 2008 - 16:03 ET by dscottAnd now my conspiracy theory of the week:
The MSM decided that Bill Clinton had the right idea, "It's the economy Stupid!" So following the successful 1998 strategy of Clinton and combining it with the recent 2006 Dem meme of "Change", they set out to combine these concepts in order to set the presidential political debate around the Domestic agenda where Dems are historically strong. An economy in recession was the only way to erase the foreign policy issues of the GWOT and specifically Iraq. This was helpful since foreign policy is a Repub strength and a Dem weakness. The MSM and Dems were totally wrong on Iraq so they need to drop the subject, hence no more coverage of Iraq unless a bomb goes off.
As long as the MSM and Dems working in tandem can keep everyone occupied with solving the non existent recession, i.e. how government can solve your problems, it will be a successful strategy to capture the WH. When people have $800 dangled in front of them as a rebate (free money), it is easy to convince them this is for their own good. Since Schumer has already said that the rebate will be means tested or capped by income, that means Dems are in the happy position to buy the WH with your tax dollars at $800 a vote. Since there are more people who will receive the $800 than those who don't, victory is assured. The Repubs accepting the false dichotomy of pork barrel spending versus a rebate and got snookered again. The Repubs conceeded making further tax cuts and the Bush tax cut permenant thus assuring in 2010 everyone gets a tax increase, of course this will be blamed on Bush since he is one responsible for lowering it in 2003.
Please notice that the stock market debacle did not start in the US, it started overseas where it is easier to upset the future's markets and the SEC has no jurisdiction over unethical exploitation or manipulation of the markets. Can anyone say a person such as George Soros and his billions with the financial power to tip the markets? Can you think of anyone else or group that has a vested interest in causing a stock market collapse to influence the outcome of the US POTUS elections??? Iran...
BTW- Since the Dems have barely said a word about immigration after Hillary's waffling on the NY drivers license issue, the MSM has obliged to not ask those inconvenient questions.
We have all been played folks, but don't feel bad, they were professionals who did this, not rank amateurs, so you can have some dignity to pretend about.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. dscott's corollary: The line between malice and stupidity is called depraved indifference.
Why is it now a sinking
January 23, 2008 - 16:48 ET by motherbeltWhy is it now a sinking economy, and when Bush talked about the possibility of a recession in 2000, he was accused of "talking down the economy"?
How convenient for the Democrats....deny recession at the end of a Democrat administration. Then when it happens near the end of a Republican one, cry "It's all his fault!!" and claim that only a Democrat president can "fix" it. And of course, when the cycle turns around, they claim they "fixed" it. HRC says she is going to "manage the economy" and provide "shared prosperity for all." I just want to know whose prosperity she is going to "share." I'll bet you anything it wouldn't be hers and Bill's.
It is CONSTRICTION not recession
January 23, 2008 - 16:07 ET by Lame CherryThe US economy has been RECESSIVE since it went off the gold standard and uses Rockefeller fractal lending to gear inflationary wealth. The US economy is now in CONSTRICTION due to the money Bush printed up to ward off a global DEPRESSION after 9 11.
The world in parts has entered RECESSION. Western Europe is usually on the verge of going coma due to it's socialist policies, Asia is in a massive slump being pulled down by the weak dollar, China is in competition with India for cheap manufacturing and is on the verge of a wholesale meltdown with the Arab oil nations constricted on the US dollar and only Putin left with a surplus to threaten the world with Soviet weaponry.
The economy can be fixed quite easily, but Bush is wrong on his stimulus packages and lowering those interest rates which is driving money out of banks and into garbage bonds, commodities or volatile stocks that definitely can crash due to the movement of inflation/dollar reduction factors as trends move off.
The only reason Wall Street did not collapse is the US treasury plugged another gaping whole with degraded US dollars it was printing in the billions.
All of this is not good as no one is stating that the economic DEBT worldwide for America is now not being funded by bonds buying up debt by foreigners, but by PRINTED DOLLARS.......so the US is increasing money supply to shore up the investment stocks which are under pressure due to the massive printing of dollars before.
For the layman what is happening is like if you buy a car on a credit card, can't make payments and then use another credit card to pay off the first........but now have increased debt loads as the car devalued with age and now the people holding the debt are dumping it........so you now have two piles of debt on interest instead of one and it is growing daily.
Perky can pat herself, but I would swat her on the butt and inform her she is ignorant as she and the MSM and most economists or all apparently have no idea what is going on nor are explaining it nor finding a way to fix it.
*HIC IACET ARTORIVS REX QVONDAM REXQVE FVTVRVS
The Future
January 23, 2008 - 16:22 ET by WR JonasNo one knows what will happen tomorrow . The media, in its usual self delusional mode thinks it can generate bad news in this election year to the benefit of its beloved liberal left. If they would look with a bit more vision at that splotchy blurred spot just ahead they might see it is a yawning abyss.
If the economy recovers nicely and Iraq continues well they may have more difficulty scheming and deceiving their way back to power than they imagined . We know the MSM will toil to prevent that from happening but if the Democrat Party splits as a result of its failure to capture the reins of power , the electronic and print media will rupture as well. As Professor Henry Higgins exclaaimed, "how delightful".
Who cares what this ball of
January 23, 2008 - 16:23 ET by ArchConservativeWho cares what this ball of fluff has to say about anything? She doesn't have any ratings and she's considered a joke by her peers. Don't give her any press and let her career become the car wreck it is destined to be.
You support the troops by supporting the mission! If you don't support the mission, have the guts to say you don't support the troops.
After reading stories and
January 23, 2008 - 16:27 ET by balboaAfter reading stories and hearing opinions from people on both sides, I've come to the conclusion that none of you really knows what's going on with the economy until it happens, and then you backtrack and explain it vis-a-vis your particular political slant.
Shhhh! No revealing of
January 23, 2008 - 16:54 ET by dscottShhhh! No revealing of trade secrets. :-)
I was the one saying
January 23, 2008 - 17:07 ET by sarcasmo"Inflation's coming" right-here more than a year ago. Backtracking hasn't been needed on that one, even though it does happen to fit my particular political slant rather-well...
JMR
Rally online with fans of Dr. Ron Paul. (All purpose anti-slander-link, sadly-needed these days...)
Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead
January 23, 2008 - 19:22 ET by OldSailor88And you're still wrong, Sarc. A year and counting. Not such a good record for your political slant.
Stultus est sicut stultus facit
Huh?? What are you smoking???
January 24, 2008 - 04:02 ET by sarcasmoI have no idea why you are yammering about Franco. Inflation's happening, just like I correctly-predicted it would here more than a year-ago, like it or not! (And I know people don't like when I say "I told you so" like this, but I TOLD YOU SO over a year-ago about inflation's comin'!) Reality is not optional, and inflation somewhere between 6 & 7 percent is now reality. Deal with it.
JMR
PS Predicting this stuff doesn't take especially brilliant insight, because it's simply me noticing history repeating itself. "The budget should be balanced, the treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt." Cicero, circa 63 B.C.
Rally online with fans of Dr. Ron Paul. (All purpose anti-slander-link, sadly-needed these days...)
Sarc
January 24, 2008 - 07:28 ET by OldSailor88The Franco comment is a reference to Chevy Chase on SNL. I'm sure it's on YouTube somewhere. The other point is that we were talking about recession, not inflation. There is no recession. I'm not brilliant either, but I do understand what the definition is, and there is definitely no recession. Inflation? Yes. But there's been inflation since we started the Country. That's not a prediction, that's stating the blatantly obvious.
Stultus est sicut stultus facit
I was talking about predictions.
January 24, 2008 - 07:49 ET by sarcasmoAnd crashes leading to epithets like "not worth a continental" are indeed an easily predictable part of history. Inflation, though, has more-recently followed the chart here (page-down twice) and seems related to central banking, just as Jefferson warned. Sorry for not-getting the SNL reference, but I still-don't, so it's probably-hopeless. I was talking about predictions, not recession, and my prediction was inflation, which is what happened.
JMR
Rally online with fans of Dr. Ron Paul. (All purpose anti-slander-link, sadly-needed these days...)
Great change since 2003 to high 2007-never heard this, did we!
January 24, 2008 - 07:55 ET by PawpawNGreat change since 2003 to high 2007-never heard this, did we! http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/xlspages/DJIA_Hist_Perf.xls All we heard during this time was the info on days when DOW tanked! Seems Dow increased 4939.09 from low in 2003 to high in 2006 by this chart. Add another over 1800 in 2007, that's increase of over 6700 points from 2003. Can someone say correction instead of whipping the R word out whenever we have a slight down ward period! Oh, but that's right, SOROS told them all to say "IT'S THE ECOMONY STUPID!"
Uh Oh..Couric, DJ is up 300 Pts today..bad timing
January 23, 2008 - 16:33 ET by JayTeeThis Broad is still on the Air ? Talking Economic predictions ? As if the Journalist of the moment is an Economic Guru on the side ?
Actually, after being down 300pts, the Dow is up 300 pts, that's about a 600 pt 5% swing, and it wasn't in Couric's direction.
A good Journalists would wait until a Financial Markets Expert Technically defined the Recession as Present, and THEN report the Recession is here. It would be a lot less embarassing for the dumb Broad if she followed the rules of common Sense.
"Barack Obama is a Powerful Speaker—And so is My Bose Bass Amp" Doug Giles
Libs definition of a recession
January 23, 2008 - 17:47 ET by LionKingAnytime the market adjusts, it is a recession.
Dow up almost 300 points
Causing not predicting
January 23, 2008 - 18:10 ET by oregon_jiimNegative news about a company, whether it is true or not, will casue that company's stock to go down. Negative news about the economy, whether it is true or not, will eventually cause a recession.
"an endorsement of communism is an endorsement of slavery"
Katie Couric Loves...
January 23, 2008 - 19:29 ET by SupermanKatie Couric loves to hear bad news. A bombing in Iraq? She's giddy. Economy slowdown? She's jumping for joy.
Third place in a three
January 23, 2008 - 22:45 ET by fitzfongThird place in a three network race? Not so much.
I had to laugh
January 23, 2008 - 20:39 ET by tcm22I never watch the mindless babble of broadcast news, but it was on at the barbershop this evening so I got to hear Katie almost gleefully reporting on the "effects" of the "economic downturn" that "could lead to recession." She went on to say how one million more people are out of work than at this time last year! GASP! SHOCK! DRAMA!
I kept waiting for her to quote the latest unemployment figures, but she segued right into the tearjerker story of a laid-off mortgage company exec who has sent out hundreds or resumes but still can't find a job, as if he was typical of the entire workforce.
A quick check of the labor stats shows an unemployment rate of 5% in December, up .03% in from November and .6% from a year earlier. As 5% is typically viewed as full employment, I guess it didn't add to the handwringing and fearmongering the networks love to offer up with their economic reporting.
Wikipedia: In macroeconom
January 24, 2008 - 00:00 ET by Sonny LykosWikipedia: In macroeconomics, a recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year.
We haven't even had one, much less two or more.
Perfect Record
January 24, 2008 - 15:44 ET by Tom PaineThe mainstream media are economic geniuses. After all, they accurately predicted 12 of the last 3 recessions.
Beautiful!
January 24, 2008 - 15:51 ET by fitzfongBeautiful!