In spite of recent polls of economists by leading financial publications predicting a less than 50-percent chance the U.S. economy will enter a recession in 2008, the media's coverage of "recession" since the beginning of the year makes it seem inevitable.
ABC, CBS and NBC reported "more signs of a looming recession," "deepening troubles," "new fuel for recession fears," "rattled consumers," "an economy on edge" and "bracing for recession," or some scary variation a total of 32 times just in the first two weeks of 2008.
The segments predicted a recession or reported fears of a looming recession four times as often as they reported optimism about the New Year, even though recent surveys of economists put the chance of recession at 40 percent to 42 percent.
"And the major concern heading into 2008 is that big ‘R' word, recession," David Muir ominously reported on January 1. "When does the mortgage mess, the housing market, lead to that?" he asked, assuming that a mortgage "mess" inevitably leads to recession.
ABC reported "growing concerns the economy may be heading toward recession." CBS mentioned that "when companies stop hiring, it's often a sign we're slipping into a recession." NBC noticed that in a speech about the economy, President Bush
A survey of 62 economists conducted by Bloomberg News and released January 9 showed those economists putting the chance of a recession at 40 percent. A similar survey by The Wall Street Journal found comparable results with economists putting the chance of recession at 42 percent.
Did the media focus on these polls? Of course not.
"Right now most economists are saying you've got to worry about growth first and foremost," Erin Burnett reported on the "Today" show January 10.
Maria Bartiromo's "Nightly News" report on January 11 featured interviews with three people predicting a recession. She didn't bother to find anyone to add optimism to the discussion.
The Bloomberg News article reporting the survey's findings cited a few economists the media could have gone to for positive opinions about the economy. "It's soft economic activity that feels like a recession, but we probably won't have one," Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America Corp. told Bloomberg. "The state of the consumer is clearly softening, but spending is not declining. That's very important."
Jay Bryson, a global economist at Wachovia Corp., said, "We're skating on the thin edge of recession, but we'll narrowly miss one" because "the consumer ... has remained relatively resilient."
Only one broadcast reported the Bloomberg poll. Deirdre Bolton, a Bloomberg TV anchor, mentioned the poll on the January 9 CBS "The Early Show." She didn't mention the prediction for growth, but did note the poll's finding that the economists predicted a 40-percent chance of recession.
In one other case, Katie Couric spun the results of the Wall Street Journal poll, which put the likelihood of recession at 42 percent. But Couric didn't emphasize the fact that economist still put the likelihood of recession below 50 percent. Instead, she focused on the fact that the number predicting a recession was up over six months ago, when economists put the change of a recession at 23 percent.
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Comments Policy
Bias
January 16, 2008 - 16:55 ET by Blogger Guy00001When a Republican is in the White House, the media ask people how much they are suffering. People who say that things are going well are ignored.
When a democrat is elected to the White House, the media will be asking
people how they have prospered. People who say that they are doing
badly will be ignored.
The homeless will have disappeared from the streets. A 100 point increase in the Dow Jones will be reported as "soaring". Attacks on innocent civilians in distant lands will be praised. The space program will be lauded again. Foreclosures will have stopped and all homeowners will be happy. Aids will have been stopped and news of a comet heading toward the earth about to destroy all life will be reported as "Earth to be rid of pollution".
"When a Republican is in the
January 16, 2008 - 17:05 ET by Sonny Lykos"When a Republican is in the White House, the media ask people how much they are suffering. People who say that things are going well are ignored.
When a democrat is elected to the White House, the media will be asking
people how they have prospered. People who say that they are doing
badly will be ignored."
Exactly! Happens every time a Republican is in the WH. So what else is new about our "objective", non-biased MSM?
The media is just setting
January 16, 2008 - 23:05 ET by Conservative in the ArtsThe media is just setting the stage for an economic one day recovery as soon as Hillary steps foot on campus.
Gloom, gloom, gloom...boom! she fixed it! screw the first 100 days, she did it within the first 100 minutes!
(as an aside -how much of a failure was the other historic first woman's 100 days? <cricket> <cricket>)
Glenn Beck: Messiah of Doom
January 16, 2008 - 17:48 ET by Chris NormanI slipped this under an older post. I'll try it again. Has anyone else noticed this on his TV and radio shows?
As bad as Newsweek and the rest of the dyno-media is, Glenn Beck has been pushing the idea of complete and total economic collapse - world banking and everything. After listening to him, I'm ready to off myself. He's really going over the top with his predictions of world wide economic calamity.
His guests are economists and analysts who, one gets the idea, have been pushing this notion for awhile. It's the kind of thing you usually hear on the radio at 3:00 AM, broadcast from a trailer in the desert. He's really not doing himself any favors going this far.
Chris, I noticed that on his
January 16, 2008 - 17:51 ET by forestChris, I noticed that on his TV show last night. I was disappointed. He ought to leave that kind of pre-emptive doom to the regular media folks.
forest, You should've heard
January 16, 2008 - 17:57 ET by Chris Normanforest,
You should've heard Beck's radio show yesterday - it was even worse. His producer even commented on how depressing he was. He's really getting into weirdo territory with this.
I agree Chris. It
January 16, 2008 - 17:57 ET by tracheostomyI agree Chris. It happened right about the time Ahmadinejad came to power, and since then it's been nothing but gloom and doom. I dunno why the abrupt change in tone. He used to make really clever comparisons. I liked the old Glenn better. I stopped listening to him after this seemingly permanent "mood swing" or whatever you call it. It's too depressing.
-PJ
"Trake: Your lofty convictions are another blemish on the rump of congregational sectarianism." -Tumbler 5/15/07
You're right about his mood
January 16, 2008 - 18:02 ET by Chris NormanYou're right about his mood swings. Beck can do a perfectly normal interview or story, then go into one of his doom and gloom rants about how both parties are destroying the country, the economy is near collapse, the terrorists are at the door, etc.
Messiah of Doom
January 16, 2008 - 18:01 ET by merlin61I sometimes enjoyed watching Glen, but lately you
are right about being prophet of doom regarding
the economy. Maybe his recent operation on his
posterior is where his brain was found, and that's
why he's so despondent.
He needs an intervention.
January 16, 2008 - 18:03 ET by Chris NormanHe needs an intervention.
The silliest part is how
January 16, 2008 - 18:07 ET by tracheostomyThe silliest part is how Glenn has become a boon for liberals (especially after alienating so many friends in the healthcare industry), but they're so busy running Beckwatch on Huffpo, they can't see him as a benefit to their cause.
-PJ
"Trake: Your lofty convictions are another blemish on the rump of congregational sectarianism." -Tumbler 5/15/07
Nathan -- how's this compare to 2000 election cycle
January 16, 2008 - 17:43 ET by Gary HallBack in 2000, the dot.com bubble crashed in March - on it's way to loosing 58% of it's value before year end, hundreds of companies would start closing their doors; waves of layoffs would spread; almost every economic indicator was heading south; CA was emboiled in it's energy crisis and blackouts; gasoline would be up 56% for the 12 months ending with Clinton's last month in office; home heating oil was on the rise and folks were in pain; Afghanistan had been taken over by the Taliban - the the cruise missles missed Bin Laden; the USS Cole had just been hit; the 2000 Intafada was in the headlines; millions were dying in the DR Congo, Sierra Leone and the Ivory Coast, and Chechyna was no cakewalk; the US had no inspections regime in Iraq and no Iraq policy and the bombing in and around the no-fly zones had been in a two year major escalation; US spy planes and Chinese war planes were in the middle of an escalating game of cat and mouse (Ya'll forgot that one, did you not?); North Korea had been cheating on it's deal brokered by Clinton/Carter; Kyoto was not to be submitted and/or ratified, and..... tax stimulous was in the air because of the expected coming recession. Hmm.
And what was the MSM saying? Here's ABC's Charlie Gibson on Aug 3, 2000:
Now. Back earlier this year when the DOW crossed 13,000, here was Givson's view:
Nathan - I bet the MSM was not rooting for a recession back in 2000, were they? The stark contrast in how they covered the stock market correction then and now, and how they covered fears of a recession then and now - would make for a very interesting piece. I'll give you 4:1 odds I'm right. (;~> gary
recession?
January 16, 2008 - 17:46 ET by forestIt's a good thing most people don't take the media seriously anymore. If they did, all this talk of recession could actually contribute to causing a recession by eroding consumer confidence.
That's what most of the media folks would love to see. A timely recession and Democrat victories at the polls.
Another reason for all the reporting on this recession that doesn't exist is that the media have many minutes and column inches to fill since Iraq is going better. "No terrible news from Iraq? - hmmm - let's try to start a recession!"
I wouldn't make the mistake
January 16, 2008 - 17:54 ET by Chris NormanI wouldn't make the mistake of thinking because people here are onto the bias and liberal agenda of the media, that everyone is. The media can still affect opinion and policy greatly.
10 more months of recession
January 16, 2008 - 18:47 ET by FAQsI predict a full recovery on November 5th.
Back in 1992, the lead story in my local newspaper was the troubled economy for three full days prior to the election. Each lead article was just a re-worded story asking if Bush could hang on despite poor economic news. And each of those were in really big bold headlines. It was just a day or two after the election when some commenter on TV said a revised report came out or something and said the economy had been recovering for three months.
I give credit to the Associated Press for Bill Clinton getting elected.
→ Titanic sails at dawn
January 17, 2008 - 07:39 ET by Cool ArrowBernanke speaks today. Stick around while the clown who is sick pulls the trick of disaster.
Maybe the economy is just "a little bit" pregnant.
We're already seeing foreign interests buying up our credit card debt. Much of that debt includes rates as high as 30%. But that's OK, we're only a little bit in debt.
The "rent to own" bubble (subprime) will be with us for a good while, plastic credit is still swelling, fuel prices are rising, and nobody is talking about how we're financing the war in Iraq.
We've seen this all before, except then we looked to a peanut farmer to lead us out of it.
We've learned nothing. The economy will crash, and Obama will lead us around in the wilderness for four years.
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