ABC News: Obama Holds 'A Double-Digit Lead in Most National Polls'

ABC News: Obama Holds 'A Double-Digit Lead in Most National Polls'

By Mike Bates (Bio | Archive)
October 17, 2008 - 09:07 ET

On Thursday's ABC World News, anchor Charles Gibson's lead-off story was on the presidential campaign:

"Two weeks, five days to go, home stretch. Barack Obama and John McCain began today laying out their closing strategies. And while Obama continues to hold a double-digit lead in most national polls, it is the results in individual states that are all important."

The emphasis on Obama's supposedly huge, possibly insurmountable lead is used by some in the mainstream media to suggest the inevitability of a Democratic win. But you have to wonder, at least in this instance, what polls ABC News is examining. Obama enjoys a lead in most opinion surveys, but it's not as large as Gibson claimed.

Thursday's Gallup Daily poll showed a 49% to 43% Obama lead over McCain.
Rasmussen had it at 50% to 46%.
At Zogby, it was 49% to 43%.
The IBD /TIPP tracking poll showed the race at 45% to 42%
The RealClearPolitics poll average, which incorporates findings of 13 national polls, showed a 49.5 to 42.7 Obama lead.

Prospects for the McCain-Palin are not quite as bleak as some in the mainstream media would like. But that doesn't mean they'll stop trying.

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I said it yesterday and

October 17, 2008 - 09:11 ET by motherbelt

I said it yesterday and will say it again:

These guys are trying to supress Republican turnout by constantly giving the impression that it's hopeless!

Don't let them get away with it. Tell all your friends to get out and vote!!

On the other hand, maybe they will unintentionally make a lot of Democrats, particularly the self-centered "young voters" think their votes aren't needed and they will sleep in.

Voter supression, MB

October 17, 2008 - 09:12 ET by Mike Bates

These guys are trying to supress Republican turnout by constantly giving the impression that it's hopeless!

Now that's a narrative they can agree on.

Homework

October 17, 2008 - 09:21 ET by XJ.Jon

Everyone's assignment is to bring two mccain voters with you when you vote. Swing States get extra credit for any additional mccain voters.

I'm going to the polls with

October 17, 2008 - 09:27 ET by ThatDude

I'm going to the polls with two conservative friends here in northern VA. Extra credit for me!

Good deal. I'm in central

October 17, 2008 - 16:41 ET by GregE

Good deal. I'm in central VA and I have to say that aside from those like you, obviously, northern VA (i.e. southern Washington DC), with the population explosion there, is beginning to dictate to the rest of an otherwise conservative commonwealth of Virginia, and it's pretty sad. Socialistic mindsets running amuck and the rest of VA being overtaken by it.

Obama's mentally challenged voters

October 17, 2008 - 09:39 ET by Mike Bates

Everyone's assignment is to bring two mccain voters with you when you vote.

Looks like Obama's folks are bringing in their own voters.

Narratives

October 17, 2008 - 10:13 ET by KC Mulville

This election has been a study in narratives. So, stop and think what a narrative is.

In fiction, a narrative is how an author develops the result he wants. It's a road map. It's useful because it tells the author what to include or skip over. It's the guide to how to "understand" things. Authors include details that develop the point, and skip distractions.

But reality isn't fiction, and no human is The Author (except perhaps in his own mind). In reality, you can't toss details away, even if they conflict with the story you wish for. It's not your story. In reality, you can't create a result by sticking to a narrative you've chosen. Reality rejects narratives.

What we've seen from the media, countless times, is that they report narratives, not reality. They may not be consciously trying to distort the news. Instead, the problem is that their narrative shapes what they see. They can't understand what they see without their narrative.

How else to explain Gibson's Freudian slip? He's casually claiming that Obama's running away with it, because that's his narrative. That's what Gibson thinks is supposed to happen. Because of the war, the economy, etc., Obama is supposed to win. Since that's what Gibson expects to see happen, that's what Gibson sees. The actual poll numbers show the race tightening.

Media reporters argue that they're objective because they report what they see. But they can't grasp the concept that what they see is shaped by the narratives they believe in.

His Freudian slip is showing

October 17, 2008 - 10:17 ET by Mike Bates

How else to explain Gibson's Freudian slip?

Palin Derangement Syndrome?

Disconnect

October 17, 2008 - 10:45 ET by KC Mulville

The disconnect between their narrative and the reality of Palin's popularity is what fuels their PDS. Why is this non-feminist, pro-life woman so popular? The people shouldn't be cheering for her! Stop! Stop cheering for her!

Look, Math is hard

October 17, 2008 - 09:30 ET by IamTinman

Look, Math is hard especially for the MSM.

7% with a 3% margin of error becomes 10% for guys like Gibson and 6% will always be rounded up to double digits as long as Obama is in the lead.

The only poll that counts is the polling booth that you vote in on Nov 4th. Everything else is opinion and worth nothing unless you're a mindless sheep who only wants to follow the herd.

Charles Gibson is a liar...

October 17, 2008 - 09:31 ET by vrwc13

This is why I do not watch/listen to ABC/NBC/CBS, nor have I for more than a decade. They are liars and deceivers, whether they believe or realize it or not.

I get my news from Drudge.

Oh come on Michael..

October 17, 2008 - 09:46 ET by Gary Hall

Oh come on Michael.. can't you add? Are you suggesting that Charles Gibson can't add?

Look. 6 + 4 + 6 + 3 + 5 = 24 points. That is a double-digit lead!

Hee hee. (;~> gary

Double-digit lead, Gary

October 17, 2008 - 09:48 ET by Mike Bates

Thanks for that EZ explanation. I'm still bogged down with figuring out that three-letter word J-O-B-S.

J-O-B-S

October 17, 2008 - 09:53 ET by Gary Hall

I suppose he'd argue that at least he didn't put an "e" in it.

Note: A CBS poll, Oct. 17 th of registered voters showed a 4 % edge for Obama. No, I'm not going to add it to the total for Gibson. Well, I guess that ABC would not want to mention that one, would they?

But didn't I see someone report last night that one poll of likely voters, put it a only 2 points! gary

But didn't I see someone

October 17, 2008 - 09:57 ET by Mike Bates

But didn't I see someone report last night that one poll of likely voters, put it a only 2 points!

You did, Gary, it's the Gallup "traditional" likely voter model. Which I guess doesn't count mainly because it makes the race too close.

The other reason for thr

October 17, 2008 - 09:47 ET by midnight cowboy

The other reason for the gross distortion of an Obama lead is, if McCain somehow pulls this off, the libs and the media (one of the same) will be screaming of a stolen elction, with endless lawsuits and recounts.

endless lawsuits and recounts

October 17, 2008 - 09:52 ET by Mike Bates

And possibly, what some folks have mentioned to me they're concerned with, riots.

Obama IS up by double digits

October 17, 2008 - 09:51 ET by SickofLibs

Obama up by 6 in Gallup, Rasmussen by 4, Zogby by 7, IBD by 3.

6 + 4 + 7 + 3 = 20

Simple math.

New math, Sick

October 17, 2008 - 09:53 ET by Mike Bates

I had no idea how many Mensans there are over here. Thanks!!

Kerry and Gore both led in

October 17, 2008 - 10:01 ET by Kevpot

Kerry and Gore both led in the 'polls' too. Exit polls on election day had the media proclaiming Kerry the clear winner.

They will stoop to any level to elect the Lightworker. This is cleary an attempt to discourage voter turnout. The MSM sickens me.

Leading in the polls

October 17, 2008 - 10:05 ET by Mike Bates

In 1980, the polls repeatedly showed the presidential election "too close to call." Ronald Reagan won 44 states.

The dream scenario for me

October 17, 2008 - 10:04 ET by Prester John

....would be to watch the MSM slowly go into a panic as they see Indiana (which closes early) come in solidly for McCain. And then they see a Kerry state like New Hampshire come in (barely) for McCain, soon to be followed by North Carolina and Virginia which dashes their hopes of a BHO landslide. And then watch as they can't call Pennsylvania or Michigan early for BHO because of heavy turn out in the rural areas in those states, while Florida and Ohio come in with early leads for McCain.

Meanwhile the remainder of the South goes for McCain as do the Plains states, with Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin too close to call.

Which of course then means it's all up to New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada (which is not necessarily a good thing).

That would be some serious popcorn eating time.

The dream scenario for me

October 17, 2008 - 10:07 ET by Mike Bates

would be for the exit polls to show a GOP landslide. But I don't dream very often.

Gibson is a liar

October 17, 2008 - 10:08 ET by Alpedhuez55

Well, the simple statement that "Obama continues to hold a double-digit lead in most national polls," is false. At the moment only two polls on the RCP index are over 10, the CBS/NYT & Hotline FD tracking. Even if you go back to last week, you only add Newsweek and ABC polls making it less than 1/4 of the polls in double digits.

Funny how you never see the media mention that McCain has been puling closer since the second debate. Funy how they tend to report the highest Obama lead in the polls often at the expense of downplaying their own polls.

=================================

"I drink a great deal. I sleep a little, and I smoke cigar after cigar. That is why I am in two-hundred-percent form."
-- Winston Churchill

As Dan Rather said

October 17, 2008 - 10:14 ET by Mike Bates

"I think you can be an honest person and lie about any number of things."

When Dan Rather said that...

October 17, 2008 - 10:18 ET by vrwc13

...he was lying.

Rather lied

October 17, 2008 - 10:22 ET by Mike Bates

We see it that way, but Dan would probably contend he was telling the truth "as I see it."

is is

October 17, 2008 - 10:34 ET by vrwc13

...or Rather may have been saying that he is telling the truth, depending upon what the definition of is is!

Liberals have finally

October 17, 2008 - 10:09 ET by cocodrie

Liberals have finally stumbled onto something they are good at. They are better than the mafia used to be with the numbers racket.

Lead in the polls indeed!

October 17, 2008 - 10:21 ET by bassndude

Lead in the polls indeed! But he hedged his bet with a "its the states that matter". An admission that national polls have very little in common with results, when it comes to the presidential election. AP/Yahoo and several others today have it at a 2 point spread, (+Obama). The bottom line is, if conservitives and anti socilaists vote, Mac wins. If conservitives and anti socialists stay home, Obama wins. And the dirty little seceret is, the MSM knows this. Anytime the AP has a 2 pt spread, dems up, you know it reads the other way. I think it was a weighted poll. After all, Yahoo is owned by Google, and we all know the AP leans left. Its just the best they could do. I am not voting for Mac so much as I am voting aginst Obama.

Save a SeAL, club a liberal!!

Mostly against Obama

October 17, 2008 - 10:24 ET by Mike Bates

I am not voting for Mac so much as I am voting aginst Obama.

Unfortunately, the last several elections have been that way. In 2000, an editor asked me what I liked best about Bush. My answer was that he wasn't Gore.

Ditto...!!!

October 17, 2008 - 10:30 ET by LionKing

I am not voting for Mac so much as I am voting aginst Obama.

That is exactly how I feel. I am not a big McCain fan. With Palin on the ticket, I do not feel as dirty voting for McCain, a moderate.

I am hoping that McCain has learned how quickly the MSM and Democrats turned on their maverick friend. This middle-ground crap is just pandering to the left; the left are never satisified until they get it their way.

If conservatives are RIGHT, then liberals must be WRONG.

I'll go another way

October 17, 2008 - 10:27 ET by tater

I'll go another way bass...I'm voting for Palin and voting against Obama. McCain just happens to be in the middle.

www.theholyrosary.org

"There is no problem, I tell you, no matter how difficult it is, that we can not resolve by the prayer of the Holy Rosary." -Sister Lucia

"Pollster Scott Rasmussen,

October 17, 2008 - 10:28 ET by Kevpot

"Pollster Scott Rasmussen, for example, weights current polls so that
Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 39.3% to 33% margin, while
pollster John Zogby adjusts polls so that Democrats account for around
38% of the electorate and Republicans, 36%. So even if a particular
sample of calls shows different ratios, the pollsters adjust to fit
that formula.

"What troubles me is when I see some of my colleagues have 27% of
the respondents that are Republicans. That's just not America, period,"
says Mr. Zogby, whose polls have shown Sen. Obama with a lead ranging
from two to six points this month."

Latest AP/Yahoo poll, according to Drudge, has it 44-42. This is far from over....

America - my way

October 17, 2008 - 10:32 ET by Mike Bates

"What troubles me is when I see some of my colleagues have 27% of
the respondents that are Republicans. That's just not America, period,". . .

The MSM would love to have that down to about 2.7%. Or less.

Meanwhile....

October 17, 2008 - 10:56 ET by Prester John

...Juan Williams is saying that if Obama doesn't have at least a 5% lead in the polls he loses.

And you would have to imagine that the BHO campaign and the MSM is thinking the exact same thing, thus the constant highlighting of polls with a 5+ lead in an attempt to demoralize the McCain/anti-BHO voters.

Interesting times we live in.