CBS/NYT, Newsweek Bring Up Rear As Least Accurate Polls

Photo of Mark Finkelstein.
By Mark Finkelstein (Bio | Archive)
November 6, 2008 - 07:08 ET

Via Drudge. According to a study performed by a Fordham University scholar, the least accurate of the 20 presidential polls were those performed by CBS/New York Times and, in dead last, Newsweek.

In its final poll, CBS/Times forecast an 11-point Obama margin, 52-41.  Newsweek was even more "optimistic", foreseeing a 12-point Obama win, 53-41.  

According to Fordham's Costas Panagopoulos, Obama's winning margin was 6.15 points.  So the two big polling losers were wrong by a factor of roughly 100%.  Not very accurate, you might say.  But if the polls were sufficient to suppress Republican voter enthusiasm in a few key districts, surely worth any temporary stain on their reputations to the liberal outlets.  Come on, President-elect Obama has said we're all going to have to make sacrifices!

Note:  The winners were Rasmussen and Pew, both of whose final calls were spot on. 


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shocker

November 6, 2008 - 12:01 ET by sawing batta

Wait, Rassmussen correct, NYT and Newsweek wrong?

(was there ever any doubt that scott would be far closer to the truth and that the Times and Newsweek would be ACTIVELY trying to create the truth)

 

Ironic, isn't it?  The MSM

November 6, 2008 - 12:10 ET by Mark Finkelstein

Ironic, isn't it?  The MSM often tried to dismiss Rasmussen as a partisan Republican.  Who's partisan now?

Rasmussen & Pew were only correct IF

November 6, 2008 - 15:49 ET by Dee Bunk

their formulas accounted for the other poll bias and it's effect on having bandwagon jumpers and suppressing conservative votes. Also their formulas needed to account for the voter fraud.  

I don't think they accounted for either of those things, making their polls wrong also.  The combination of bandwagon jumpers and voter suppression had to have at least a 2-3 point effect and voter fraud probably had a 2-3 point effect so the only polls that got it right were the ones (if any) that had it at a 0-2 pt margin.