With Sen. Barack Obama's present lead in the polls, there's been hand-wringing in the media that he could possibly lose the race due to the so-called Bradley Effect, wherein racist white voters lie to pollsters on the telephone about their voting preferences in order to, well, not sound racist.
But as a former Bradley campaign staffer writes in an October 19 op-ed for the New York Times, it was Bradley's liberal policies and an aggressive get-out-the-vote effort by the GOP that put George Deukmejian into the Governor's Mansion. Writes Blair Levin (via Karen Tumulty of Time magazine):
On election night in 1982, with 3,000 supporters celebrating prematurely at a downtown hotel, I was upstairs reviewing early results that suggested Bradley would probably lose.
But he wasn’t losing because of race. He was losing because an unpopular gun control initiative and an aggressive Republican absentee ballot program generated hundreds of thousands of Republican votes no pollster anticipated, giving Mr. Deukmejian a narrow victory.
Story Continues Below Ad ↓This is not to say that race wasn’t an issue; it was in 1982 and it has been since. But to those who keep citing the Bradley effect — not so fast. It’s more complicated than you think.
Levin is now in the private sector as a financier, but he's still a backer of liberal Democrats, judging from his campaign contributions to Democratic Senate hopefuls Al Franken (Minn.) and Mark Warner (Va.), as well as Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.
While I tip my hat to Time's Karen Tumulty for noticing Levin's op-ed and pushing it to her magazine's Swampland blog readers, I'm not holding my breath for many others in the media to start arguing that ideology and policy considerations, not race, could end up sinking Obama when all is said and done.
—Ken Shepherd is Managing Editor of NewsBusters
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Comments Policy
The media may have some
Mon, 10/20/2008 - 10:03 ET by Hunter12The media may have some validity in claiming a vote against Obama must be about race. They haven't reported any positions he's taken on any of the hot-button issues that doomed Bradley. Here's a man who can be demonstrated to be the most liberal person to ever seek the office and the electrorate is being told he's a centrist, "uniter" by the MSM.
"An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last." - Sir Winston Churchill
I guarantee you that more
Mon, 10/20/2008 - 10:10 ET by mattmI guarantee you that more people (including Colin Powell?) are going to vote for Obama because of race than will vote against them for that reason.
I hear them at work. They say "it's time we had a black president'...it's all they care about. Voter turnout among Blacks will be 3 times higher than usual, at least. Are they voting because he's got a plan, or because he's got more melanin in his skin cells than McCain does?
Ask these RACE voters if thay sent BHO $$$s ? someone is
Mon, 10/20/2008 - 10:23 ET by JayTeeWe must have some monthly payroll deductions happening for the BHO Campaign with these 150 mill months every month . . ?
Fishy money
Mon, 10/20/2008 - 13:05 ET by Ten7sSomething's just not right about Obama's fundraising. My guess is that someone's trying to play kingmaker by pumping a chunk of their wealth through small donations to circumvent election law.
Hey seventy,
Mon, 10/20/2008 - 14:24 ET by IamTinmanHave you ever heard of a guy named George Soros?
How are all these rich
Mon, 10/20/2008 - 10:34 ET by Hunter12How are all these rich liberals, black and white, planning to shelter their money to keep Obama from taking it? I guess we'll have a large enclave living next to Bono in the Netherlands, where he fled to avoid Irish taxes. When I hear people lauding Obama's tax plan, I always want to ask two questions. How many people are employed by the guy making $40 grand a year and are we going to have to cage these rich people we are going to soak to get the money to give tax rebates to people who don't pay taxes? American corporations will just follow the Sun.
"An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last." - Sir Winston Churchill
Wealth isn't taxed
Mon, 10/20/2008 - 13:37 ET by Ten7sIncome not wealth is taxed. And there are many ways to shelter income. Wealthy Liberals act like they're being magnanamous by supporting higher taxes, when the reality is that their ox isn't getting gored. What's more, high taxation keeps others from building wealth, which keeps the wealthy powerful.
Dem Bias in all Polls
Mon, 10/20/2008 - 10:24 ET by oscar97Since their is a dem bias in news it will inevitably follow into the polling business. People do naturally want to tell people what they want to hear. As the case with Bush approval numbers, the media bashed him for the last 4 years until the polls just follow the media's lead.
»→ Bradley effect
Mon, 10/20/2008 - 10:44 ET by Cool ArrowSimply put, the Bradley Effect is descriptive of an individual's tendency to avoid browbeating and vote privately.
Underdog & Pitbull 08
You said it!
Mon, 10/20/2008 - 12:09 ET by heldmywAnd in this superpartisan atmosphere, being assaulted or having your property damaged by Obamatons is a real threat.
As a result, I have not discussed the election, my choice for President, or any of the other aspects of this cycle. I have gone so far as to hang up on three pollsters.
I have my absentee ballot, which I will hand deliver. I will have my vote count, and pray that the Tanning Bed Media and all of the racist liberals are weeping into their lattes after the votes are counted.
...And 'just in case', I'm picking up a nice 12-gauge shotgun.
You never know what the aftermath may be like.
Bradley Effect AA
Mon, 10/20/2008 - 12:57 ET by Ten7sCorrect! Its not caused by "racism". The fact of the matter is that most people who've worked for any large corporation or firm in the last 20 years have learned that not appearing to be a rabid supporter of affirmative action in ALL its forms ANYTIME its mentioned can cost them promotions and get them canned when its time for "downsizing".
Know thyself...or not.
Mon, 10/20/2008 - 10:44 ET by not_lima_HIt’s unfortunate if some are intimidated by the racist label. But if they answer with a dishonest yes does that necessarily mean they’re racist or just intimidated? Anyway, those that answer no are being called racist too so don’t sweat it. Of course the overwhelming majority of African Americans voting for Obama doesn’t equate to any racism.
BTW Deukmejian was a great governor.
And Deukmejian went on to a
Mon, 10/20/2008 - 10:59 ET by Ken ShepherdAnd Deukmejian went on to a very strong reelection in 1986, after voters had seen his judgment and policies in effect for four years. And 1986 was hardly a good year for Republicans (GOP lost the Senate that year).