AP's Weird Science: Who Needs Data When You Have Anecdotes?

Photo of Ken Shepherd.

Update below.

Anecdotal evidence is pretty much useless in science, a discipline steeped in empirical data. But that's no matter to the Associated Press or the Washington Post, which published an August 31 AP article about how "Scientists See Fewer Fireflies." The subheading quickly qualified that the "[e]vidence is anecdotal, but experts fault sprawl, pollution."

Of course some of the quoted experts in Casey's article aren't really experts, they're amateur scientists at best, with sprawl and pollution serving as coded language for faulting capitalism for allegedly raping the environment.

AP writer Michael Casey waited until the fifth paragraph of his Thailand-bylined article to confess that "[t]he evidence is entirely anecdotal but anecdotes abound" about a mass worldwide holocaust of the flying luminous bugs.

This after quoting one Preecha Jiabyu, a tour guide on Thailand's Mae Klong River, who dropped an unsubstantiated statistic for readers. "The firefly populations have dropped 70 percent in the past three years," insisted Preecha, whose entomological credentials Casey failed to establish for readers.

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Casey failed to examine how reliable the 70 percent figure is or if it was just a guesstimation of Preecha, but he did notes how Preecha competes with "polluting motorboats" for tourism business on the river.

The Thai tour guide was not the only non-academic "expert" consulted. Casey quoted one Lynn Faust, who has "spent a decade researching fireflies on her 40-acre farm in Knoxville, Tenn., but gave up on one species because she stopped seeing it."

Faust relayed to the AP her decidedly politically-tinged gripe:

It's these McMansions with their floodlights. One house has 32 lights. Why do you need so many lights?

Of course, Faust's scientific credentials were also unexplored, probably because she likewise is not an academic. Faust is, after all, an amateur naturalist lamenting a problem that may not actually exist except according to her observations in, literally, her own backyard.

But greedy capitalism spoiling the priceless wonder of nature is too juicy a storyline to let numbers, or the lack thereof, get in the way.

Update (1:26 a.m. CDT): ABCNews.com now has this story in their top headlines rotation. Casey is bylined as an AP "environmental writer."

The front page tease:

Lights Out: Why Are Fireflies Vanishing? No one's sure why, but firefly populations are dwindling all around the world. 

—Ken Shepherd is Managing Editor of NewsBusters


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Firefly Reality

Who would have ever thought I would be explaining fireflies here, but they are something which I have been nurturing for years among other of God's creatures.

Fireflies have little to do with pollution or urban sprawl. Nothing can live in pollution so that is a non issue and nothing lives well in urban sprawl either as mowed lawns and pruned hedges provide nothing nourishment except the basic ants and flies.

Fireflies require damp areas in a special niche. They require unmown areas and when one provides that niche even in the size of house you too can have fireflies providing they are in the area.

They do though have cycles due to naturual events like a storm killing them, cool spells retarding them to droughts. The real culprit at times can be a firefly predator which mimics the bug and eats them.

So as all wildlife needs undisturbed areas, unless the predator bug is living in houses and building them, it has little to do with people.

But if they are spraying for malaria that is the definite choice as dead people from mosquitos is horrid. Then the fireflies can live somewhere else as they don't live to put on shows for people and don't even know people exist.

Imagine that.

 

 

*HIC IACET ARTORIVS REX QVONDAM REXQVE FVTVRVS

Lightning Bugs!

I've never called them fireflies.

I have noticed that the number of lightning bugs in my area is down probably about 90 percent. I live in southern Kentucky about 20 miles (we say, "as the crow flies") from the Tennessee line.

Normally, we have some lightning bugs out in late April and then in June they sort of take over the night.

This year, though, we had none out in April and very few in June.

I don't think it has anything to do with development because I live in a rural area. There's no development immediate to my location. I do think that an intensely cold and very late April freeze in 2007 followed by a 90 day drought in the summer did more to decimate the lightning bug population. It was hard on everything. That combination of weather was hard on wildlife, trees, crops, bushes, and even structures.

I can't remember the exact dates, but late in April in 2007 for three consecutive nights it was 18 degrees at my house. That's cold for winter in southern/western Kentucky. By the end of July it was 105 degrees for a couple of days. We went 32 consecutive days with highs exceeding 94 degrees. Brutal! There was no rain, either. That kind of weather is tough on everything.

They really should talk to someone who knows what the heck they're talking about.

People like the woman in Knoxville should come out and say that she hates "McMansions" and that she wants government to make her happy by outlawing the construction of such houses. That's the truth about her. She uses lightning bugs (the fact that she calls them "fireflies" tells me she's a yankee) as one of a myriad of things to justify her hatred of the middle class.

Personally, I don't like those houses either. I don't like subdivisions. It's my personal choice. I do not condemn people for living in them. I don't want the government to prevent their construction.

Q: What's the difference between an environmentalist and a developer?

A: An environmentalist owns a house in the woods and a developer wants to build one there.

Not sure about the Yankee comment

but here in the Garden State we've always called them lightningbugs. Me thinks that she might be a double transplant  - moving from NY or CT, then to PA, then to her newest location, complaining bout the taxes she didn't want to pay, but thinks everyone else should pay.

There is no sense in being stupid, if you can't prove it! - my dad V

Once again, I am abjectly and profusely sorry.

  They are all in my yard. We have a 27.3455% increase in fireflies. And a 253.34778% increase in those noisy ones, you know, the ones that leave holes in your yard, and their dead crusty exoskeleton on the trees, no, no, they are really really noisy around dusk, no, no, they are kind of big and really noisy, oh nevermind...

  All anecdotally, you understand,

We don't have lightning bugs

We don't have lightning bugs around here, but we have enough cicadas to rent them out if you want some. 

No, not cicada's

  you know the big noisy ones, they will start their noisiness in unison sometimes and get louder exponentially...

I thought Firefly was one of

I thought Firefly was one of the main characters in Duck Soup. We have some lightening bugs here, but not as many as we used to.