'Hiring Fizzles:' Unemployment Rate Drops as 522,000 Give Up Jobs Search
About 45,000 fewer jobs were added in April than economists expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.1 percent due to more than a half million people giving up the job search. CNN Money reacted with the headline “hiring fizzles.”
University of Maryland Economist Peter Morici wrote in response the jobs report, “The economy added 115,000 jobs in April - much less than expected and not enough to keep up with natural population growth. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent because another 522,000 adults quit looking for work and are no longer counted.”
According to AEI’s James Pethokoukis the labor force participation rate is at the lowest level since 1981, and if it “had stayed the same as in March, unemployment rate would have risen to 8.4%” he tweeted.
Two days before the April jobs report was released, CNN Money published an article on “The 86 million invisible unemployed,” complete with a graphic depicting Americans not in the labor force by age group. According to that story, roughly 36 million of them are over 20-something and under age 65 and “The truth is, the Labor Department simply doesn't know why they're not in the labor force.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April report on May 4 showing 115,000 jobs added and an 8.1 percent unemployment rate. It was the second disappointing jobs report in a row from the BLS.
Following the March jobs report which showed only 120,000 jobs gained, a huge disappointment when 200,000 were forecast, the media coverage was filled with spin especially on MSNBC.
One of the arguments made by a number of media outlets, including MSNBC, was that a single month with a bad jobs report is not important as the trend, and the trend is good. Will they still be able to say that after April’s disappointing report?
During Martin Bashir’s April 6 program the picture on the screen said “Upswing” with picture of people in suits. Bashir interviewed journalist and author William Cohan who said this month’s data was a “pothole” and that one month is less important than the trend.
“The last three months we’ve created an average of 212,000 jobs a month, which is pretty darn good, and the overall rate of unemployment has come down to about 8.2 -- some people have said, ‘well, that’s because people have stopped looking for jobs’ -- but look, I think we’re on a very solid trend now. As you said, 4 million new jobs in four years, that’s something to be pretty proud of,” Cohan said. But neither Bashir, nor Cohan pointed out that since February 2009 there has still been a net loss of 740,000 jobs. And the Obama administration has fallen far from keeping its jobs promises.
Democratic strategist Krystal Ball also argued during an interview on “Jansing & Co.” that day that the March report could be an aberration, and might be revised upward. While the April data casts some doubt on her “aberration” theory, there were positive revisions in the April report: +19,000 for February and +34,000 for March.
Economist Nigel Gault of IHS Global Insight told Reuters that day, “I think that numbers will be better in the coming months.” While Caroline Baum of Bloomberg News claimed there is little difference between 120,000 and 220,000 jobs … “In a labor force of about 155 million, 100,000 is a rounding error.” Time magazine’s Adam Sorenson also spun the March report with the claim of “statistical noise.”
- Julia A. Seymour's blog
- Login to post comments
Comments
522,000 people dropping out
Submitted by forest on Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:42am.
522,000 people dropping out of the workforce in one month is an absolute disaster. The other numbers don't mean squat.
The media are touting that by
Submitted by motherbelt on Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:56am.
The media are touting that by election day, unemployment will be 7.9%.
Rush had some numbers that showed no president has been reelected with unemployment above 8%.
Apparently they think the opposite is also true, and if it's at 7.9, it's a lock.
They simply ignore all other factors.
There are hundreds of
Submitted by DontFeedTheTrolls on Fri, 05/04/2012 - 2:55pm.
There are hundreds of thousands of people each year, and since 2009 probably totaling in the millions, in their late fifties who have taken an 'early out' (at a highly reduced income level) and are living off their savings waiting to hit 62 and tap SS. These people had planned to work till 65 or later and then take retirement. They are among the many uncounted in the unemployment numbers.
I retired at 53, and might
Submitted by Dan The Man 2 on Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:01pm.
I retired at 53, and might get me a job in Vegas when I move there.
BS way to measure unemployment
Submitted by scottyusmc on Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:50am.
This is absolute BS.
So we're saying that if everoyone would just stop looking for work, we'd have full employment. LMFAO!!!!! This is the most corrupt statistical assessment I think I've ever heard of. If BOB think this is the winning issue - and God forbid it works, what with the lapdog media echoing the talking point, this country is finished... But then again, isn't that BOB's real objective???
But, see?
Submitted by almostacowboy on Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:19am.
This way, along about September, Dear Leader will say to the nation -
"Under mah administration..........I have turned the 'conomy 'round. Only 23 people......are still lookin' for a job" [the other 30M have either retired or quit looking].
We are increasingly living in a fantasy world.
Submitted by c5then on Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:23am.
Between the administration and the MSM, the population is being fed an ever increasing and ever more fictional fantasy world so as to protect the reputation, popularity and re-election chances of our current disaster to inhabit 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Have these people stopped eating and drinking and living? NO! what is happening is that the underground economy of barter is slowly growing. This is EXACTLY what happened in the 1930's too. As the government tries to exert more and more control, more and more people drop out of the official economy and go "underground".
Measuring unemployement by using the number of people officially requesting help from the State agencies is stupid and only serves the government's goal of making the official number as low as possible. Just like their method of measuring inflation serves only the same purpose, to make the official inflation number as low as possible.
Reality: We are above 10% unemployement and some areas are above 15%. Inflation is running above 5% annualy and may pick up to near 8-10% in the near future (as measured in the 1960's). The economy is approaching a "double dip" as it is in Europe and we are fast approaching an economic cliff when the tax rates for everybody, especially small businesses, will increase in January thus causing a round (or two) of disasterous lay-offs.
And what happens when all of the near-foreclosed homeowners simply throw-up their hands and give up? We are looking at a major banking disaster that will dwarf the earlier one because we never allowed the rot to be cleaned out. We propped up the weak giants and allowed them to buy their weaker, smaller competitors with interest free taxpayer money. All of the old problems, plus all of the new problems, still exist. What about the massive credit card debt that consumers have of near $20 trillion??!!! That gets defaulted on too at the same time and has to be written off. We had "too big to fail". Now we have created "too big to save even if we wanted to".
When reality hits and this balloon can no longer be kept afloat with band-aids and scotch tape, the resulting "pop" of housing crashing another 30%, commercial real-estate crashing and most of the major banks failing is going to make the Great Depression" look like a little slow period by comparison.
Madison and Jefferson and Franklin built a Republic - Roberts killed it!
Looks like a perfect time for
Submitted by LAM SON 719 on Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:42am.
Looks like a perfect time for obama to head out on a another vacation.
Job growth? Or, is it simply a "replacement" of what was lost.
Submitted by Gary Hall on Fri, 05/04/2012 - 12:32pm.
Seems to me that we look at this whole situation incorrectly, and not just this time around.
Typical scenario - economy is purring along w/ solid GDP, rising tax revenue, and the number of folks employed (in the labor force) actually on the rise. Then, we have a correction - a collapse - a pullback - a recession, whatever.
Next, what occurs is a bottoming out and then a re-hiring of workers will commence. At some point in time (hopefully that will occur eventually this time around) you get it back to where you were, and from that point forward, we experience job growth.
At this point in time, as are not back to the point were we were before the collapse, we must then still be in the re-hiring of workers. I'd refer to this as simply, a replacement- getting back to where we were.
Once we get back to where we were prior to the economic event which caused the reversal, then, and only then can we start experience "job growth."
Under Obama, we have not yet experienced any job growth; rather, we only replaced a portion of the jobs lost.
(;~/ gary
Except this time it's different
Submitted by c5then on Fri, 05/04/2012 - 2:07pm.
It has usually been the startups and the micro-businesses that have driven the job growth and the economic acceleration coming out of recessions. But because of all the new and onerous regulations over the last 10 years and the extremely uncertain tax situation, those startups aren't happening.
They typical cycle of "creative destruction" has been arrested and we are concentrating alot of effort and capital in trying to maintain the status quo rather than let the cycle continue under it's normal flow.
Add to that the effect of the larger businesses realizing that they can produce enough and make more by keeping their workforce small and nimble. The productivity gains in the last 5 years or so have shown that the major corporations can do with less employees than they thought. The hiring will not come from large businesses replacing those who they laid off, because they don't need them. The hiring will also not come from small startups who pick a lucky niche and need to expand because the startups are almost non-existent.
I look for the Admin and the media to start the marketing campaign to reset the thinking of the public from 5% unemployment and 3-4% GDP growth being normal to the "new normal" of 7% unemployement and GDP growth of 2%.
Madison and Jefferson and Franklin built a Republic - Roberts killed it!
lying with statistics...
Submitted by Patriot_765 on Fri, 05/04/2012 - 7:38pm.
Grrrrr.. this is madening....
U2 labor number being tossed about measures folks who are unemployed from 1-12 months. they didn't quit lookin for work, they have been unemployed so long, they are now falling out of the back end of the unemployement definition..
That's why this number is gettin lower...
It's certainly not an improvement!
lying with statistics...
Submitted by Patriot_765 on Fri, 05/04/2012 - 7:38pm.
Grrrrr.. this is madening....
U2 labor number being tossed about measures folks who are unemployed from 1-12 months. they didn't quit lookin for work, they have been unemployed so long, they are now falling out of the back end of the unemployement definition..
That's why this number is gettin lower...
It's certainly not an improvement!
This is the Answer for the Dems!!!
Submitted by tcm14 on Sat, 05/05/2012 - 4:55am.
If they can just persuade millions more people to stop looking for work, the unemployment rate will go way down to where they want it. Now how can they convince these selfish people to stop looking for work?