CNN amped up the alarmism about swine flu April 30 when co-host John Roberts interviewed Dr. Martin Blaser of NYU without rounding out the segment with other opinions.
Roberts asked Blaser to put the virus, which had already sickened 109 people in ten states, "in perspective."
Blaser responded, "This is a pandemic. It's all over the world. Right now it's early and it's mild so everybody's at risk. But right now the risk is low."
On April 29, the World Health Organization raised its alert level to stage 5, which "is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries," according to WHO Web site. Phase 6 is "the pandemic phase."Roberts also asked Blaser to respond to a prediction by John Barry, author of a book about the worst flu epidemic in history, that this virus would act in the same manner.
"John Barry, who wrote a fabulous book on the 1918 flu pandemic called ‘The Great Influenza', thinks this is just the opening act of a very long play. That this virus is probably going to go away for a little while and then maybe next winter or early next year come back with a vengeance. What do you think?" Roberts asked.
Blaser said, "I think that's the most likely scenario because of, because influenza is very influenced by the season and in 1918 it came. There was a little bump in the early summer. It went underground and then it did come back with a vengeance. And that would be predictable here."
Roberts didn't mention that the 1918 Spanish flu killed an estimated 50 million people or ask Blaser if he was suggesting that there might be such serious loss of life if the swine flu returns. He also didn't mention the views of others who think the H1N1 virus will be less severe than even seasonal flu -- which takes an estimated 36,000 lives a year in the U.S.
According to the Los Angeles Times, "scientists studying the virus are coming to the consensus that this hybrid strain of influenza -- at least in its current form -- isn't shaping up to be as fatal as the strains that caused some previous pandemics."
The Times cited a few scientists including Richard Webby, an influenza virologist at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital who said: "This virus doesn't have anywhere near the capacity to kill like the 1918 virus."
"‘There are certain characteristics, molecular signatures, which this virus lacks,' said Peter Palese, a microbiologist and influenza expert at Mt. Sinai Medical Center in New York. In particular, the swine flu lacks an amino acid that appears to increase the number of virus particles in the lungs and make the disease more deadly," Karen Kaplan and Alan Zarembo wrote.
The bottom line, according to the Times, was that we probably wouldn't see this flu "dwarf a typical flu season." One applied mathematics professor, Dirk Brockmann, told the Times his worst-case scenario based on a computer model would result in 1,700 people sick after four weeks.
—Julia A. Seymour is an assistant editor for the Business & Media Institute.




















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Never let.....................
April 30, 2009 - 13:51 ET by BEGRUNTa good crisis go to waste....right Rahm?
"And let's have no displays of indignation......if we've told lies, you've told half lies, and a man, who lies like me, merely hides the truth, but a man who tells half lies, has forgotten where he put it"
Dryden............Lawrence of Arabia
I might be in the minority,
April 30, 2009 - 14:10 ET by BruzillaI might be in the minority, but I don't think the media has over-hyped this virus. In fact, I think there's been a concerted effort to downplay the risk, and all for financial or political reasons.
You might want to remember that before it mutated into it's highly-lethal form, the 1918 flu was just an annoying little bug that did little more than make people cough. This new flu bug has shown an ability to adapt itself to at least three different DNA strains, which makes it the most adaptive flu bug ever. I think there's an excellent chance this thing could mutate again, and at any time, into something no one is prepared for.
Just like AGW no science, just a co2 tax, Humm a travel tax?
April 30, 2009 - 14:12 ET by upcountrywaterTravelers have extra money that why they travel. So tax them for alledged flu spreading, or common cold spreading...
Got to have someone PAY!!!!
One applied mathematics professor, Dirk Brockmann, told the Times his
worst-case scenario based on a computer model would result in 1,700
people sick after four weeks.
In one month the 2009 swine flu, will not be mentioned EVER, on the MSM!
Reagan VS 0bama
There's every reason to
April 30, 2009 - 14:32 ET by BruzillaThere's every reason to think that professor might be right, but again... with a virus you're always just one mutation away from a near 100% mortality rate too. As long as the virus doesn't mutate into something more virulent, that 1,700 will be a good number. If it doe's we'll see 1,700 dead per hour.
Viruses are one thing where you should always hope for the best, but plan for the worst.
Well Bruzilla, the way I
April 30, 2009 - 14:42 ET by QueenMumWell Bruzilla, the way I have to look at it is that there's nothing we can do about a mutation. And forgive my skepticism, but 100% mortality rate? The mortality rate for Ebola is 50-89%.
Civilization is the progress toward a society of privacy. The savage's whole existence is public, ruled by the laws of the tribe. Civilization is the process of setting man free from men. - Ayn Rand
B, Like a "5" rating, This is TOTAL hysteria!
April 30, 2009 - 14:56 ET by upcountrywaterThat's an example of planning for the worst! Right in our faces.
The private sector takes a hit( money losses) on not being able to conduct business.
Bureaucrats LOVE jerking around, the public.
A flu Tax is comming..
Reagan VS 0bama
Flu panic
April 30, 2009 - 14:29 ET by QueenMumI'd like to add this from the Chicago Tribune:
Scientists see this flu strain as relatively mild.
Civilization is the progress toward a society of privacy. The savage's whole existence is public, ruled by the laws of the tribe. Civilization is the process of setting man free from men. - Ayn Rand
I believe the hype the media
April 30, 2009 - 14:32 ET by b4m4wyI believe the hype the media is putting on the swine, is to try divert attention from the economy. It's all a matter of smoke and mirrors, draw attention to one hand while the other is reaching around stealing your wallet....
It's not a diversion, but
April 30, 2009 - 15:38 ET by average-danIt's not a diversion, but rather another overblown crisis from which we must all be saved by our government.
Porkulus spending, swine flu, socialist pigs. Notice the pattern?
a-d... Yep, couldn't agree
April 30, 2009 - 15:41 ET by bigtimera-d...
Yep, couldn't agree more.
Doubling down on stupid is not a particularly good idea. ~Andrew Breitbart
You are so right,
April 30, 2009 - 15:49 ET by QueenMumYou are so right, dan.
"Health officials in the United States said Thursday the number of confirmed cases had risen to 109. President Barack Obama told Americans the government was "taking the utmost precautions and preparations" to stop the virus." - Source: AP
Yessiree! Our Dear Leader has the power to stop viruses. And when the panic dies down, he'll take the credit despite the fact that it was George Bush's administration that put the policies in place to deal with such contingencies.
Civilization is the progress toward a society of privacy. The savage's whole existence is public, ruled by the laws of the tribe. Civilization is the process of setting man free from men. - Ayn Rand
1918 vs. Now
April 30, 2009 - 14:39 ET by Red Jeep1. Hand washing by Doctors and washing hands between patients was not a common practice. Germs were not understood.
2. No penicillin or any other antibiotics.
Good points, Jeep.
April 30, 2009 - 14:46 ET by QueenMumGood points, Jeep. Pneumonia is the most common complication of the flu. I'd like to know how many of the deaths in 1918 pandemic actually resulted from pneumonia. BTW, my grandmother on my mom's side died in the 1918 epidemic. My mom was just 2 at the time. My grandmother was the only one in the immediate family who died. That means that the other 4 family members survived.
Civilization is the progress toward a society of privacy. The savage's whole existence is public, ruled by the laws of the tribe. Civilization is the process of setting man free from men. - Ayn Rand
Re points
April 30, 2009 - 16:01 ET by slickwillie2001Good question, but can't be better answered than 'a significant percentage'. In 1918 they weren't even sure that it was influenza. Some then thought it might have been black death (bubonic plague), because of some of the symptoms (deep blue cyanosis) and speed at which it killed. After it was confirmed in 1995 that it was influenza, and it was sequenced, some suggested the opposite, that some of the other 'plagues' in history might have in fact been influenza.
Rate of infection in 1918 was about 1/3 of the whole world, and mortality was around 1-5%. Typical flu season mortality is less than 0.1% with a much lower infection rate.
My granny lived through it as a young girl and she is still up and around today.
Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919
April 30, 2009 - 21:03 ET by stratmanMost died from complication of pneumonia:
A superb paper on the pandemic can be found here. Other superb resources can be found here.
Of possible interest:
Now for some related thoughts. Tamiflu is one of the two antivirals recommended for use in Swine Flu cases. Interestingly, Tamiflu was deemed to have high rates ineffectivity to H1N1 virus (resistance to the med) by WHO. Sales of the other antiviral, Relenza spiked since the November 2008 report. WHO has reported that BOTH Tamiflu and Relenza are effective with the H1N1 Mexican Swine Flu virus, though. Did Tamiflu luck out or what?
Will Mexican Swine Flu be good for sales of antivirals? So far the answer is a qualified yes.
And just what of the antiviral stockpiles of the US Government? IIRC, Homeland Security Napolean-tano released 12Million doses of Tamiflu, said to be about 25% of the stockpile. While this will help pharmaceutical manufacturers bottom line in replacing this, the number of doses will treat about 1.2 Million people only since either treatment or prophylaxis requires 10 pills per person.
To put this in perspective, 20+ Million (out of 105 Million total population) were sickened in America during the 1918-1919 pandemic. There are not enough doses of antivirals to go around in the worst case scenario, even considering how quickly that virus killed its host (as little as 1-2 days after a 2 day incubation). And the whole world will be beg, borrow and stealing available doses.
And if dying from influenza weren't bad enough, All these antiviral medication doses are an "environmental hazard"! I swear, those Greenies are a buzzkill when the world is trying to get its influenza on.
Report that Mexican Swine
May 1, 2009 - 00:21 ET by stratmanReport that Mexican Swine Flu virus lacks genetic makeup to be more virulent/lethal virus.
Maybe the recent research of University of Wisconsin-Madison virologists Yoshihiro Kawaoka and Tokiko Watanabe I spoke of in the previous post paid off quickly, allowing scientists to determine lethal potential of the current H1N1 virus rapidly.
For Science, I give this a Paris Hilton "That's hot".
Since we can no longer
April 30, 2009 - 20:14 ET by MassConservativeSince we can no longer refer to it as Swine Flu we will need a new name. I am thinking the "hope and change" flu.
- it starts with a single person and spreads rapidly
- before you can stop it you are sick to your stomach
- if you do nothing to deal with it once infected it is likely to kill you
2012 RNC campaign slogan - "Carter got his 2nd term, NOW can we move on?"