Forbes Writer Warns of $20 Gas; Envisions a Utopia Nearly Without Cars

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Imagine the post-oil apocalypse, with modern American society heading into a direction with no Disney vacations, no airlines - a world devoid of one-stop convenient big retailers. Sounds like a desolate place, but that's an ideal society according to Forbes magazine Christopher Steiner.

Steiner appeared on NBC's July 24 "Today" and described a world with gas headed to $20 a gallon, but according to him it wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

"Well, it's important to understand that $20 per gallon, those types of figures, those are a couple decades away," Steiner said. "But what's important to understand is that we are running out of oil. Over the next 30 years, you're talking about another 2 billion people entering the globe living American-style lives. Right now there's only a billion of those people on the globe and those people are going to want oil. And so our supply is going to slowly go down and demand's going to go up."

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Steiner explained there's going to be short-term pain at first but said that people would be better off with his vision - lower obesity and less of a reason to travel, as such as going on vacation.

"The airlines, most of them, the way we know them now, are going to go out of business," Steiner continued. "I mean, they're very unstable organizations as it is. Eight dollars is really going to be the change for the paradigm of American travel."

Next would come the death of "big-box" retailers as such as Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) - with gas at $14 a gallon.

"Wal-Mart's got 6,000 suppliers, 80 percent of them are in China," Steiner said. "They ship this stuff over. They disseminate it across the country with 7,000 trucks to 4,000 different stores. It's a network built on gasoline. Without cheap oil, it doesn't work."

And according to Steiner - that's not a bad thing - that's utopia because people will be forced to subsist locally - on Main Street, without imported goods, walking almost everywhere they go.

"It's going to help out local economies and people are going to still live in small towns, but they're not going to be captive customers to places like Wal-Mart," Steiner continued. "They're going to move back to Main Street. They're going to shop on Main Street. They're going to walk to work. They're going to walk to school. They're going to walk to buy a gallon of milk."

"Today" co-anchor Matt Lauer said the higher price of oil could bring about "positive changes" and asked Steiner what the probability of this ever coming to fruition would be, But Steiner declined to assign a probability.

"Well, it's hard to say," Steiner said. "But what I can say is that the changes in the book that we talk about will have to happen no matter how high gas goes because we have to mitigate how much we use oil. And to do that, these are the types of things we have to do."


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I wonder what the price of

I wonder what the price of Kool-Aid will be...

Duct tape alert!!

Warns of?   You mean "Dreams of"  don't you?

Everyone is going to have a good job, making enough money to support a family within walking distance of his/her home?  

Really?  Where?  Doing what?  How many people can be employed "on Main Street" in those little local shops?

Where are those gallons of milk going to come from?  

Oh, it will all be wonderful....we will live like in the old days...no, like in the 24th century...Star Trek, where we have "replicators" to magically produce everything we want, no need for money, everybody in the shops just gives away the goods (of which there is never a lack).......

<sound of duct tape ripping off roll>

 

 

 

The problem with imagining the future

I recall the Star Trek pilot episode, where Jeffrey Hunter was the captain. In the script, he asked for a report, and a small little slot produced a piece of paper. Magic! To the audiences in 1966, that would have been an amazing feat. And yet, anyone who owns a printer (they now give them away as deal-sweeteners) yawns at the magic.

  • The future won't evolve in a straight line. Some things will stay the same (a peanut butter and jelly sandwich will always look exactly as it does now). But other things will evolve in ways we just can't predict. So why pretend that you know?
  • Let me give an example, which I'll bet many of us share. For five years, I worked from home. Then I switched jobs, and for basic trust reasons, they wanted me to come into an office and do my work there. Commuting, once again, became an ugly reality. I was wasting dozens of hours a month, either sitting in traffic or waiting for a train. And what was I doing in the office that I couldn't be doing at home? Nothing.
  • So why don't we all stay home? Because until now, management depended on an office culture. How can you tell if the work is getting done? It's easy to do that in an office. (1) You walk by a guy's cubicle and see if he's goofing off; (2) You wait to see if a client gets pissed off. Of course, that's mediocre management, but it's reality for most of us.

My point: working from home seems like a slam-dunk evolution, but it isn't going to happen until management adjusts. And then, if management skills ever adjust (no guarantee there), then it will provoke changes elsewhere. By the time the changing is done, who knows what the "working environment" is going to be? And who's going to pay for all that office space (by the square foot) if everyone's working from home?

Predicting the future ... sheesh, what a waste of time ...

These people have a huge

These people have a huge problem. Their world revolves around a few square miles in a densely populated city. They fail to realize there is a whole big world there and most of it is sparsely populated. Most people do not work in high-rises. Most people have farther to go than downstairs and around the corner for all their needs. They really do need to get out more often. You cannot base everyone's lifestyle on a major city model. 

"DumbAssity of Dope"

Changes

When I started in radio 30 years ago, music was played from vinyl records, we recorded audio on analog tape, news networks were just transitioning to satellites from high quality telephone lines, and many stations signed off at midnight because they didn't want to pay the warm body needed to keep them on the air. 

The technology is much different today, most of it computer based.  Many times my airshift is heard hours or even days after I record it into a computer.  Instead of recording five hours of real time music, I do my breaks into audio files which the computer inserts in the appropriate breaks, and I can knock out a 5 hour show in half an hour to an hour.  Music, network and agency commercials, and syndicated programming is ripped from CD or downloaded from the internet.  The station can run unattended.  I can also log into station computers over the internet to see what's going on or make changes.  And my station is available to anyone with a computer and internet service via streaming audio.

No one can accurately predict what the future will look like in detail.  According to Back to the Future II in about 6 years we'll have flying, nuclear powered cars traversing "highways" in the sky and literally fueled by garbage.  But I wouldn't bet the farm on that.

When you put the clowns in charge, don't be surprised when a circus breaks out.

When do I get on TV?

"Wal-Mart's got 6,000 suppliers, 80 percent of them are in China," Steiner said. "They ship this stuff over. They disseminate it across the country with 7,000 trucks to 4,000 different stores. It's a network built on gasoline. Without cheap oil, it doesn't work."

Guys,

  Shipping oil here adds about a penny to the cost of a gallon of gasoline. A PENNY. Oh, JWF is exaggerating. OK. 2 pennies.

 It is called the economy of scale. Those big huge supertankers? They move a lot of oil much cheaper than lots of little ships.

 Again. Again. Again. You think oil, a commodity is going to sky rocket? Invest in oil futures, stocks, whatever and SHUT UP.

Me. I still got all my money wrapped up in beanie babies. They are coming back I tells ya.

Sincerely,

a Veteran of a 1000 psychic wars.

My guess is the armed revolt would kick in at about $8/gal.

This planet is nowhere near running out of oil.

If gas goes above $4/gal, or the inflation adjusted equivalent, it will be due to the actions (or inaction) of government.

-Dave

We've been hearing since

We've been hearing since 1974 that the planet was running out of oil.  By the late 80's and early 90's the planet was supposed to be dry of oil.  Another "truth" proven a lie.

"I dont need to read a newspaper to know the world's been shaved by a drunken barber."

Walter Brennan, The Colonel, Meet John Doe, 1941

Astounding Ignorance

Market economics apparently is a mere inconvenience.  No one need work, we just consume.

Transport alternatives

Big Stores: there will be electric trucks, battery technology will make more breakthroughs, whether charged by so-called 'green' energy or nuclear is immaterial, where there is a demand there will be a supply.

For international travel we may have to go back to coal-fired ocean liners, convert that coal to oil or use nuclear-powered ships.

We will still be able to go to the superstore using electric vehicles. These may be buses, trams or private cars. A superstore is actually more efficient on fuel as it is a one-stop shopping experience as opposed to visiting many shops on main street.

Going to school? Again buses, trams or electric mopeds anybody?

I think the only thing he got right is the fate of the airline industry, unless we find another liquid fuel or means of propulsion for aircraft.

 

..."unless we find another

..."unless we find another liquid fuel or means of propulsion for aircraft..."

 The USAF and Boeing are already looking at biofuels. 

Saying "local shops on Main

Saying "local shops on Main Street" is a ruse.

When this guy and his co-conspirators say "Walk to work" they mean that we will all be packed into high-rise apartment buildings in the cities, where the businesses are. No more living in the suburbs, those areas will be preserved as "open spaces"...preserved for what, God only knows.

That's what drives these guys nuts: the fact that people are destroying beautiful grassland to build houses!  So of course they dream of a day when we are all packed like sardines in the cities, and there is plenty of  open space.  Not to use, but to "preserve"

-->MB

The other "ruse" that was left out of the story is "population control"- and we all know how progressives plan to carry that out...

My thoughts exactly

Our "Small Towns" will be a cluster of hi-rises w/ a government subsistence center, medical life to cost analysis facility and an approved attire center (Mao jackets, Burkas or overalls). Elevators will be for "Officials" use only to ensure fitness and save energy. Screw up and you end up assigned to a penthouse unit. 

Too close for lights, I'm switching to horn.

mb--

That's what I was thinking...this guy most likely lives in NYC where you can walk to just about anything you need.  Either he thinks we're all going to live like that or else he wants us to go the way of the Amish.

Re Utopia

Imagine a world where every country has nutball environmentalists as powerful and successful as ours.

We need to give thanks every day that there are countries that are willing to make the most of their natural resources that enable our standard of living.

I't's madness slick, pure

I't's madness slick, pure madness.

I'n done being infuriated, I'll still fight the good fight, but I'm not wasting energy anymore.

People either wake up...or they don't.

Doubling down on stupid is not a particularly good idea. ~Andrew Breitbart

jobs?

i'm hoping to get a job whith spacely sprockets or cogswell cogs.  "there is nothing wrong with being a white, conservative, man!" - powhitemale 

Really? Forbes? Not for

Really? Forbes? Not for long.

Running out of oil?

See what 20/20 says:

http://www.youtube.c...

If you go back to 1920, you can find the "we are running out of oil" headlines as shown in the link.  What we are running out of is sense of our politicians to go after OUR oil. 

"What experience and history teach is
this - that people and governments never have learned anything from history,
or acted on principles deduced from it."


G. W. F. Hegel

Worlds to come ...

I wonder who will build and maintain the 8 foot thick walls people like Mr. Steiner and the other elites will need to surround their gated communities where they'll continue to enjoy the "good life" in security, peace, and quiet.

How will they get to keep their elevated positions of authority? Will Democracy be abolished?

Who will taxi them to and from the airports between globetrotting trips, produce the toys and luxuries they will no doubt expect, tend to their needs and desires?

It sounds like a world where 99.9% of the population will be expected to subsist on the bare minimum while the overlords live in a nervous precarious luxury, making sure the rest of us share whatever we're permitted to produce.

Sounds like a recipe for trouble, if you ask me.

metaphorsbwithu

"overlords live in a nervous precarious luxury"

USSR II?

Welcome to comrade Obama's two-tiered Amerika

Rather reminiscent of another 20th Century entity that got its start around, say, 1917?

-Dave

Thank you, comrade editor...

Sigh!

Liberal Solution worse than Problem every time

A few years ago the Chinese were riding bicycles and Americans were driving SUV's.

Democrats declared war on SUV's and stopped all drilling to punish the American Citizen for not listening to them.

Thanks to the Democrats we will be riding bicycles and the Chinese are driving SUV's.

Democrat and Liberal 'Solutions' always, 100% of the time worse than the problem.

*Keep electing Democrats for $20 a gallon gas.

Obama on Bicycles and Walking

Reform Federal Transportation Funding:

As president, Barack Obama will re-evaluate the transportation funding process to ensure that smart growth considerations are taken into account.

Obama will build upon his efforts in the Senate to ensure that more Metropolitan Planning Organizations create policies to incentivize greater BICYCLE and pedestrian usage of roads and sidewalks, and he will also re-commit federal resources to public mass transportation projects across the country."

From Barack Obama's 46 page booklet on 'Obama Change' 2008.

tired of liberal lies Boy

tired of liberal lies

Boy this stuff never gets old, someone is always recycling the end is near crap.  I don't see the box stores going anywhere as the cost of items in mom and pop grocery stores and small apliance stores will also be higher due to increased cost of gas and due to their inability to buy in bulk or negotiate low prices like Walmart can they will STILL not be able to compete.  I grew up in a small town where people still drive to Main St. I lived 2miles away. The mall was only 5 miles away so I don't see the mall or box stores going anywhere as we will still need those few extra pennies to buy the other expensive stuff like food which will still have to be shipped in.  Since cost of living payroll increases are tied to cost of living expenses such as food and gas so I don't see our ability to afford expensive gas being the problem henny penny foresees.  Forty five years ago my dad earned $105 a week, could pay his morgage and support a wife and 4 kids and gas was $.28 a gallon.  Also the rising of gas prices past $5-$6 bucks a gallon will make the drilling for shale oil profitable and per the 20/20 piece linked that will give us a new supply of oil that will satisfy the world's demand for at least the next 100 years and that new supply will stabilize the price well below $20 a gallon, nearer to $8 a gallon. That a Forbes writer doesn't grasp such basic economics 101 is depressing.

leave it to nbc

to dredge up someone that fits in with the obama whacko's,general electric,hansen and gore followers. this kid probably wasn't even around to remember when a gallon of gas was under a buck, but he can spout these wild estimates of what will be in "a few decades".

It's people!

Soylent Green is people!!!

Ignorant of History

Man's History can be traced as a progression in the use and control of ever increasing amounts of energy.  From the discovery of fire, to the early use of wind and water power, through the more sophisticated burning of more compact carbon sources such as peat, coal, and eventually oil, to present day rudimentary solar panels and ultimately to the very splitting of the atom.  It's a progression, not a regression.

We can legislate and litigate the United States back to a late 19th century society if we want, but we won't last for long, as the rest of the world pursues newer and more powerful sources of power. 

"I've sentenced boys younger then you to the gas chamber.  Didn't want to do it, but I felt I owed it to them."  Judge Smails 

uh oh, yawn or rotfbmalfo

I'll drag it back, "Oil is not a fossil fuel."

http://www.canadafre...

Wow! Think of the savings if we drill offshore!

Imagine the prices dropping from $20 to $5 per gallon (or less). 

People will be able to buy their own health insurance with the money they save if they use a tankful  of gas each week. Cheaper home heating oil will add to the savings.

 Drill here, drill now. Buy health insurance. 

What has happened to Forbes?

Even as a young lad of 30, I used to look  forward to my issue of the magazine. It had interesting profiles of various businesses, etc. Malcom Forbes had a sensible essay at the back of each issue. Steve makes sense when he is on television, but is he paying attention to what is going on with his namesake? He needs to fire this idiot.

We're STILL running out of oil?

Excuse me, Mr.  Steiner, But I heard that we were going to run out of oil in thirty years, over thirty years ago!  I remember the predictions of wars, chaos, and just about everything you're predicting, OVER THIRTY YEARS AGO!  So, what changed to add another thirty years to that prediction?  Oh, that's right, we DIDN'T run out of oil as predicted.  So, Mr. Steiner, if that 30 year prediction was wrong over 30 years ago, why should I believe the same prediction is correct today?

The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States.
The US Constitution

Unless you're a fetus.
The US Supreme Court

"American society heading

"American society heading into a direction with no Disney vacations,"

They'd never allow that.  Think of all the gays in Central Florida that wouldn't have jobs!

Where do these jerks come from?  He's talking about conditions more primitive than the Middle Ages!  Even then they had imported goods in Europe from as far away as China.

"They're going to walk to buy a gallon of milk."

Ever hear of a "milk man", numb nuts?

One of the 34% who thinks George W. Bush was a great President. One of the 61% who wants to bring back the stock and pillory (yep...approval for Congress now at 39%...do you believe that!?).

"utopia without cars"

Right, except for those limos the elites need to take them everywhere their tiny hearts desire.  Lying, hypocrites....they just want to guarantee that THEY will have the resources THEY want and we will just have to follow their enviro laws.  Disgusting. 

 

"The preservation of the sacred faith of liberty & the destiny of the republican model of gov't. are justly considered deeply...finally, staked on the experiment entrusted to the American people."G. Washington's 1st inaugural address

          Well,

          Well, doesn't he paint a rosy picture. Rosy, but totaly insane. He would have US riding horse drawn buggies. Unfortunatly, the counties like Iran & N. Korea will still have oil. WE have oil. More than WE need. Just drill for it. Or, just squeeze it out of the dumbasses like Steiner.

Anyone seen Witness?

I suggest Mr Steiner spends a month living with the Amish. Don't forget to turn in your IPhone and your car keys at the gate, please.

Living, working, and driving where you want is called being free

Did you ever look at how BLM locks up land in a checker board pattern so you are land locked?

Libs in the big citys like high gas but never think of the people that have to buy it to keep the city going.  They have "meopia" 

 

Authority isn't truth, truth is authority

"Les Moore" 

I just love stupid predictions.

Before digital cameras, my brother used to talk about people who were predicting the inevitable depletion of all silver because camera photography was going to consume it all. Then we got digital cameras and that idea kind of died.