It's not often that meteorology intersects with geopolitics - but Europe could be in store for another Cold War, literally.
Accuweather.com's chief long-range and hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi observed that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's recent cut of gas flows to Europe via Ukraine may have been done so in anticipation of a global cooling cycle on the Jan. 6 "Glenn Beck Show" radio program. Bastardi has a solid reputation among Wall Street traders for understanding weather's impact on energy commodities.
"The thing I want to bring up here - very interesting - most of the solar cycle studies that we know about and that guys like me read have come out of the Russian scientists," Bastardi said. "But when Glasnost developed, the Russian scientists, a lot of their ideas on the coming cool period that a lot of us believe is going to occur - ice, rather than fire is the big problem down the road here 2030, 2040, and the reversing cyclical cycles of the ocean - it came out of the East."
According to Bastardi - Putin is relying on the data from the Russian scientists and wants to bring some European nations to their knees by exploiting their reliance on natural gas when the weather is at its coldest.
"Now my theory - something that I put out and it's something that's not something that people want to hear is that Putin knows what is going to happen - or he believes the same way I do about the overall climate pattern. So, if you control the pipeline into Europe, you literally can control Europe without firing a shot - if you control the energy."
Bastardi cited former President Ronald Reagan's 1982 Cold War-era staunch resistance to a then-$10 billion pipeline that was proposed to deliver natural gas 3,500 miles from Siberia to the heart of Western Europe, as a July 12, 1982 Time magazine article pointed out. Reagan's stance was criticized by Western Europe Cold War allies and was said to be "riding roughshod over Western Europe's economies," by Time.
Bastardi also noted Russia's invasion of Georgia in August 2008 was evidence of Putin's willingness to use energy as a strategic tactic, since the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, located in Georgia, transports about a million barrels of oil a day from the Caspian Sea through Georgia to ports in Turkey - and then throughout Europe.
"That is why Reagan was so dead set against the Europeans looking east for their energy," Bastardi said. "And now we're seeing it. I believe the invasion of Georgia was nothing more than saying, ‘Hey I can take that pipeline whenever I want' and he shut the gas off to the Ukraine when it got brutally cold."
In a follow-up interview with the Business & Media Institute, Bastardi explained that a lot of Putin's personality traits are at play here - that he is using intelligence, going back to his days as at the KGB.
"The weather's most certainly involved in this," Bastardi said. "If look at what those Russian scientists, where a lot of these studies on it getting cold come from - you can see that, what makes you think that Putin doesn't have some knowledge of that? Here's the head of the KGB - and forever what you want to say, I'm sure he's privy to the same kind of information the head of the CIA is privy to here about studies and what people are thinking on a scientific nature."
And according to Bastardi, Putin's use of the flow of energy into Europe is just one of the weapons in his arsenal of tactics that he, as the head of Russia, has perfected using - comparing him to a wrestler with a perfected move.
"He's definitely a type-A alpha male and we can both agree on that," Bastardi said. "I mean look at him and he is more likely to use weapons - and I use weapons in terms of for instance a wrestler - a single-leg take down is a weapon. If you perfect it, you can use it the entire match. He's more likely in the art of war to use what he knows how to use, even if it's only two or three things than try to go use something he doesn't know how to use or try to create something - that's a waste of time to use it."
It's not a personality fault Bastardi contended on Beck's program - but just what he considers proper for his country.
"And so, there are a couple of things that line up here that indicate the guy is trying act on behalf of his country and what he believes his country should be," Bastardi said. "And I believe that he wants to use nature, rather than change nature and that may be what's going on over here."




















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Impressions
January 7, 2009 - 11:24 ET by jaywlI have always thought Bastardi was more than a weatherman trying to become the people's scientist by hyping the latest storm into the worst ever or making a theory into an extinction event. This confirms my impressions. Thanks to him for a level headed analysis connecting his area of expertise with events we all should be concerned with.
Connection
January 7, 2009 - 11:34 ET by nofateLooks like Putin made the connection a long time ago. When will our guys do the same? Drilling, nuclear, etc. They now have "backyard" nuclear reactors that can be buried underground and do not make waste useable by terrorists. Will we see these anytime soon??? My only problem with this is that I can't buy stock in it, they aren't public! I'd be willing to bet there are a lot of countries that will be more than willing to use this technology, but not us. Noooo! And get this: It was developed at Los Alamos labs. Surprise! The U.S.- saving ourselves for the rest of the world to eat.
Grrrrrrr.
"The future is not set. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves."
michaelyon-online.com
And the Band Plays On
January 7, 2009 - 11:27 ET by nofateI saw this last night and PM'd Noel about it, but it looks like you guys were already on the case. And here we sit sit with a bunch of clueless- oops!- I mean brilliant international policy analysts, unable to make the proper moves. I am a lousy chess player, but even I can see where this is headed. Putin must be belly laughing every time one of our wizards comes out with a new policy geared to costing us our energy independence. I'd be willing to make a long term bet that China is in this mix too. Don't see them itching to jump on the Kyoto bandwagon. God Bless us, 'cause we ain't helping ourselves.
"The future is not set. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves."
michaelyon-online.com
Well what can I say
January 7, 2009 - 11:40 ET by DelsaJoe is RIGHT or CORRECT!
Reagan was spot on but before him was R Nixon who in his book, "The Real War" spoke of the "jugular" of the world.
In his book he said "The Real War" would be over who controled IT, the life line, "the jugular", aka the OIL, would control the world!
Nixon was speaking about OIL and he predicted our current situation. Like it or not, the future, where we are now, is something he predicted.
OIL turns the wheels and runs the world's societies.
Windmills and solar panels do NOT!
Read President Nixon's book and then take a look at what Joe the weather guy says and you will have the picture.
Note Reagan's prescience in 1982, and the bias in TIME Magazine
January 7, 2009 - 11:31 ET by DanSchwartzArticle author Jeff Poor's citation of the July 1982 TIME article Trouble in the Pipeline both shows how prescient President Reagan was in 1982 .AND. how biased writers Frederick Painton, Lawrence Malkin and Gisela Bolt are, too.
This passage from page 3 is golden for us NewsBusters:
Looks like a certain Illinois Senator on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee got it all wrong, too...
Dan Schwartz
Sayreville, NJ
Please visit my Home Page at http://users.snip.net/~joe/default.htm
I was at an event yesterday...
January 7, 2009 - 11:45 ET by Jeff Poor... with Tony Blankley, who worked for Reagan. He made the same point about the pipeline. I'm a little new to the movement, but no one made this connection in 2006 the first time Putin pulled these shenanigans.
Mini Ice Age Hits Alaska...
January 7, 2009 - 11:53 ET by DanSchwartzAnchorage Daily News:
Anchorage energy use hits all-time high
Bastardi is a class act
January 7, 2009 - 12:41 ET by NL207Bastardi is a class act and he knows meteorology like few other people do. It should come as no surprise to the rest of you that he and one of his collegues at AccuWeather, Joe Sobel, are very strong global warming skeptics.
This brings me to whjat I see as the most salient point of Jeff Poor's article: Putin is acting on the advice of his scientists in Russia. Obama plans to act on the advice of the likes of Drs. James Hansen and Gavin Schmidt here in America. It is clear the Russian climatologists do not share the same view of climate science as the Global Warming Alarmists do. So much for the idea of a broad scientific consesus on the topic as promoted by Gore and others. Current events favor the Russian interpretation of the data. This implies the Alarmists are wrong.
Obama has said he intends to take decisive actions based upon this misinformation, a formula for disaster.
who woulda thunk it?
January 7, 2009 - 17:46 ET by UndercoverConservativethat it would be up to Soviet scientists to provide the information to *save* America from world socialist domination (thru "global warming" hysteria) instead of helping dominate it?
"to call an illegal immigrant an "undocumented alien" is the same as calling a streetcorner drug dealer an "unlicensed pharmacist".
"You spend your money anyway you want and respect other's rights to do the same"
But global warming HAS TO BE TRUE....
January 7, 2009 - 13:07 ET by xfastIt was in the 30's on Monday here in Dallas, and now today it is supposed to be 70! I mean, Antartica is going to be gone by next week at this rate!
Millions of Brits to get weather pay-outs
January 7, 2009 - 13:51 ET by DanSchwartzMillions [in UK] to get weather pay-outs
Russian Scientists have been warning of Global Cooling
January 7, 2009 - 21:38 ET by PopularTech2006 - Earth in for another "ice age" in mid-century - scientist (RIA Novosti, February 6, 2006)
2006 - Russian Scientist Issues Global Cooling Warning (RIA Novosti, August 25, 2006)
2008 - A cold spell soon to replace global warming (RIA Novosti, January 3, 2008)
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is Not Pollution