Recession stories have a lot in common with global warming stories - there are a lot of them and you hear only one side. And like global warming, recession is the subject of a Newsweek cover story, appearing on the front of the magazine's February 4 issue.
The story, "The U.S. Economy Faces the Guillotine," written by Daniel Gross, takes a one-sided gloomy approach to reporting on the U.S. economy. It worked on the assumption a recession is inevitable and may have even already started.
"The Great Global Market Freak-Out of 2008 has everyone asking whether the United States - already on the road to recession - is entering into a protracted period of economic trouble where jobs will be slashed, prices will continue to rise and the dollar will keep falling; and if so, whether the declining U.S. economy will pull the rest of the world down with it," Gross wrote. "A recession is defined as a widespread contraction in economic activity lasting more than a few months, and because of the lag in financial data, recessions typically aren't officially declared until long after they start. In short, the United States could already be in one."
What Gross completely ignored it the possibility the economy will be fine and stave off a recession. There are prominent economists who aren't completely convinced that the United States is "on the road to recession," as Gross wrote.
"Models based on recent monetary and tax policy suggest real GDP will grow at a 3% to 3.5% rate in 2008, while the probability of recession this year is 10%," wrote Brian Wesbury, an economist for First Trust Advisors, L.P., in the January 28 Wall Street Journal. "This was true before recent rate cuts and stimulus packages. Now that the Fed has cut interest rates by 175 basis points, the odds of a huge surge in growth later in 2008 have grown. The biggest threat to the economy is still inflation, not recession."
Wesbury, who also appeared on CNBC's January 28 "The Call." He refuted the idea housing woes will send the U.S. economy because the housing market is only 4.5 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product.
"To put that into comparison, exports are 12 percent of GDP," Wesbury said. "Yes, housing is weak, but exports are booming. They're 14 percent from last year. That's offsetting the pain from housing."
Fortunately, Gross's story had one bright spot. It won't be 1929 all over again.
"That doesn't mean the world is facing the Great Depression II - the world's economies are radically different than they were fourscore years ago, when our forefathers were forced to beg for dimes," Gross wrote.
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News of Recession must be waining!
January 29, 2008 - 10:22 ET by PawpawNThe Excite page headlines for today:
Business News - AP
Jan 29, 10:10 am ET
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Wall Street Mixed on Rate Cut Hopes
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Countrywide Posts $422 Million 4Q Loss
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Durable Goods Orders Rise by 5.2 Percent
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Dow Chemical 4Q Profit Beats Estimates
Technology News - Associated Press
Jan 29, 10:04 am ET
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EBay Lowers Listing Fees
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EMC 4Q Profit Rises 35 Percent
Guess the curse of Sports Illustrated cover story has moved over to Newsweek, or should we say NewsWEAK!
THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!!!
January 29, 2008 - 10:23 ET by TinianOkay, it's for the doom and gloom NewsBusters scheißehaus economists to spout off with their gloom and doom predictions!
Celebrate!!!! Recession!!!
January 29, 2008 - 10:34 ET by TaserCatYes, a recession!!! Something else for the MSM, and the Bush-haters, to blame him for!
They're doing their best to scare us into one. But as we well know by now, the MSM Libs are almost always wrong!
Anyone else notice that as the situation in Iraq improved...
January 29, 2008 - 10:31 ET by krendlerAnyone else notice that as the situation in Iraq improved over the past year and the presidential campaign went into full swing, the standard top story (e.g., "This is Bush's Vietnam, We're officilaly going to declare this a Civil War") was gradually replaced with "Don't forget a recession is coming, folks / What an economic mess we're in!". It's to the point now that Iraq is barely mentioned anymore, unless it's in reference to that "so called" surge (that people like Hillary, Edwards and Obama were 100% wrong about - Speaking of that, it's funny how nobody in the MSM has slammed Obama and Clinton about their utterly laughable and preposterous statements where they credit the Dems in congress for the past year's successes in Iraq. Can't wait to see McCain or Romney dump that over their head during the general election, along with Obama's "all we're doing in Afghanistan is air-raiding villages and killing civilians.". Yeah, we want you, Barack, as our commander in chief).
Facts don't matter
January 29, 2008 - 10:36 ET by mattmIt's an election year and a Republican is in the White House...there will be a recession whether there's a recession or not.
No kidding.
January 29, 2008 - 10:51 ET by Dave in TexasI can just see some of the news reports around September and October. "Although there was technically no recession, many Americans say they feel like there's a recession. And isn't that just as bad?"
I fear...
January 29, 2008 - 11:37 ET by coffee260this.
Take a snap shot of the United States as it stands today. Change absolutely nothing. NOTHING!!! Elect a democrat as president and all of the sudden: WHAM-O! Every thing's great. And here's how it works.
The day a democrat is inaugurated the media will suddenly change the tone in which they report the news. Don't believe me? Fine. Keep reading anyway.
The US economy is strong and has been strong for the past 5 years. 5% unemployment... 3.9% growth last quarter... Stock markets are at or close to an all time high and we are not in a recession. Let's face it, these aren't reported in the MSM as positives. In fact, they're ignored. It's as if these stats are put on a shelf only too be used at a later date. Which brings me to Election 2008.
What will the media do if a democrat is elected? They will dust off the aforementioned stats, lead every newscast with some form of this great news and let their viewers know that under a democrat president things are finally looking up.
Wait! Those are our stats. What give you the right to claim them as your own? Here's a taste of what to look forward to from your "objective" nightly news anchor.
Take a closer look at what I just wrote. That same glowing report can and should be the lead on every mainstream network newscast. In fact, the tone and optimism of this style of report, something you will see a lot of if a democrat is elected, could have been the lead story in countless newscasts over the past 5 years. Sadly, the optimism is reserved for the other party.
The same thing will be done in every other area America faces today. The war on terror which includes Iraq. Our standing in the world. And anything else you can think of. The issues won't change. Only the tone of the news coverage will. Bank on it...
"A recession is defined as
January 29, 2008 - 11:37 ET by robert108"A recession is defined as a widespread contraction in economic
activity lasting more than a few months, and because of the lag in
financial data, recessions typically aren't officially declared until
long after they start. In short, the United States could already be in
one."
This is a blatant lie. A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and we haven't yet had one month of negative growth.
Like the global warming claim, this is pure propaganda.
I have to ask the question: "If the way the Dems want to do things is so great, why do they have to lie about it?"
absolutely true
January 29, 2008 - 12:17 ET by mbuelI've been saying this for the past four months to everyone around me. There IS no recession, and won't be. The fear and propaganda is completely media driven. The stock market "collapse" is also being driven by media fears. The stock market is a complex system driven by investors all around the world. If they read "Recession fears grow" they will not invest even though exports are up, profits are up, etc etc.
One of the definate proofs that recession is not around is the entertainment industry, particularly the video game industry. The Xbox 360 outsold the wii (an incredible feat in itself) in the month of december. If people were tight on money, they would not blow 300 - 400 dollars on video game hardware. And that's without the incredible software sales each system saw in december (and will most likely see this month as well!) That's not to mention the incredible sales Blu ray saw, that the theaters saw, etc etc.
But yet... the media (as Michael Crichton aptly put in his great book "State of Fear") has to sell Fear. The only thing we should fear is the industrial-media-government complex. They push a fear and those in power use it to their advantage. To punish us for made up recessions, made up sins of global warming, etc. The sooner people stop buying into these fears, the sooner they lose all their power.
Recession only happens when a...
January 29, 2008 - 12:01 ET by ShaftBigScoreElephant is in the White House. Jackasses think from the paradigm of Centralized planning. Every one of their solutions has Centralized Government at the top of the list. Their measure of success is based upon the performance of the Centralized Government's control over the slaves..oops I mean the citizens.
The Jackasses must place fear into the slaves, then provide their Centralized Governement medicine to make the slaves better. Over time the slaves wake up to find they are in deeper bondage. My prediction that if a Jackass is elected to the White House, they will provide the dose of meds that the slaves want; more handouts. At that point, we will NEVER hear the "r" word for 4 years.
I favor the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and it must be enforced at gunpoint if necessary. President Ronald Reagan