Two days after the U.S. Commerce Department reported an astounding 3.9 percent growth in gross domestic product, the U.S. Labor Department comes in with job data that exceeded analyst’s expectations.
The Labor Department reported a gain of 166,000 jobs in October and an unemployment rate that held steady at 4.7 percent for the second month in a row.
The night before the numbers were released, both the November 1 “NBC Nightly News” and “CBS Evening News” told viewers the possibility of an economic downturn hinged on these numbers.
“[O]n top of that, there are rising concerns about the U.S. economy,” CNBC’s Erin Burnett said on the November 1 “Nightly News.” “Investors are worried about us, American consumers. Energy prices are surging, housing prices are falling, recession is an increasing risk. And Brian, that is why tomorrow morning’s report on how many Americans have jobs will be one of the most important economic headlines in quite some time.”
CBS correspondent Anthony Mason even warned if lower than expected jobs numbers were reported, we would really see how bad the housing woes impacted the U.S. economy.
“[I]t’s a very nervous market, and it could move sharply again tomorrow, Katie, when unemployment numbers come out, and we’ll get a sense of whether they’re infecting –whether housing is infecting the rest of the economy,” Mason said on the November 1 “CBS Evening News.”
But, as it turned out – the job numbers doubled predictions. So with the sound job numbers, does that means the fears of a recession resulting from housing troubles and energy prices are lessened? An initial report from Wall Street suggested as much.
“[E]verybody’s talking about the jobs report,” CNBC Business Reporter Bob Pisani said from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” November 2. “Look, they got what they wanted. Twice the [job number] estimates here. The recession fears fading a little bit.”
But I doubt the fear of recession will be fading from the evening news.
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I think we are all rooting
November 2, 2007 - 16:07 ET by dscottI think we are all rooting for the economy to keep chugging along, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't keep a wary eye on the stats. I believe the unemployment stats will not be a timely indicator of the economy as in past recessions given the numbers of illegals working jobs that Americans should be working. As ICE and the States get their act together in demanding employers properly verify the SS # of applicants, illegals will begin to self deport in droves either to Canada or Mexico. Because of this I believe the unemployment stats will not reflect properly the new scenerio of Americans taking back jobs illegals were working.
I'm watching the more important precurser numbers like gasoline consumption. Any significant reduction below the seasonal variations will indicate people's activities with descretionary spending like shopping, restaurants, movies, vacations, etc. Any fast run up of gasoline prices will act to sharply reduce non work commuting driving. Gradual run ups in gasoline is in my opinion gives time for people to adjust equally as gradually to accepting the higher price without knee jerk reacting by stopping other activities.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html#demand watch the chart at the bottom of the page, "US Gasoline Demand"
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_epm0f_vpp_mbblpd_w.htm
http://www.wtrg.com/ oil industry news.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. dscott's corollary: The line between malice and stupidity is called depraved indifference.
" I believe the
November 2, 2007 - 16:11 ET by Sonny Lykos" I believe the unemployment stats will not be a timely indicator of the economy as in past recessions given the numbers of illegals working jobs that Americans should be working. "
Until we resolve the illegal immigrant situation, those "numbers" will mean nothing because all of the illegals that are working will skew the numbers. If anything, the number of job gains should be increased substantially to include them in the total.
Numbers
November 2, 2007 - 16:37 ET by Jerry MackI have had a problem with the term "jobs that Americans want do". The way I look at it is that if you need money and are physically capable, that job does not exist. I realize that many companies hire the illegals because they can pay them much less. In my neighborhood there were at least 30 houses that had major remodeling. +- 90% of the workers were illegals. From what info that I can gather it was the same all over the state. Now that almost everyone that wants to do remodeling has done it, I wonder where they all went.
Absolutely true, if we
November 2, 2007 - 16:44 ET by dscottAbsolutely true, if we consider that of the 12 million or so illegals maybe half of them are working jobs, so that's about 6 million at the high end. This points out something completely lost on the MSM, the tax cuts didn't just create 6 million new jobs since 2003 but more like 12 million jobs. Now that those jobs are camoflagued by an illegal worker, they, loosing their jobs will be equally hidden, so that if and when employers shed jobs to cut expenses, the illegals will be the first to go. Under this scenerio, 6 million people could potentially loose their jobs but the unemployment stats would never reflect it. This may be the first recession in history where legal workers didn't loose their jobs from an economic downturn. This does not bode well for Mexico, I rather suspect right now that they are privately wishing the US had put up that fence to keep Mexicans from coming back to Mexico.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. dscott's corollary: The line between malice and stupidity is called depraved indifference.
Good news
November 2, 2007 - 16:22 ET by Jerry MackSince there is so little bad news coming from Iraq the libs have moved to the economy. Recession around the corner, housing market will destroy the country, retail sales will be down........ They will not give George Bush credit for anything.
They will not give George Bush credit for anything.
November 2, 2007 - 17:15 ET by mattmNot even good intentions...
Jerry, I live in Naples, FL
November 2, 2007 - 23:49 ET by Sonny LykosJerry, I live in Naples, FL and am a semi-retired remodeler. From talking to many remodels, builders, and specialty contractors over our country via 3 contractor forums, they all say that it's hard for them to compete legitimately due to the huge number of other contractors whose main employee base are illegals. It's the same here in FL
Between that and the building bust around the country, I imagine many, many illegals are starving or heading back to Mexico, or who knows what. And the "what" is because Mexican or not, starving people will do things that aren't so legal. So I expect the crime rate to increase too. Of course, the MSM will probably not publicize that info - the who, why and where. Other than to make them the victims with things like "Undocumented workers are being driven to......"