The Associated Press cannot, by any stretch of the imagination, be considered pro-gun or the propaganda arm of the "gun lobby." For example, in 2006 the AP implied that the NRA was responsible for the increase in violent crime begun in 2004.1
In a recent article, the AP once again to insinuated that machinations by the "gun lobby" to sunset the Clinton gun ban may have resulted in an increased criminal use of "assault weapons"; particularly in their "discussion" of a criminal homicide which occurred last fall:
The Sept. 15 killing was remarkable in that it took place in the most innocent of settings - the fifth birthday of twin boys. But it was unremarkable in that one of the guns brandished was an AK-47-type rifle - a powerful, rapid-fire weapon that has long been used in Third World conflicts but is increasingly being used in American street fights.2
Associate Press based this article on firearm trace data:
Figures from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, obtained by The Associated Press through public records requests, show a marked increase in the number of AK-type weapons traced and entered into the agency's computer database because they had been seized or connected to a crime.3
This is a curious admission by AP, because it runs counter to propaganda from anti-gun organizations. When Congress renewed the Tiahrt Amendment--which restricts gun trace data to police investigations--in 2007, the Brady Campaign declared this would stymie police investigations:
Police leaders from across the nation joined the Brady Campaign in urging Congress to repeal legislation that prevents police and local governments from having access to crime gun trace data that would help cities fight illegal gun trafficking in their communities.4
Josh Horwitz of the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence chided Congress for apparently kowtowing to the NRA:
The Coalition to Stop Gun Violence is deeply disappointed by the action of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees on the "Tiahrt Amendments" to the FY 2008 Commerce, Justice, Science and Related Agencies Appropriations Act. These amendments, which have been added to the appropriations bill by Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-KS) every year since 2003 at the behest of the National Rifle Association, block access to comprehensive information on firearms traced to crime scenes at a time when violent gun crime is on the rise in the United States. Law enforcement can only obtain crime gun trace data in their geographic jurisdiction, and requests must be connected to a specific criminal investigation. This makes it extremely difficult for police to identify broader patterns of firearms trafficking.5
However, Michael J. Sullivan, then acting director of the ATF, had this to say about these allegations:
Let me be clear: neither the congressional language nor ATF rules prohibit the sharing of trace data with law enforcement conducting criminal investigations, or place any restrictions on the sharing of trace data with other jurisdictions once it is in the hands of state or local law enforcement. In fact, multi-jurisdictional trace data is also utilized by ATF and shared with fellow law-enforcement agencies to identify firearm-trafficking trends and leads. Additionally, nothing prohibits ATF from releasing our own reports that analyze trace-data trends that could be used by law enforcement.6
In 2006--under the Tiahrt Amendment--police departments across the country requested 230,760 firearm traces. The ATF notes that these traces fall under two broad criteria:
- 1. "Law enforcement agencies may request firearms traces for any reason, and those reasons are not necessarily reported to the Federal Government."
- 2. "Firearms selected for tracing are not chosen for purposes of determining which types, makes or models of firearms are used for illicit purposes."
In keeping with these criteria, about 10,000 LEO trace requests in 2006 cited no specific reason for the request, and about 20,000 ATF traces were requested simply because the firearm was listed as "found" by law enforcement.7 Considering these broadly inclusive criteria under which the ATF will release trace data, it is hard to see how the Tiahrt Amendment inhibits police investigations.
Having addressed the issue of firearm trace data, the AP then took on trends in certain gun traces during and after the Clinton gun ban years:
Since 1993, the year before the ban took affect, ATF has recorded a more than sevenfold increase in 7.62x39mm guns - which includes the original Russian-made AK-47 and a variety of copycats from around the world. The number of AK-type guns rose from 1,140 in 1993 to 8,547 last year.
Since 2005, the first full year after the ban's expiration, ATF has recorded an 11 percent increase in such tracings.
ATF says the increases in the first half of the 1990s are partly the result of wider usage of its weapons database by local law enforcement agencies. But after that point, the numbers reflect a real increase in tracings of AK-type guns, the agency acknowledged.8 [Emphasis added]
The AK-47 is a fully automatic firearm, capable of firing up to 600 rounds per minute.9 These firearms have been virtually banned from private commerce by the National Firearms Act of 1934. A law-abiding citizen might be able to purchase this type of firearm, but they must go through a lengthy licensing process with the ATF.10 Since there were only 509 machineguns traced in 2006, it is reasonable to assume the AP is mixing machine guns with semi-automatic rifles and/or intends to confuse the reader into thinking that the "assault weapons banned under the Clinton administration are machineguns.
Using the reported AP numbers, there was a 650% increase in traces for the abovementioned firearms between 1993 and 2007; 575% of that occurred during the Clinton ban, with an additional 11% growth 2005-2007. Using AP's trace data as an indicator of the prevalence of such firearms, about 575% of the increase in these traces occurred before the end of the ban. Taking the early 1990s reporting changes into account by cutting the 575% in half, this leaves an estimated 287.5% increase in traces prior to the end of the Clinton ban--an average annual increase of about 32% for the years 1996-2004--while the annual increase averaged less than 4% for the post-ban years of 2005-2007. While this might indicate that smuggling of these firearms slowed down since the ban ended, it assuredly rebuts any claims that renewing the ban will reduce the use of these guns by criminals.
The Associate Press may have started out trying to generate interest in a new ban by blurring the difference between the Clinton ban's cosmetic "assault weapons" and automatic weapons of war, but ends up proving what those who don't subscribe to the illogic touted by the gun banners have been saying all along: Gun control does not deter criminals; it disenfranchises law-abiding citizens.
About the Author
Howard Nemerov is a contributor to the Texas State Rifle Association's TSRA Sportsman and "unofficial" investigative analyst for NRA News. He can be reached at HNemerov [at sign] Netvista.net.
Endnotes
[1] Howard Nemerov, Gun Control: AP Blames NRA for Violent Crime, News Busters, July 1, 2006. http://newsbusters.org/node/6220
2 Associated Press, AK-47-Type Guns Are Turning Up in U.S. More Often, Fox News, March 26, 2008. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,341988,00.html
3 Associated Press, AK-47-Type Guns Are Turning Up in U.S. More Often.
4 Repealing the Tiahrt Restrictions, Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence. http://www.bradycampaign.org/action/tiahrt/?bro_issue=summer&bro_year=2007
5 Josh Horwitz, Reaction to Congressional Action on Tiahrt Amendment, Coalition to Stop Gun Violence, July 13, 2007. http://www.csgv.org/site/c.pmL5JnO7KzE/b.3924845/apps/s/content.asp?ct=4538131
6 Michael J. Sullivan, Setting the record straight about firearms trace data, Scripps News, April 30, 2007. http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/22041
7 Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, Firearms Trace Data. http://www.atf.gov/firearms/trace_data/ This page offers selection for aggregate trace data by state. Since these reports show only the most common reasons a state requested a trace, more "no reason" and "found firearm" requests may exist under "other", of which the ATF reports a total of 35,335.
8 Associated Press, AK-47-Type Guns Are Turning Up in U.S. More Often.
9 AK-47 Assault Rifle, Kalashnikov Guns Russian web site. http://kalashnikov.guns.ru/models/ka50.html
10 National Firearms Act of 1934, Prentice Hall Documents Library. http://cwx.prenhall.com/bookbind/pubbooks/dye4/medialib/docs/firearms.htm















Editor at Large
Comments Policy
Howard, please emphasize...
April 14, 2008 - 10:38 ET by JohnM(in BOLD perhaps) this sentence: "it assuredly rebuts any claims that renewing the ban will reduce the use of these guns by criminals"
The presentation of your argument is technical, and I almost scanned past this point. I think it should have more prominence.
Good suggestion
April 14, 2008 - 12:00 ET by Howard NemerovThat's a good suggestion, which I incorporated. Keep in mind that the reason my articles are "technical" is because the topic of gun control is already replete with baseless rhetoric. This conclusion is baseless without the analysis, rendering it more static among the screaming masses. If you and I are going to change anybody's mind, they must understand; analysis helps this process. Thanks for your input.
"a powerful, rapid-fire
April 14, 2008 - 11:03 ET by Killgrave"a powerful, rapid-fire weapon that has long been used in Third World conflicts but is increasingly being used in American street fights."
The term "Third World" really jumped out at me. This leftest isn't singing off the correct songsheet. When I went to Liberal Arts college they really beat that term out of me. You are supposed to say "Developing Nation", even though most of these clowns can't develop their way out of the Flintstones.
Flintstones? That's funny.
April 14, 2008 - 12:05 ET by Howard NemerovThe reason these "third world" countries cannot develop is because of the corrupt governments which, of course, own all the firearms. (Documented extensively-more of that technical analysis stuff-in my upcoming book Gun Control: Fear or Fact?) But this is another truth the AP is not ready to explore.
Isn't "Thrid World" an
April 14, 2008 - 17:36 ET by red_dragon311Isn't "Thrid World" an actual classification
Because in school I learned ( yes i one time it was possibel to learn in school) the "Fourth World counrties" were classified by the fact the wood was the main sorce of energy and that shocked me
Thrid World countries are not developing... thats why they are Thrid world countries...Second world is developing. First world is developed.
I was a professional twice over - an analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist
more BS by what was left out
April 14, 2008 - 12:01 ET by wizardjr"a marked increase in the number of AK-type weapons"
The AKS and other variants are semi-automatics that are either based on the AK-47 design or similar looking designs, much like the semi-auto variants of the AR-15/M-16. So they are "AK-type" weapons. The US imports and sells hundreds of the AKS variety. More bent numbers and cherry picking. We saw this same data bending when the law was first enacted. They showed film clips of full auto mode AK-47's blasting away while holding an AKS for the news conference. I'd like to know exactly how many full auto AK-47's have been used in crime in America across the last 30 years per capita. I'd bet a good steak dinner that this is more hype than fact.
Apples and Orangutans
April 14, 2008 - 12:18 ET by Howard NemerovYou are correct. My initial analysis of ATF trace summary data shows about 500 true machine guns were traced in 2006 in the U.S. So it is likely the AP is mixing in semi-autos in their count or strictly counting semi-autos which have some cosmetic features of the true AK-47, like pistol grips and 30+ round magazines, whereas true "weapons of war" are full-auto, like the AK-47. The other untold truth is from the ATF:
1) "Law enforcement agencies may request firearms traces for any reason, and those reasons are not necessarily reported to the Federal Government."
2) "Firearms selected for tracing are not chosen for purposes of determining which types, makes or models of firearms are used for illicit purposes."
(See state reports at http://www.atf.gov/firearms/trace_data/ )
To include this point would have required a longer article beyond writer's guidelines for this venue.
To the best of my knowledge, there has only been 1 documented use of a full-auto firearm in crime in the U.S. since the 1934 Firearms Act, which restricted civilian ownership to those who get licensed by the ATF, and the crime was not committed by a licensee. We will be covering the topic in greater depth tonight on NRA News at 10:40 Eastern.
Excellent post! Thank
April 14, 2008 - 13:39 ET by stratmanExcellent post! Thank you.
My limited research has come up with 2 documented uses of legally owned full-auto firearms in a crime (murder) since the 1934 Firearms Act:
"On September 15th, 1988, a 13-year veteran of the Dayton, Ohio police department, Patrolman Roger Waller, then 32, used his fully automatic MAC-11 .380 caliber submachine gun to kill a police informant..."
Brunswick Hills, Ohio doctor Shou Chao Ho killed another physician using his legally owned MAC-11 on September 14, 1992.
Can you corroborate this data, Howard?
Look orward to more of your posts.
RRAM Tough!
What about the Clinton era CA bank robbery/shootout?
April 14, 2008 - 13:43 ET by sarcasmoI'm pretty sure the AK was illegally converted, but the extended shootout where the police had to borrow AR15s from a local gun shop in California to shoot the perps should also count. Also, I'm pretty sure there's a "trace" for every legal NFA transfer, even if there's no allegation of any crime. (And it's good to see Howard posting again!)
JMR
The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.
the police had to borrow AR15s
April 14, 2008 - 14:38 ET by wizardjrI remember that. It was a direct result of converting cops to social services pukes. They were supposed to dial down any seeming confrontationality so they nearly disarmed them completely. For my part they should have M4's or MP5's with grenade lauchers in the trunk ready to go. That Califonicate thing was a total disgrace - not for the cops, but for their politically aligned chiefs and mayor. And... it still pretty much goes on yet today.
Cops have different criteria
April 14, 2008 - 19:11 ET by Howard NemerovPolice are able to purchase fully-auto rifles without having to go through the application process, tax and ATF investigation which can take 6 months before they decide to issue you a license. Also, you must have a pre-1986 machine gun picked out, as the license is for a specific gun. Police may buy brand new machine guns for law enforcement. The machine gun ban does not apply to them, placing them in special category. That is why the LEO shooting is not included, and there appears to be just the one incident where a class 3 licensee committed a crime.
Thank you for the
April 14, 2008 - 22:54 ET by stratmanThank you for the clarification.
It's critical to get the data correct.
RRAM Tough!
"True" machine guns
April 20, 2008 - 03:04 ET by scooby509I checked the National Firearms Act and I just can't accept that you can classify a firearm based on the design of the sear.
A machine gun has these characteristics: 1. it's designed for a support-by-fire role in squad tactics and for suppressive fire in individual tactics. 2. it favors fire superiority over maneuverability 3. although the cyclic rate of fire depends mostly on the size of the round, the weapon is fired in (gunner-)controlled bursts to track ammunition expenditure and prevent overheating 4. it is designed to disperse heat, e.g. fires from the open-bolt, heavy barrel, interchangeable barrel. 5. it can be mounted on vehicles or tripods (crew-served) 6. It may have a built in bipod to fire from the prone, it probably isn't fired from the shoulder. 7. it is generally belt-fed.
Really, the AK-47 and M16 are rifles, not machine guns. Rifles are far more versatile and so they can, if the situation demands it, fill in for the role of machine guns, but that doesn't make them machine guns. And basing it on a single component (the sear) is ludicrous. I can make a .50 cal fire on semi by moving a little metal clip, and I can even give it a safety by jamming a piece of brass behind the trigger, does that make it a rifle?
Lies, damn lies and statistics
April 14, 2008 - 14:37 ET by Carbon SasquatchBeware the linear comparison of percentages based on different basis figures. The 700% over the ban is based on the pre-ban number (1100), but surely the 11% since 2005 is based on the ending number (about 8500.)
This is leaving aside the obvious lumping together of all guns which shoot 7.62x39mm ammunition. I don't doubt the increasing popularity of SKS rifles over the last 15 years, being the poor man's substitute for the AR-15. How do the antigunners get around the fact that these weapons were not covered by the 1994 ban?
How do the antigunners get around the fact
April 14, 2008 - 14:42 ET by wizardjrEasy - just lie your ass off. They do it all the time. I should start keeping score of the times they keep adding zeros to some number until it gets big enough to catch attention. 60,000 dead in Iraq becomes 600,000 killed by America for instance. I hear it's now over a milllion. That's over 500 dead EACH AND EVERY DAY. Not likely. Nor is their phony gun statistics.
A little too erudite?
April 14, 2008 - 19:02 ET by Howard NemerovCS - I think you may be confusing things a bit. Based on the starting number pre-ban, there is a seven-fold increase in the traces of whatever it is AP is writing about. Since 2005, that number has increased 11%. No matter how you calculate, most of the increase occurred during the Clinton gun ban. Also, I look at trends based upon percents most of the time, not raw numbers. This is because percents are a more accurate indicator for trends. If there is one violent crime in a town of 50 people, the rate is higher than if there are 500 violent crimes in a city of 50,000. The small town is therefore more violent.
The guns I think AP is actually writing about are the semi-auto rifles that have some features of true military rifiles, like pistol grips. I base this on the fact that only 509 machine guns were traced in 2006. In that case, the guns AP is writing about are the guns the Clinton ban addressed. Machine guns were banned in 1934, unless you can qualify for a license from the ATF.
What's the deal?
April 16, 2008 - 00:40 ET by cleverpig689% is a meaningless number. In order to figure out how much of the increase in AK47s happened before 2005, you do NOT subtract 11 from 700! You use algebra. Misusing numbers to make your argument sound more weighty is a bad idea when you are talking to an educated audience.
Corrected
April 19, 2008 - 21:05 ET by Howard NemerovThanks for your input. I should never have just used the AP estimate.
it became "rare" and a "status symbol"
April 14, 2008 - 19:35 ET by UndercoverConservativeas soon as it was "banned" a gang member would often sell his now-higher-valued arm for more cash and replace it with something cheaper, while more successful thugs saw it as a status symbol-further glorified by rappers as "the" symbol of street violence, because the only way to get one was thru crime, whether stolen, or imported with illegal drugs. Simply possessing an AK was made a crime, increasing the legendary and "street cred" status of the firearm.
It in no way reduced the demand for these amongst the sh*theads roaming the streets. All it did was make sure that private citizens could not even come close to mounting an effective defense. Or it made the "legal" importation of such hardware to be so expensive that many police departments could not afford such hardware unless they could field a SWAT unit. Which means, small town cops were also totally outgunned.
Anti-gun folks always bleated about "escalation" if cops had better gear. So by that twisted logic, the opposite should have been true...but the social experiment has proven the exact opposite.
Now it's time to not level the playing field, but to put the good guys in a superior state. Police and private citizens need to be better armed than the street trash-it needs to be an *unfair* fight for gangs terrorizing America. Let's try that "social experiment" for a change.
Unless liberals and big government are afraid the experiment would actually produce results that benefit the People...there's no reason *not* to try it.
"to call an illegal immigrant an "undocumented alien" is the same as calling a streetcorner drug dealer an "unlicensed pharmacist".