'Titanic' Bias? NYT Implies U.S. Economy Sinking Into Recession

By Clay Waters (Bio | Archive)
November 27, 2007 - 15:32 ET

As the 2008 election approaches, the New York Times uses the image of a sinking red "RECE$$ION" to communicate a fear that is so far only a phantom menace. Peter Goodman's Sunday Week in Review cover story, "Trying to Guess What Happens Next," displayed plenty of pessimism about the U.S. economy after years of foreign-financed easy money.

But the accompanying graphic communicated even more starkly the feeling the Times no doubt wanted to convey -- a fearful, sinking feeling among U.S. consumers (and November voters). The top half of the page was dominated by white space, with the big red word "RECE$$ION" sinking below the horizon.

Is there a single economist who thinks the U.S. economy, with inflation tamed for now and a low unemployment rate, is currently in recession? Not even Goodman himself goes that far, though his pessimism seems pretty overblown.

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"You need not be a Wall Street chieftain to feel the anxiety that has wrapped its arms around the American economy. The stock market seems locked in a downward spiral as one bank after another suffers its day of reckoning with bad mortgages. Companies are sharply cutting profit forecasts as the sense takes hold that American consumers are finally too loaded with debt to buy the next flat-screen television. The dollar has fallen to inglorious depths, turning Manhattan department stores into something like a Tijuana street market for Germans. One unpleasant word hovers large: recession."

"How bad could things get? Pretty bad, say many economists. Not so bad that your grandfather's prescriptions for enduring the Great Depression need dusting off, but nasty enough to force many Americans to get reacquainted with living within their means. That could make life uncomfortable. It may also be an unavoidable step toward purging the United States and the global economy of a major source of instability -- an unhealthy dependence on the willingness of American consumers to keep buying even as debt mounts. Concerns that Americans must eventually grow thrifty, leaving factories from Guangzhou to Guatemala City scrambling for buyers, now sows unease around the world."

—Clay Waters is the director of Times Watch, an MRC project tracking the New York Times.


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The NYT is sinking

November 27, 2007 - 15:42 ET by c5then

And they would love for everyone who reads it to believe that it is the "economy's fault" and not their editorial bias.



The day that "politician" became a career choice is the day we started losing the Republic. Let's get it back! Fred08.com

Fair and Balanced

November 27, 2007 - 15:47 ET by planetrepublican

This is standard-operating-procedure until the next election. Bash the economy, bash Bush, bash the Republicans, get Democrats elected. Politics 101 except that the media is not supposed to be bias; alas, those days are over. The NY Times is simply a mouthpiece of the DNC as is the entire MSM.  The 3 biggest lies are: the check is in the mail, (edited out for vulgarity), and the NY Times is fair and balanced.  After you buy into that, how about that bridge I have for sale? 

 Yea..I saw all those

November 27, 2007 - 15:59 ET by ConservativeRex

 Yea..I saw all those recessionites tripping all over themselves in the stores this past week end.  Times sure did look rough. 

Looks like the Times has another reporter who just can't tell the truth. 

this is a hoax?

November 27, 2007 - 16:10 ET by johnG

all the post above me seem to imply that this recession talk is simply made up because of the election? really? you're really not be worried by any of the economic data that is negative?

so tightening credit markets, slumping consumer confidence, a recent
plunge in financial sector stocks including GSEs(huge credit
consequences), and further declines in housing shouldn't raise any red flags?

what economic indicators would you look for to truly signal the possibility of recession?

johng.... When the dems

November 27, 2007 - 16:17 ET by Clear thinker

johng....

When the dems and the liberal media says the economy is top notch, that will be the signal for me. 

Get Email updates from Fred http://socialnet.imwithfred.com/email_alert_july_26.html

JohnG, the definition of

November 27, 2007 - 17:57 ET by jdhawk

JohnG, the definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.  An example of a recession that meets the above criteria, are the Clinton recessions. 

Bush's stimulus package for the economy which included tax cuts in 2001 and again, in 2003, righted the economy.  During Bush's terms of office, the economy, on average, has outperformed that of the economy during Clinton's terms of office.  And, while the sub-prime mortgage debacle will likely have the effect of slowing the economy to about 1% GDP growth in Q4/07, the economy is likely to pick back up in Q1/08 with the several Fed Fund rate cuts already in place and on more on the way. 

But, hey, johnG, if you and the NYT really think that a recession is looming, why don't you propose making the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent and eliminate still more taxes like death taxes and the AMT?  These measures are sure to bouy consumer confidence and send both main street and wall street soaring.

 

control c, control v

November 27, 2007 - 18:24 ET by johnG

first, i'm all for tax cuts. i work in finance and would love to have less tax taken out of my upcoming bonus. i hate the amt and any tax increases. so you can ease off that gas pedal.

second, first quarter '08?

November 27, 2007 - 18:34 ET by johnG

second, first quarter '08? reallly? thats mighty optimistic.

clinton recession? oh you're one of those people that wants to move the start date of the recession? i dont get it.

look this up, whats the SP500 return for the clinton presidency? and whats the SP500 return for the bush presidency?

but honestly the business cycle doesn't follow the election cycle(so why try to make it?), so why are you trying to bash clinton and cheer bush? that sounds like bias!

bias

November 28, 2007 - 07:34 ET by Agnostic

You are right that is bias but there are certain things that need to be taken into account. Maybe the most important is that we are at the point where the media as being screaming "wolf" so long that any one doubtful of the medias intentions might miss any true indications that we are heading for a recession. Take the recent reporting on Black Friday. Report after report of eroding consumer confidence and lack of descrecianary funds for families but lo and behold we have another record spending day. So eroding consumer confidence appears to be something the media is trying to create instead of report. Next the stock market is down but the "experts" have been saying the market has needed a correction for five years and now that we have one it is instantly a recession. Once again market reporting seems to be an attempt to shape the news instead of report it. The housing slump is a real problem but the facts are somewhat in debate. From a laymans pov is appears that the market burned so hot and so fast for so long that it overshot its true value and now we are paying for that overestimation. Does this mean recession or just a correction? Smarter people than me will argue that but time will tell. It is ironic though that Nationwide doesn't seem to be predicting doom about the realestate market when they were potentially the hardest hit.
As far as Clinton and Bush economies there are literally thousands of variables going back to Reagan and possibly even Carter that had effects on the markets during those years. People blame Clinton for the bursting of the tech-bubble but if not for the bubble the market would never soared as high as it did so if your going to blame him you have to give him credit for getting it there in the first place. Plus the nation learned a lot about bubbles and how to control the effect of the burst. IIRC, Greenspan even said the way to deal with a bubble is to control its effects and not try to control the bubble itself.
As far as business cycle following the election cycle it was the media that for a years said "its the economy, stupid" and people believed that Clinton was saving the country but for the last six + years we've heard nothing but doom and gloom with numbers that are similar and sometimes better than those of the Clinton years. MSM bias is the answer to all these and it is only getting worse.

greats points

November 28, 2007 - 11:30 ET by johnG

agnostic, you make some great points in your post. probably the most thoughtful and intelligent post i've read about the economy on NB.

you hit the "giving credit" issue right on the head. there is no way to dissect the success of the market and correctly give accolades, so why try?

on the other hand, i'm not so sure the media is really that doom and gloom for all of bush's years. recently they have been, but like i've been posting here, there are solid economic facts to worry about a serious downturn in the markets and/or economy. i just don't think the media when is comes to business news is biased, i just think they're stupid. i think the job of taking "economic indicators" and turning it into sound bites on TV hasn't worked so far, or just that it doesn't translate. i think when you try to make business news into layman news everyone becomes a bull or a bear, there is no analysis, it's BUY BUY BUY or SELL SELL SELL. and really, that's not the way things work. its not a matter of bias, its a matter of stupidity.

my point with my posts here is that it seems that some want to disregard the idea of recession as some media creation and that would be very, very wrong. hopefully we'll avoid(and we should) with the help of a some rate cuts, but this isn't coming up because bush is in office, it's coming up because its a real possibility.

Stupid on Economy

November 29, 2007 - 05:30 ET by Agnostic

From IBD - We remember fall 1992, when it was all about "the economy, stupid," and the economy was "the worst since the Great Depression." Never mind that we were in the 18th month of expansion, or that activity in the third quarter of that year was the strongest in three years. The anti-Bush media had their marching orders, and 92% of stories written about the economy in that stretch were negative. Then, as soon as Clinton was elected, and even before he was sworn in, the percentage of negative stories dropped to 14%.
Sorry for the long quote and I'll admit this is not exactly a neutral source but I doubt their numbers are off by more than a few points, even 10 % points and the numbers are dramatic (92% vs. 14%). While I'll grant that the media is stupid when it comes to economic indicators they seem to have a long list of "experts" to bring on to tell the public the same side of the story again and again. Economic indicators are to be studied, watched and used by those who have the experience but apparently they are also to be used by a media with an agenda and that agenda has nothing to do with economics and I guess that is my point. The business reporting is not so much about the economy but the effect of economic reporting and its effect on the electorate.

.....American consumers are

November 27, 2007 - 16:44 ET by MidAmerica

.....American consumers are finally too loaded with debt to buy the next flat-screen television.

  Just bought mine on Black Friday.   : )

It's the GOVERNMENT - not the economy

November 27, 2007 - 16:53 ET by RonC

"A sinking economy" or "Recession" is always at hand - according to socialist naysayers who have nothing but gloom and doom forecasts to combat the best economy seen in decades.

In April of 2006 the growth rate of the economy stood at the fast-clip of 4.8% - a very fast recovery from the doldrums of two years prior resulting from the Gulf Coast hurricanes.

Today our economic growth rate stands at the astounding rate of 6% and is expected to begin decline next year to about 5.8% due again to rising oil prices - again caused primarily by hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, tightening credit - and threats of increased taxation.

The economy of the US is rated best of any nation on earth - in fact the envy of every nation on earth. We export more than double the gross domestic product of our nearest rival, China.

Tell the lying New York Slimes to get a grip - our economy is not just doing well - it's astoundingly promising... and will continue to do well - if we can keep the Democrats from giving this nation another Carter-treatment.

 

clearly you're not an economist...

November 27, 2007 - 17:11 ET by johnG

the health of the economy and risk of future recession aren't judged by past GDP growth rates or the size of GDP.

you really don't know what you're talking about, do you? but a few more jabs about the democrats will totally strengthen your argument.

could you provide a link to

November 27, 2007 - 18:39 ET by crshedd

could you provide a link to the 6% growth we are enjoying today?

While the NYT slowly sinks

November 27, 2007 - 17:21 ET by the_red_state

While the NYT slowly sinks into insolvency...

"....nasty enough to force

November 27, 2007 - 18:01 ET by red_dragon311

"....nasty enough to force many Americans to get reacquainted with living within their means. That could make life uncomfortable."

 

OH MY GOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  people are going to have to start living within thier means   OH THE HUMANITY!!!!!!!!!!

 

it makes me sick to see a person driving brand new Escalades while talking on thier blue tooth that is conected to the newest blackberry phone, and the kids have no coat  on.  

 spend spend spend be the first on your block with the newest most expensive crap....and dam the house payment the gov't will bail me out!!!!!!!!!!!!!

sorry, posted in wrong

November 27, 2007 - 18:40 ET by crshedd

sorry, posted in wrong place