ABC Recycles Story Blaming Global Warming for Recent Hurricane Intensity


History seemed to repeat itself on Monday's World News with Charles Gibson, as substitute anchor Dan Harris introduced a story, filed by ABC correspondent John Berman, which highlighted the view of "some scientists" that global warming is responsible for an increase in the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes in recent decades. Not only did the same Harris/Berman team file a similar story over two years ago on the July 9, 2005 show, then known as World News Tonight, but Monday's report also recycled soundbites of two scientists from the earlier story. Berman, from Monday September 3: "Across the globe, the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has almost doubled over the past 30 years. Some scientists say the cause is global warming." Notably, two years ago on the July 15, 2005 World News Tonight, ABC's Jeffrey Kofman filed a story dismissing the influence of global warming, contradicting Berman's July 9 story from the previous week. (Transcripts follow)

On Monday's show, after relaying that Hurricane Felix is headed for Central America, Harris introduced the report: "Storms this powerful are supposed to be extremely rare, but this is the second such storm in two weeks. And some climatologists are warning there will be more. Here's ABC's John Berman."

Berman relayed that the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms is increasing, as he highlighted the theory that global warming is the underlying cause. Berman: "Studies show mammoth storms could be on the rise. Across the globe, the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has almost doubled over the past 30 years. Some scientists say the cause is global warming."

On the July 9, 2005 World News Tonight, Harris introduced Berman's story: "Scientists have been surprised by the intensity of recent storm systems, and they're wondering whether global warming may be playing a role. At its peak yesterday, Dennis was the strongest July hurricane ever reported off the U.S. coast. As ABC's John Berman reports, that record may not stand for long."

Berman similarly pointed to studies showing an increase in high-intensity hurricanes. Berman: "It could get even worse. According to a comprehensive study, hurricanes will become even more intense because of global warming -- the idea that greenhouse gases are heating the earth's atmosphere and oceans."

Monday's story recycled clips of NOAA's Tom Knutson and Old Dominion University's Robert Tuleya first used in the July 9, 2005 story:

TOM KNUTSON, NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab: Those storms that do occur are going to have the potential to be significantly stronger in a warmer climate.
...

Prof. ROBERT TULEYA, Old Dominion University: It could be the difference between, say, a roof staying on the house and the roof being ripped off.
...

KNUTSON: In our simulations, you end up with some of these really monster storms.

On the July 15, 2005, World News Tonight, Elizabeth Vargas introduced a story filed by Jeffrey Kofman that contradicted Berman's July 9 story as he cited scientists who blamed that year's intense hurriane season on other factors, dismissing the role of global warming. Kofman: "Scientists say this is not because of global warming, it is simply a lot of cyclical climate patterns conspiring to create the perfect conditions for a long season of perfect storms."

So if Monday's World News with Charles Gibson has you worried, take comfort in the possibility that Vargas and Kofman will show up on Sunday and say it was all just a bad dream.

Also of note, just two weeks ago on the August 21 The O'Reilly Factor on FNC, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Joe Bastardi argued that the trend toward stronger storms is not caused by global warming, but is instead part of a normal cycle that has been observed multiple times in the past century. Bastardi: "We're back in the '30's, '40's and 50's. This back and forth cycle that occurs, we saw it in the 1890s to 1910. ... And people are just getting carried away and fascinated when, if they go back and look at what happened before, you can see the similarities."

Below are complete transcripts of Berman's stories from the Monday September 3, 2007 World News with Charles Gibson, and the July 9, 2005 World News Tonight, followed by Kofman's story from the July 15, 2005 World News Tonight:

From the September 3, 2007 World News with Charles Gibson:

DAN HARRIS: There is another massive hurricane charging across the Caribbean tonight. Hurricane Felix is expected to slam into Central America tomorrow morning with a potential storm surge of 18 feet. Storms this powerful are supposed to be extremely rare, but this is the second such storm in two weeks. And some climatologists are warning there will be more. Here's ABC's John Berman.

JOHN BERMAN: Two weeks ago, it was Hurricane Dean with winds of 160 miles per hour. Now, it's Felix, with winds of 145 miles per hour. A powerful one-two punch.

BERNIE RAYNO, AccuWeather.com: Once you get into 4 to category 5 hurricanes, you're going to see catastrophic damage.

BERMAN: Category 5 hurricanes carry winds over 155 miles an hour. Only three storms of that magnitude have made landfall in the U.S. since the government start keeping records. The last was Hurricane Andrew in 1992. But studies show mammoth storms could be on the rise. Across the globe, the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has almost doubled over the past 30 years. Some scientists say the cause is global warming.

TOM KNUTSON, NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab: Those storms that do occur are going to have the potential to be significantly stronger in a warmer climate.

BERMAN: Over the past 25 years, tropical ocean temperatures have increased by about half a degree Celsius. Hurricanes get their strength from warm ocean water. Higher water temperatures means more energy for the storms. In a simulation of more than 1,000 storms, scientists found that within 80 years, the average hurricane strength will increase by half a category in the five-step scale.

Prof. ROBERT TULEYA, Old Dominion University: It could be the difference between, say, a roof staying on the house and the roof being ripped off.

BERMAN: Average wind speed could jump 15 miles an hour. Rainfall could increase by two inches.

TULEYA: In our simulations, you end up with some of these really monster storms.

BERMAN: The good news is that these storms were on a computer. However, storms like Dean and Felix are real. John Berman, ABC News, New York.

From the Saturday July 9, 2005 World News Tonight:

DAN HARRIS: "Scientists have been surprised by the intensity of recent storm systems, and they're wondering whether global warming may be playing a role. At its peak yesterday, Dennis was the strongest July hurricane ever reported off the U.S. coast. As ABC's John Berman reports, that record may not stand for long."

JOHN BERMAN: "In Florida, they know just how powerful hurricanes can be. Over the last year, they have been reminded more times than they care to count."

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: "I've had enough hurricanes."

BERMAN: "But it could get even worse. According to a comprehensive study, hurricanes will become even more intense because of global warming -- the idea that greenhouse gases are heating the earth's atmosphere and oceans."

TOM KNUTSON, NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab Climate Modeler: "Those storms that do occur are going to have the potential to be significantly stronger in a warmer climate."

BERMAN: "Hurricanes get their strength from warm ocean water. Higher water temperatures mean more energy for the storms."

KNUTSON: "As a storm is moving across the ocean, it's evaporating water from the ocean's surface, and that's supplying the fuel for the storm."

BERMAN: "Tom Knutson is lead author of the study which used one of the world's most powerful computers to simulate 1,300 virtual storms. He found that within 80 years, the average hurricane strength will increase by half a category in the five-step scale of destructive power."

Prof. ROBERT TULEYA, Old Dominion University: "It could be the difference between, say, a roof staying on the house and the roof being ripped off."

BERMAN: "Average wind speed could jump 15 miles an hour, rainfall two inches and storm surge several feet."

TULEYA: "In our simulations, you end up with some of these really monster storms."

BERMAN: "The study says nothing about how global warming will affect the frequency of hurricanes, but the researchers say that is next on their agenda. The residents of Florida will be waiting. John Berman, ABC News, New York."

From the Friday July 15, 2005 World News Tonight:

ELIZABETH VARGAS: "Another major storm is causing misery in the Caribbean. Tonight, Hurricane Emily has winds of 115 miles per hour and could threaten Texas by Tuesday. It is the fifth named Atlantic storm since June 1st. the first time since they began keeping records in 1851 that so many major storms have formed so early. So for our 'Closer Look' this evening, what's behind all this? And are more deadly hurricanes on the way? Here's ABC's Jeffrey Kofman."

JEFFREY KOFMAN: "Last week, Hurricane Dennis, now Hurricane Emily. July is supposed to be low season for hurricanes. But it seems just like peak season, late August, early September. And there are good reasons."

STAN GOLDENBERG, NOAA Meteorologist: "Really, what you have is you have just a combination of a lot of favorable factors hitting the Atlantic right now, setting up for a very, very active year, which has already really started now."

KOFMAN: "The first named storms of the season -- Arlene, Bret and Cindy -- had limited punch. Dennis and now Emily are different, born from storms blowing off the coast of Africa in an area meteorologists call the Tropical Box, where warm water acts like jet fuel for hurricanes. Usually, these waters stay cool until late August, but already this July, the entire area of the Atlantic where hurricanes form is two to four degrees warmer than normal."

BRUCE ALBRECHT, University of Miami Meteorologist: "This time of the year, we don't expect to see hurricanes forming off systems that come off the African coast. And this year is an exception to that."

KOFMAN: "And then, there's the Bermuda high, a high-pressure system that is sitting over the north Atlantic. Right now, it stretches almost to American shores. Hurricanes can't penetrate it, so they are forced westward to the Caribbean, Florida and the Gulf. Even the wind patterns over the Atlantic this summer are helping the hurricanes thrive."

GOLDENBERG: "Yes, we're seeing a lot in June, July so far. But, really, I would expect the worst is yet to come. We've got a lot of activity to go. This is going to be a very, very busy year."

KOFMAN: "Scientists say this is not because of global warming, it is simply a lot of cyclical climate patterns conspiring to create the perfect conditions for a long season of perfect storms. Jeffrey Kofman, ABC News, Miami."

—Brad Wilmouth is a news analyst at the Media Research Center.


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What hurricanes?

The old rhetoric coming out of the leftist news machine is getting tired and worn out.

What's worse is that they have a complicit group of leftists in the scientific community that changed the policy on naming hurricanes... so they can print stories that say "Sixth named storm of the season!" and the like... but not really tell you that they can now name tropical storms, where just ten short years ago, they only named storms of ACTUAL hurricane strength. So the next time you're reading something about all the named storms and how they're saying they're now increasing (which even when including non-hurricanes, they're not) you'll know they've once again fudged the numbers to try and get a result that they can then push their agenda with.

____________________________________________________

"We can only reason from what is; we can reason on actualities, but not on possibilities." ~ Thomas Paine

Exactly!

That's the beauty of it!

That's the beauty of it! More hurricanes, fewer hurricanes, stronger, weaker, faster or slower moving....AGW does it all!!!

Nice how that works out.......

Better technology means more storm reports

We've only had the satellite technology to see hurricanes way out in the Atlantic for a few decades.  We'll never know how many storms really occurred in the first half of the 20th century that went unobserved or for which we have inadequate data.

When you put the clowns in charge, don't be surprised when a circus breaks out.

technology != more storms

Just because we have better technology does not mean people could not track storms. In fact, they were quite good at tracking storms back then.Galveston Hurricane - 936 mbar (27.63 inHg), 125 knots (145 mph)

As you can see, they had the info on this one which all hurricanes are measured by, only, this one was in 1900. Maybe wind speeds were not as accurate down to the knot, but I bet they were as close as 3-5% off, and maybe the path predictions were not as accurate, but after the fact, everyone knows were a storm has been.

So the 'low-tech' argument really doesn't work for the 20th Century. Storm tracking and measuring was very good for their time and humans were trapsing across the Atlantic in record numbers, so even tracks of hurricanes were known fairly well, maybe a storm or two were missed, but it is very unlikely.

____________________________________________________

"We can only reason from what is; we can reason on actualities, but not on possibilities." ~ Thomas Paine

Hysterics and Desperation

The media is so obsessed with blaming everything on Global Warming it is getting pathetic but recycling stories is simply desperation. Especially when the science is against you...

Link between climate change and tropical cyclone intensity: more research necessary (World Meteorological Organization)

"A consensus of 125 of the world’s leading tropical cyclone researchers
and forecasters says that no firm link can yet be drawn between
human-induced climate change and variations in the intensity and
frequency of tropical cyclones."

Global Warming Increases Wind Shear, Reduces Hurricanes, Climate Model Shows (Science Daily)


Global Warming and Hurricanes (PDF) (William M. Gray, Ph.D Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University)

"Global hurricane frequency and/or intensity has not been observed to undergo any significant trends as a result of the global warming of the last 30 years for frequency and for the last 20 years for intensity"

 

The Anti "Man-Made" Global Warming Resource

  "Global hurricane

 

"Global hurricane frequency and/or intensity has not been
observed to undergo any significant trends as a result of the global
warming of the last 30 years for frequency and for the last 20 years
for intensity"?????

 

Well, well, that's just because, well, uh, well, well they don't take into account....um...well, it's, it's, well....um....

There is a consensus!! The science is settled, dammit!!!

Brad - naturally, CAT 4,5 storms increase

Brad - It's really just a slight of hand trick - this very short term analysis of the past 30 years or so.  

Berman relayed that the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms is increasing, as he highlighted the theory that global warming is the underlying cause. Berman: "Studies show mammoth storms could be on the rise. Across the globe, the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has almost doubled over the past 30 years. Some scientists say the cause is global warming."

Approximately 30 years ago we were indeed in a low point in the Atlantic cyclone cycle. Just as some scientists were predicting a coming ice age, others were predicting a return of an active cylone cycle for the Atlantic basin. There are questions any intelligent (curious) reporter would ask of Berman; "what was occurring during the years preceding the past 30 years or so?" OR - "How many cyclones (inc. major storms) were simply not seen prior to the days of satellites and Hurricane Hunter airplanes?"

One excellent reference piece would be found here (hint - we have no idea of how many storms there were in the past - or how intense they might have been):

Source: Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900. Thanks to Chris Landsea of NOAA.

Hurricane Wilma set the Atlantic Hurricane record for strongest cyclone ever recorded - based on a hurricane hunter plan barametric pressure reading of 882mb. Wilma blew up into a monster storm in a day's time - and then weakened in a day's time. Without the tecnology developed during the past 30-40 years, we never would have known about Wilma's historic status.

Another Source

When I researched this I found that air reconnaissance did not start until 1944 and Satellite reconnaissance until 1960 thus any claims of "trends" of the amount of hurricanes pre-1960 or pre-1944 are simply absurd.

A Tropical Cyclone Data Tape For the North Atlantic Basin, 1886-1983 (NOAA)

"..until organized reconnaissance began in 1944, the two major sources
of information on tropical cyclones were land stations and ships at
sea. Undoubtedly, during this early period some storms went undetected."

 

The Anti "Man-Made" Global Warming Resource