Walkoveryou is mine. Well, I guess not anymore. I thin around 9000 as well. It would be nice if someone were to actually put an honest assessment of what is going on in the markets. The only question I have is how tight will lending be in the next few months. If it really gets clamped down upon, then this could be really deep.
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time!h/t Dr_Liberty
This is a media driven and government driven fear mongering.
1) Yes it will cause tightening of loan restrictions, but after the absolute mess caused by no loan restrictions and affirmative action loans, THIS NEEDS to happen.
2) The reason Bush and his cronies in the democrat party want to push this BS sandwich through is so that firms can CONTINUE to push affirmative action loans. This allows Bush to appear as if he was helping the minorities get access to the "american dream".
3) There is no way the market will fall that far. It's already recovering this morning.
4) Don't panic.
Palin has accomplished great things, while Obama has continued to make empty promises that the world owes you a living.
so if you went to vegas and lost all your money .. if your mortgaged house burned down and you had no insurance .. if your car was stolen, no insurance and you still owed money on it .. you're still freaking responsible, responsible, responsible .. no bailout, not now, not ever .. never, never, never .. as an added incentive, it seems the lower the economy goes, the more the illegals are returning home .. reducing the skanky democratic voter turnout ..
Just because....this is a somewhat manufactured "crisis". It's a crisis because that's the perception....and the media has a vested interest in keeping it a crisis....the election of The One.
If the new "bailout" is just a correction to the rules of operation (get rid of Sarbane Oxley, Mark to Market, capital gains taxes, etc.) capital will be freed up to grease the skids.
Furthermore, the feds need to get out of the middle of this "toxic asset" crap....if they're toxic, put 'em on the block and let the high bidder have them....one at a time or in blocks, either way. Sell them off at their market value, for crying out loud, don't make us, the poor taxpaying saps, pay book value...Sheesh! How idiotic.
There are plenty of entrepreneurs around to turn this pig's ear into a purse without the government's lipstick (sorry Odumbo).
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
my financial situation is fine .. most everyone i know is fine, still travelling, still going to casinos, still eating out .. i'm sure there are people who are hurting, some thru their own fault, some thru circumstance .. in any case, this is America and you are supposed to be responsible for yourself .. not whinning to the government all the time .. asshole liberal commie marxist peckerwoods !
input. I believe a lot of the Wall Street guys are playing the government as well. These guys see what is going on. Of course it falls because no bail out is approved. They want the bail out that way if they make bad decisions they can as for one as well. So if a bail out gets approved stocks will go up to give the illusion to the mouth breathers of the land of an improvement. In reality they will just be playinig the system.
This is utterly ridiculous. I forget who I saw talking about it but it was an financial guy.He made a good point: Let these people fail. It won't affect everybody...just the guys who were idiots and made the bad choices. It will get the whole lot of them....the dumb homeowner who didnt read their mortgage and bought out of their range, the idiot banks who bought into Carters adn Clintoons plans, and the retards int he government for trying to manipulate the market. He said the only reason it may affect others is because the government cronies won't fail without trying to take others out with them...but the normal people who read, write and pay thier bills all should be just fine.
Another guy said if the government gave every american over the age 18 250, 000 it would cost less than 800 billion dollars adn the money would go to people who could resolve thier debt, BUY A HOUSE, invest the money, and put it back into the economy...but hey that wouldn't get the cronies and their lap dogs any cash.
Even the money given to those who "blow through it like kleenex" would help somebody - the liquor store owners where the blowers buy party supplies, the auto dealers where the blowers buy cars they couldn't possibly afford otherwise, etc. The money just won't help the blowers as much as it will those who use the money wisely.
When the Federal government spends money, that helps the economy grow - but only in the area around Washington, DC, where all the bureaucrats live - it tightens the belt on the economy in the rest of the country, as we send more money to DC and have less left to spend on ourselves and each other. When private citizens spend money - without going into debt over their heads - that helps the economy grow wherever those private citizens live and work.
It would _briefly_ help those people. And because all those people got the money for doing nothing for society, they would just say;
"Oh look I can sit around on my ass and do nothing and the government will bail me out!"
Where as you cut taxes and encourage business growth it creates permanent stimulus, not temporary, non-productive stimulus.
When the Federal government spends money, that helps the economy grow -
but only in the area around Washington, DC, where all the bureaucrats
live
When the Fed spends money the privates sector HAS to become smaller. Whether that's giving out 250,000 dollars to individuals or spending money "locally", the fed is STILL taking money from the private sector and still taking employees from the private sector. Do you really think that those individuals that get a 250,000 dollar "bailout", are going to want to continue to work for their same job?
Why should they when the government is just throwing money at them?
The same applies to Wall Street. When we reward BAD behavior, we will get MORE AND MORE OF IT.
Palin has accomplished great things, while Obama has continued to make empty promises that the world owes you a living.
the math is somewhat suspect. If the government were to split 800 billion equally for every legal citizen over the age of 18 in the U.S., that would come to roughly $4,000 per person (not $250k). This is based on the assumption of 200,000,000 legal adults in the U.S.
does that include illegals ? because, of course, the libs will have to give to the illegals, too, since to do otherwise wouldn't be fair, or tolerant, or diverse, or kiss their butts to get their votes .. besides, to the yanqui government, what's the diference between $4000. and $250,000. ... mere chunk change .. asshole liberal commie marxist peckerwoods ..
Who knows where it should be since it is currently overvalued due to a credit bubble. It could fall anywhere between 7,000 and 10,000. Wherever it ends up will be more realistic anyway. The Bailout can't fix the problem which is we are in too much debt all the bailout can do is make that worse.
You said inflation will go throught the roof. Inflation kills creditors and helps debtors. Isn't the interest on the debt at the best rate on the planet. What happens if we grow? Wouldn't a bigger economy better handle the debt load?
Yes, this oppressive debt load is oppressive and depresses me too. I feels the sad. I do. I really do. feels it that is. feels it bad. I am now an official poptech permabear too.
And it might anyway since the Fed just injected 600 Billion more into the banks. To grow your economy you need to have exports, you cannot have a growing economy based on imports driven by credit debt. Well you can and then this happens when everyone reaches their credit limit. The stock market has been artificially inflated due to a credit bubble that is now bursting.
Let me explain it this way, you cannot spend your way out of credit debt. We need to create wealth in this country and that means producing something of value and saving money. The whole wealth creation based on fantasy home values is a myth.
I won't argue with you when you are being rational.
Just one thing to disagree. The vast majority of home loans are being paid for on time and with realistic mortgages. Most homes do have a very real value. I think things are bad, not insane bad.
I realize that only 6% are defaulting but due to the boom home prices are very likely inflated by 30-45%. All the recent statistics showing household "wealth" are based on these fantasy home values. You are seeing home prices adjusting in the worst areas first:
Now falling home prices are good for first time buyers but bad for those who need the equity. Especially bad for anyone who foolishly took out a second mortgage.
I think home prices have fallen like 16% already. 14% more to the low on your 30-45% inflated values.
California needs an special chart all it's own. Sorry, but liberal loony hollywoody town, yea, they are gonna recognise rational home prices.
I have a 30 year fixed at 6% and I pay about 20% of my take home pay for the mortgage. I have no second mortgage. Don't care it the value has gone up or down. I am not selling. Also, I live in little farm town America, I don't think our values ever got bubbly.
Not all markets are affected either. I have a home and tried to sell since I moved out of state(at least its rented now, phew) but during the six months I was trying to sell the house..I saw the charts from my realtor and only particular portions of the housing market prices are coming down. Low cost homes that were unduly inflated, low to medium that were unduly inflated......but the housing market where my house is and was and above is still on the rise. Hight end and middle to high end housing (and those prices vary depending on where you live) are either staying even or still going up.
The problem is the stupid fannie mae and freddie mac homes...the subprime affirmative action bull crap houses. It just hurts the whole market because now the banks are scared little children when it comes to loaning money. Well banks that is what you get when you loan money to the "cash your check here two weeks in advance crowd".......they don't have the money....the rest of us do. But hey little johny and little susy are now being taught they are the exact same.....even though they both can look down and see a difference(call me a sexist...but if you do you missed the point) and that my friends is the real problem....everyone has to be the smiths
once they started counting unemployment checks as real income then you should have been able to see the edge of the cliff coming at you fast .. dirty rotten asshole liberal commie marxist peckerwoods ..
. . . . The "End of Year" market level will depend on who was elected President. If it's McCain then over 11000 (which ain't too bad). If it's Øbama then the market could go as low as 9000. Either way the market will be up in five years regardless.
The market has gone up in 95% of all five year periods and 100% of ten year periods. This will be no different.
Stocks are on sale right now. Hot market to buy, in ten years you'll look like a genius! They haven't been this affordable in some three years, and they're up about 10% over five years ago.
If that plasma television we want dropped 20%, I bet we'd buy it today! That will only go down in value. Buy your stocks now for long term investing (preferably through Mutual Funds, with good LONG TERM track records) and ten years from now, you'll have a pretty nice nest egg.....
(Gee, I sound like an infomercial!!! LOL)
"Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy." - Winston Churchill
Pelosi is following a pattern she has done since the Dems took power.
She does total over the top circus politics in the House and lets the Senate do the actual legislating.
What happened today is she saw that there was a slim chance the bill would pass on the basis of do something even if it's wrong and played her passion play blowup to kill the bill instead.
If it had passed she and the House would own the bill and she would have then had to resolve it in conference with the Senate version.
You need to step back and watch the bigger picture here and not get all tied up in the individual plays in the play book.
I believe that the Constitution states that all funding bills MUST originate in the House. The bail-out bill or wall street give away is in it's essence a funding bill, so it must go thru the House first.
Maybe I have lost my mind but the stockmarket is not some guaranteed investment, it is a risk and if you did not know that and invested money you could not live without you are an idiot.
Oh no I will not get no payment down credit and will have to put a down payment on a car. Oh no. People will not be able to afford loans for college! Guess what happens then? Lower enrollmen = lower college prices! Amazing how the market fixes itself.
Really? Since when? Surely, not when you are speaking of a state school college system, at least. When did tuition EVER go down? It would be interesting to see that.
That is part of the problem with State Colleges, most of the enrollment does not even pay anywhere near the real tuition price. This allows them to be inefficient.
Government intervention disorts market prices and puts value on inefficiency and malinvestment.
Once you see enrollment go down due to lack of access to loans they will have no choice but to cut expenses (many colleges are hugely inefficient) to lower tuition ... or go out of business. You will also see much more emphasis on community colleges.
BTW the one thing I have consistently seen is that where you got your degree is not as important as what degree you have. Obviously getting a degree from an accredited school makes a difference but so many times HR departments are clueless and do nothing more then match education level earned + experience to job position. Actually if you are in a field that places emphasis on the name of your college, you simply would need to do you post graduate work at one of those schools (if you can get in) and save thousands attending a state institution for your undergraduate degree.
I do not think most people realize what the market is measuring. It is not reacting to "the bill" so much as it is reacting to uncertainty. Yes, if a bill is passed, the market will probably rise. However, if it were to be annouced that there were to be no bill, after a short period of time, it would also rise.
Business people (and I am one) like to have some idea of what the government is going to be doing in regards to regulation and taxation before they commit to long-term plans. At the moment, we have a pseudo-socialist running against a Marxist for President. Obama has promised punishing taxes and regulation, whereas McCain is promising to keep the Bush tax cuts intact. No smart businesperson is putting their $$$ on the line until that question is resolved.
It's much like how the economy stalled in '93-'94 until HillaryCare was destoryed. Once we had gridlock in Congress, business was free to move forward and the economy exploded.
I must agree as it is amazing at how Bush is doing everything he can to drive the DOW into the ground. All the shrill Talking Heads are doing the same.
I am beginning to link everyone on TV who lost a ton of money in "investments" with panic. The whole CNBC staff who have been worthless on advice act like they might not have jobs in the future - LMAO. I just keep cracking up.
Nothing is funnier than the panic that McDonalds is going to go out of business because it cannot get loans, of please what a bunch of Bullshit. What bank would not loan to McDonalds? Hell I will loan money to McDonalds.
...that many of “the masses” are finally seeing things for what they are. Even many liberals are conceding that the media is in the bag for Obama. The "fear industrial complex" may have finally succeeded in getting the recession they’ve been working on so hard for the last 18 months. And now it’s just getting silly, like “experts” claiming that McDonalds is in trouble because it can’t borrow money? Come on! Every single day, my mailbox is full of offers from banks to lend me tens-of-thousands of dollars UNSECURED!
The only people who are screwed are those who should not be lent money in the first place. No more no-doc no-down 100% home loans. No more trading in upside-down cars for new ones with 160% financing. No more fiscal stupidity because the government isn’t going to underwrite it anymore. This is a crisis? Only if you’re in the business of selling this crap.
I just heard on TV (CBS Early Show) that we have a record Federal deficit of $11 Trillion - I'm not sure if that includes the $700 Billion Bailout or not, but either way. (Keep it in perspective: if it doesn't, then the bailout will make it $11.7 Trillion.)
Hypothetically - I KNOW this is NOT going to happen - suppose the Federal government completely stopped all spending, and paid off the $11 Trillion. I know that a lot of it is owed to foreigners (banks, governments, whoever), but a lot of it is owed to Americans, too.
The same piece on CBS mentioned that credit is the grease that keeps our economy going. I disagree - CASH keeps our economy going; credit is just one source of cash. (Don't think so? If you walk into a stockbroker's office right now and ask to buy 100 shares of XYZ Corp, will he care whether you're pulling $100 bills out of your mattress, or using a credit card?)
$1 Trillion is $1 Trillion, whether it comes from a "Bailout", or from fiscal responsibility in Washington, DC.
What we really need to do is cut government spending - especially Federal spending - let's start with earmarks for museums dedicated to the history of rock n roll and Ted Kennedy's Big Ditch - AND CUT TAXES!!!
About half of that, the government owes to itself. You know like when Social Security is in the black, congress went ahead and spent it and gave an iou to the SSA.
Sort of like you taking money out of your piggybank and leaving an iou to yourself. Silly but they do it so they can say oh we are not stealing ssa money.
Have you guy's notice how much of a socialist pig Bush has become.The repubs need to get their act together.Let the free market work.I just bought 800 shares of Dominion Resources Inc.I hope some of you do some FREE MARKET buying.McCain is blowing every damn chance he has to seperate the difference between him and the libs.
Editor at Large
Comments Policy
I voted 9,000. Don't
September 30, 2008 - 00:28 ET by ckc1227I voted 9,000. Don't really think it will fall that far though.
Not all banks are in trouble it seems.
Wachovia struggling as BB&T makes gain
Not all banks are for the bailout either.
BB&T chief exec slams bailout plan
By the way, BB&T is my bank.
Walkoveryou is mine. Well,
September 30, 2008 - 05:45 ET by HermanoWalkoveryou is mine. Well, I guess not anymore. I thin around 9000 as well. It would be nice if someone were to actually put an honest assessment of what is going on in the markets. The only question I have is how tight will lending be in the next few months. If it really gets clamped down upon, then this could be really deep.
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty
there is no way it will fall that far
September 30, 2008 - 08:16 ET by mbuelThis is a media driven and government driven fear mongering.
1) Yes it will cause tightening of loan restrictions, but after the absolute mess caused by no loan restrictions and affirmative action loans, THIS NEEDS to happen.
2) The reason Bush and his cronies in the democrat party want to push this BS sandwich through is so that firms can CONTINUE to push affirmative action loans. This allows Bush to appear as if he was helping the minorities get access to the "american dream".
3) There is no way the market will fall that far. It's already recovering this morning.
4) Don't panic.
Palin has accomplished great things, while Obama has continued to make empty promises that the world owes you a living.
far and away
September 30, 2008 - 13:40 ET by tejanodiabloso if you went to vegas and lost all your money .. if your mortgaged house burned down and you had no insurance .. if your car was stolen, no insurance and you still owed money on it .. you're still freaking responsible, responsible, responsible .. no bailout, not now, not ever .. never, never, never .. as an added incentive, it seems the lower the economy goes, the more the illegals are returning home .. reducing the skanky democratic voter turnout ..
never look a gift skunk in the tail ..
Wachovia purchased by Citigroup
September 30, 2008 - 15:46 ET by Calypso JonesStock up to almost 4.00 per share todayThey purchased only the banking and mortgage part of it though for a little over 2 million...a steal.
Buy more guns and ammo!
September 30, 2008 - 00:36 ET by HillbillyKingAlso, don't forget your body armor.
You can style an profile in this body armor.
But, I think this is a better choice.
As for the Dow, probably about 9,000. But, I dare say armament manufacturer stock may indeed buck the trend and rise.
If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; But if you really make them think, they'll hate you.
Don Marquis 1878-1937
HB you think like me
September 30, 2008 - 13:01 ET by PopularTechI loaded up on some shells yesterday, better safe than sorry.
guns
September 30, 2008 - 13:44 ET by tejanodiablothis is TEXAS, son .. we got more guns than the army .. except for austin, they're kind of a san francisco with a fake drawl ..
never look a gift skunk in the tail ..
Wachovia should
September 30, 2008 - 00:44 ET by DelsaNever have taken over First Union.
Way big first mistake.
I said 12,000
But who knows? The dollar is up and oil prices are down.
Not great for my oil and gas stocks but ...that is life
Yeah, dels
September 30, 2008 - 00:52 ET by BlondeWhenever my mum moans about filling up her tank, I ask her how her Exxon is doing.
Ends that conversation in a big fat hurry, LOL.
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
If I had my way First Union
September 30, 2008 - 02:31 ET by Right2thePointIf I had my way First Union would have taken over Wachovia and the Golden West Fiasco would never have happened.
I voted 12K
September 30, 2008 - 00:50 ET by BlondeJust because....this is a somewhat manufactured "crisis". It's a crisis because that's the perception....and the media has a vested interest in keeping it a crisis....the election of The One.
If the new "bailout" is just a correction to the rules of operation (get rid of Sarbane Oxley, Mark to Market, capital gains taxes, etc.) capital will be freed up to grease the skids.
Furthermore, the feds need to get out of the middle of this "toxic asset" crap....if they're toxic, put 'em on the block and let the high bidder have them....one at a time or in blocks, either way. Sell them off at their market value, for crying out loud, don't make us, the poor taxpaying saps, pay book value...Sheesh! How idiotic.
There are plenty of entrepreneurs around to turn this pig's ear into a purse without the government's lipstick (sorry Odumbo).
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
I agree -media generated crisis
September 30, 2008 - 04:10 ET by SouthJersey1953If Obambi was not in trouble in the polls, this crisis would not be anywhere as big as the press is pumping it up to be...
McCain/PALIN '08
PALIN/Jindal '12
i agree
September 30, 2008 - 13:02 ET by tejanodiablodamn right Palin/Jindal '12 !!
my financial situation is fine .. most everyone i know is fine, still travelling, still going to casinos, still eating out .. i'm sure there are people who are hurting, some thru their own fault, some thru circumstance .. in any case, this is America and you are supposed to be responsible for yourself .. not whinning to the government all the time .. asshole liberal commie marxist peckerwoods !
never look a gift skunk in the tail ..
I agree witha little added...
September 30, 2008 - 04:36 ET by BadassBuckeyeinput. I believe a lot of the Wall Street guys are playing the government as well. These guys see what is going on. Of course it falls because no bail out is approved. They want the bail out that way if they make bad decisions they can as for one as well. So if a bail out gets approved stocks will go up to give the illusion to the mouth breathers of the land of an improvement. In reality they will just be playinig the system.
This is utterly ridiculous. I forget who I saw talking about it but it was an financial guy.He made a good point: Let these people fail. It won't affect everybody...just the guys who were idiots and made the bad choices. It will get the whole lot of them....the dumb homeowner who didnt read their mortgage and bought out of their range, the idiot banks who bought into Carters adn Clintoons plans, and the retards int he government for trying to manipulate the market. He said the only reason it may affect others is because the government cronies won't fail without trying to take others out with them...but the normal people who read, write and pay thier bills all should be just fine.
Another guy said if the government gave every american over the age 18 250, 000 it would cost less than 800 billion dollars adn the money would go to people who could resolve thier debt, BUY A HOUSE, invest the money, and put it back into the economy...but hey that wouldn't get the cronies and their lap dogs any cash.
absolutely
September 30, 2008 - 08:20 ET by mbuelAlot of these wall street guys ARE democrat supporters. As nonsensical as it is to vote against your best interest ALOT of these guys do.
Warren Buffet is a HUGE democrat supporter. Trump supports both parties, but most of the time supports democrats. And on and on.
There is no way this would happen. If you gave most people that kind of cash, they would just blow through it like kleenex.
Palin has accomplished great things, while Obama has continued to make empty promises that the world owes you a living.
I'll take my $250,000, please.....
September 30, 2008 - 09:17 ET by Nicholas in MIEven the money given to those who "blow through it like kleenex" would help somebody - the liquor store owners where the blowers buy party supplies, the auto dealers where the blowers buy cars they couldn't possibly afford otherwise, etc. The money just won't help the blowers as much as it will those who use the money wisely.
When the Federal government spends money, that helps the economy grow - but only in the area around Washington, DC, where all the bureaucrats live - it tightens the belt on the economy in the rest of the country, as we send more money to DC and have less left to spend on ourselves and each other. When private citizens spend money - without going into debt over their heads - that helps the economy grow wherever those private citizens live and work.
Economics
October 3, 2008 - 16:10 ET by mbuelIt would _briefly_ help those people. And because all those people got the money for doing nothing for society, they would just say;
"Oh look I can sit around on my ass and do nothing and the government will bail me out!"
Where as you cut taxes and encourage business growth it creates permanent stimulus, not temporary, non-productive stimulus.
When the Fed spends money the privates sector HAS to become smaller. Whether that's giving out 250,000 dollars to individuals or spending money "locally", the fed is STILL taking money from the private sector and still taking employees from the private sector. Do you really think that those individuals that get a 250,000 dollar "bailout", are going to want to continue to work for their same job?
Why should they when the government is just throwing money at them?
The same applies to Wall Street. When we reward BAD behavior, we will get MORE AND MORE OF IT.
Palin has accomplished great things, while Obama has continued to make empty promises that the world owes you a living.
bad math
September 30, 2008 - 10:06 ET by kdizzydazeYou probably already figured this out, but. . . .
the math is somewhat suspect. If the government were to split 800 billion equally for every legal citizen over the age of 18 in the U.S., that would come to roughly $4,000 per person (not $250k). This is based on the assumption of 200,000,000 legal adults in the U.S.
Not to mention that the
September 30, 2008 - 10:13 ET by DarkCurrentNot to mention that the government needs to tax that money out of the economy in the first place, losing a nice big chunk in overhead in the process.
Don't forget
September 30, 2008 - 10:55 ET by JWFThe government will pay it back in 30 years after inflation whittles it down to almost nothing. And pay 2% interest until then.
Sincerely,
a Veteran of a 1000 psychic wars.
C'mon, if this deal goes
September 30, 2008 - 10:58 ET by Clear thinkerC'mon, if this deal goes through and it does turn a profit at some point, do you really think the tax payer will ever see a dime of it?
Liberals Lash Out At Sarah’s Parents
Making Fun of AGW http://giovanniworld.wordpress.com/
200,000,000
September 30, 2008 - 13:13 ET by tejanodiablodoes that include illegals ? because, of course, the libs will have to give to the illegals, too, since to do otherwise wouldn't be fair, or tolerant, or diverse, or kiss their butts to get their votes .. besides, to the yanqui government, what's the diference between $4000. and $250,000. ... mere chunk change .. asshole liberal commie marxist peckerwoods ..
never look a gift skunk in the tail ..
Since the Stock Market is overvalued due to a Credit Bubble
September 30, 2008 - 00:55 ET by PopularTechWho knows where it should be since it is currently overvalued due to a credit bubble. It could fall anywhere between 7,000 and 10,000. Wherever it ends up will be more realistic anyway. The Bailout can't fix the problem which is we are in too much debt all the bailout can do is make that worse.
I is confused.
September 30, 2008 - 01:18 ET by JWFYou said inflation will go throught the roof. Inflation kills creditors and helps debtors. Isn't the interest on the debt at the best rate on the planet. What happens if we grow? Wouldn't a bigger economy better handle the debt load?
Yes, this oppressive debt load is oppressive and depresses me too. I feels the sad. I do. I really do. feels it that is. feels it bad. I am now an official poptech permabear too.
Sincerely,
a Veteran of a 1000 psychic wars.
Yes inflation will go through the roof with the Bailout
September 30, 2008 - 01:31 ET by PopularTechAnd it might anyway since the Fed just injected 600 Billion more into the banks. To grow your economy you need to have exports, you cannot have a growing economy based on imports driven by credit debt. Well you can and then this happens when everyone reaches their credit limit. The stock market has been artificially inflated due to a credit bubble that is now bursting.
Let me explain it this way, you cannot spend your way out of credit debt. We need to create wealth in this country and that means producing something of value and saving money. The whole wealth creation based on fantasy home values is a myth.
RationalTech
September 30, 2008 - 01:48 ET by JWFI won't argue with you when you are being rational.
Just one thing to disagree. The vast majority of home loans are being paid for on time and with realistic mortgages. Most homes do have a very real value. I think things are bad, not insane bad.
Sincerely,
a Veteran of a 1000 psychic wars.
Mythical Home Values
September 30, 2008 - 02:12 ET by PopularTechI realize that only 6% are defaulting but due to the boom home prices are very likely inflated by 30-45%. All the recent statistics showing household "wealth" are based on these fantasy home values. You are seeing home prices adjusting in the worst areas first:
The Housing Bubble (Case-Shiller index)
California Home Prices Drop Record 41% Amid Defaults (Bloomberg)
Now falling home prices are good for first time buyers but bad for those who need the equity. Especially bad for anyone who foolishly took out a second mortgage.
I know I know.
September 30, 2008 - 02:26 ET by JWFI think home prices have fallen like 16% already. 14% more to the low on your 30-45% inflated values.
California needs an special chart all it's own. Sorry, but liberal loony hollywoody town, yea, they are gonna recognise rational home prices.
I have a 30 year fixed at 6% and I pay about 20% of my take home pay for the mortgage. I have no second mortgage. Don't care it the value has gone up or down. I am not selling. Also, I live in little farm town America, I don't think our values ever got bubbly.
I am doing my part to help out teh poptech.
Sincerely,
a Veteran of a 1000 psychic wars.
And only certain home markets are affected:
September 30, 2008 - 04:46 ET by BadassBuckeyeNot all markets are affected either. I have a home and tried to sell since I moved out of state(at least its rented now, phew) but during the six months I was trying to sell the house..I saw the charts from my realtor and only particular portions of the housing market prices are coming down. Low cost homes that were unduly inflated, low to medium that were unduly inflated......but the housing market where my house is and was and above is still on the rise. Hight end and middle to high end housing (and those prices vary depending on where you live) are either staying even or still going up.
The problem is the stupid fannie mae and freddie mac homes...the subprime affirmative action bull crap houses. It just hurts the whole market because now the banks are scared little children when it comes to loaning money. Well banks that is what you get when you loan money to the "cash your check here two weeks in advance crowd".......they don't have the money....the rest of us do. But hey little johny and little susy are now being taught they are the exact same.....even though they both can look down and see a difference(call me a sexist...but if you do you missed the point) and that my friends is the real problem....everyone has to be the smiths
cause and effect
September 30, 2008 - 13:21 ET by tejanodiabloonce they started counting unemployment checks as real income then you should have been able to see the edge of the cliff coming at you fast .. dirty rotten asshole liberal commie marxist peckerwoods ..
never look a gift skunk in the tail ..
PT, if you really want to fix this....
September 30, 2008 - 01:51 ET by R D Helm...then support the FairTax.
Between $12 and 14 trillion of this country's financial assets are floating around offshore, most of which has already been taxed at 35%.
Just imagine if the 35% corporate tax rate was dropped to 5%, or eliminated entirely.
-Dave
Politicians are the only people in the world who create problems and then campaign against them - Rick Roberts
My troll fuse length today: 0.003mm
I support a flat tax, lower taxes or no taxes
September 30, 2008 - 02:16 ET by PopularTechBut the fair tax never made any sense to me...
Answers for the FairTax Faction (Townhall)
Fair Tax, Flawed Tax (The Wall Street Journal)
Just how Fair is the 'FairTax'? (Money Magazine)
ScareTax, Not FairTax (The New York Sun)
Scientology's Fair Tax Plot (CBS News)
- Dianetics, The Tax Plan (The New Republic)
The Fair Tax and its big break for the $200,000-plus crowd (Time)
The Truth about Neal Boortz’s Poorly-Named “FairTax" Plan (Tennesseans for Fair Taxation)
The Fair Tax Fraud (The Ludwig von Mises Institute)
Un-'FairTax' (The Washington Post)
Unspinning the FairTax (FactCheck.org)
We can definitely start with lowering the corporate tax to a competitive level.
I'm thinking 8000.
September 30, 2008 - 10:43 ET by lotrI'm thinking 8000. Fortunately, I'm not retiring for another 30 years. Anybody know the market forecast for 2038?
Partly cloudy, with a 30%
September 30, 2008 - 12:34 ET by Roger the ShrubberPartly cloudy, with a 30% chance of acid rain, which should help melt some of the glaciers in the Gulf of Mexico.
Looks like we need the
September 30, 2008 - 13:14 ET by lotrLooks like we need the bailout then.
perspective poptech
September 30, 2008 - 11:05 ET by JWFInflation screws the math. We need to look at the PE number. Historically, the price to earnings is about 15%. We are not that far above that number.
Sincerely,
a Veteran of a 1000 psychic wars.
I see 9000 range of DOW
September 30, 2008 - 01:05 ET by afuelwith the other positives of the dollar continuing to rise while oil is decreasing to $60 to $70 per barrel by years end.
Once the market decides on what the value is of their assests the capital will free up.
Bailout or No Bailout . . .
September 30, 2008 - 01:21 ET by DoktorFranken. . . . The "End of Year" market level will depend on who was elected President. If it's McCain then over 11000 (which ain't too bad). If it's Øbama then the market could go as low as 9000. Either way the market will be up in five years regardless.
The market has gone up in
September 30, 2008 - 06:00 ET by dmntd1The market has gone up in 95% of all five year periods and 100% of ten year periods. This will be no different.
Stocks are on sale right now. Hot market to buy, in ten years you'll look like a genius! They haven't been this affordable in some three years, and they're up about 10% over five years ago.
If that plasma television we want dropped 20%, I bet we'd buy it today! That will only go down in value. Buy your stocks now for long term investing (preferably through Mutual Funds, with good LONG TERM track records) and ten years from now, you'll have a pretty nice nest egg.....
(Gee, I sound like an infomercial!!! LOL)
"Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy." - Winston Churchill
Every body wait to see what
September 30, 2008 - 02:36 ET by Right2thePointEvery body wait to see what the Senate does.
Pelosi is following a pattern she has done since the Dems took power.
She does total over the top circus politics in the House and lets the Senate do the actual legislating.
What happened today is she saw that there was a slim chance the bill would pass on the basis of do something even if it's wrong and played her passion play blowup to kill the bill instead.
If it had passed she and the House would own the bill and she would have then had to resolve it in conference with the Senate version.
You need to step back and watch the bigger picture here and not get all tied up in the individual plays in the play book.
Amen, Right...
September 30, 2008 - 04:50 ET by BadassBuckeyeThe good ole pass the buck game.....and these people call themselves leaders......notice how i said they call themselves...
Here's the problem with letting the Senate take the lead
September 30, 2008 - 07:25 ET by c5thenI believe that the Constitution states that all funding bills MUST originate in the House. The bail-out bill or wall street give away is in it's essence a funding bill, so it must go thru the House first.
Oil Prices drop $10 a barrel after bailout gets voted down
September 30, 2008 - 07:40 ET by PopularTechOil plunges $10 as US bailout plan voted down (Associated Press)
If this is all hell breaking lose - bring it on!
Since when is the stock market a guaranteed investment?
September 30, 2008 - 08:04 ET by PopularTechMaybe I have lost my mind but the stockmarket is not some guaranteed investment, it is a risk and if you did not know that and invested money you could not live without you are an idiot.
Oh no I will not get no payment down credit and will have to put a down payment on a car. Oh no. People will not be able to afford loans for college! Guess what happens then? Lower enrollmen = lower college prices! Amazing how the market fixes itself.
»→ Now we're talking PT
September 30, 2008 - 08:24 ET by Cool ArrowPrices of services (especially) stand to be most influenced by this shrinking economy.
Were it not for this bailout nonsense, and the promise of a synthetic price floor, we'd be picking up moderate housing on the cheap.
But no matter, the bottom has to fall out sometime.
Happy to say I own a home. It's a house, second.
"I've got a bracelet too" - Barack Obama
Lower enrollmen = lower
September 30, 2008 - 08:41 ET by Roger the ShrubberLower enrollmen = lower college prices!
Really? Since when? Surely, not when you are speaking of a state school college system, at least. When did tuition EVER go down? It would be interesting to see that.
Besides the fact that State College are heavily Subsidized...
September 30, 2008 - 12:34 ET by PopularTechThat is part of the problem with State Colleges, most of the enrollment does not even pay anywhere near the real tuition price. This allows them to be inefficient.
Government intervention disorts market prices and puts value on inefficiency and malinvestment.
Once you see enrollment go down due to lack of access to loans they will have no choice but to cut expenses (many colleges are hugely inefficient) to lower tuition ... or go out of business. You will also see much more emphasis on community colleges.
BTW the one thing I have consistently seen is that where you got your degree is not as important as what degree you have. Obviously getting a degree from an accredited school makes a difference but so many times HR departments are clueless and do nothing more then match education level earned + experience to job position. Actually if you are in a field that places emphasis on the name of your college, you simply would need to do you post graduate work at one of those schools (if you can get in) and save thousands attending a state institution for your undergraduate degree.
The Great Bank Robbery of 2008
September 30, 2008 - 07:56 ET by PopularTechThe Great Bank Robbery of 2008 (Robert Murphy, Ph.D. Economics)
This is the biggest rip off I have ever seen and Bush keeps trying to scare people, unbelievable. Paulson is trying to save Goldman Sachs!
Bank of America: 'Paulson Plan Benefits Mostly Goldman, Morgan' (Seeking Alpha)
It's not about "the bailout", but "uncertainty"
September 30, 2008 - 07:59 ET by JohnMcGrewI do not think most people realize what the market is measuring. It is not reacting to "the bill" so much as it is reacting to uncertainty. Yes, if a bill is passed, the market will probably rise. However, if it were to be annouced that there were to be no bill, after a short period of time, it would also rise.
Business people (and I am one) like to have some idea of what the government is going to be doing in regards to regulation and taxation before they commit to long-term plans. At the moment, we have a pseudo-socialist running against a Marxist for President. Obama has promised punishing taxes and regulation, whereas McCain is promising to keep the Bush tax cuts intact. No smart businesperson is putting their $$$ on the line until that question is resolved.
It's much like how the economy stalled in '93-'94 until HillaryCare was destoryed. Once we had gridlock in Congress, business was free to move forward and the economy exploded.
We need more gridlock.
Confidence - Bush is driving the DOW into the ground
September 30, 2008 - 08:17 ET by PopularTechI must agree as it is amazing at how Bush is doing everything he can to drive the DOW into the ground. All the shrill Talking Heads are doing the same.
I am beginning to link everyone on TV who lost a ton of money in "investments" with panic. The whole CNBC staff who have been worthless on advice act like they might not have jobs in the future - LMAO. I just keep cracking up.
Nothing is funnier than the panic that McDonalds is going to go out of business because it cannot get loans, of please what a bunch of Bullshit. What bank would not loan to McDonalds? Hell I will loan money to McDonalds.
The upside to all of this is...
September 30, 2008 - 10:56 ET by JohnMcGrew...that many of “the masses” are finally seeing things for what they are. Even many liberals are conceding that the media is in the bag for Obama. The "fear industrial complex" may have finally succeeded in getting the recession they’ve been working on so hard for the last 18 months. And now it’s just getting silly, like “experts” claiming that McDonalds is in trouble because it can’t borrow money? Come on! Every single day, my mailbox is full of offers from banks to lend me tens-of-thousands of dollars UNSECURED!
The only people who are screwed are those who should not be lent money in the first place. No more no-doc no-down 100% home loans. No more trading in upside-down cars for new ones with 160% financing. No more fiscal stupidity because the government isn’t going to underwrite it anymore. This is a crisis? Only if you’re in the business of selling this crap.
Hey 1227 Are you
September 30, 2008 - 08:45 ET by AshmanHey 1227
Are you in VA? BB&T took over my bank years ago First Virginia Bank...
I agree wiht your meesage though..
"I am not a hunter, I am a whitetail deer population reduction specialist!!!
Liberalism is a mental disorder
No Bailout, please!
September 30, 2008 - 08:49 ET by Nicholas in MII voted for 10,000.
I just heard on TV (CBS Early Show) that we have a record Federal deficit of $11 Trillion - I'm not sure if that includes the $700 Billion Bailout or not, but either way. (Keep it in perspective: if it doesn't, then the bailout will make it $11.7 Trillion.)
Hypothetically - I KNOW this is NOT going to happen - suppose the Federal government completely stopped all spending, and paid off the $11 Trillion. I know that a lot of it is owed to foreigners (banks, governments, whoever), but a lot of it is owed to Americans, too.
The same piece on CBS mentioned that credit is the grease that keeps our economy going. I disagree - CASH keeps our economy going; credit is just one source of cash. (Don't think so? If you walk into a stockbroker's office right now and ask to buy 100 shares of XYZ Corp, will he care whether you're pulling $100 bills out of your mattress, or using a credit card?)
$1 Trillion is $1 Trillion, whether it comes from a "Bailout", or from fiscal responsibility in Washington, DC.
What we really need to do is cut government spending - especially Federal spending - let's start with earmarks for museums dedicated to the history of rock n roll and Ted Kennedy's Big Ditch - AND CUT TAXES!!!
About 50% is to itself.
September 30, 2008 - 09:34 ET by JWFAbout half of that, the government owes to itself. You know like when Social Security is in the black, congress went ahead and spent it and gave an iou to the SSA.
Sort of like you taking money out of your piggybank and leaving an iou to yourself. Silly but they do it so they can say oh we are not stealing ssa money.
Sincerely,
a Veteran of a 1000 psychic wars.
Have you guy's notice how
September 30, 2008 - 09:26 ET by obxrayHave you guy's notice how much of a socialist pig Bush has become.The repubs need to get their act together.Let the free market work.I just bought 800 shares of Dominion Resources Inc.I hope some of you do some FREE MARKET buying.McCain is blowing every damn chance he has to seperate the difference between him and the libs.
I coulda swore he was trying to prevent doomsday.
September 30, 2008 - 09:37 ET by JWFDude? You touting stock here?
Sincerely,
a Veteran of a 1000 psychic wars.
»→ JWF
September 30, 2008 - 09:45 ET by Cool ArrowI just checked it out.
woof woof
"I've got a bracelet too" - Barack Obama
It took a second to register woof woof.
September 30, 2008 - 10:04 ET by JWFAt least he is touting a single alphabet stock. Usually it is pink sheets in my email spams.
Sincerely,
a Veteran of a 1000 psychic wars.