Sam Stovall

Are you a little skeptical when an economist or a financial strategist appears in the MSM, warning for the worst?

A look back at the Dec. 25, 2006, “Where to Invest” issue of BusinessWeek gave us a measuring stick to see how frequently cited “experts” shaped up in 2007 – including New York Times regular Ian Shepherdson, Moody’s Economy.com economist Mark Zandi and Standard & Poor’s Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall.

BusinessWeek surveyed 80 investment strategists about where the stock market would be at the end of 2007, and 58 economists on where gross domestic product (GDP) would be at the end of 2007.

ABC anchor Charles Gibson twice pushed reluctant guest expert Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's, to agree that high oil prices and the housing “crisis” will soon lead to a recession. On Tuesday's World News, Gibson outlined: “So, the housing crisis, the Treasury Secretary says it's a significant risk to the economy, the Fed Chairman says it's a significant drag on the economy, we have oil prices over $80 a barrel. Sam, isn't that a classic formula for a recession?” Stovall replied that “what I think is encouraging investors is the pro-activeness of the Fed and government officials by making sure that they get ahead of the curve and fend off the recession.” But Gibson was undeterred from his pessimistic assumptions and pressed again about whether the economy is “really broad-based enough to endure this kind of oil price hike and this kind of housing crisis and not have a recession?” Stovall maintained that oil and housing have impacted the economy, yet “our feeling is we'll probably...get away unscathed.”