Open Thread: Gallup Poll Recalculates GOP Field
Gallup released a new poll this morning asking who GOP primary voters support sans Huckabee, Trump, and Daniels. And it turns out...the race for the GOP nomination is still very undecided, with almost everyone gaining a little more support. Check out some of the poll's findings below the break and give us your thoughts in the comments.
Mitt Romney (17%) and Sarah Palin (15%) now lead a smaller field of potential Republican presidential candidates in rank-and-file Republicans’ preferences for the party’s 2012 nominee. Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and Herman Cain essentially tie for third, with Cain registering 8%
While the field may have shifted, one of the biggest frontrunners is still Palin. Her candidacy is yet uncertain, and without any exploratory committee or formal declaration of candidacy, her departure from the race could shake up the field even more. Gallup tabulated the results without her candidacy, and found that her supporters also diverge to a number of different candidates.
Re-allocating Palin supporters’ votes to the candidate who is their second choice gives a sense of where current preferences would stand without Palin in the mix. Under this scenario, Romney leads with 19%, followed by Gingrich and Paul with 12% each.
Their previous poll on the GOP nomination race came more than a month ago. In it, Huckabee and Trump led with 16% each and Mitch Daniels had 3% support, adding up to 35% of respondents in April. With the departure of these three candidates, Romney picked up one point, Palin five points, Ron Paul four points, Newt Gingrich three points, and another three points for Tim Pawlenty. The only real significant move came from Herman Cain, from immeasurably small to 8%.
Perhaps most surprising is the room for yet another candidate to join the race.
The biggest gain in this poll besides Herman Cain’s eight-point jump was in None/No Opinion, which went from 14% to 22%. That outstrips all of the other candidates in the field, giving the impression that none of the current potential candidates has captured the imagination of primary voters at this time.
Who do you think could still shake up the GOP field? Do you forsee any late entries?