Skeptics
13% (631 votes)
Deniers
3% (161 votes)
Dissenters
2% (90 votes)
Climate Realists
78% (3791 votes)
Climate Optimists
4% (205 votes)
Total votes: 4878
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“Exposing & Combating Liberal Media Bias”
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What Should People That Don't Believe in Manmade Global Warming be Called?Skeptics 13% (631 votes) Deniers 3% (161 votes) Dissenters 2% (90 votes) Climate Realists 78% (3791 votes) Climate Optimists 4% (205 votes) Total votes: 4878 | |
Comments Policy
Aww where's the racist,
February 17, 2008 - 12:10 ET by wiwfAww where's the racist, bigot, homophobe, greedy, fake Christian, Republicanazi conservative option? :P
The Rocky Mountain Collegian: Illustrating Idiocy
The word is denier. It is
February 17, 2008 - 12:37 ET by Wildcatter1980The word is denier. It is what goes side by side with racist, bigot, homophobe, etc.
BTW-I 'm a registered Democrat.
Just my $0.02
Yes... denier is the correct
February 17, 2008 - 14:46 ET by River DogYes... denier is the correct word. Just like it says on the back of my car "Global Warming Denier". I also deny that the earth is flat... But i'm strange like that...
Noel
February 17, 2008 - 12:11 ET byyou left out four options
LUDDITES
ZOMBIES
NON-ALARMISTS
REALITY BASED
Supreme Court, National Security, Borders, Fiscal Restraint, my litmus test for President.
Noel - options?
February 17, 2008 - 12:26 ET by acaiguanaWell, my simple take on this is who really cares?
The climate will be the climate will be the climate. I haven't got the memo or the phone call from the climate asking what I really think I should be called.
If people unknown to me call me a 'denier' then I care enough to be insulted as to the implied relation to Nazi Germany.
But as far as the climate is concerned? Of course the agenda is transparent for those who want to destroy my capitalistic opportunities.
ACA
...
Chat Moderator
Quoted from: 'Acaiguana notes from the Underground' (Soon to be at theaters near you)
ACA
February 17, 2008 - 12:37 ET by Noel SheppardACA,
It's important because this is indeed a major issue today, and will be for some time to come. Our nation is divided on this issue, like so many, and as is typical of folks on the left, they're using pejoratives like "denier" to demonize those they disagree with.
I want to fight this, for as long as they can cast us in a negative light, it will be more difficult for us to get a contrary view to those either undecided or not firmly committed. Potentially in the years to come, we are going to see legislative proposals concerning this nonsense. As I posted yesterday, California is considering addressing AGW in science classes and texts.
With that in mind, this battle continues. And, our success in thwarting such legislation is dependent on how the public perceives the opposition; what we are called will impact this perception. Make sense? ns
Noel, well at least you have me talking.
February 17, 2008 - 13:13 ET by acaiguanaI agree with you. I was just being grouchy.
I have for a long time called these people neo-luddites. That sort of sums up my opinion of the pro-anthro warmers.
Of course the model stuff gets out of control real fast.
The media (which I believe you capture nicely below) is allowing the socialist motivated pro-government intervention (can we say taxation boys and girls?) groups to define the terms again.
As I get frustrated with the minutiae of the insanity, I tend to be more critical of debate within the community over these type of things.
If science is as I believe to be quite capable of standing the test of time then the test of time will destroy the AGW crowd.
However, as I started out - I agree that the California mess is only growing more messy. I am of course opposed to this attempt to indoctrinate our kids.
Nobody would argue the need for kids to be taught good conservation skills like John Muir, etc. But I would argue that like Democrat solutions to everything (education) - the corruption of our education system further by including this silliness is more of the same ol' same ol'.
Nice to talk to ya.
ACA
...
Chat Moderator
Quoted from: 'Acaiguana notes from the Underground' (Soon to be at theaters near you)
I want to fight this, for
February 17, 2008 - 14:36 ET by motherbeltI want to fight this, for as long as they can cast us in a negative
light, it will be more difficult for us to get a contrary view to those
either undecided or not firmly committed. -NS
And fight it we must, Noel. Who controls the language controls the argurment. And that is the first thing liberals do: try to control the language. They seek to marginalize those who disagree by painting them as a "fringe group" or some kind of "extremists." That way they seek to minimize the importance of input from those "aginners" (another example of their attempts at marginalization, that they recently used.)
Even more than a political football
February 17, 2008 - 20:12 ET by bbbossThis whole "manmade" global warming is being pushed worldwide by an inordinate number of politicians and media types particlarly from socialist leaning countries. This is about one thing and one thing only; American money...they want American money spread throughout the world and this duping of the general American public is what they have picked as the best way to go about this. And our own politicians and media have taken the proverbial bite right out of the bait.....I rank this international hoax as nearly as serious as terrorism.
Climate Realists
February 17, 2008 - 12:27 ET by Noel SheppardNBers,
This poll stems from a discussion here last evening that I wanted to open up for a larger debate.
The common term for a number of years has been skeptics. Unfortunately, this doesn't express what "non-believers" feel, for it's way too weak. Scientists all around the world that don't believe man is causing global warming, or that other factors are significantly more important to the equation, aren't merely skeptical. They have voluminous evidence to support their position WAY beyond mere skepticism.
As for "Deniers," this is indeed pejorative and insulting, for "facts" can be denied, while "theories" are merely disputed. As yet, NO ONE has proven that man is warming the globe. NO ONE. As such, "deniers" is an insult at best.
"Dissenters" to me is akin to "skeptics" inasmuch as it is too weak. It implies a minority viewpoint fighting an uphill battle. In the end, despite the media's position and what charlatans like Al Gore claim, the burden of proof is on the climate alarmists, and they have yet to prove anthropogenic global warming to be either real, or largely responsible for the slight increase in average global temperatures the past 150 years.
"Climate Realists" works very well for me, for it accurately defines the position, and does so in a positive fashion. Once again, despite the alarmists' claims, our view is the strong one for it is supported by centuries of research, and millennia of ice core samples.
"Climate Optimists" is what some of the scientists I correspond with on a daily basis prefer. Contrarily, they view believers as "climate pessimists."
Be advised that I have posed this question to several e-mail groups that I'm part of, and am very interested in feedback. ns
I'm convinced.
February 17, 2008 - 12:48 ET by dervishChange my vote from "skeptic" to "realist." It does sound a bit wimpy, even if accurate.
Interesting, Noel
February 17, 2008 - 12:51 ET by BlondeAnd in light of your response to ACA, I see exactly why you posed the choices you did.
You'll have to keep us posted as to the results of your e-mail queries as well.
Having said that, I'm going to go back and vote for "Climate Realists".
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
act fast
February 17, 2008 - 13:01 ET by mom_roxns - If you adopt 'climate realist', you in the media need to act quickly to publicize the definition so that Al Gore, et. al., do not co-opt that term. (They will insist that they are the 'realists', even though they do not have the scientific data to back up their claims.)
A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul.
- George Bernard Shaw, 1944
Realists
February 17, 2008 - 13:05 ET by masslibertarian"Climate Realists" works well to broadly describe those who do not subscribe to the views of "Climate Alarmists" like Al Gore and Jim Hansen.
I think you're absolutely right that the word used in the debate is important, and I think "Climate Realists" also denotes that our side is a big enough tent to include a broad spectrum of people, from those who believe the concept of AGW is the height of hubris to those who believe in AGW but think the developed world's committing economic suicide is the worst possible alternative to addressing it.
masslibertarian; I think U talked me into it.
February 17, 2008 - 19:24 ET by upcountrywaterAt first I felt, that "Climate Realists" was a squishy reaction to agw denier, however you won me over.
Regards,
An "Insurgent" on the Right.
So many words, so little time.
iranian uranium; iranian ICBM's iranian satellites..
Keep the change Bob. h/t Sam Peckinpah
I chose "skeptic" because
February 17, 2008 - 14:47 ET by tracheostomyI chose "skeptic" because liberals cannot fairly lay exclusive claim to the term. This the way they really want it BTW. "Journalists" in particular really consider that term their baby.
Nope, the sword cuts both ways.
If "skeptic" is good enough for other issues of consensus science, then it's good enough for AGW.
-PJ
"Trake: Your lofty convictions are another blemish on the rump of congregational sectarianism." -Tumbler 5/15/07
Skeptic
February 17, 2008 - 16:05 ET by doug1950Agree, the word "skeptic" still leaves one with at least an element of plausibility and wiggle room. A skeptic is someone who may not be yet convinced. I, for example, just flatly do not beleive man is the cause of climate changes.
Climate Constants
February 17, 2008 - 12:29 ET by CobraManSome people seem to forget that the only thing constant about the climate is that it keeps changing. Why some people think that the climate is a closed, static system that is greatly influenced by mankind is beyond me. Since when has mankind EVER had that much control over our environment? We can't even affect or control LOCAL weather patterns, so just how are we suppose to affect and control GLOBAL weather patterns and change the climate, ether in the long term or the short term? Every attempt to date has failed. Nothing we do has a measurable effect. Nature has this annoying tendency of showing us just how insignifigent we really are.
Very true, I am always
February 17, 2008 - 12:56 ET by general companyVery true, I am always amused by the fact that global warmest seem to think they can control the weather. I am however all for cleaning up and keeping our planet clean, but contoling the weather, that is just plain stupid.
BTW, how many other topics is CA teaching their children that either isnt true, or is against the values of the parents? Same idiots making these decisions either don't have kids (or cant/gay) or send them to privets schools that are not obligated to teach this nonsense.
"Always do right. This will gratify some people, and astonish the rest". Mark Twain
general company... I
February 17, 2008 - 13:08 ET by Clear thinkergeneral company...
I recently had a face to face conversation with a young couple that had just moved to my area of NC. The conversation was civil enough but it became clear to me that these people were either from another Galaxy or California. My second choice turned out to be the case.
Set the GOP back on the right course. http://gopteaparty.com/
I kow what you mean
February 17, 2008 - 14:01 ET by general companyI live in Louisiana and work for a prominent University in CA, so I work with a lot of folks from CA, most are great people. You are right about some of them though, but one of the joys of my life, is popping all of those little bubbles so many of them carry around.
"Always do right. This will gratify some people, and astonish the rest". Mark Twain
WOW CT
February 17, 2008 - 14:10 ET by DEVILDOCMOMAren't you happy? Now you can be saved...snicker.
My thoughts are that many in
February 17, 2008 - 13:14 ET by Wildcatter1980My thoughts are that many in the warm-monger side of the debate know what "climate" is about, but could care less. They have alternate hidden agendas at work. Those hidden agendas include one or more of the following:
Just my $0.02
Oh! THAT'S a real gem!
February 17, 2008 - 14:49 ET by tracheostomy"Warm-monger." LOL! I freakin' LOVE IT!!!
-PJ
"Trake: Your lofty convictions are another blemish on the rump of congregational sectarianism." -Tumbler 5/15/07
Wheres Blonde, she collects these " gem things" LMAO
February 17, 2008 - 19:28 ET by upcountrywateriranian uranium; iranian ICBM's iranian satellites..
Keep the change Bob. h/t Sam Peckinpah
the
February 17, 2008 - 19:30 ET byNoel Sheppard turn of phrase award ----IIRC
Supreme Court, National Security, Borders, Fiscal Restraint, my litmus test for President.
Wild
February 18, 2008 - 09:19 ET by ahusserTo me you hit the nail on the head with your analysis.
I firmly believe, however, that your points mostly are symptoms of their extreme self-loathing and hatred of "MAN" and "MANKIND". If you notice their "propaganda" is heavily laden with concepts of purification and cleansing. If "MAN" wasn't around then the air and water would be pure. Mother Earth would be safe. In it's most extreme manifestations of power they purify and cleanse their own ala Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, Maoist China, Cambodia etc. Of course, they, the elect would be appointed and annointed in being the caretaker of the remainder. I firmly believe they wish the demise of 90 per cent of us so they can live, like pre discovery "native americans" in peace and harmony with nature. A delusional hallucinatory utopia.
CobraMan
February 17, 2008 - 15:19 ET by lotrAtmospheric scientists understand this quite well -- the atmosphere and ocean are dynamic systems. "Climatology" is the study of the mean state of the atmosphere/ocean systems, both in terms of space and time. Climatological timescales are decades (as opposed to diurnal, seasonal or interannual) -- changes over decades are of concern to us (mankind) because they can impact societies. A society becomes accustomed to a certain climate, so that when changes occur, the society may be impacted.
It's not a matter of "control" -- indeed, we have no control at all over things. However, humans do have a measureable effect, not only because of our numbers, but also because of our industry.
Again, the following link is to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA) website, discussing the measured incease in atmospheric CO2, a predominate greenhouse gas. CO2 is a byproduct of combustion, which is currently going on at a mind-boggling rate, 24/7/365.
NOAA: Longest Continuous Record of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/datasets/mauna/welcome.html#record
What effect?
February 17, 2008 - 16:32 ET by CobraManWe humans have been trying to affect the climate for several
generations yet we are unable to even predict what the climate will be
next year, let alone change it. Just how much of an affect do we REALLY
have, as opposed to an assumed affect? Why don’t our scientific
predictions match real world data? Could it be that our basic
assumptions are wrong and that we really don’t have as great an affect
as we, especially the scientists, like to believe?
The NOAA scientists are using assumptions and models that don't match real world observations, so how can anything they say be considered correct? These are the same scientists who predicted an increase in the number and veracity of Hurricanes for the last two years, yet nature refuses to follow their predictions. That reality severely reduces their credibility, in my opinion.
Also, plant life is dependent upon CO2 and the amount of plant growth is directly depended upon atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Since the amount of CO2 plants absorb and covert to mass is proportional to the concentrations of atmospheric CO2, it is obvious to anyone that the system is self-correcting and that short term increases in CO2 will be contradicted by short-term increases in plant growth and mass.
Life, especially plant life, likes a warm environment. Most of the coal and oil deposits we use for fuel were deposited when the global temperature was several degrees higher then it is today. The large animals, the massive forests, and the explosion of live that followed were all preceded by an increase in global temperature. So, how can a similar increase in global temperatures today be considered bad?
As far as societies becoming dependent upon certain environmental factors and society in general will be destroyed if these conditions change; that’s a false assumption as we, by our very nature, are very adaptable creatures. Those who do not adapt to a changing environment will die, while those who do will live and produce descendents. That’s called evolution and it is the natural state of life on earth.
As a matter of fact, history has shown us again and again that environmental change was the catalyst that produced the greatest advancements in human society. So, if environmental change was good for humanity in the past, why shouldn't a similar change be just as good for us today? Has human nature changed to the extent that we are completely dependent upon a changeless environment? If, so, then we really are a doomed species.
The basic truth is that we have no idea what the future will bring to us concerning the environment and its affect on humanity. It's foolish to insist that we do and that we can actually predict and affect environmental conditions. We're not gods and we need to stop acting like we are. A false belief in our superiority over nature is the true danger, not the environment. Just ask the Romans about that.
First off, note that there
February 17, 2008 - 22:06 ET by lotrFirst off, note that there is a fundamental difference between predicting, say, whether or not a tornado will hit in a certain location, or whether or not this winter will be warmer/colder/drier/moister, and that predicting what the mean equilibrium temperature of Earth will be given known forcings. Of course, that doesn't mean climate models aren't without errors/limitations/flaws. But to my knowledge, all models, based upon known classical physics, predict a warming, and the warming is pretty darn consistent with what we are currently observing. While there are some scientists (whom I know) who are skeptics, these are falling more and more into a minority.
Secondly, while we (humans) are "puny" no doubt, the fact is our industry is not without a "footprint." In the case of fossil fuel combustion, the footprint is mindboggling quantities of CO2. The increase in atmospheric CO2, a measured trend spanning 5 decades, is a direct consequence. CO2, unlike H2O, has a long residence time (as in centuries).
Thirdly, I can't say that I would strongly disagree with anything you said about increased CO2, warmer climates, etc. not necessarily being bad things. That's where I think the policy debate should lie -- does any of this warrant draconian measures on our part? Right now I say no, it does not. You are right that we don't know for absolute sure yet whether trends will continue (although we have good reason to believe that they will) -- does this mean we need to commit to reductions in emissions when that may deeply impact our standard of living? Again, I would argue against that. I, like probably everyone here, enjoys our standard of living, and I believe that people (the world over) come first, not the "Earth Mother." Note these are conservative principles, ones that I would say the majority of Americans would still be in agreement with.
I would agree with the Roman analogy, except I would say it is more about our neo-paganism, materialism, hedonism, etc., not our climate science.
Not quite ...
February 17, 2008 - 23:02 ET by masslibertarianLOTR, I always read your stuff and try to keep an open mind, but I can't let the following quote pass without comment:
But to my knowledge, all models, based upon known classical physics, predict a warming, and the warming is pretty darn consistent with what we are currently observing.
The models you refer to were tweaked to roughly match recent observations, so of course they're "consistent." They haven't been successful at predicting anything. They are PlayStation Climatology and are not based purely on "known classical physics" - unless you care to provide us with the "earth equation."
For chrissakes, even the modelers admit they don't treat clouds properly. It occurs to me that clouds - you know, the kind made of water vapor, the most prevalent greenhouse gas in the atmosphere by several orders of magnitude - might ought to be handled properly by climate models before we take their output seriously enough to commit economic suicide.
As Douglass, Christy, Pearson and Singer recently highlighted, climate models may correctly align with the macro warming trend, but they get there by showing a pronounced warming of the tropical troposphere which is not present in real-world observations.
Saying that the models are consistent with observed warming is at best a half-truth.
Sorry for the rant. Please don't take it personally. I just believe we're placing way too much faith in garbage-in, garbage-out climate models run by weenies in air-conditioned rooms who don't spend enough time out in the sun observing the real world (yes, Jim and Gavin, I'm thinking of you).
Computer Models are worse than that
February 18, 2008 - 01:51 ET by PopularTechIt is not good enough for a model to get close, they must be exact. If anything is off at all then the model is flawed period. And I mean anything. That is the way computers work. But it is not just exact by answer but by process and you CANNOT PROVE THE PROCESS IS CORRECT ON THE MODELS! Even if they match the real climate that does not prove they are reaching the results based on what happens in the real world. I will give a simple example as to why.
Say the model is programmed so increased CO2 gives an increased warming of 1 degree over one hundred years. How you get to that number can be calculated in an infinite amount of incorrect ways but get the same result. A very basic example:
Say +100-99 = +1, or +1000-999 = +1 or +10000-9999 = +1, all equal +1 and you can do this forever but which PROCESS is correct? You cannot prove this on a model.
The models are MEANINGLESS!
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
Here is some of the
February 18, 2008 - 02:16 ET by RESTLESS 1Here is some of the problems with computer models.
"Professor", you really should read past the first page.
"Chapter 5: Recommendations
1. Separate the uncertainties in climate forcings from uncertainties in the climate
response to forcings.
The simulations of 20th century (20CEN) climate analyzed here show climate responses
that differ because of differences in:
• Model physics and resolution;
• The forcings incorporated in the 20CEN experiment;
• The chosen forcing history, and the manner in which a specific forcing was applied.
• Model initial conditions.
We consider it a priority to partition the uncertainties in climate forcings and model
responses, and thus improve our ability to interpret differences between models and
observations. This could be achieved by better coordination of experimental design,
particularly for the 20CEN simulations that are most relevant for direct comparison
with observations.
2. Quantify the contributions of changes in black carbon aerosols and land use/land cover
to recent large-scale temperature changes.
We currently lack experiments in which the effects of black carbon aerosols and LULC
are varied individually (while holding other forcings constant). Such “single forcing” runs
will help to quantify the contributions of these forcings to global-scale changes in lapse
rates.
3. Explicitly consider model and observational uncertainty.
Efforts to evaluate model performance or identify human-induced climate change
should always account for uncertainties in both observations and in model simulations
of historical and future climate. This is particularly important for comparisons involving
long-term changes in upper-air temperatures. It is here that current observational
uncertainties are largest and require better quantification.
4. Perform the “next generation” of detection and attribution studies.
Formal detection and attribution studies utilizing the new generation of model and observational
data sets detailed herein should be undertaken as a matter of priority."
"In Chapter 5, we seek to explain and reconcile
the apparently disparate estimates of observed
changes in surface and tropospheric temperatures.
We make extensive use of computer
models of the climate system. In the real world,
multiple “climate forcings” vary simultaneously,
and it is difficult to identify and separate the
climate effects of individual factors. Furthermore,
the experiment that we are performing
with the Earth’s climate system lacks a suitable
control – we do not have a convenient “parallel
Earth” on which there are no human-induced
changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, or other
climate forcings. Climate models can be used
to perform such controlled experiments, or to
simulate the response to changes in a single
forcing or combination of forcings, and thus
have real advantages for studying cause-effect
relationships. However, models also have
systematic errors that can diminish their usefulness
as a tool for interpretation of observations"
"This “noise reduction” aspect of AMIP runs
has been exploited in efforts to identify human
effects on year-to-year changes in atmospheric
temperatures (Folland et al., 1998; Sexton et
al., 2001) and volcanic influences on surface air
temperature (Mao and Robock, 1998).
One disadvantage of the AMIP experimental
set-up is that significant errors in one or more
of the applied forcing factors (or omission of
key forcings) are not “felt” by the prescribed
SSTs. Such errors are more obvious in a CGCM
experiment, where the ocean surface is free to
respond to imposed forcings. The lack of an
ocean response, combined with the masking
effects of natural variability, make it difficult
to use an AMIP-style experiment to estimate
the slow response of the climate system to an
imposed forcing change ."
"The CGCM experiments of interest here involve
a model that has been “spun-up” until it reaches
some quasi-steady climate state . The CGCM
is then run with estimates of how a variety of
natural and human-caused climate forcings
have changed over the 20th century. We refer
to these subsequently as “20CEN” experiments.
Since the true state of the climate system is
never fully known, the same forcing changes
are applied n times, each time starting from
a slightly different initial climate state. This
procedure yields n different realizations of climate
change. All of these realizations contain
some underlying “signal” (the climate response
to the imposed forcing changes) upon which
are superimposed n different manifestations
of “noise” (natural internal climate variability).
Taking averages over these n realizations yields
less noisy estimates of the signal (Wigley et
al., 2005a).
In a CGCM, ocean temperatures are fully predicted
rather than prescribed. This means that
even a (hypothetical) CGCM which perfectly
captured all important aspects of ENSO physics
would not have the same timing of El Niño
and La Niña events as the real world (except by
chance). The fact that ENSO variability – and
its effects on surface and atmospheric temperatures
– does not “line up in time” in observations
and CGCM experiments hampers direct
comparisons between the two ."
"This does not diminish the
importance of other climate forcings, whose
global-scale contributions to “differential
warming” have not been reliably quantified
to date.
Examples of these “other forcings” include
carbon-containing aerosols produced during
fossil fuel or biomass combustion, human-induced
changes in land surface properties, and
the indirect effects of tropospheric aerosols on
cloud properties."
Source
Seems that there are plusses and minusses in all computer models, but like Pop Tech said, any minusses and the models are junk.
RESTLESS
February 18, 2008 - 16:31 ET by lotrI appreciate the link to the free online textbook -- I think I will be downloading all the chapters for my own reference. I noticed that you cut and paste some excerpts from one of the chapters. In all this material, I find nothing whatsoever that supports the one sentence conclusion you arrived at.
I did, however, notice the following text at the start of Chapter 3:
Observed Changes - Surface
Globally, as well as in the tropics, the temperature of the air near the Earth’s surface has increased since 1958, with a greater rate of increase since 1979. All three surface temperature data sets are consistent in these conclusions.
• Globally, temperature increased at a rate of about 0.12ºC per decade since 1958, and about 0.16ºC per decade since 1979.
• In the tropics, temperature increased at a rate of about 0.11ºC per decade since 1958, and about 0.13ºC per decade since 1979.
• Most, if not all of the surface temperature increase since 1958 occured starting around the mid-1970s, a time coincident with a previously identified abrupt climate shift. However, there does not appear to be an abrupt rise in temperature at this time, rather the major part of the rise seems to occur in a more gradual fashion.
I'll agree that any physical model is worthless if it churns out results that don't jive with observations. However I have yet to stumble upon any smoking guns showing this about climate models.
Really?
February 19, 2008 - 14:11 ET by RESTLESS 1I guess what I am getting at, and what the summary attempts to tackle, is that the models are only as good as which forcings are chosen to be use on a particular program, and the values assigned the these forcings. There seems to be some inconsistency between the observational data and the computer models. For example, more "single forcing" runs are needed to better project effects on the climate.
Also, the different systems have strengths and weaknesses within each that cast doubt on certain results. All of these issues need to be addressed, and that is what the summary above is about.
All I am really saying is that I don't see any evidence that the computer models are accurate enough, with enough bugs worked out, to spend millions, billions, or maybe more on drastic proposals to mitigate climate change that may not work anyway. I've seen you post that you are not for spending this kind of capatal as yet also. If the science used to predict temps. is faulty, how can the science be settled. I know you are not saying it is settled, but the post above was from a thread where that was the claim.
I have no major
February 19, 2008 - 16:29 ET by lotrI have no major disagreements about anything you just said -- in no way do I suggest that the models are flawless; however I do contend that they represent the best of our ability to understand and predict climate behavior. Even if I knew that the models were perfect, I can still say that I would be against any candidate who proposes draconian measures to curb greenhouse gases without having a plan to mitigate the economic impact (i.e., the impact on people's lives).
lotr
February 19, 2008 - 18:59 ET by RESTLESS 1The way I figure it, we agree more than we disagree. The science of this stuff probably makes more sense to you. It just stretches credibility in my mind that humans have nearly as big an influence on the climate that the alarmists would suggest.
RESTLESS - yep
February 20, 2008 - 10:36 ET by lotrFor what it's worth, I refuse to watch Al Gore's "academy award winning" movie (I'm becoming a bit of a prude as I don't watch much of anything from Hollywood these days), so I'm not sure what sort of alarmist stuff he's proposing. In the grand scheme of things, our industrial combustion doesn't have that big an influence. It's not like carbon is foreign to this planet -- life will continue to thrive, including human life, and the excess CO2 will eventually make its way back into the biosphere. But that doesn't mean there are no short-term impacts whatsoever -- our industry has come to the point where it leaves a "footprint," and it's good to be cognizant of that.
massliberatarian
February 18, 2008 - 12:30 ET by lotrVery glad to hear you have an open mind. I always broach this subject with a certain degree of trepidation here, knowing full well I will likely draw the ire of various individuals.
There is not "earth equation" -- there are, however, a known set of of so-called state equations that do in fact provide an exact (quantitative) description of the dynamics and thermodynamics. Most of it is classical physics (conservation of mass, energy and momentum; ideal gas law; hydrostatics; cloud microphysics; etc.), although not all of it -- radiation obviously draws upon quantum theory. I cannot emphasize enough that these models represent the very best of our capacity to understand the behavior of the real atmosphere. Everything else, to some degree or another, requires various degrees of handwaving.
You are correct that one of the current limitations to these models is their ability to treat clouds. They don't ignore them altogehter, but they do rely on parameterizations. Regarding clouds, however, these have the capacity of acting as positive or negative feedbacks. Lower level water clouds have high albedo and act as negative feedback (cooling mechanism). However, high level ice clouds can act more as a positive feedback (warming) due to their absorption of upwelling infrared radiation. Again, I am not a climate specialist -- this is stuff I learned in graduate level paleoclimate.
Don't worry -- you didn't get personal, so there's nothing to take personal. And one other thing -- I am more of an empiricist -- models are fine and dandy, but they are not the real world. But they do represent our best understanding of the real world, and I know the measurements show a long-term warming trend.
Best Guess is NOT Good Enough with Computer Modeling
February 18, 2008 - 14:16 ET by PopularTechANY "guess" makes your model irrelevant. Can you not comprehend this? Computers do not fill in the blanks for you, they compute what you put into them which includes who knows how many Fortran compiled errors in addition to the "guesses" and made up computations.
"Feedbacks" are made up processes. If you are scripting made up processes on top of guesses you get more junk. It doesn't matter what you think clouds do, it only matters what they actually do and until you understand that 100% you cannot simulate them.
Models based on crap getting ANY result is MEANINGLESS.
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
You have absolutely no understanding of Computer Models
February 18, 2008 - 01:42 ET by PopularTechComputer Illiterates frequently make this bogus claim that climate prediction is different than weather. No it is not. They are based on the same incomplete Climate Physics, biased data and worthless models. It is simply a matter of resolution and scale. People like you are dangerous because you keep lying about it and computer illiterates keep believing it.
There are no close enough guesses with computers, this is something computer illiterates will never understand. If everything is not 100% understood with 100% correct data then the results are absolutely worthless, that is the way computers work and that is why weather prediction outside of a 1 day or so is so worthless. This makes climate prediction by a huge factor even more worthless yet because they now have nice looking colored graphics and run on multi-million dollar computers you fools fall for them. This is the biggest scam I have ever seen in my life.
Please leave the computer models to computer scientists and those who actually understand what computers can and cannot do.
There are no known "forcings", forcings is a bogus computer generated term that cannot be measured in the real world. Some natural scientist's script giving a result on a computer does not mean that is how it works in the real world.
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
PopTech
February 18, 2008 - 11:58 ET by lotrTwo (Latin) words for you: Ad hominem
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem
I don't know where to start. Ever since the invention of FORTRAN in the late 1950s, scientists and engineers have used computers to quantitatively simulate physical reality. I'll give you one thing: I am not a computer scientist, never claimed to be, don't wanna be one. Thank God for high level languages.
Obviously you are not a Computer Scientist
February 18, 2008 - 14:17 ET by PopularTechSince you have no concept of how they work or what is possible to retrieve from them.
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
Christians
February 17, 2008 - 12:32 ET by Lame CherryThat about sums it up. The same persecutions which have driven Christians across the world from Rome, the Sanhedrin to the globalist ilk all are world governments attempting to dislodge the free peoples and enslave them.
Stoning, burning at the stake used to be the practice, but now they use laws to criminalize a free people who will not be enslaved.
*HIC IACET ARTORIVS REX QVONDAM REXQVE FVTVRVS
Precisely
February 17, 2008 - 13:23 ET by sentforth5I was also looking for:
Super Geniuses
But I didn't see that option!
I wish you had included a
February 17, 2008 - 12:39 ET by Clear thinkerI wish you had included a choice for "Normal".
Set the GOP back on the right course. http://gopteaparty.com/
how about
February 17, 2008 - 12:55 ET by soosansmart
I like that better than
February 17, 2008 - 13:01 ET by Clear thinkerI like that better than mine.
Set the GOP back on the right course. http://gopteaparty.com/
Actually, people that don't
February 17, 2008 - 12:42 ET by riff_raffActually, people that don't believe human activity is the cause for "global warming" should be referred to as scientists.
Climatic Non-gullibles.
February 17, 2008 - 12:48 ET by GregEClimatic Non-gullibles.
But seriously, there really isn't a term to be used. Anyone with a different interpretation of the same set of data is simply someone with a different interpretation of the same set of data. I don't really think there should be a word for those who don't look at global warming as a human-induced or human-assisted phenomena.
But of course words/phrases are used, and when it's the media or anyone who is of the global warming acceptance group, those who disagree with global warming are implied to be deniers of a forgone conclusion and implied to have an agenda. In summary, implied to be trying to allow the world to be destroyed.
Call William Safire
February 17, 2008 - 12:44 ET by mom_roxSeriously, I think this would make a great Safire article.
Unfortunately, these nouns do not roll off the tongue, but disavowers and repudiators come to mind.
A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul. - George Bernard Shaw, 1944
I like 'dissenters', it has
February 17, 2008 - 12:48 ET by LighthouseJI like 'dissenters', it has a communist-like feel.
"Boats are safe in the harbor, but that's not what they're made for." -- Maritime quote
Solists ;^ )
February 17, 2008 - 12:48 ET bysince i believe the Sun (sol) and it's natural cycles holds the greatest impact on global temperatures
Supreme Court, National Security, Borders, Fiscal Restraint, my litmus test for President.
"Realist" - I Love It
February 17, 2008 - 12:54 ET by zeestephenWay to go, NewsBusters - I'm always searching for political shorthand that accurately and memorably labels my principles - "Climate Realist" does it for me.
Realist
February 17, 2008 - 12:55 ET by catnamedjakeApologies if this sounds too glib, but how about sane? Al Gore has always appeared to me to be crazy. And I don't mean just because I don't agree with the Global warming, look at his eyes.....
Sane
February 17, 2008 - 19:34 ET by Republican_by_DefaultIt wasn't in the list, but I agree, it's the most accurate.
No more Chicken Little.
Since "normal" was not among the choices, I chose skeptic.
February 17, 2008 - 13:09 ET by R D HelmTo me, skeptic has historically been the term applied to those who resist the trendy, pop-culture movement of the moment, and this is what I see the "climate change" farce to be. Climate realist, while accurate, is a bit clumsy and a little to PCish for my taste.
I remember being taught in middle school in the late seventies that scientists were sure we were headed for another ice age (though I do not recall its adherents threatening the livelihoods and even the freedom of those who dissented from what was the "conventional wisdom" of the day). If we didn't wind up freezing and/or starving to death, then the killer bees were going to invade our country and kill us all.
I have long since lost track of the myriad of calamities that we were all told were going to come to pass by the year 2000. The year came and went , and we are still here. I didn't buy any of their predictions then, nor do I buy them now.
I guess that makes me a skeptic, and I am just fine with that.
_____________________________
There is, however, one danger today that didn't exist in the seventies, and that is the type of people who are promoting the idea of "climate change." Unlike most of the "ice-agers" of the seventies, the climate change crowd is essentially made up of frustrated, hard-core socialists who are promoting this irrational fear as a vehicle to advance their Marxist agenda. Notice carefully how they never really complain about the environmental damage going on in places such as China, Russia and Mexico. This makes them a very real threat to our freedoms here in America, as we seem to be the sole target of their angst.
After all, Bill Clinton himself said we have to "slow down" our economy to help the environment. If that statement alone doesn't convince you of their actual motivations in all this, then I don't know what will.
intelligent
February 17, 2008 - 13:14 ET by lunaticcringeradioas opposed to the anti capitalist socialist used car salesmen who perpetuate the global warming lie, on the stooopid, ignorant, almost superstitious, suckers who buy this pile of dog squeeze.
lunaticcringeradio
Noel
February 17, 2008 - 13:19 ET byDo we get a poll on what the proponents of AGW should be called?
ALARMISTS
CHICKEN LITTLES
WARMERS
CLIMATE CHANGEISTS
REALISTS
HYPOCRITES
Supreme Court, National Security, Borders, Fiscal Restraint, my litmus test for President.
B
February 17, 2008 - 13:26 ET by Noel SheppardB,
Yes. I'll do that either later this evening, or tomorrow. You'll be interested to know that the scientists I communicate with are very interested in that question as well. Although "climate alarmists" says it, many feel that like "deniers," it's too negative.
One scientist -- waiting permission to give his name -- feels "climate pessimists" is the answer. However, I, too, am concerned that this is too negative.
With that in mind, hold your thoughts, and we'll do a follow-up poll later -- especially since I now know how to do these polls! :-) ns
i forgot changelings
February 17, 2008 - 13:29 ET byi forgot changelings
Noel
February 17, 2008 - 23:48 ET by wiley catMore suggestions:
FEAR-MONGERS
THE REDEFINERS
POP "SCIENTISTS"
PSEUDO-SCIENTISTS
GLOBAL HARMISTS
WARHOL-Y SCIENCE
MAN-MADE CRISIS FACTORIES
CARBON-LESS MINDS
MIND POLLUTERS
Skeptics is fine by me
February 17, 2008 - 13:49 ET by PopularTechI have no problem with being called a Skeptic which I am of everything not proven.
I have been debating this for over a year not just here and there is one unmistakeable trend. That is the consistent initial launch of personal attacks by calling anyone skeptical a 'denier' followed by large amounts of empty unverified statements and declaring the IPCC and RealClimate.org gods.
I have no problem calling them what they are which is Alarmists or Propagandists.
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
S. Fred Singer
February 17, 2008 - 14:23 ET by Noel SheppardNBers,
I've received permission from S. Fred Singer to share his comments on this subject:
This is a key point that folks on the left continually ignore: climate realists don't dispute that average temperatures have risen in the past 150 -- although we believe the amount of the rise is very much up for debate given the faulty nature of the data collection and the equipment. However, what we definitely dispute is man's role in this increase, and what man can do to halt it assuming we want to. ns
Joe Daleo
February 17, 2008 - 14:50 ET by Noel SheppardNBers,
Here are ICECAP Joe Daleo's thoughts (with permission):
Roy Spencer
February 17, 2008 - 15:35 ET by Noel SheppardNBers,
Here's Roy Spencer's (U-Alabama, Huntsville) views (with permission):
Maybe we can get Dick
February 17, 2008 - 17:18 ET by bigtimerMaybe we can get Dick Morris to start following this on a daily basis. ;)
ROFLMAO!
Bob Carter
February 17, 2008 - 18:41 ET by Noel SheppardBob Carter of James Cook University in Australia added (with permission):
MIT's Richard Lindzen
February 17, 2008 - 18:44 ET by Noel SheppardMIT's Richard Lindzen offered (with permission):
Dr. Walter Starck
February 17, 2008 - 20:43 ET by Noel SheppardDr. Walter Starck offered a different idea for us: