On Monday, NewsBusters exposed some serious problems at a number of temperature data-collection facilities around the country.
On Tuesday, Christopher C. Horner, Senior Fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute and author of the New York Times bestseller “The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming and Environmentalism,” shared information with NewsBusters concerning two additional problematic weather stations:
Jim Manzi [of National Review’s Planet Gore] recently posted on the problems encountered when experts undertook even a cursory examination of the U.S.'s surface temperature measuring stations, which are the world's most reliable...a sobering thought for reasons we all shall soon see.
Horner continued:
Consider the below exemplar of those wonders of science and technology in the field of obtaining surface temperature measurements, from Hopkinsville, KY, where the instrument: a) abuts a brick house: b) actually, it abuts the chimney of a brick house; c) hovers just above a black asphalt pad, and; d) what's that directly underneath it, but a Weber grill!
Absolutely brilliant.
There is a large green garbage receptacle just off to the left, in the photo, which is where I suggest the instrument might better lie.
Next time you hear of a heat wave in Hopkinsville, KY, you might wander over to grab a burger. More likely than not the boys are just having a cookout.
This is not yet up on SurfaceStations, but based on other station photos which I've seen this isn't all that aberrant, or rather is so only as a matter of degree
Horner wasn’t done, for the following picture is of a weather station somewhere in Colorado:
Horner pointed out:
Here, the weather station was placed 2 feet off of a building, but conveniently next to a large air conditioning unit. Any thoughts on the localized ambient temperature when that baby kicks on?
Horner concluded:
The folks at ClimateAudit have detected that our alarmist friends are aware, and already preparing for this story to get some legs. Our schools may be in pretty rough shape, but not that rough that this corruption of the surface data will go unnoticed.
Of course, the question still remains: When will the mainstream media investigate and report this, or will this issue continue to be one only examined in the blogosphere?
Stay tuned.
—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters.
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gee whiz Noel
June 19, 2007 - 14:58 ET by Gary HallGee whiz Noel. All this time I've put faith in that little button on my dash, "ambient temperature," which is telling me as I sit in my car, gridlocked in traffic on a steaming hot asphalt roadway, that the temperature is 95 degrees, right here in Santa Monica on a spring day. (;~> gary
In addition, that black asp
June 19, 2007 - 15:00 ET by Dave in TexasIn addition, that black aspalt pad in the Hopkinsville picture looks suspiciously like something you would park a vehicle on. Of course I'm sure a parked car, with its windows rolled up on a sunny day couldn't possibly affect the temperature around it though.
This will surely attract the attention of Throatwobbly
June 19, 2007 - 15:05 ET by RJThis thread will surely attract the attention of Throatwobbly, who will tell us benighted souls that each and every one of these "anomalys" are "adjusted" for....."move along, folks. Nothing to see here", says Wobbly...
I can just hear the anomally
June 19, 2007 - 15:18 ET by dscottI can just hear the anomally explaination now. We deduct 25 to 30F in the summer since air cooled condensers for air conditioners typically put off 100 to 120F air temperature at 95F ambient... blah, blah, blah, then we look at the intervals between hot cycles to deduce the proper correction factor, more techno babble, blah, blah, blah... Presto! We have a temperature reading we can trust down to the tenth of a degree.
Aren't we really smart??? You should trust us because we can so cleverly manipulate the numbers that we must know what we are doing...
“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” – Marcus Aurelius
Dan
June 19, 2007 - 15:26 ET by Noel SheppardDan,
Exactly. As an economist and a statistics freak, I can tell you with great certainty that one can prove anything one wants with adjustments for anomalies.
Yet, even that is irrelevant to a certain extent. After all, it shouldn't be difficult to put these weather stations on grass and 100 feet from a building or structure per guideline. Why would one create such a problem, and then accept it by manipulating the data with an anomaly adjustment? It's just absurd, and adds to the lack of confidence one should have in the data.
As you are well aware, real scientists go to great lengths to obtain "pure data" that is "uncorrupted." How could anyone in their right mind feel comfortable with temperature data being obtained from such weather stations that needs to be adjusted because of the condition of said stations?
It absolutely defies reason despite the protestations of those bowing at the altar of Al Gore! :-) ns
How could anyone in their rig
June 19, 2007 - 15:46 ET by dscottHow could anyone in their right mind feel comfortable with temperature data being obtained from such weather stations that needs to be adjusted because of the condition of said stations?
You mean anyone in their left mind? Because no one on the Right concerned with the facts/data would be making such an obviously ridiculous mistake. snicker, snicker Which goes back to my comment to TW on your previous thread, IMO, it is a deliberate oversight.
“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” – Marcus Aurelius
Dscott
June 19, 2007 - 16:09 ET by Noel SheppardDan,
Well, on the one hand, if it is intentional, basically they've created a situation whereby the data is obviously skewed higher, and we have to have faith that their adjustments completely compensate for the skew. Are you confident that's the case?
Furthemore, what the alarmists don't realize is that it is exactly these kinds of imprecisions which make folks like us skeptical. Take for example the two weather stations in Marysville and Orland presented yesterday. The one in Orland which is properly situated in the middle of a field on grass with no structures near it showed very little change in mean temperature in the past 90 years or so.
Yet, the one in Marysville, situated on asphalt next to a building and a parking lot and a cell tower and an air conditioner has shown a dramatic rise in temperature during the same period -- from just 50 miles away.
Yet, the alarmists want us to believe that they have created a statistical model which compensates for the anomalous data emanating from Marysville thereby giving a true reading. Why not put the station in Marysville in the middle of a field like the one in Orland rather than what was done so that we could all feel comfortable with the data?
Again, scientists are always going to great lengths to get the purest, most uncorrupted data. Given what's currently at stake in this debate, why aren't all of the weather stations correctly situated in fields on grass 100 feet from the nearest structure in each direction so that the data is as pure as possible?
Taking this a step further, when I studied statistics in college, anomalies weren't adjusted for -- they were tossed out of the sample because they were determined to be anomalies. Make sense?
Finally, I'm sure you know that what most skeptics are debating is man's role in all this, not the fact that temperatures have increased. BUT, we are also skeptical of just how much they've increased due to problems with data collection. Many of the scientists I regularly communicate with believe that the actual increase in the past 100 years could be as low as 0.2 degrees.
Should such a fluctuation be the focus of so much hysteria? ns
Right to the heart of the mat
June 19, 2007 - 16:50 ET by dscottRight to the heart of the matter Noel. Anomalies are a euphemism for outliers. In other words, they (AGW folks) have rationalized the using outliers to determine the mean value, which is a big no, no in statistics.
Seems the entire AGW theory is based on a series of scientifically unacceptable practices. Here we have outliers determining the mean, prior to that the Mann Hockey stick and the CO2 chart using mixed incompatible data sets and the denial of the Medieval & Roman Warmings. These are all bone headed mistakes only a student would make, leaving us with only two rational conclusions: Gross Incompetence or Deliberate Deception.
“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” – Marcus Aurelius
But, Noel. If you toss out th
June 19, 2007 - 17:12 ET by danboBut, Noel. If you toss out the anomalities? You're again playing with the numbers. If you toss out those numbers that don't fit your scheme, you can get anything you want. This has been pointed out by several scientist. There are sometimes so many anomalities tossed out. And so many adjustments. If you look at all the raw data. You have nothing.
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.” H.L. Mencken
Danbo
June 19, 2007 - 17:23 ET by Noel SheppardDan,
I don't disagree with that. This is why statistics are so easily manipulated.
However, what we've got working with these temperature statistics as you know from your reading and participation at CS is that much of the GISS data has eliminated numbers at the low end, as well as years of low temperatures to reach a desired conclusion. Correct?
In the end, given the politics involved, and the games that appear to be being played by those collecting the data, it seems impossible to believe anything coming out of these agencies pertaining to climate.
Yet, what I do find fascinating is that leftists who question the strength of the current economy due to their distrust of statistics totally believe conclusions being created by statistical models supposedly predicting the future. As such, these folks are skeptical about economic data collection of past events, but believers in complex and untested statistical prognostications of the future.
Interesting dichotomy, wouldn't you agree? ns
We agree on that. They keep a
June 19, 2007 - 17:55 ET by danboWe agree on that. They keep adjusting the numbers untill it proves them right. Then hide the formulas and sources for raw data.
Just look at the charts Hansen did in the 80's and his recent ones. They're different. Even though from the same sources. Must have been late readings they found in Dade county under votes for Al Gore.
It looks like they're raising the temps for the 40-70's, And lowering the temps from the 30's. They're adjusting the data till it gives them what they want.
They keep saying they adjust for UHI effect. But if you look at the raw data. It looks like they're adjusting recent temps upward. Not down ward. They must be more concerned about the Urban Cool Island effect.
Having some knowledge on tree rings. I want to know if the thermometer in a tree is accurate to single or double digits to the right of the decimal.
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.” H.L. Mencken
Danbo, your comment on tree r
June 19, 2007 - 23:20 ET by MikeBDanbo, your comment on tree rings caused a big question mark to show up. Wouldn't tree growth depend not only on temperature, but on rainfall also? So, if there was a moderately warm year, but very little rainfall, wouldn't it produce a thin ring? If there was a years long drought, even though the temps were moderate, would that not result in a series of thin rings, which might be interpreted as a cold streak? I am starting to wonder about temperature guesses due to tree ring data.
"A communist is someone who reads Marx. An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx." Ronald Reagan
Great point. We need to rem
June 20, 2007 - 07:47 ET by dahliatraversGreat point. We need to remember that the theory of AGW is based upon inferred temperatures up until 1880.
And this is a big weakness in the theory. How do we know, as AGW advocates bleat, that at no point in the last 550,000,000 years did temperatures go up as "rapidly" as they have in the last 125 years?
Mike. Moisture is a big varia
June 20, 2007 - 08:11 ET by danboMike. Moisture is a big variable. CO2 in the atmosphere may also be a variable, as well as length of the growing season. (Which is not an exact match to temperture. A long cooler growing season may show greater growth.) There are several variables that can influence tree growth.
At best, tree rings could be a nice "guess" at temperture history. Within several degrees. Yet warmers are trying to use them within fractions of a degree. Yet ignore things like tree trunks above todays timberline. Plant roots and masterdons found in permafrost. And a number of other observations that point to seriously warmer periods.
It's my understanding that warmers (as Mann) try to use tree rings up untill the 1980s, then splice in NASA temps. Rather than continue with tree rings through the entire period. Must be that trees stopped growing in the 80's.
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.” H.L. Mencken
Temperature Readings
June 19, 2007 - 21:23 ET by pbthinkerThose of us, that have followed this issue, are aware of the Urban Heat Island Effect. The pictures actually show more than that since they are creating a separate heat island to go along with what has already been created. Had the measuring devices been removed from their own heat islands they would still be measuring increased temperature, at ground level, from buildings, roadways, parking lots, etc.
We're also getting temperature readings from satelites, which people claim will be more accurate, perhaps now we can see why. Has anyone questioned the National Weather Service about these locations?
Hopefully, the "real scientists" will be coming out and becoming very vocal about this issue. Gore is out there trying to create fear that we only have a few years left, etc. Well, the fact is, we do only have a few years left before we start cooling and if nuts, like Gore, get a bunch of legislation through, they'll be the ones taking credit for a completely natural event.
Never argue with an idiot. They'll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
The MSM will not investigate
June 19, 2007 - 15:20 ET by c5thenUnless they are shamed into it by the blogosphere. They are the ones that are reporting that they "debate is over" and that AGW is a fact. They only investigate and report things today that fit in with their advocacy agenda in general.
The day that "politician" became a career choice is the day we started losing the Republic
Anyone in science who tells y
June 19, 2007 - 16:19 ET by danboAnyone in science who tells you the debate is over. Has left the realm of science. And ventured into the realm of dogma.
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.” H.L. Mencken
....what's that directly unde
June 19, 2007 - 16:22 ET by Dave R....what's that directly underneath it, but a Weber grill!
That guy in Kentucky knows his grills. -Sorry, Noel.
This line from the Climate Audit post was amusing:
The National Research Council has responded to complaints about continuing problems with data access by instituting a new blue-ribbon panel on data access.
You mean it requires a blue ribbon panel to decide it might not be a good idea to have weather stations placed near incinerators, grills, ac units and baking asphalt? LOL.
Horner also notes in his book
June 19, 2007 - 16:30 ET by GalvanicHorner also notes in his book that over the years, a number of Siberian-located weather stations have stopped reporting on the cooler climate there, because the Russian governent no longer has the resources to fund them.
I keep my thermometer in the
June 19, 2007 - 16:40 ET by mattmI keep my thermometer in the basement, just to counteract the APGW crowd.
Temp on the bar-b
June 19, 2007 - 18:04 ET by acumenThis get's even more interesting considering that the accepted global average temperature statistics used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that no ground-based warming has occurred since 1998. Source
The absence of ground-based warming since 1998 in spite of the ill-conceived placement of surface temperature measuring devices near unnatural heat sources raises the very real question of how much have we actually cooled since 1998.
Acca. Some people want to use
June 19, 2007 - 18:20 ET by danboAcca. Some people want to use the 2005 as the warmest year. (I believe that was NASA.) Of course not even IPCC uses that one. It depends how you massage the data.
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.” H.L. Mencken
I've suspected for a long tim
June 19, 2007 - 21:16 ET by stanleygoodspeedI've suspected for a long time that placement of temperature gauges was a significant factor behind much of the data global warmists hijacked from NASA and NOAA ... since the day my ditzy neighbor tried to convince me that global warming was real by telling me her temperature gauge consistently read above 95 degrees during the summer months ... SHE HAD IT HUNG ON A BRICK WALL THAT RECEIVED DIRECT SUNLIGHT FROM 10 A.M. to 5 P.M. !!
Quick question: If these e
June 19, 2007 - 18:35 ET by LeonQuick question:
If these enviornments caused such extremes in additional heat or cold, wouldn't the data be immediately deemed unreliable?
If these placements are genuinely affecting the temperature readings of the stations, I can't imagine it's more than a percentage of a degree. Otherwise the higher or lower temperature would be noticed immediately and inspected.
People know the mean temperatures for all areas in the country at every time of the year. If a temperature station was 5 too high or 5 too low, wouldn't people think it was odd?
Brit Hume noted Thermometer placement
June 19, 2007 - 18:40 ET by Cool ArrowBrit Hume just mentioned the thermometer placement issue
One of these instruments was found in Michael Moore's butt
It registered 911 deg. F
RO...er....CAROFLMAO!
June 19, 2007 - 18:43 ET by bigtimerRO...er....CA
ROFLMAO!
My thoughts? "Brit's int
June 19, 2007 - 18:44 ET by sarcasmoMy thoughts? "Brit's interns obviously read NB!"
JMR
Zing! That sure is hot.
June 19, 2007 - 18:45 ET by LeonZing!
That sure is hot.
He must be burning all that cash he's made in there.
Not a good Socialist
June 20, 2007 - 06:02 ET by UnsaneWell, that's not being a good Socialist. If Moore was a good Socialist, he would be redistributing that cash, not burning it. Shouldn't he be donating it to the government? After all, the government can spend it better than he can, right?
MAKE WAY FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SPURS!!! THE 1999, 2003, 2005, AND 2007 NBA CHAMPIONS!!!!
People know the mean temperat
June 20, 2007 - 11:42 ET by dscottPeople know the mean temperatures for all areas in the country at every time of the year. If a temperature station was 5 too high or 5 too low, wouldn't people think it was odd?
That's the point Leon, they should have but chose to conveniently ignore the problem lest their precious theory be contradicted. I make this accusation based on AGW supporter quotes from a prior thread where Noel brought this up with the 15 year old girl exposing the problem.
One of the most basic routines of science is to safe guard the data collection process otherwise the information is useless and brings incorrect results. The AGW fanatics knew there was a problem and then covered it up with statistical techno babble.
To put this in legal terms: They at minimum were negligent in not periodically inspecting the weather stations as they should have known that ground conditions do change due to human land use changes. They in fact were grossly negligent because they knew that ground conditions had changed by the fact they used anomalies to refine the temperature data to cover up that fact.
“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” – Marcus Aurelius
I've suspected for a long tim
June 19, 2007 - 21:19 ET by stanleygoodspeedI've suspected for a long time that placement of temperature gauges was a significant factor behind much of the data global warmists hijacked from NASA and NOAA ... since the day my ditzy neighbor tried to convince me that global warming was real by telling me her temperature gauge consistently read above 95 degrees during the summer months ... SHE HAD IT HUNG ON A BRICK WALL THAT RECEIVED DIRECT SUNLIGHT FROM 10 A.M. to 5 P.M. !!
Directions for use
June 20, 2007 - 06:00 ET by UnsaneLOL!!!
(Hang your thermometers or thermometer sensors in a white, well ventilated box, facing north, and out of dircet sunlight.)
MAKE WAY FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SPURS!!! THE 1999, 2003, 2005, AND 2007 NBA CHAMPIONS!!!!
Unsane, This is a goodbye. We
June 20, 2007 - 23:40 ET by throatwobblerUnsane, This is a goodbye. We've had some good times. I remember that Snowy day in San Antonio like I was actually there. I'm going to hang myself now. The world is just too cruel and unwilling to undergo the kind of self-denial that I ask of it. You were right in a way. The whole scam is crumbling and I cna't stand to live in a world where people can buy and consume products of their own choice. I visited a Starbucks today instead of making my own coffee by hand. I caught myslef enjoying the experience, and I can't abide that. We all knew I was doomed when I first came on this site. You saw it first perhaps and tried to warn me. The scam should dissolve by the end of the year and Republicans will surely be swept into a permanent majority. It was a wild ride, old firend. I'll think fondly of your attempts to save me. Goodbye. Enjoy the capitalist heaven that awaits. And when you walk into an establishment hell bent on prfit you can listen to the sound of currency being exchanged for product and the din of customers being satisified and the economy being strengthend and you will hear softly under the madness... throatwobbler...throatwobbler...throatwobbler.
Stanley, what arctic region d
June 21, 2007 - 11:26 ET by MikeBStanley, what arctic region do you live in? Around here it is not unusual for 95 degree days in the summer. Coupled with humidity readings of 60% or higher, a 90 degree day can feel like 110 degrees easily. In the summer we pray for the ice age promised in the 1970s to get here. In the winter we think that perhaps some global warming might not be a bad idea.
"A communist is someone who reads Marx. An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx." Ronald Reagan
Sounds like she also hung h
June 21, 2007 - 11:29 ET by Jack BauerSounds like she also hung her head in the same place. That could explain her melted brain.