Why Presidential Polls ARE NOT IMPORTANT

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This is a cut and Paste from Associated Content

General Election Polls: A History of Inaccuracy
The Sad History of General Election Polls, and How They Have Repeatedly Failed to Predict the Outcomes of Presidential Elections

 

 

I'm sure you've noticed all the political campaign touting general election polls. Unfortunately, these polls have a terrible history of actually predicting who will in the fall. So what is Barack Obama
leads everyone in Zogby, woop-dee-do! Does John Edwards leads in
Rassmussen, oh my lord! Clinton leads in ARG? Yowsie! I'm going to
explore how the polls have failed repeatedly, and show you the real margin of error. So next time you see a poll, read it with caution!

Here are some of the worst disasters of General Election polling from the last 24
years of Presidential elections. After this January's debacle in New
Hampshire, can we just argue on the issues and the REASONS why to
support a candidate, and ignore faulty polls?

1976

Late July - Gallup
Jimmy Carter 62%
Gerald Ford 30%

Final Results

Carter 50.1%
Ford 48.0%

Average MOE - 14.95%

This sort of shift would make it a blowout for either side of the aisle.

1980 (this one's for those of you who say - "polls shift over time")

Nov 1980, Gallup Pre-Election Poll
Carter 44%
Reagan 41%

Final Results

Reagan 50.7%
Carter 41.0%

Average
MOE - 5.85% = the margin of error in every GE poll this year. This
really embarrassed the pollsters, so of course, they went ahead and did
it again.

1988

5/17 - NYT/CBS
Michael Dukakis 49%
George Bush 39%

Final Results
Bush 53.4%

Dukakis 45.6%

Average MOE - 7.9%

A shift like what occurred in 1988 would make any Democrat the winner or the loser by a healthy margin.

1992

June 1992 Time/CNN
Ross Perot 37%
George Bush 24%
Bill Clinton 24%

Final Results
Clinton 43.0%
Bush 37.4%
Perot 18.9%

Average MOE - 20.1%. Imagine if Bloomberg's runs, I foresee similar dynamics.

2000

Sept 2000 Newsweek
Al Gore 49%
George W. Bush 39%

Final Results
Bush 47.9%
Gore 48.4%

Average MOE - 4.8%

So all the undecided went for Bush, eh? Polls are worthless in close races. Hmmm, sounds familiar, doesn't it?

In conclusion, the only poll that matters is the one on election day.


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Shhhhhh - don't let Shawn see this one

He wouldn't like it

Here is the link again showing how wrong Presidential polls have been in the past.

Don't trust the Polls

Dee... Exactly

Dee...

Exactly right...election day is the only real poll that matters...

Good work gal...

I have to get out of here pretty quick, but sure glad I caught this.

We all know after enough time if you've lived long enough by now, how the polls work, how they sway, how they are asked, how they double one party over the other with some samples...on and on...plus with some polls with the internals the talking heads neglect to tell about.

One thing about it..they all have to get closer to the truth the nearer the election gets, they need to pretend they have a reputation, that they matter/are relevant, and most of all have an income for the the next election!

 

"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh

Hi BT - I think that it's normally the case

that they care about their reputation, but I'm not so sure this time.  The media don't care about theirs at all anymore and are showing zero professionalism.  I think it's possible pollsters who are Obama supporters won't care either.  They are blindly in love with Obama. People will do anything for love. 

The cards are certainly stacked against McCain, we have to hope that he can expose the phony deck before he goes all in.  

 

Dee, Thank you for posting this.

LOL-I might just actually get a decent night's sleep for the first time in about two weeks.

BTW-Nice work.  :-)

-Dave

Barrack Hussein Obama: The Marxist messiah.


It made me feel a lot better Dave

and I needed it!  Plus in those previous times, the media was never as in the tank for any of these other candidates like they are for Obama.  We've seen unbelievable new lengths in how far they will go to cover for him and I'm sure that it's the same with the pollsters. 

I'm still very worried, but we won't know until Nov 5th.  

No matter what, I'm really sick of people like Shawn gleefully shoving the polls in our faces.

Dee, yeah, this is going to cause shawn to have a conniption.

:-^)

In this case, let's all hope that history repeats itself once again. 

-After all, the only thing hanging in the balance is the future of our Republic.

-Dave

Barrack Hussein Obama: The Marxist messiah.


Lol Dave

I had to actually google what conniption meant. I have a strong opinion about polls and what many people don't realize is I am not trying to rub anyones nose in it that Obama is in the lead, I just believe in polls.

There will be no more defending of polls from me until the election, and like I said before, If I am wrong, I will be happy to admit it.

Hope you have a good sleep my friend :-)

Real life video games are cool

shawn,

Thanks.

LOL-I used to hear that word alot when I was growing up. My grandmother uses to say it all the time.

-Dave

>>> Dee saves Dave from approaching insanity! <<<

 


As to your religious, dogmatic belief in polls...

Do you likewise believe in the Easter Bunny, the Tooth Fairy, Santa Claus and the Great Pumpkin?

Because no matter how many times people point out the glaring flaws in your belief, you just throw a bigger fit and insist even more loudly that polls are just completely perfect.

Again, if they are just so great and so accurate, why don't we just cancel elections?

Whoever casts a vote for Obama-Biden is nothing more than a common thief.  Whoever fails to vote against them is nothing more than a moral coward.

You lie Unsane!!

I was eight years old and I put a my tooth under the pillow, and the next morning the tooth was gone and in its place was 2 dollars. How do you explain that Unsane? Magic?

Lol, just in case you did not read it in my own polls forum, I have been getting negative feedback from some of my friends on this site and I will not defend polls any longer on NB, if you want to debate this offline I would be more than happy to.

Real life video games are cool

I am never content...

I'm not content.  You know that.  How about not at anytime ever, anywhere, trusting polls?

Here's more gas on the fire: NYT/CBS has Obama up by double digits.  Other polls have Obama at single digits and in statistical ties.  Who do I believe?

And no, I haven't visited the original thread in some time.  So thanks for the update.  Ever so slightly off topic: what did you think of the Happyland election?  Are you bummed because Dion, or perhaps Layton, didn't win?  :-) 

Whoever casts a vote for Obama-Biden is nothing more than a common thief.  Whoever fails to vote against them is nothing more than a moral coward.

Again Unsane

I have been told that it seems I am rubbing it in about the polls, and to quote "knock it off", so I will no longer be debating about it online.

And no I am not upset. The most conservative polititian in Canada would be a flaming lib in the USA

Real life video games are cool

Sad

Sad, shawn. I never thought I'd see the day when you would be reduced to a petulant, whining crybaby. 

Admit it.  You wanted to see a NDP victory on the 14th. 

Whoever casts a vote for Obama-Biden is nothing more than a common thief.  Whoever fails to vote against them is nothing more than a moral coward.

Actually Unsane

I am no fan of the NDP at all. I saw them run British Columbia in the ground when I still lived there.

Lol, I still have no idea, where you got from my post that I was whining, but to each their own.

BTW

I still am not going to debate polls with you, but just a quick question, if by chance the day of the election, the results pretty much convey how the polls predicted, will you admit you were wrong about them in this election? Please not the usual "Book of John" length Unsane response, A yes or no will do just fine :-)

Real life video games are cool

What a crock Shawn - If Obama wins - it doesn't mean the polls

were right.  He's going to be spending over $200 million in these coming days, plus he's got the media in the tank and massive voter fraud. 

The only proof that they were wrong will be if McCain wins, but if Obama wins it does not mean the polls were right.  I'm sure this concept is way too complicated for you to understand.  

I'm on record here right now saying Obama could very likely win and that does not change my opinion of the polls.  The polls are designed to help him win just as the $200 million, the biased media and the voter fraud are.  The point is whether or not these things can be overcome.   

Thats right Dee

Blame the media for the problems of the GOP on the fact that Obama is good at raising money and the media.

edit

aww shucks, guy just can't win here

The polls are wrong, Mccain wins, neener neener Shawn you were wrong

The polls are right and Obama wins big, Its somebody elses fault

Very nice Dee :-)

Real life video games are cool

another nonsensical brainwashed comment from Shawn

These pop culture types can never see problems with media and celebrity. It's really sad.

I just rewatched "Network" and the Faye Dunaway Character is such a perfect example of liberals. They think and live their lives as if they are in some kind of movie.

Nice subject line Dee

It just goes to show that you don't have much ammo left. I never said there was no media bias, I also never said or even endorsed Obama to win. 

All I'm saying is I believe in polls, but your too busy thinking new ad hominems to realize that.

Also, just to prove a point and my confidence in polls and the fact that I don't like either candidate, My vote will go to McCain on election day.

Real life video games are cool

talk about lack of ammo - Shawn expects us to believe

he's voting for McCain on his good word - what a joke.   He also says he doesn't like either candidate but saves 99% of his attacks for McCain and Republicans. 

I've given evidence of why the polls are not always accurate and you think that because they get it right sometimes, it proves they are always accurate.  You have such a myopic view that you can't even understand  that whether or not Obama actually wins has nothing to do with my point.   I really don't have any interest in trying to explain it any further to you. 

Lol Dee

Now your implying I am a liar and not keep my word.

I already told you and I am not going to be debating about polls till the day before election day. I'm merely stating that your trying to make it that you win no matter what.

Obama wins, It is the msm and liberals fault

Mccain wins, the polls are wrong.

I know how sensitive you are, , but you certainly like it both ways.

Real life video games are cool

»→ Polls are important

If you claim to be a fence sitter, perhaps the only validation of your unspoken devotion to Gollum/Plugs is having the support of a poll.

Underdog & Pitbull 08

Sounds nice, but comparing

Sounds nice, but comparing polls from May-June to final election results doesn't put things in their proper perspective. For that you'd need to compare polls from October during those elections to our current October polls. I doubt you'll find many(if any) showing that the eventual winner was down 7-10 points at this point in the election. For example, Dukakis may have been up 10 in May, but he wasn't up 10 two weeks before the election. Unfortunately for us, it isn't May.

The sad reality is that polls do matter, especially polls taken close to election day. They may not tell you the exact percentage, but they do tell you what the outcome will likely be, and polls today are telling us that Obama will win. It doesn't matter if it's by 10 points or 1. Either one will make him president.

The only hope we have at this point is that poll samples are intentionally way way off. I hope they are. Otherwise, hello President Obama, and good-bye America as you knew it. 

Obama's Economic plan: more taxes, more spending, more regulation. Prosperity here we come.

ckc1227

Excellent post and great points!  I guess we will see what happens election day.

Looks like McCain is not afraid of the poll numbers in Philly, hopefully for the GOP they are wrong

Real life video games are cool

CkC - don't let people like Shawn discourage you Polls don't

matter - unless they show Republicans ahead.  If they show Dems ahead, it's impossible to know because they always favor Dems.  It can go either way is my point. 

I had just posted this real quick as a general response to Shawn's obnoxious na na ha ha post about the polls.   This article was from the summer so it wasn't careful to only include examples of late election turns. 

Ann Coulter did an article recently and ALL of her examples are right before the elections.  Read this and feel better.


84 Percent say they'd never lie to a pollster

Obama could still win - I'm not saying that it's not possible. I'm just saying you can't trust the polls when they favor Democrats because they almost always favor Democrats.   Shawn is incapable of understanding that concept.


Well Dee, the way I see it

I could not have discouraged CkC. I do not see anywhere on this thread, where I have defended polls do you? I said I believe in them and thats it.

CkC came up with many good points and I complimented  him and mentioned that it does not look like McCain is the intimidated by the polls in Philly.

Instead of addressing even one of his good points,  all you do is decide to blame liberal polling bias. Too bad this is not the old west, if you could point a pistol like you can fingers, you would be the Wyatt Earp of NB.

Real life video games are cool

Come on Shawn are you really that thick

in the head?

Any person who read the posts can see that I addressed his main point about the polls being close to the election. I added a link that talks about polls being close to the election.  Is your reading comprehension really that bad or are you just determined to be jerky no matter what?

Dee

1) Is your reading comprehension really that bad?

or

2) are you just determined to be jerky no matter what? 

 

We always know it's door #2, don't we?

 

NOW PLAYING:
Governor Palin Get Your Gun

 

Shy - Shawn definitely takes the cake

for people who respond to posts where it seems as if they didn't even read them.  You just scratch your head and think - is this guy for real?  I really don't know if it's the jerk factor or the ignorance factor but either way it's very annoying.  

No problem Dee

Could you highlight and show me where you addressed his points, all I saw was linked a Ann Coulter article that talked about William Ayers.

Thank you

 

Real life video games are cool

It's clear that you don't even know what his main point was

you are a complete waste of time.  Any person with half a brain can see that I directly addressed his main point. 

^^ Shawn,Dee,Shy...DON'T STEAL MY THUNDER!!

Sooo...I was standing in line at the Bank...

...and this Unicorn cuts in front of me...and...and...

...what is this thread about...

Ohhh...LOOK....something SHINY...I like Shiny things...

Ster. ^^

Ster, Sounds like

Ster,

Sounds like Attention Deficit Disorder, which in adults can.....Hey Look, A Chicken!!!

Scuba, Ster, Dee... AND Shawn... and others....

You must all report to.... CHAT.....

http://www.chatzy.co...

 

NOW PLAYING:
Governor Palin Get Your Gun

 

^^ Scuba..Nooo...

I think that was ...wait for it....

A SHINY CHICKEN!!!  Wait...Shiny Chickens???

WTF would a Shiny Chicken be doing in a BANK???

Scuba...What has happened to Bank Security???

Ster.

Security?? I thought you

Security?? I thought you had the security covered? 

LMAO, I dunno what just came over me. LOL.

It was about this...this

It was about this...this ought to make shawns day...from the AP no less.

"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh

excellent bigtimer

The polls have changed and have tightened up. That is why polls are important....oops I'm not suppossed to defend polls till the election, sorry.

Real life video games are cool

Do something!

You have to do something about your OBSESSIVE DEVOTION to polls... 

Whoever casts a vote for Obama-Biden is nothing more than a common thief.  Whoever fails to vote against them is nothing more than a moral coward.

Well Unsane

I kept my word and have not defended them for while so I guess that is start ;-)

Instead of having someone else answer my question to you, how about you answer it yourself. Let say the election  goes pretty much exactly as the electoral college poll says the day before the election. I don't expect you to admit you to admit that all poll are correct, but will you be man enough to admit this one was pretty much right on?

He's got my vote

Pick ONE

Which? 

You can't bet ALL the numbers on the roulette wheel.

I've seen polls where His Excellency The Lord Barack Hussein Obama The Shahinshah is beating McCain 52-41.  I've seen polls where McCain is ahead.  Who the hell do I believe?

I'll take a poll of my apartment's residents. 

One responded voted for McCain.  Zero support Obama.  So it looks like a 100% turnout for McCain.   

Whoever casts a vote for Obama-Biden is nothing more than a common thief.  Whoever fails to vote against them is nothing more than a moral coward.

Unsane

Lets use the Real Clear Politics Electoral College map. If the race pretty much goes as predicted on this map, you admit you were wrong about the polls for this election....deal?

I will not ask you to admit you are wrong if Obama wins with a squeeker, only if the map is over accurate give or take a one or two battleground states like Ohio, MO or FL, because those are basically ties.

He's got my vote

Are you kidding me???

Why should I admit I am wrong when history STILL proves me right?  You chicken *bleep*. 

Another bit of evidence: from 1 December 1980, in Time: an article on how the polls got the 1980 election all wrong.

Oh, I know, I know, yet another whine about how dare I cite silly things like history, polls in other countries, etc etc etc...  

Whoever casts a vote for Obama-Biden is nothing more than a common thief.  Whoever fails to vote against them is nothing more than a moral coward.

hmmmm

Very interesting that you don't reply to my post until the day after the election. Oh I know you've been busy right? I saw you on here a few days ago, but I'm sure it was hard finding the new post on the NB tracking system.

Also I know how obessed you are to history, that is why I put the caveot on there about admitting I am right about this election

Ok now lets rewind to the poll about the electoral map. Obama was projected to win 278 electorals with the battle grounds undecided.

They managed to pick ever State Obama won. Check out the polls on the battleground states as well. Florida Obama by 1.8 and Ohio by 2.5. Pretty darn accurate, and both those States gone to Obama.

Let me also say this about what somebody else I heard today say about the inflated #'s. Maybe you don't always get the score of the game by the exact number, but if you pick over 160 games "congress seats included" and you pick 95 percent of them right, you would win a lot of money.

He had my vote

Fuel for the fire

I'm not jumping in, I just wanted to add this little tidbit to both of y'alls arsenals. ;-)

http://blogs.chron.c...

 

 

If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love youBut if you really make them think, they'll hate you.

Don Marquis 1878-1937

Thank you Hillbilly King

Do you notice what is pretty much the same about all the different polls from you link? All of them had Obama projected to win in a landslide

Now IMO winning by over 7 million votes is not a landslide like a Reagan/Mondale, but if the electoral vote is won by around 180 electoral votes is a landslide.

Again HBK, the Real Clear Politics cumilative poll not only called the electoral vote spot on, they also called most of the senate, congress races as well. 

Now there are 435 seats in congress,  around 31 for grabs in the senate, 50 States for the POTUS,  not even including governmore races. That is over 500 races the polls have to track, and they got them pretty much got them all right.

Now as far as what somebody is saying about over sampling dems and inflating numbers to help the dems win. I find it hard to believe that if you over poll dems in Texas for 9 months straight, you can all of sudden turn that into a blue state? I don't think so.

He had my vote

Again...

 Again HBK, the Real Clear Politics cumilative poll not only called the electoral vote spot on, they also called most of the senate, congress races as well.  Great!  That's a feather in their cap!

But that is still ONE polling organization out of THOUSANDS.  And just as in investments, "past performance does not guarantee future results".  I remember all th gushing over Zogby after one election (was it 1996?), yet I have yet to see them predict election results as well as they did that particular election. 

"THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING!!!  A WAR ON FREEWILL IS COMING!!!" - Nevermore, "Bittersweet Feast", from This Godless Endeavor (2005)

Dee actually you remind of the msm

and Joe the plumber. Instead of actually asking questions, you change to subject and attack the person or change topics.

When we talked about the Sarah Palin interview, all you wanted to talk about was Obama.

Now you can't even point out how you addressed ckc's points with just a blanket statement.....how sad.

Real life video games are cool

I did point it out Shawn and anyone can see it

Anyone could have seen it without my pointing it out & you want it pointed out twice.  You are really a joke

My goodness Dee

"Any person who read the posts can see that I addressed his main point about the polls being close to the election."

"CkC - don't let people like Shawn discourage you Polls don't
October 22, 2008 - 15:36 ET by Dee Bunk


matter - unless they show Republicans ahead.  If they show Dems ahead,
it's impossible to know because they always favor Dems.  It can go
either way is my point. 


I had just posted this real quick as a general response to Shawn's
obnoxious na na ha ha post about the polls.   This article was from the
summer so it wasn't careful to only include examples of late election
turns. 


Ann Coulter did an article recently and ALL of her examples are right before the elections.  Read this and feel better.


84 Percent say they'd never lie to a pollster


Obama could still win - I'm not saying that it's not possible. I'm
just saying you can't trust the polls when they favor Democrats because
they almost always favor Democrats.   Shawn is incapable of
understanding that concept."

Looks to me like you linked an article and were blaming people as usual, now you being lazy and getting other to vouch for you. Yawn

 

Real life video games are cool

This is really really sad

Shawn can't understand the most simple concepts of what someone says. Ckc - said that the polls in my example were from different points in the election and that polls right before the election were more accurate.  I gave him new examples (from the Coulter article) of polls that were all close to the election and Shawn can't see how that addresses his point. 

Is this ignorance of his a game?  I saw him doing it a while back with Indiana Joe.  

Really the Ann Coultter article?

Ok so you did not give any examples, but it was Ann Coulter. OIC. First you said any reasonable person can tell where you said it, but lets give you the benefit of the doubt, here is the article

"the media are acting as if they completely and fully vetted Obama during
the Democratic primaries and that's why they are entitled to send teams
of researchers into Alaska to analyze Sarah Palin's every expense
report.

In fact, the mainstream media did no vetting. They seem to have
all agreed, "OK, none of us will get into this business with Jeremiah
Wright, 'Tony' Rezko, Saul Alinsky, Bill Ayers and everyone's
impression of an angry Michelle Obama on 'The Jerry Springer Show.'"

During one of the Democratic primary debates, Hillary Clinton was
hissed for mentioning Syrian national Rezko, and during another, ABC
moderator George Stephanopoulos nearly lost his career for asking Obama
one question about William Ayers.

In the past week, TV anchors have taken to claiming that Obama
"refuted" John McCain's statement that Obama launched his political
career at the home of former Weather Underground leader Ayers.

No, Obama "denied" it; he didn't "refute" it. If "denying"
something is the same as "refuting" it, then maybe the establishment
media can quit harping on Palin's qualifications to be president, since
she too "refuted" that by denying it.

Back before the media realized it needed to lie about Obama
launching his political career at Ayers' house, the Los Angeles Times
provided an eyewitness account from a liberal who attended the event.

"When I first met Barack Obama, he was giving a standard,
innocuous little talk in the living room of those two
legends-in-their-own-minds, Bill Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn. They were
launching him -- introducing him to the Hyde Park community as the best
thing since sliced bread."

The Times has now stripped this item from its Web page, but the great blogger Patterico has preserved it for posterity on his Web page.

Obama's glib remark that "Bill Ayers is a professor of education
in Chicago; 40 years ago when I was 8 years old he engaged in
despicable acts with a domestic group. I have roundly denounced those
attacks" -- doesn't answer anything.

First of all, the fact that Ayers is a professor of education
proves only one thing: He is dumber than any person without an
education degree.

Ayers is such an imbecile, we ought to be amazed that he's
teaching at a university -- even when you consider that it's an ed
school -- except all former violent radicals end up teaching. Roughly
80 percent of former Weathermen are full college professors -- 99
percent if you don't include the ones killed in shoot-outs with the
police or in prison -- i.e., not yet pardoned by a Democratic
president.

Any other profession would have banned a person like Ayers.
Universities not only accept former domestic terrorists, but also move
them to the front of the line. In addition to Ayers, among those once
on the FBI's most-wanted list who ended up in cushy college teaching
positions are Bernardine Dohrn (Northwestern University), Mark Rudd (a
junior college in New Mexico) and Angela Davis (History of
Consciousness Department, University of California at Santa Cruz).

While others were hard at work on Ph.D.s, Susan Rosenberg was
conspiring to kill cops and blow up buildings, and was assembling
massive caches of explosives. This put her on the fast track for a
teaching position at Hamilton College!

Despite having absolutely no qualifications to teach, having
earned only a master's degree in "writing" through a correspondence
course, Rosenberg was offered a position at Hamilton within a few years
of President Clinton pardoning her in 2001, releasing her from a
58-year prison sentence for participating in the murder of cops and
possessing more than 700 pounds of explosives.

But Obama thinks it's a selling point to say that Ayers is a college professor.

Hundreds of college professors have signed a letter vouching for
Ayers, which would be like Lester Maddox producing a letter from George
Wallace assuring us that Maddox is a respected member of the community.
No, really, I've got the letter right here!

The media keep citing the fact that the money Obama and Ayers
distributed to idiotic left-wing causes came -- as The New York Times
put it -- "from Walter H. Annenberg, the billionaire publisher and
philanthropist and President Richard M. Nixon's ambassador to the
United Kingdom."

Great Republican though he was, Walter Annenberg died in 2002. The
money came from the Annenberg Foundation, which, like all foundations,
distributes money to projects that its founder would despise. John
Kerry ran for president on the late John Heinz's money. That didn't
mean Republican Heinz was endorsing Kerry.

As John O'Sullivan says, any foundation that is not explicitly
right-wing will become a radical left-wing organization within a few
years. It could be the Association of University Women, the American
Association of Retired People, the American Rose Growers, the
Foundation for the Study of Railroad Engineers or the Choral Society of
Newport Beach.

Left-wing radicals swarm to free foundation money, where they can
give gigantic grants to one another and they will never have to do a
day's work. That's exactly what Obama and Ayers did with Annenberg's
money.

None of the Annenberg money went to schoolchildren. It went to
Ayers' left-wing crank friends to write moronic papers that we hope no
one ever reads.

Instead of teaching students reading and writing, Ayers thinks
they should be taught to rebel against America's "imperialist" social
structure. In 2006, Ayers was in Venezuela praising communist dictator
Hugo Chavez, saying, "We share the belief that education is the
motor-force of revolution."

He has backed a line of schoolbooks such as one titled "Teaching Science for Social Justice."

Forget about Ayers' domestic terrorism when Obama "was 8 years old." Does he agree with Ayers' idiot ideas right now?

COPYRIGHT 2008 ANN COULTER

DISTRIBUTED BY UNIVERSAL PRESS SYNDICATE

4520 Main Street, Kansas City, MO 6411 "

Hmmm, and when pray tell did Coulter talk about polls close to the election?  Sounded like a rant about Ayers to me You can't point it out where you brought up any points about close to the election  can ya?

Real life video games are cool

Thanks for taking up so much room Shawn,

This is the link to Ann's article about the polls.

There really was no reason to C&P the whole article. I have already read it. I get emails from Townhall about midnight with the next day's articles, but thanks again. :) 

"This
liberal would be all about socialize -- uh, uh, would be about
basically taking over and the government running all of your companies."-Maxine Waters 2008

See - Restless could find it - no problem

I guess Coulter erases her old page when she puts up a new article.  Shawn didn't read it when I posted earlier.  Obviously my title didn't match the new article and that sent him into a frenzy because he hadn't read it the first time. He thought I linked an irrelevant article and had a "gotcha".   It's so pathetic.  Any normal person who would click on the article (after it was changed) would say -"hey your link doesn't go to the article you said". 

Dee...LMAO now, I have

Dee...LMAO now, I have stayed out of this..but your line with the words "any normal person" got me good...

Come on Dee...think about it...why waste your precious time?

"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh

Hey BT

Yeah - I'm done - he's so petty and pathetic.  It's pointless.  I have to go to bed anyway.  G'night

Good night...catch ya'

Good night...catch ya' tomorrow...God willing. 

"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh

Good night Dee

Good night Dee

^^Bt...Can't...Fit...

...my...

...big...

...@ss...

...here...

Ster.

What's with that link

What's with that link Ster?

"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh

^^Bt..I can't use...

"A" for the "ss" part...get it??

Ster.

Nope. "America isn't the

Nope.

"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh

Come on R1 that is just petty

There are more important things  that are going on, like when is Tony Romo going to start playing :-)

Real life video games are cool

What's petty???

And my guess is he starts this Sunday.

"This liberal would be all about socialize -- uh, uh, would be about basically taking over and the government running all of your companies."-Maxine Waters 2008

So you finally decided to read it Shawn?

How funny - you just proved that you didn't read it the first time because the article was there when I linked it but now she has updated her site with a new article. 

It's kind of goofy that she doesn't keep the old one, but that's how she does it I guess.  Obviously the title I have in my link doesn't go with that article that is there. No doubt that you didn't read it earlier or you would have noticed the change.  If you Google the title there are many other places that link to that article and now it's different.  

Strange that I had to go to another site to get it

84% say they'd never lie to a pollster.  

probably a waste of time - you won't read it and just make some obnoxious comment as if you had like before.  

Ok Dee

I will take 50 percent blame for this, come on, R1 had to go another site to find it.

Us Libs aren' smart enough to find things on our own :-)

Yes I read your article, and I believe it or not, when you aren't mean and snarky I take what you say very seriously.

Same with BT. I think she  has more knowledge about who is who in the political arena  and what meetings were held with whom and what was discussed than 90 percent of the members here. I just like a decent debate instead of name calling that is all.

Good night.

Real life video games are cool

Dee

Yeah, tell me about it.

And he had the nerve just now to make a snide post, implying that all I ever do around here is just interject on the boards as a way of hawking my music and my thongs/Shywear.

The nerve. 

NOW PLAYING:
Governor Palin Get Your Gun

 

Shy this is very difficult for me to say

without it sounding a 10 out of 10 on the gay meter, but I can never stay mad at you, you make me laugh too much :-)

Real life video games are cool

Mr Shy

Why is it, that you just love to get in the middle when I am having a debate with someone and want to somehow start a pile on. Oh wait....Never mind.

Real life video games are cool

tsk tsk Shawn

And you never contributed a post to that forum. Come to think of it, no one did. :(

Lot's of love here at NB.... lots of love... :(

*more frowny faces*

Now go be a good NB friend and support me. You'll be making yourself more useful doing that than being Mr. Devil's Advocate all the time on the boards. :p 

 

NOW PLAYING:
Governor Palin Get Your Gun

 

Well Shy

When you are trying to sell product and undergarments, you gotta do what you have to do. If getting people to pile on me helps get you there, well this is America :-)

Real life video games are cool

shawn

Now yer talkin' !!!

:) 

NOW PLAYING:
Governor Palin Get Your Gun

 

Shy - don't mind Shawn - he's always in the gutter

with cheap shots.  He's the biggest buttinski there is.  He camps out here just to cause trouble.  He thinks he should be able to decide who can say what & when they can say it. He thinks it's his site.

Everyone sees his nasty comments for what they are so please don't let his crude hateful stuff get to you.   You are a good decent person and everyone knows it.

Some great stuff about the Polls

This article is very good and comprehensive about the Dem strategy of polls. It's long but very good

 The Left's Big Blunder

For those who don't want to read the whole article - a nice summary of it is here

For all you Depressed Poll addicts

 

^^ My 2cents on POLLS!!

I hope you Google Masters can help me on some links!!

Ok.

Polls are DECEPTIVE AS HELL!!

1) What TIME of day are they taken?  What Demographic is home during Oprah??

2) What ZIP CODES are Called?  Anybody have a West and East "side of the Tracks" town??

3)  Who typically still has a LAND LINE anymore???  I have not had a land line in 10 years!!! Pollsters can't call CELL PHONES!!

4)  Poll "Weighting"???  If you look at Poll internals...the LIBERAL media will typically ask and insert into the FINAL results 10-30% more....wait for it...DEMOCRATS!!!  Pollsters will use VOTER REGISTRATION  numbers to get a PERCENTAGE of WHO and HOW MANY of a certain PARTY to WEIGH in the Poll!!!

That's just off the top of my head.

RUSH did a BIG Monologue on these FACTS on how Polls are conducted. 

Anybody with a RUSH 24/7 account can find it in the archives.

Ster. ^^

Shawn, YOU WERE RIGHT !!!!

Shawn was right, and I was wrong, about the polls. I predicted a big McCain/Palin landslide, and boasted to Shawn that the polls were all wrong.

I was wrong. I lose. 

 

You're the next contestant on...
THE MESSIAH IS... LEFT !!

 

Thank you Mr Shy

Just like Clear Thinker, thank you for keeping your word...You are a gentleman :-)

He had my vote

Elections

So, when will we stop these stupid, pointless exercises called elections?   They are a waste of money and after all since polls are 100% foolproof and completely flawless...

"THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING!!!  A WAR ON FREEWILL IS COMING!!!" - Nevermore, "Bittersweet Feast", from This Godless Endeavor (2005)

Unsane

I never said elections were a waste of time or polls are 100 percent foolproof. I said they are important because they can tell most of the time how a nation is feeling. A year ago, everyone thought the nominees would be Clinton and Guiliani.

Albeit, being a little tardy, Mr Shy kept his word and admitted the truth. The polls especially the Ramnussen poll were pretty much right on this election.

He had my vote

Shawn

  1. It's RASMUSSEN, not "Ramnussen"  ;-)
  2. Only Rasmussen was accurate, which sort of proves Dee's original point, since the other polls were inaccurate.  Take Rasmussen out of the discussion, and no poll was accurate. This is a case were you are BOTH right depending on the nuances of what you mean by "are the polls accurate?"
  3. Have a Merry Christmas & Happy New Year :-)

 

"Gov. Palin has been subjected to one of the most massive and dishonest pile-on smear attacks in the history of liberal media."  -- Lowell Ponte

Good morning FS

I hope you and your family are having a great day. Its nice watching the kids reaction when they are opening presents.

Here is the Real Clear Politics poll which shows most of the polls that matter just a few days before the election.

Yes some had Obama winning by more than he did, but there is also a 3-4% of margin of error as well.

Here is the Real Clear Politics electoral college poll as well.

Now many of of  Dee's links on her OT talk about polls that were done 2 months or longer prior the the actual election which are not that accurate.

McCAin was actually in the lead after the convention and the initial lift and excitement that Sarah Palin brought.

Like my earlier point to hbk, you don't have to know the actual score and long as you pick a winner.

In Vegas if you pick 20 games accurately you can win a lot of money. If you pick 50 races right, you could be rich, if you pick 500 races right.....well you get the picture :-)

 

 

He had my vote

I am still not sold and perhaps never will be

Then you have to ask yourself how those same polls did in previous elections and note how they do in future elections. 

Sorry.  Polls still do not supplant elections.  Polls are still meaningless.  Polls are still contraptions designed by human beings designed to predict human behavior.  That alone should be warning enough.  Or at least, it SHOULD be.   

"THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING!!!  A WAR ON FREEWILL IS COMING!!!" - Nevermore, "Bittersweet Feast", from This Godless Endeavor (2005)

Then you have to ask yourself how those same polls did in previo

"Then you have to ask yourself how those same polls did in previous elections and note how they do in future elections."

I have been interested in politics since Reagan was President and that is when I got interested in polls. Since that time polls have overall been pretty accurate. Reagan beat the polls in 80, but at the same time the polls were saying the race was tied, not that Carter would win. Reagan won convincingly in a landslide and Hillary beat the odds on New Hamphire, but there was a last minute tearing up by Clinton.

Yes polls have been wrong in the past, but they are right far more often than wrong. You have to admit that for the 08 election most polls called the winner in every state for President and congress about 90 percent of the time.

I guess, we will have to agree to disagree on this one, Again predicting Presidential elections are but a small part of polling, they are  also important for predicting attitudes for

  • Presidential approval rating
  • Gay Marriage
  • Stem Cell Research
  • Abortion

 

He had my vote

The Obsessive Devotion

You simply have a neurotic OBSESSIVE DEVOTION to polls. 

Polls do absolutely nothing.  Worse, you seem to ache to see the country governed by them.  I don't.  Because I really don't care how accurate people claim polls are - and if I took the time to research, I might find one or two out of the thousands out there who called this election accurately (and remember, past performance does not guarantee future results) - and they will probably be all wet in 2012.  Polls, whether you admit it or not - and you won't, so deep is your religious faith in them - are tools designed by human beings with the intent of decoding human behavior.  There is so much humanity in them to render them hopelessly inadequate that I no longer bother with them.  Ever wonder why I fall back on polling data so rarely on NB?   

This country needs to be run by people with spines, not legions of the wishy-washy that will be led by the nose by the day to day shifts in mood of people.   

"THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING!!!  A WAR ON FREEWILL IS COMING!!!" - Nevermore, "Bittersweet Feast", from This Godless Endeavor (2005)