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AP's Rugaber Virtually Alone in Cheering Nov. Retail Sales Others Call 'Disappointing'

By Tom Blumer | December 13, 2011 | 20:16

A  A
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Today's Advance Monthly Retails Sales Report for November from the Census Bureau came in with a seasonally and shopping-day adjusted 0.2% increase over October. Analysts expected 0.6%, and a whole host of them described the result as "disappointing," as shown here in a Google News Search for the past 24 hours on ["retail sales" disappoint"] (typed exactly as indicated between brackets; as of 6:40 p.m. ET, over 1,100 results were returned, but only about 400 are from after the report's release).

That didn't stop the Associated Press's Christopher Rugaber and the wire service's headline writers, in separate items at 11:44 a.m. and 3:05 p.m., from getting really close to in essence claiming, as Kevin Bacon's character Chip Diller did in "Animal House," that "all is well."

Story Continues Below Ad ↓

First, from 11:44 a.m. (bolds are mine throughout this post):

Retail sales rise for sixth straight month

The start of the crucial holiday shopping season in November helped fuel the sixth straight monthly increase in retail sales. Gift-buying Americans spent more on clothing and electronics, and sales of autos and furniture also rose.

Still, the overall gain was the smallest since June. Consumers pulled back on some purchases unrelated to holiday shopping, such as groceries and building materials.

Retail sales rose 0.2 percent in November, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That was lower than October's gain, which was revised up to show a 0.6 percent increase.

Even so, more spending on retail goods shows the economy is continuing to grow steadily, if slowly.

Then, 3:05 p.m., which incorporated news from two other government reports which were published later in the day:

Retail sales are helping economy grow consistently

Economic growth is picking up in the final three months of the year, fueled by higher consumer spending, rising business stockpiles and modest increases in hiring.

The start of the holiday shopping season in November helped produce the sixth straight monthly increase in retail sales. Gift-buying Americans spent more on clothing and electronics, and sales of autos and furniture also rose.

To be fair, Rugaber tempered the enthusiasm in later paragraphs. To be critical, those paragraphs are the ones less likely to be read by news readers or to be heard by radio listeners or TV viewers at subscribing AP outlets.

Here's just one contrasting of the tone found elsewhere from CNN Money:

Retail sales rise, but disappoint

Retail sales picked up in November ... but not by much. The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that retail sales were up 0.2% compared to October, growth that fell well short of the 0.6% increase forecast by economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

The story was similar when auto sales were excluded. Those sales increased by only 0.2%, well off the 0.5% forecast.

The disappointing numbers do not bode well for retailers that depend on strong holiday sales -- despite a recent wave of optimism in the industry.

Black Friday shoppers showed up in droves and spent a record amount of money over the Thanksgiving weekend -- but that doesn't mean holiday sales momentum will continue through Christmas.

One commentator indicated that today's report provides reason to believe that fourth-quarter growth, which many have been thinking will be an annualized 3% or greater, will be more like 2.5%.

All is not well, Chris, even you do work for the Administration's, er, the Associated Press.

Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.

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Comments

Your article about the war on

Submitted by derbal on Tue, 12/13/2011 - 8:20pm.

Your article about the war on Christmas is titled "The War On The War On Christmas". Come on.

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Your comment belongs elsewhere ...

Submitted by Tom Blumer on Tue, 12/13/2011 - 8:44pm.

... but since you're in the neighborhood, there is war (i.e., a pushback) against those who are waging a war on Christmas, i.e., trying to marginalize Christmas and religion from the Christmas season.

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Welcome to NewsBusters, troll

Submitted by Dave. on Tue, 12/13/2011 - 9:06pm.

Your NB account is five years and 38 weeks old, yet the first of your total of five posts here was twelve weeks ago.

Not only that, but your aim is somewhat lacking, as the thread you refer to was not posted by Mr. Blumer.

Perhaps you should try posting before you fire up the bong.

-Dave

Vote for the American in November

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Dave, he can't find the computer down in mom's basement

Submitted by UpNorth on Tue, 12/13/2011 - 9:16pm.

unless he hits the bong, first. 

To re-elect Obama would be like the Titanic backing up and hitting the iceberg again.
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Bro..............like.....uhh

Submitted by killa37 on Tue, 12/13/2011 - 9:21pm.

Bro..............like.....uhhh............heavy,man......................I mean...................wow............you guys are sooooooooo.....................
negative.................I'm trippin', dude............you're bummin' me out....................mellow out, homies..................it's cool.............
it's all G.............I'm chill.......................don't be so uptight............

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UN and killa,

Submitted by Dave. on Tue, 12/13/2011 - 9:49pm.

Maybe the cheese from his Hot Pocket spilled out onto his keyboard, and he just now got a replacement for it. 

Hey, it could happen. ;-)

-Dave

Vote for the American in November

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Good evening Dave

Submitted by cocodrie on Tue, 12/13/2011 - 9:23pm.

Go easy, you're talking to Bawney Fwank's gerbil. He's disoriented and can't remember how to spell his name or where he is.

 

Jesus Loves You so much He died for you

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Hi, coco

Submitted by Dave. on Tue, 12/13/2011 - 9:34pm.

ROFL!

-Dave

Vote for the American in November

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My apologies for being a

Submitted by derbal on Tue, 12/13/2011 - 10:22pm.

My apologies for being a butthead.

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Ahhh, you know, Beavis - we

Submitted by killa37 on Wed, 12/14/2011 - 12:10am.

Ahhh, you know, Beavis - we just like to have a little fun around here once in a while - the only posters that get in trouble are the ones that take themselves too seriously, but can't back it up.

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Apologies

Submitted by Boudin on Wed, 12/14/2011 - 1:23am.

Accepted, and forgiven

Seek Truth, Defend Liberty
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Tom

Submitted by bkeyser on Tue, 12/13/2011 - 10:06pm.

Any new data relative to holiday shopping yet? It seems the media was out in force right after Black Friday claiming it to be one of the greatest in recent memory and likely a harbinger of a much improved holiday shopping season. They've been strangely quiet on this front since though, and I don't know if that's simply due to the unavailability/incomplete nature of the data, or if signs are pointing to an "unexpected" drop in retail sales.

Also, did you see the NAR's take on home sales? Five years worth of embellished figures? I've read numerous posts of yours here about how the AP (usually) and Reuters like to talk up home sales and yet the data consistently shows historic lows. If those lows were low, how low can they go? Just how bad is the housing market?

It makes you wonder just how often we're staring at data that has either been manipulated or misrepresented over the last several years; it's coming to the point when the government (and I know NAR is not government, but they might as well be) will start saying, "Who you gonna believe, [us] or your lying eyes?"

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To respond

Submitted by Tom Blumer on Tue, 12/13/2011 - 10:24pm.

1. I think Christmas season sales are skewing more towards big days on Black Friday and Christmas Eve and less in between. From what I've seen (obviously limited) the last two weekends were not impressive.

2. The NAR is existing home sales, which are important but nowhere near as important as new home sales. Existing sales are asset transfers (though the more of them there are, the better the home-improvement industry and stores do), while new sales are the result of production.

The NAR is a private group which has just really embarrassed itself. Their FUBAR doesn't affect new sales, which are reported by the Census Bureau.

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Tom

Submitted by bkeyser on Tue, 12/13/2011 - 10:47pm.

Thanks for the reply.

As for existing sales not being as important as new home sales - I get that, certainly from an employment perspective. But if existing homes are not selling as they said, does that indicate a greater inventory and thus drag down further new home sales? From personal experience, I know that as the Architect for a new home builder during the 2000's decade, we wouldn't even consider a contingent contract -selling the current home in order to buy the new custom home was never a problem. I can imagine now, however, that almost all builders will entertain contingent contracts, which is likely why permit applications are considerably higher than actual closings on new homes.

Another example of this was BRAC. We had several neighborhoods within miles of Fort Meade -which, if you're up on BRAC, you'll know was a huge benefactor of the relocation effort. We were selling custom homes on one acre lots for anywhere from $1.5 to well over $2M at the time so military and defense department personnel certainly weren't in the market for our product, but they would be displacing people who would be, or at least displacing people who would displace other people who could afford our product. We relied heavily on the sales of existing homes to provide not only the reason for someone buying our product, but for someone having enough capital to secure the loan and financing certain custom elements that may not be covered under the loan program.

I'm not saying these numbers will result in a similar report for new home sales, but they might help explain further why new home sales have been so utterly poor and continue to ride along the bottom.

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In the sense ...

Submitted by Tom Blumer on Tue, 12/13/2011 - 11:22pm.

... that activity across the board is lower than we originally thought, that's a good point.

There are people who say that brisk existing home sales indicate that there is more economic mobility and company transfers going on, so to that extent the higher the number, the healthier the economy might be.

And yes, if there is a glut of existing homes, then prices go down, to the point where buying used, so to speak, looks more attractive than buying new, which hurts the new-home market. That is actually an element of what's happening now, esp with a lot of the existing market being relatively cheap to buy foreclosures. What's missing in the reporting is that the administration is largely responsible for why the market is as messed up as it is.

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So true

Submitted by bkeyser on Wed, 12/14/2011 - 12:21pm.

The temporary and largely worthless props used by this administration in the housing market have helped prevent the bottoming out, instead dredging a deeper and deeper crater.

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I read there was historical

Submitted by TerryWest on Wed, 12/14/2011 - 1:00am.

I read there was historical spending! hours before the doors even closed on black Friday.
live reporters with pom poms in hand cheering over the massive crowds and spending, clearly there was an dishonest attempt to manipulate.
I don't think those who engage in it even care when the real numbers come out if just a few buy into the phony hype and deception.

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