CNN Email Alert Cites 'Surge' in New Home Sales -- To Worst December on Record
To those who follow the news fairly closely and look at underlying reports, CNN's email alerts are sometimes entertaining. Much less frequently are the accurate and informative.
Even though they tend not to realize it, those who don't follow the news closely and attempt to stay informed by relying on CNN's alerts are regularly deceived by the network that used to call itself "the most trusted name in news."
An example of such deception arrived in my e-mail box yesterday:
This is what CNN called a "surge" (source):
For the record, the pathetic total of 22,000 homes actually sold in December was a tiny, incremental improvement over November, which was the worst single month in the 48 years the Census Bureau has been tracking these things. December's total was still the worst December on record (the previous worst December was in 1966). 2010 as a whole was the worst year for new home sales, even before adjustment for population increases, since World War II.
Although I can see how a 2,000-unit increase in monthly sales can create the increase noted after seasonal adjustment, calling the worst December in the 48 years of Census Bureau recordkeeping a "surge" is ridiculous, as is not telling readers that the figure is seasonally adjusted. "Dead cat bounce" might be a more accurate description.
If the surge in Iraq had worked like this, our soldiers would have been flying white flags of surrender several years ago.
Relatively disengaged CNN email alert readers will have no idea of the realities stated in this post. That's not an accident.
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
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Comments
New home sales
Submitted by bkeyser on Thu, 01/27/2011 - 4:33pm.
I saw Shep touting this yesterday as the reason the market skirted with 12,000. Of course I changed the channel after a few of his sarcastic snits, but he -and others, I saw a Yahoo news headline about this also- were clearly trying to draw attention to it.
I know having been in the housing industry for the last 18 years that -in this area, at least- December/January usually shows an uptick in new home sales. This puts starts in the February/March timeframe usually, and move-in toward summer's end, right before school begins. At least for the majority of track builder-type homes. Most of what I've been designing and building during that span were larger and more custom which can take anywhere from 12 months 16 months to construct- so our peak sales were usually May thru July.
Anyway, at least for Maryland, you'd expect to see a noticable increase in sales around this time of year. But I'll bet the NV/Ryan, DR Horton, KHov, and Lennar weren't so thrilled about the news.
In fact, a quick Google search produced this news about DR Horton:
4th UPDATE: D.R. Horton Swings To 1Q Loss Amid Lower RevenueI'd expect the others to follow suit.
Now there you go again...
Submitted by Cowboy on Fri, 01/28/2011 - 12:53am.
Now there you go again... bringing up reality.
It's like claiming the Dow went up because of Obama's speech...
home sales
Submitted by clovefrance on Thu, 03/31/2011 - 1:29am.
The housing sector saw an increase in pending home sales last month, but not as much as the decrease in pending household sales the month before. Inflation driven by increasing food and energy prices canceled out a reported increase in February consumer spending. The modest increase in these two economic indicators boosted stocks, and some analysts think increasing affordability may sustain the positive trend in pending household sales . Perhaps soon more individuals will be able to get more unsecured loans for houses.
The weak housing market is
Submitted by Olivia Smith on Fri, 05/20/2011 - 6:55am.
The weak housing market is one of the main obstacles to a surge in growth this year identified by members of the Fed’s rate-setting open market committee. The high stock of unsold homes and those in the pipeline for foreclosure means that there is little incentive for new building. That has a direct effect on output and slows the recovery in the labour market. The overhang in the housing market also holds back any increase in house prices, which deters the resale of homes, and also hampers the confidence of consumers who have lost housing wealth during the recession and even need to apply for cash loans now. The FOMC is likely to upgrade its growth outlook, however, to reflect the new fiscal stimulus agreed by President Barack Obama in December and a slowdown in private debt repayments that increases funds available for consumption.